Anastasios Margaronis
Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions
Thank you, Simeon, and welcome to all who are participating in this mid-summer quarterly conference call of Diana Shipping. For us, this is a particularly important and special conference call as our Chairman and CEO has recovered from his COVID-19 illness and is once again leading the Diana Shipping Inc. management. Looking at the earnings of the first half of this year of bulk carriers, it's interesting to note the wide oscillations of daily earnings during the first half. According to Gibson Shipbrokers, the Capesize Baltic 5 PP rate on June 30 was US$30,857 which was up from US$3,369 on May 29. The BDI started the year at 976 and closed on Friday the 24 of July at 1,317. The Baltic Cape Index was at 1,646 on January 2, and closed last Friday at 2,084. The Baltic Panamax Index moved from 1,003 at the beginning of the year to 1, 198 last Friday. Looking at the macro economic development. According to figures issued by the IMF recently, global GDP growth is expected to drop by about 4.9% this year. Growth of 5.4% is expected to return in 2021, assuming always that COVID-19 pandemic will be reasonably contained by them. European GDP growth is expected to drop 10.2% this year, and increase by 6% in 2021. The Chinese GDP growth is expected to increase by 1% in 2020 and by 8.2% next year. Projections for the United States are that GDP growth will be minus 8% this year and plus 4.5% in 2021. Turning to supply and demand. According to Clarkson, seaborne dry bulk trade is projected to decline by about 4.1% in ton mile in 2020. If this materializes, this will be a steeper drop than what was seen in 2009 following the financial crisis. On the supply side, Bulk fleet growth is projected to come in at modest 2.4% this year, which under normal circumstances would be very easy to manage the rate of fleet growth. Looking at the demand forecast further on in this short presentation, the near-term challenges facing the bulk carrier market will become apparent. Still on the supply side, the slower operating speeds and the impact of ships taking time out to service for scrubber retrofitting will absorb some supply, but they're not expected to be sufficient to provide significant market support. For 2021, Clarksons predicts that the bulk carrier fleet will increase by only 1.3%. The Cape fleet of 100,000 plus deadweight will increase by 2% this year, and 0.7% in 2021, while the Panamax fleet is forecasted to increase by 3.6% this year, and by 2.4% in 2021. According to Banchero Costa, about 89, Capes, and VLOCs are expected to be delivered in 2020 after taking into consideration the possible slippage due to prevailing circumstances caused by the pandemic. In the first five months of 2020, about 21 such vessels were scrapped. During the first five months of this year, there were 25 net additions to the fleet, representing about 6.14 million deadweight in this sector of the bulk carrier fleet. For the whole year 2020, the Cape and VLOC fleet is expected to grow by 4%, while for 2021 growth is expected to be 3%. Fleet growth could be even slower in 2021 according to Clarkson’s Platou, giving support to dry bulk earnings. In the first five months of 2020, Banchero Costa reported about eight such units were ordered, which were 4 Newcastlemaxes. In this size range, 4% of the trading fleet is over 20 years old, while 9% is between 15 and 19 years old. All these shifts are potential scrapping candidates in a poor earnings environment. As for Panamaxes and post Panamaxes, Banchero Costa expects 150 units to be delivered this year, totaling 12.5 million deadweight after accounting for slippage. On the demand side, the second half of this year, would according to Clarkson’s see more positive market trends on the back of improving Brazilian ore supply, encouraging economic growth in China, and other seasonal factors. Nevertheless, we should always keep in mind that the dry bulk market remains exposed to impact from severe global economic recession this year. Initial projections for 2021 suggests a rebound in dry bulk ton mile trade growth of about 5.5% with fleet growth of just 1.3%. Turning to the new building order book, according to Clarkson's as of July this year, they were at 686 bulk carriers on order with a total 66.9 million deadweight This represents 7.4% of the total fleet. Within these figures are 153K and larger vessels of 34.5 million deadweight representing 9.7% of the existing fleet. Also included are 195 Panamax and post-Panamax vessels of 16.2 million deadweight representing 7.2% of the existing fleet. Most of these ships will be delivered during this year and in 2021. From 2022 onwards, the order book is very light, with only 5.3 million deadweight of capes and 1.5 million deadweight of Panamax’s, post Panamax is scheduled for delivery as of today. As expected, ordering of all types of bulk carrier vessels went down during the first half of this year, quite dramatically. For Capes, orders were down 63% year-on-year, and for Panamax’s and post Panamax is by about 87%. No doubt, this bodes well for supply 18 months down the road from now.1 As far as asset prices, according to Clarkson's the both new building and second-hand prices have been going down this year. Capesize and Panamax newbuilding prices have come down by about 7%. 10 and 15-year old vessels have seen their prices drop by even more. Turning to the main commodities, and starting with iron ore seaborne trade is expected to remain steady at about 1.45 billion metric tons this year. While for next year, Clarkson’s forecast growth of 1%, an increase of around 20 million tonnes for the year compared to 2020. Chinese imports are expected to grow by 3% to 4% and reach 1 billion 08 6 million tonnes this year, while imports from all other importing nations are expected to drop by total of 10% this year. These projections assume that Chinese demand will be sufficient to absorb by about 40 million tonnes possibly more of cargoes re-directed from other destinations. If these projections materialize, China could once again achieve the iron ore from the worst impacts of COVID-19. Total steel output in China between January and May this year came to 411 million tonnes, which was 1.7% up compared to the same period in 2019. It is worth noting though that does bring my points out. Despite steel production being strong in June, there has been a small uptick in Chinese iron ore inventories following a sustained draw down that began at the end of the first quarter. It could therefore be argued that iron ore imports have finally caught up with demand from steel mills, and shipments are being used to replenish stocks. As for coking coal, according to Clarkson, total coking coal exports are anticipated to drop 10% this year, and increase by 8% in 2021, and reach 264 million tonnes. Obviously, these projections are very much dependent on how the global economy will recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. On thermal coal, Clarkson's predicts the total exports of thermal coal to drop by 7% this year and increase by 4% in 2021 to reach 983 million tonnes. These figures are reflected in the Indonesian coal exports, where this year exports are projected to drop by 7% mainly due to the drop in demand from India. Coal stockpile at the important [Indiscernible] ports were down in July by 14% compared to the same time last year, and the three major coastal coal plants in China had 8 million tonnes less coal stocked away compared to this time last year. This translates to about 6% year-on-year. So from the point of view of stocks, there is room for increased shipments to China. According to Banchero Costa, total thermal coal and lignite imports to China, between January and May 2020 were 133.7 million tonnes. This was 36.8% higher than during the same period in 2019. Turning to grain imports, shipments of grain products during 2020 grain season are expected to increase by 4% this year and by further 3% in 2021. If these increases materialize, then total grain imports will reach 508 million tonnes next year. According to Clarkson's, assuming the U.S. China trade relations remain constructive, Chinese soybean imports this year could be on track to reach 95.1 million tonnes which was a record last seen in 2017. However, recent deterioration in the U.S. China diplomatic relations is not very encouraging. Looking at the minor bulk trade, we mentioned the Clarkson's projections on seaborne trade of agricultural products, minerals as well as products like cement, salt, petcoke, fertilizers and sulfur because large fluctuations in their demand influence the Panamax trade. [Indiscernible] trade is one of the parts of the dry bulk trade most exposed to the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Clarkson’s predicts that this trade will shrink 7% this year and expand by 8% in 2021. A short comment on scrubbers now; According to Clarkson’s as of early June this year, there were about 30 vessels of about 4.3 million deadweight, or 0.5% of fleet capacity undergoing retrofit work compared to 116 vessels doing the same thing at the start of the year. The reasons for this decline are not entirely clear, however, it could be argued that the drop was used to yard closures and surveys delays because of the effects of the pandemic. Alternatively, it might be the case that we are reaching the tail end of this retrofit exercise as price differential comes down between high and low sulfur fuel. Owners are reassessing their decisions as to whether or not to go ahead with plans to fix scrubbers to the west. This price differential has been hovering between $60 and $70 per tonne recently and there is no good reason for this to increase in the near future unless bunker prices increase significantly. For a modern large bulker, K4 Newcastle max, consuming about 36 tonnes per day and the spending an average of about 250 days a year at sea, the saving assuming the owner receives 100% there-off would be about $585,000 per annum. Assuming the cost of the scrubber and the lost earnings deficit are in the region of 3.5 million for such a ship, it is easy to see that it will take about six years for the owner to receive his money back from this investment. This calculation does not include possibly profits from any bunker hedging contracts. However, note that this includes the technical problems an owner may encounter over that period. The fact that it is highly unlikely that a charter will give the entire fuel savings to the owner and most importantly, but after six years, the ship will carry a piece of machinery which in no likelihood will be technical and commercially obsolete, and -- zero residual value. By extrapolation, we can easily understand, but in the case of a scrubber being fitted in a smaller ship, such as a Panamax or Kamsarmax bulker, consuming only about 25 tonnes per day, the scrubber would make the money invested in buying and fitting it in about eight years as long as such low cost differential prevails. According to Clarkson’s, the time chart daily earnings differential for a case between the scrubber fitted ship and one without, stood at around 1950 per day in late June. For Panamax, the difference in earnings was about $900 per day. Turning to scrapping. Panamax and post-Panamax supplies range 9% of the trading deal is over 20 years old, and 12% is between 15 and 19 years old. Not surprisingly, the classic Panamax’s in this size range are by far the oldest ships in the sector. About [Indiscernible] is over 15 years old. According to Braemar, 36 Capes exited the trading fleet during the first half of the year, bringing fleet growth of the sector so far this year to only 1.5%. Most of these vessels going for scrap were converted ore carriers. There were also 19 standard Capes which were scrapped during the same period. According to Clarkson’s during the entire year 2020, about 33.4 million deadweight worth of bulk carrier capacity might be scrapped. In 2019, not more than 20 million deadweight headed for the scrapyard. Finally, the outlook. According to Commodore Research, the current strength in the Cape size market could be reversed, if countries like Brazil and India face even larger problems due to the pandemic resulting for example, in the disruption of mining operations in Brazil. Commodore Research are bullish on the entire dry bulk carrier market and particularly the Capes at least for the rest of the year, and early next year. They stress at the greatest risk this bullish scenario is what we have been spreading all along, which is a development of the Coronavirus pandemic. The United States, Brazil and India remain the nation's causing the largest number of new daily Coronavirus case. This will have to change if the optimistic scenario about the bulk market is to materialize. Therefore, why forecasting shipping rate has always been difficult, the prevailing circumstances make it nearly impossible. Without the COVID-19 resurgence, the bulk carrier market would steadily increase through the rest of the year and into next year supported by strong iron ore and grain shipment. Support should also come longer term from the greatly reduced ordering, which we have been witnessing over the last few quarters, and which is expected to continue into 2021. Sentiments will as usual play its important role here. The greater the pessimism in the market, the stronger and longer the recovery will be. If optimism suddenly returns, then the recovery we are hoping for will come but will not last longer than the time it takes for the fresh batch of new buildings to hit the water. So the Diana Management team will take advantage of these conditions by continuing to sell over their tonnage and applying the proceed to one, buy back company shares which are trading at a substantial discount to NAV; B, reducing debt or C, keeping the cash in reserve to face a possible periods of weak earnings, and raise the cover sheet values will go up with earnings together with share price, then we will have to shift gear and consider again dividends and prudent equity raising. I will now pass the call over to our CFO, Ioannis Zafirakis who will provide us with the financial highlights of the second quarter and first half of this year. Thank you.