Tom Healy
Analyst · KeyBanc. Your question, please
Sure. Just at a high level, when we look at the pace, we have been comparing, I think, the first half of 2021 is going to behave like the second half of 2020. So we are heavily focused on Q3 and Q4 and what we can salvage and what we can shift into those months. On a positive note, we have about 78,000 room nights on the books for Q4. And to compare that to 2019, we had 79,000 group room nights on the books for 2019. So that that bodes well. Now you have heard a lot of people talk about ghost cancels and groups waiting to get inside their contract terms and to use force majeure to get out of their contracts. So we have had a lot of that in Q4. As Mark mentioned, we had some significant cancels in Q4 for Q4 and also for the 2021. And much of the cancels that occurred in Q4 for 2021, were in the first half of the year. So once again, that goes back to the point we are focusing on Q3, Q4, which are holding up. And 2022 looks very positive right now. 2022, we have about 268,000 rooms on the books. That's up from 217,000 rooms when we spoke last quarter. To give you to give you an idea, we actually had in the quarter, we had about 700,000 room nights prospects come up for future months. So that's extremely positive. Some Cvent trends that we have been monitoring is January momentum kept up through the month. The last three weeks were the highest in the U.S. since March. Awarded RFPs were up week-over-week, each week in January and into February. So momentum looks strong there. The last two weeks of January, the average booking window improved almost back to pre-COVID booking window levels, larger meetings of 100 rooms or more are growing in share. We continue to shift toward second half of 2021 and 2022 arrival dates, which looks very positive. We are seeing the bookings even through Cvent shift in the same way we are seeing them at the property level. And generally, the booking window is back to normal. The largest market, demand is still down, pace is about 44% for 2021 and 58% for 2022 and then rate are positive year-over-year for 2022. And social, leisure and education still showing the most strength in the segmentation based on what's coming. And there really are no significant changes with corporate pickup yet at this point. Not that we can see. But we know that corporate is very short term and it will come. To give you an example we had 525,000 rooms on the books in 2019 and then we finished the year at 777,000. So, we have picked up about 250,000 in the year for the year in 2019. That bodes well for us in the back half of this year and certainly as we get as we move into 2022. The other notes on 2022 are important. When we look at the citywide pace, Boston has about 362,000 room nights on the books. That is up 42%. To give you a benchmark, 2019 at the same time, we had 349,000 room nights on the books. So Boston's actually ahead of 2019's pace. Chicago has about 1.26 million rooms on the books. That's up 32%. Compared to 2019, which is another important metric, was 1.142 million. So Boston and Chicago's citywide pace are both up to 2019. As compared to like San Francisco, which has about 648,000 on the books. Now that shows that it's up significantly to prior year, but it's still down significantly to 2019 about 845,000. So DC is up 416,000 room nights on the books. That's up 48% compared to 2019, which was a 387,000. And then some other highlight markets that we were looking positive. San Diego's up about 739,000 rooms. That's up by 44% compared to 2019 at 732,000. So, it's a very positive, 2022 is shaping up to be pretty positive and we are seeing good activity in our portfolio.