Anastasios Margaronis
Analyst · Randy Giveans with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Simeon and welcome to all of the participants in this mid-summer second quarter presentation of Diana Shipping Inc. Looking at the Baltic Exchange indices as we usually do, between the beginning of the year and July 26 provides us a good picture of the volatility prevailing in the bulk carrier market these days. On January 2, the Baltic Dry Index stood at 1,282 and on July 26, it closed at 1,937. The Baltic Panamax Index went from 1,391 to 2,109. And the Baltic Cape Index started the year at 1,987 and ended on July 26 at 3,647. Starting with macroeconomic developments. According to the IMF, the world GDP is expected to grow by 3.3% this year and 3.6% in 2020. U.S. GDP growth was estimated to be 2.3% this year and only 1.9% growth in 2020. Total Central and Eastern European growth is estimated at 0.8% this year and 2.8% next. On the supply side, according to Clarksons, the bulk carrier fleet capacity currently projected to grow by 2.5% in deadweight terms during 2019. Bulk carrier fleet growth in 2020 is currently projected to remain fairly steady at around 2.4%, potentially allowing for some gradually rebalancing with the effect of the implementation of the IMO 2020 sulfur cap potentially having a positive effect on the market. On the demand side, global seaborne dry bulk trade is currently projected to expand by only 1.3% this year to reach 5.3 billion tons with the iron ore trade projected to decline by around 3% in ton miles and 2% by volume due to disruption to Brazilian and Australian shipments in the year so far. Looking ahead to 2020, initial projections suggest that seaborne dry bulk trade volumes to grow by around 2.3% next year, around 3.1% in ton miles with uncertainty over the growth outlook for a number of commodities. Looking at steel. According to Commodore Research during the first five months of this year, world crude steel output excluding China contracted by 0.3%. However, during the same period, crude steel output in China grew by 9.6%. Steel output in the U.S. also jumped by about 8% during the first five months of 2019. Among the poorest performing major steel producers recently have been Japan and the European Union. European group steel production declined by 4% year-on-year in the first four months of this year, Howe Robinson's report strong steel prices in China due to government orders to cut production in the city of Tangshan in a bid to reduce pollution. Iron ore. As mentioned earlier on a global basis imports of iron ore are estimated by Clarksons to drop by 2% this year. Next year they're expected to grow by 1%. Chinese imports of iron ore during the first five months of this year were down 5% year-on-year. However it is worth noting that iron ore stockpiles in Chinese ports fell below a 120 million tons in March for the first time in 2.5 years and have kept falling for several weeks since then. Coking coal. On a worldwide basis, exports of coking coal are expected to increase by 1% this year and by 2% in 2020. It is currently projected by Clarksons that China's seaborne coking coal import will remain fairly steady at around 39 million tons in 2019. On thermal coal according to Clarksons overall global seaborne thermal coal trade is projected to expand this year by only five million tons as weaker imports into China, South Korea the European Union are expected to roughly balanced in growth in a range of other developing countries and markets. In 2020 volumes might increase by 1% to reach 1.013 billion tons. Stockpiles of coal at the port of Qingdao stood at 5.4 million at the end of June which was down 19% from a year ago. Similar drops in power plant stockpile were witnessed in June with 17.8 million tons of stockpile which was 19% down to the same period last year. As regard to grain cargoes now. Again Clarkson's report that total imports of grain products are expected to rise this year by 1% and reach 477 million tons. While in 2020 the forecast is for a further 2% increase and volume of 486 million tons. For the first five months of this year, Chinese imports of soybean dropped to 31.5 million tons down 12% year-on-year. The drop reflects a continued disruption to the U.S./China soybean trade as a result of the well-publicized trade war and the slower ramp-up in Brazil of the soybean import during the current harvest than was seen last year. As regard to earnings, after showing considerable weakness earlier this year capesize rates started moving upwards mainly in Brazil and South Africa especially on routes to Asia. Gains in the Pacific and Transatlantic routes followed at a slower pace. Average 12-month time charter earnings for capes stand at around $21,500 a day. In April of this year this rate was around $14,000 per day. Panamaxes can now be fixed at an average of $15,000 per day. While last April they could only be fixed at around $9500 per day. For Kamsarmax’s rates are about $1,500 per day higher. These rates provide an indication of the turnaround witnessed in the market for large bulk carriers since last spring. To place into perspective the earnings weakness experienced earlier this area is working out in that -- during the first five months of the year according to Banchero Costa, Panamax time charter hire rate averaged only $7,940 per day. This was 28% down compared to the same period in 2018. For capes, during the same period this year, time charter rates averaged about 8,880 per day which was 34% lower compared to the same period last year. Turning to demolition now. According to Banchero Costa, bulk carrier demolition during 2019 is expected to reach 14 million tons deadweight. In 2020 this is expected to grow to 17 million deadweight. In 2021, we project scrapping to jump even higher and reach 19 million deadweight. Clarksons observed that the recycling yard today seems to be happy to wait for rates to fall, despite the clear lack of tonnage in the market. In our view this might result in panic buying when one of the pack breaks ranks and buys tonnage for recycling. Then out of fear that they might be left without tonnage to scrape the rest move in and bid prices much higher than they would otherwise be. Latest price levels are in the region of $445 per light displacement ton. According to Banchero Costa demolition of Capes and VLOCs is expected to reach 54 units, having an aggregate of 9.3 million deadweight, from a low of 2.8 million in 2018. The reasons according to these analysts are disappointing market conditions witnessed earlier this year, the implementation of the balance water and low sulfur regulation as well as scheduled fleet replacement. Even though 22 ships were scrapped during the first five months of this year, we doubt very much that the total figure of 54 mentioned above will be reached if today's market conditions are maintained for the rest of the year. As regard to the new building order book. According to Clarkson there are 933 bulk carriers on order with a total deadweight of 99.5 million. This represents 11.2% of the existing fleet. On the Capes the tonnage on order is 50 million representing 14.7% of the trading fleet today. As for Panamax the 23.8 million deadweight on order at the equivalence of just 11.2% of the fleet. Let's look at fleet growth now. According to Banchero Costa the fleet of Panamax and post-Panamax vessels grew 3% in 2018. This year it is estimated to grow by 5% and in 2020 by 4%. These higher numbers might be the result of low demolitions particularly during 2018. In this size range, 8% of the trading fleet is over 20 years old, the 11% is 15 to 19 years old whilst 19% is less than five years old. Cape and VLOCs grew 4% last year and are expected to grow by 2% this year and by 4% in 2020. This slowdown might be attributed to increase scrapping according to Banchero Costa. In this size range, 4% of the trading fleet is over 20 years old, 8% between 15 and 19 years old and 20% is less than 5 years old. I cannot avoid saying a few words about scrubbers now that the implementation date of IMO 2020 low-sulfur fuel is just around the corner. According to Gibson from 2,779 Panamax is trading today that number includes Kamsarmax. Only 118 vessels have either fitted scrubbers or are planning to do so. This is just [Technical Difficulty] As for Capes of the 1,274 vessels trading about 129 vessels have either have scrubbers fitted or are planning to fit them later this year. This is about 10% by numbers. These numbers are not expected to change dramatically when new buildings are taken into consideration. So all-in-all we're led to the conclusion that there will be plentiful supply of low-sulfur fuel available around the world from January next year onwards. In order to avoid free growing commerce and [indiscernible] this development should eventually lead to reduction in the price differential between high and low-sulfur fuel. Turning to the outlook for our industry. Gibson Shipbrokers see more available cargoes and less available tonnage in the near-term. The great unknown is as usual commodity demand. Looking at China all the coal demand has fallen. Demand for iron ore has remained stable. Chinese mills have been buying iron ore from stockpiles where prices have been cheaper in quant terms and these stocks will need to be replenished. According to Gibsons there are enough positive factors that play to justify a positive outlook as we're moving to the second half of this year and more importantly further improvements are expected in 2020. According to Commodore Research, iron ore export prospectus are very promising for the rest of the year. Brazilian and Australian iron ore exports are expected to increase, while at the same time Chinese steel output is expected to remain robust and China's iron ore port stockpiles have continued to plummet. So generally speaking shipping analysts are as confident about future trends in the bulk area market as they have been for a while now. We agree with these forecast but need to remind ourselves that there are various unknowns out there which might ruin this rosy picture that most analysts are presenting for the bulk carrier market. Tension in the Middle East and the by now infamous trade war which will have to be resolved soon would escalate in further improving and affect demand for shipping transportation of raw material. As we have mentioned on several occasions in the past, Diana Shipping's management intend to continue with the sales of older tonnage in the fleet and apply the proceeds in the best possible way to enhance shareholder value and strengthen even further the company's balance sheet. Now, I will pass the call to our CFO, Andreas Michalopoulos, who will present the financial highlights for the second quarter and the first half of this year. Thank you.