Gongda Yao
Analyst · Axiom Capital. Please go ahead
Okay. Originally, we think, again, the forecast of a price is difficult job, and I would tell you what do we think. We think at the beginning, price will be Q1 is strong, Q2 is strong, and Q3 we’re weak and Q4 we’re recovering, that’s the original kind of V curve or whatever curve you saw. But right now, actually, what happens in the end of Q1, prices suddenly dropped a lot. So it dropped a like several dollars, $3 to $4. And then right now they are coming back $2. So it’s hard to say. So if we combine with the original vision for next two quarters, so we will see already like a kind of little bit W shape kind of thing. So it’s – if you believe me, so if the Q1 is strong and then when we exit the Q1 is weak going down and then Q2 is certainly going up and then everybody said the second-half is weak, because as the tariff cut, so would be going down a little bit and in Q4 we’re recovering. So it’s – definitely we know it’s not a straight line. So it’s not mono trend of going up, or mono trend going down, or flat, that’s not case. Well, fluctuation is always reflecting the demand and the supply. So when poly price is going down below $12.30, or $0.50 and manufacturers of polysilicon were restrained and they reduced production, because some manufacturers were losing money, causing the supply tight and driving the price up. And up to some point and then oversupply may be too much high cost for the downstream producers, and they will buy less and then pull the price back. So that’s the – always the mechanism of the market that we are playing and that give you some kind of instead of in a straight line into kind of W shape or M shape whatever the shape is, so it’s a saturation. But as we see, this time, is –the saturation is much less than in the history. So it’s like a $2 to $3 up and down. So it’s manageable for the industry. So we do not see much problem for whole year as we entered the year. So So we still believe roughly it’s evenly distributed for the first-half and the second-half, that’s why we say that.