Matt Steinfort
Analyst · Mike Cikos from Needham & Company. Mike, please go ahead
Thanks Yancey, and welcome to all of you who are joining us on today's earnings call as we review our solid Q3 results. In Q3, we continued to execute our strategy of accelerating the achievement of our long-term margin targets in the core DigitalOcean business while positioning the company for accelerated future growth through both organic and inorganic investment in our platform despite the ongoing macro headwinds. We have driven these margin improvements by achieving the savings that we had identified at the beginning of this year, which included improvements in our gross margin as we grew into capacity investments made in 2022 and the achievement of identified savings in both headcount and non-headcount related expenses. As we have continued to execute on these savings, we have increased our overall profitability and free cash flow margin significantly allowing us the flexibility to make targeted investments in growth. During the first three quarters, we have continued to invest in organic growth by our product roadmap as Yancey described and in July, we invested inorganically in the acquisition of Paperspace, which meaningfully increases our total addressable market. With our strong balance sheet, our continued focus on improving operating leverage and our commitment to share repurchases, we have made material progress driving earnings per share increasing 22% year-over-year. As we approach 2024, our strategy remains the same. We will continue to drive operating leverage while balancing investment across organic and inorganic growth opportunities and share repurchases. With that context in mind, I will review the highlights in the third quarter. Revenue in the third quarter was $177.1 million, which was an increase of 16% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter and our first full quarter that lapsed the pricing increase we implemented in early Q3 2022. Contributing to this growth was Cloudways, which grew 11% quarter-over-quarter and the addition of Paperspace, the AI platform we acquired in early July, which contributed $3 million to our results for Q3 and which surpassed the $1 million in monthly revenue mark in September. Profitability was very strong as we delivered $75.8 million of adjusted EBITDA, a 43% margin for the second consecutive quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin improvements are the result of improving gross margins as we grew into the incremental data center and bandwidth capacity investments that we had made in late 2022 and the ongoing benefit of the efficiency improvements that we had identified in Q1 of this year and have been realizing throughout the year. Free cash flow was also a highlight in the quarter as we generated $56 million which was 32% of revenue. This 500 basis point improvement from Q2 was a result of both lower capital expense and working capital timing. Given the working capital timing dynamic coupled with our anticipated near-term Paperspace investments, we expect free cash flow margin in Q4 to be lower than Q3 levels. While free cash flow margins can be lumpy quarter to quarter, we continue to be confident in our full year free cash flow margin expectations. Finally, non-GAAP earnings per share was $0.44, which is a 22% year-over-year increase as we have increased our profit margins while having simultaneously reduced our shares outstanding through our systematic share buyback program. As expected, net dollar retention declined in Q3 to the mid-90s coming in at 96% as we lapped the price increase that was implemented in July of 2022. Fortunately, despite the difficult year-over-year comp in Q3, we did continue to see evidence of the ongoing stabilization of market demand that had started to show signs of bottoming in Q2. As it has been for most of 2022, churn remained stable at historical levels around 11% to 12% for each of the months in Q3, which is consistent with historical churn levels in early 2022 prior to the market slowdown. Contraction which has historically been in the 12% range in early 2022 showed improvement as we progressed through the quarter ending at 15% after starting the quarter at over 16%. We also saw positive signs in expansion in Q3, which was the final metric we said we needed to see for stabilization as it had continued to decline in Q2, albeit at a decelerating rate in Q3, expansion stopped declining for the first time in over a year and was fairly consistent at 23%. While we have not yet seen a meaningful improvement in NDR, we are encouraged by the relative stability of the key component metrics in Q3. We expect NDR to improve in Q4 and early 2024, driven in part by the continued strength of the Cloudways business and more favorable year-over-year comparisons. From a customer perspective, our durable customer acquisition and graduation model remained solid despite the challenging growth environment. We graduated 4000 builders and scalers on our platform in the quarter and we now have more than 154,000 on the DigitalOcean platform. These customers who spend more than $50.00 per month with DigitalOcean continue to represent 86% of our overall revenue and remain a key focus of our product, sales and customer success investments. Average monthly revenue per customer or ARPU was $92.06 which was an increase of 6% year-over-year, which like NDR faced a difficult year-over-year comp as we lapped the price increase from last July. Before providing guidance for Q4 and for the full year 2023, it is important to understand where we are in the 2024 planning process. We are working diligently to finalize our plan and budget for 2024 with a focus on delivering double digit growth with healthy profit and free cash flow margins. Our strategy will remain the same in 2024. We will continue to drive operating leverage in the core DigitalOcean business while investing to take advantage of the compelling market opportunity we have with Paperspace. As we shared last quarter, despite the continued market pressures, we believe we have a solid foundation for double digit top line growth for 2024 with our steady self-serve funnel generating around 5% growth, Cloudways generating around 3% growth and Paperspace producing at least 3% growth. Key to growing faster than this will be getting NDR above 100% at some point in 2024, which we are working aggressively to accomplish. We look forward to providing more specifics on our plan at our next earnings call in February when we report our Q4 and full year results. In terms of financial guidance for Q4 of 2023, we are targeting revenue to be $178 million. For the fourth quarter we expect adjusted EBITDA margins to be in the range of 36% to 37% and non-GAAP earnings per share to be $0.36 to $0.37 based on approximately 100 million to 101 million in weighted average fully diluted shares outstanding. For the full year, we are targeting revenue to be $690 million. Given the strong performance driving margin improvement in our core DigitalOcean business, we continue to project adjusted EBITDA margins to be in the range of 38% to 39% for the full year, despite our increased investment in our Paperspace AI/ML business. We project non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $1.52 to $1.54 with weighted average fully diluted shares outstanding for 2023 of $102 million to $103 million. And finally, given the strong progress we have made on improving margins in our core DigitalOcean business, for the full year 2023, free cash flow will be 21% to 22% of revenue, consistent with our initial February guide, despite the incremental investment we are making into our Paperspace business. That concludes our formal remarks and we'll now open the call up to Q&A.