Earnings Labs

DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Tue, Sep 3, 2019

$27.35

-3.90%

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Transcript

Riaan Davel

Management

Thank you very much, Niël. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, from my side, and thank you, Niël, for always providing the context through the operational update of what the financial review looks like. And yes, it is extremely pleasing results that it is my privilege to present this morning. I'm just taking what -- where Niël ended off with Ergo and Far West and taking those production numbers, volume yield gold into financial results. So year-on-year, you would see that the revenue increased by 3% in the last 6 months. That increase was closer to 9% whereof assisted by the gold price increase of about 8% and production of 1%. So very, very pleasing revenue results. And as I want to emphasize a couple of times what Niël has said just about the resilience of Ergo as a business. Cash operating costs, up 7% year-on-year. In the last 6 months to 6 months, up 4% and very much focused on looking at higher-grade material for the sand mills at Ergo and also at Knights, so which resulted in the increase in yield for that 6 months period of 6%. Then on the operating profit side, year-on-year, yes, there was a 20% decrease, but up 50% in the last 6 months. And just actually amazing what Ergo has done, the resilience of the business has shown. And I believe a very big part of the success, early success that we've seen at Far West is have Ergo as a mother ship, the knowledge and systems that Niël referred to and we've implemented there, we could very quickly going to implement. The number of data points, [Yaqoob] mentions to me, but it always boggles my mind that we look at on a continuous basis and trying to improve. And then for me…

Q - Arnold Van Graan

Operator

It's Arnold Van Graan from Nedbank. Two questions from my side. So the first one is Ergo volume. It's gone from just over 12 million tons to just over 11 million tons. And there's obvious issues that you faced, but is that the new normal, given the challenges of Eskom and all the other challenges you talk about, criminality and there's many others? Or will you be able to get back to that ZAR 12 million-plus run rate? So that's the first one. And the second one, sort of continuing Eskom angle is, what is the long -- what is your long-term solution for Eskom? And that essentially also goes into Phase 2 of your bigger project in West. Is there a solution or is there a solution that Eskom needs to be fixed? Or can you bring in an alternative? And can those ore body sustain that? In other words, can you pay for the capital of putting in an IPP project and still make a decent return? Niël Pretorius: Yes. Now those are good questions. I think Eskom for the -- not just for the industry but for the economy, is still the biggest systemic risk that we face in the long term. If there's no Eskom, there's no South African economy. That's our simple reality. There are other issues that we need to deal with, so society issues and so forth. But for the long term, I think Eskom and South Africa, whether or not there's a future, those things are -- those are words that belong in the same sentence. Let me deal with your first question first, though, Arnold. So this year, I think there were 3 key issues that informed volume throughput that were internal issues. So there was weather, and there was Eskom,…

Riaan Davel

Management

Niël, there's just 2 questions of -- from the webcast from [indiscernible]. Would you get you either view on the gold price and exchange rates for the next 12 months? If I can maybe just lead to this -- certainly we take a view on the gold price. We do various planning scenarios. And then, yes, we use forecasts -- economic forecasts at a point in time. So end of the year, maybe just we look at a -- at an average median forecasted price of just below ZAR 630,000. Beginning of August, that price would have probably -- from a forecast point of view, would have gone up to like ZAR 650,000. If you do it now, it might even be higher. But as Niël said, we don't take positions at the moment, take 3. So we, yes, move the price where it is. That's a -- it's a very good position for us. Niël Pretorius: If I could maybe add to that story.

Riaan Davel

Management

Please. Niël Pretorius: I think it's important that we distinguish between something that is driven by sentiment and something that's being supported by substance. And I think we can all find evidence that the gold price where it currently is, is very much supported by substance, the reasons why the gold price is why -- where it ought to be. But that doesn't necessarily mean that it is where it's at the moment because of substance. It might be there because of sentiment. So we can find evidence that it should be here and maybe even higher, but the market might just be acting on impulse. The market might be acting on amount of reasons. And I think that there is a new generation of investors who came in after 2008, who are used to cheap money, and where the stock exchange and investing on the stock exchange was like throwing at a dartboard was just -- yet consisted only of the bull. And there's an oversimplification, but I think that the market was very rewarding on a broad base over the last, I don't know, how many years when capital was just so cheap. And maybe that the skill of really understanding and analyzing and appreciating how everything's connected and how everything interacts with everything else globally, currency, energy, gold, investor fear, inflation, oversupply here and the supply there, et cetera, et cetera, I don't know how much of that is left in the post-2008 era. There's some of the old-timers who just called it, and they are quitting at the moment because they came in at the right time. If I say old-timer, I -- they're people sort of my age and older. But there's some these young geniuses that don't really understand the market. The market's been overly kind to them, and I think they lost. And the market with that amount of confusion sentiment, not withstanding the fact that substance is supportive of where it currently is. But sentiment could be dangerous, and that sentiment can change overnight. That can change very, really quickly. So I think it's important to be very cautious of planning on the basis of where the gold price is now. I think it's probably much higher than where it could be once sentiment changes. It's much lower when -- where it should be based on fundamentals. I'm a gold miner, so I need to believe in that, but it's probably much higher than where it could be if sentiment changes. And it can change overnight. One funny tweet from the Mr. Trump or, and you don't know maybe it's all the way back to 650, 620, and we need to be ready for that. So we will remain conservative. And hey, that's where the buying opportunity in the Audi Gold Stock comes in.

Riaan Davel

Management

Thanks, Niël. Then a second question from [Paul Schouten]. Far West made an operating profit of ZAR 99.8 million for the quarter. Would it be reasonable to expect this kind of number each quarter at an average gold price of ZAR 577,000 for the quarter? In other words, before any increase to the current price of approximately ZAR 750,000? Again, I will just start, Paul. Yes, so that quarter gives an indication of what Far West is capable of definitely. Just remember, the ZAR 577,000 is the price -- average price for the year. The quarter price was probably closer to ZAR 600,000, just over. So yes, you can definitely run sensitivities based on that quarter as a base, yes. Niël Pretorius: Good. All right. Thank you, everybody. Thank you once again for showing up and sharing just a few minutes with us. Is there nothing else? Okay. So we're going be hanging around for a while. Food is for free. And today, it really is for free, so please help yourselves. And let's not go home before we've eaten all those sandwiches. And the team will be here to answer your questions. Thanks.