Longgen Zhang
Analyst · once again
Okay. If you look at the whole policy, somehow, the reading is, I think, is because last year, in solar industry, especially downstream, because although diamond cutting plus technology, one side is to reduce the cost, another side is increase the efficiency rate. So the current Chinese, I think, the subsidized policy, is too rich to encourage those people to expansion the downstream projects with the IRR, without leveraging, above 15%. So that’s why, last year, I was targeting maybe 20 and 25 gigawatts, finally come up 53 gigawatts. For the government, it’s not too much. They didn’t have that much money to cover almost double the capacity on the downstream project. So that’s why the policy come out. The policy come out is, I think, a strategy. It’s a little strange because he should continue to be cutting the subsidized dramatically. But it didn’t do that, only cut $0.05 per KWH. In the meantime, he used, I think, a non-market method to control, you see. No more, I think, top run [ph] projects, that’s wrong because you cannot stop the projects without any subsidies, especially, I think, today, in Beijing, in Eastern Coast area, the cost is dramatically like even rooftop rooftop, only like cost probably installation cost is around like CNY 3.5 per watt, per W, per watt. So basically, you can generate in Beijing, [indiscernible] you can generate per year, you can generate 1.5 KWH, $0.36 per KWH. The coal standard, the underlying fee, you’re still paying high calculation, right? You’re almost like 6% and total investment is only $3.50. So we see potential right now in Beijing, in Jiangsu, in Zhenjiang [ph]. A lot of right now, the rural area install, right now, the rooftop, the solar system. So that’s why I think there’s potential there. It’s not only just the solar industry, but also, you see, for the environmental issue and also for the rural area solve the labor – the employment. So all these add together, I see potential in there. So what I’m thinking is, definitely, I think this year, in China, maybe we’ll reach 40 gigawatts, even 45 gigawatts. Especially, I think PV is not like people thinking, only, let’s say, the core improvements is only 4.5 gigawatts, then the PV second half is 9.5 gigawatts. I don’t think so, should be higher. That’s my personal view, okay? Philip.