Earnings Labs

DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Sep 6, 2018

$27.35

-3.90%

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Transcript

Riaan Davel

Management

Thank you very much, Niël, and thank you for setting the scene for the financial results, not hogging the spotlight on them. And good morning, ladies and gentlemen, from my side. Again, my privilege to take you through these results, which we are very proud of. As I said, Niël has set the scene brilliantly for us to talk through some of the trends on the financial side. Now the operating margin, a very healthy 14%. And remember, operating margin, margin of cash costs, say, to revenue. So in the context of revenue, remember, as Niël has alluded to, the gold price year-on-year was down by 3% for us. So the end of that are just 534,000. You'll see on the half – to half year reviews as well, we started off just under 550,000 for the first half and then that dropped to just over 520,000 per kilogram for the second half of the financial year 2018, which puts all the sort of half-year-on-half-year numbers into context. But still, a very healthy 14%, and 50% up on the prior year, and there was that decrease in gold price. So cash operating costs, as Niël has alluded to, we're very comfortable that management has worked very hard to have that under control. And that's also reflected in the cash operating costs per kilogram. And that is down 6% or under ZAR460,000 per kilogram; and as well as the all-in sustaining costs, just over ZAR500,000 per kilogram, also down 5% year-on-year. See, if I jump to all-in sustaining costs margin, again, the second half impacted by a lower gold price, but still, a 70% overall increase year-on-year in all-in sustaining costs margin. And as Niël said, a very important measure to measure the sustainability of an operation, as over and above…

A - Riaan Davel

Management

I'm just reading from the webcast now. Should any business need to protect margin at current rand gold price? Surely, good margin can be locked in. And then it says [indiscernible] ongoing hedging program of around 20% of that has been exceptional at good hedging prices. Surely DRD can adopt this too. Niël Pretorius: Look, we studied probably one of the most interesting case studies in hedging as part of the representations that we made to our board in setting up this current instrument. And we don't think that, based on the profile of our investor, on what the investment story is, the investment proposition is, we don't believe that we should set off taking full exposure from gold price. It is a cyclical business. And whilst some of the dynamics that drive gold price have changed, we do believe that there's a balance that's restored over time. And then a hedge that looks very clever now, it just turned out to be not so clever in three years or four years from now. So we don't have a hedging strategy, we have a risk management strategy to take liquidity risk or to protect us against potential liquidity risk having assumed a new obligation. But once that obligation has been discharged, our intention is to continue to take full exposure to the gold price because we believe that, that's the DRDGOLD investment story. And that offers the opportunity to generate returns on either side of the gold price cycle.

Riaan Davel

Management

Yes, Niël, there's a question on trading volumes, are very low. How can we get interest in the stock to pick up so that overhang can be cleared? Niël Pretorius: Especially in South Africa, I'm a little disappointed. I was surprised to see that 5,000 shares can move the share price 4% to 5% which is -- it's just silly. And -- but ultimately, we tell the story, and I think it's a good story. Ultimately, what happens in the stock market is it's pretty much up to the shareholders. I can't trade every day. We're in an open period again from tomorrow onwards. And that's when I can trade, and I think the market has seen that I've reinvested in the stock. And there's no reason for me to stop because I do think it's a good story and that the stock is certainly offering some upside at this stage, depending on where you spend with gold price. My sentiment insofar as gold price is concerned is that in the long term, two, three, four, five years, it's going to start moving again, international gold price. But the shareholders are in control of the share. We're in control of the business and we're putting information out into the market, which we believe is accurate, which we believe is current. I think that the value system of this business is such that we try to maintain a high standard of custodianship and responsibility in managing our shareholders' capital. But the market is the market. We don't control the market. What we have done this last year, and hopefully that will start to assist, is change the marketing approach somewhat. Fewer of these conferences, these very expensive conferences, we have five or our or maybe 10 interviews and more on the digital platform. So we're using proactive investors as an international digital platform. Here locally or here in New York. Wainwright is also assisting us in using their platform as a way of spreading the message. Now we're reaching far more people. And obviously, this requires a slightly different approach to marketing and telling the story slightly more visual, using more imagery, our headline and then hoping that, we'd get those who are scrolling through the 500 companies that they follow. Maybe that something catches their eye and that they would dive a little bit deeper into the numbers, do a bit of analysis, of substantial analysis, extensive analysis of the business and see that or recognize, as far as I'm concerned, that it's a business on solid fundamentals, fundamental analysis. The business is on solid fundamentals.

Riaan Davel

Management

And Niël, a comment in no dividend at year-end. I mean, it says the Sibanye deal capital requirements that was mentioned in the promotion of the deal that this was not going to be affected. Niël Pretorius: Yes. So we're paying the interim dividend just before we issued the shares to Sibanye to acquire the transaction. I think one of the concerns that was raised was that we will now be immediately diluting earnings and diluting dividends. We want to make sure that the next dividend that's paid is paid from the joint revenues and that the new circuit also contributes towards that. To pay dividend now, especially now at the beginning of this capital project while we might be drawing down, I think it's artificial. We're diluting the Ergo earnings without having established a new revenue source. And what really are you saying to the market, so we're borrowing money in order to pay dividend. So yes, we paid the interim dividend. So the uninterrupted yearly dividend record that we're trying to maintain, that hasn't been interrupted. And clearly, once revenue starts coming in from the new circuit, then it, too, will pay its proportion towards earnings for the whole of the DRDGOLD shareholder base.

Riaan Davel

Management

Thanks, Niël. And a question for me. I'll just recap, the headline earnings per share dropped from first half to full year. I tried to cover it in the presentation. Let me just recap. So one of the major moves was the golding process moved, it was at 40.9 million at half year and then ended up at 24 million credit to the income statement for the full year. Net movement as a whole was almost about 57 million. Then other major movements for the two six months periods, so revenue down roughly 20 million. And then long-term incentive, short-term incentive adjustments and transaction costs close to 30 million. And then cash operating costs in the second half of the year contributed roughly 5 million, which explains the two six months periods and the impact on headline earnings, specifically. Ralph, thank you for all your questions and the interest that you show. That is all the questions that I have off the webcast. Any other questions in the audience? Niël Pretorius: So I extend my thanks to Ralph for those comments. They're usually helpful and certainly keep us on our toes.

Martin Creamer

Management

Martin Creamer from Mining Weekly Online. Niël, could you please tell me what the life of your company is now, given the new Far West Gold Recoveries project. How far does that take you? And will you be carrying out the same sort of rehab philosophy on the West Rand as you have on the East Rand? Niël Pretorius: Yes, Martin, they're different models. So the West Rand, the number three and number five dam, which we refer to as the first phase of the Far West Rand operations, that has a standalone life of 12 years. But obviously, we've undertaken to also look at the incorporation of the whole of their footprint into a much larger initiative. And that will be the subject matter of a two-year study from when we start producing. And then it could be substantially longer. If my memory serves me correct, and I think it's a 15-year model, and there's also a 18 or 20-year model, if I'm not mistaken. Jaco, you could maybe just confirm that. I see you nodding, yes. So there are different iterations, 12 years, 15 years and 20 years, Martin.

Martin Creamer

Management

And are you looking at any other assets on the West Rand that could be included in this? West Wits to still be around, you have a slight footprint there. Is there anything else that you could incorporate? Is there a lot still to come in? Niël Pretorius: Well, everything that we want to introduce -- well, the only thing that we can look at now at this stage is just what we own, what we bought. But this is not an island. Obviously, there are lots and lots of dumps around the Far West operations' footprint and many of those are attractive dumps. That whole Western Deep levels belt, the Driefontein belts, those were particularly rich reefs. And the gold content in those tailings dams show a -- the gold content is good in those tailings dams. So we certainly be -- we will -- I mean, they will feel comfortable in our portfolio. There's no doubt about that. And of course, if you could add a few hundred million tonnes, it just makes your model for a larger plant so much more -- and so much easier, the little rate drops. So the opportunity would certainly present itself. We don't want -- one of our key focus, one of our key strategic considerations when we look at these things, and once again, it might be overly conservative, but it served us well. It served us well over the last 10, 12 years, is that -- and we started the surface story, we started building the surface story, expanding on the surface story with net cash flow as a core element of the story. And we're very conscious of net cash flow per capita, net cash flow per share. So the earnings -- earnings are earnings. This fair value…

Martin Creamer

Management

Yes, it does. And then just finally, could you give us a word on the yield that you'll have on the West Rand versus the yield you've got on the East Rand? Niël Pretorius: So it's a higher grade, the initial phase gives -- does have a higher head grade. So we do anticipate high yields, I think it's about 25% higher on the initial indications. But then again, this is tailings. And you'll know exactly how much you're going to make when you actually see that gold bar coming out of the smelter. So based on our past experience, based on our knowledge of this -- of the geology of this particular site, we have a fairly good idea of what we could target. And those found its way into the market update that went out last year when we announced the transaction, as part of the transaction. So I'm careful to -- it will definitely be this or it will definitely be that, but it's probably going to be about a 25% high yield. So I think at the moment, we are just under 0.2. So with that, it's 0.225, 0.25 thereabouts -- 0.25. Jaco, can you maybe give an indication, 0.25 yield, yes?

Riaan Davel

Management

That's it. Thank you, everyone, for attending. Thank you, Niël, for standing up or getting up very early this morning in New York. And that's it. That's the wrap. Thank you very much, everyone. Niël Pretorius: Thank you very much, everybody, and goodbye. Have a good day.