Keith Bush
Analyst · CJS Securities. Your line is now open
Thanks Lee. Revenue for the quarter came in at $493 million, declining 0.9% over last year. Organic revenue, which excludes acquisitions, FX and other noncomparable items, declined approximately 4% and was about in line with our expectations. Shifting to our segments. The Small Business Services revenue was $316 million and grew 3%, and we delivered continued growth in marketing solutions and other services. Financial Services revenue was $147 million and declined 6.7% on a reported basis and about 10% organically compared to the third quarter of last year. While disappointing, the FS revenue decline was driven by lower check orders, lower data-driven marketing revenue and the loss of a previously discussed customer in Deluxe Rewards. Direct Checks revenue was $31 million, declining 9.1% from last year, but ending slightly better than our expectation. Our strategy to transform Deluxe into more than a check printer is playing out, as this marks the first quarter that marketing solutions and other services represented the highest products and services mix, contributing $210 million or about 43% of total revenue for the quarter. Check revenue ended the quarter at $198 million, representing 40% of total revenue. And forms and accessories ended at $85 million, representing 17% of total revenue. Gross margin for the quarter was 59.9% of revenue and declined from 61.2% in 2017. The impact in margins from product and service mix and increased delivery and material costs and acquisitions were only partially offset by previous price increases and improvements in manufacturing productivity. SG&A expense increased $5.3 million from last year to $208.6 million in the quarter or 42.3% of revenue compared to 40.8% last year. Additionally, the expenses from acquisitions, the CEO transition process and planned innovation investment spend were only partially offset by our continuing cost-reduction initiatives and lower medical costs. Excluding non-GAAP adjustments, which I will discuss shortly, adjusted operating margin for the quarter was 18.2%, down 2.3 points from 20.5% in 2017. The margin decline was driven primarily by the mix of product and service revenue and acquisitions, partially offset by previous price increases and continued cost reductions. Small Business Services adjusted operating margin was 17.9%, down 1.8 points from 19.7% in 2017, with the decline driven by higher acquisition spending, a higher average commission rate and increased material and delivery costs, only partially offset by previous price increases and continued cost reduction initiatives. Financial Services adjusted operating margin of 15.3% was down 3.8 points from 2017. In addition to check usage decline and continued check pricing allowances, the loss of the large customer in Deluxe Rewards and higher delivery rates were only partially offset by continued benefits of cost reductions. Direct Checks adjusted operating margin of 34.1% increased 0.5 points from 2017, driven by cost reductions that were only partially offset by lower check order volume and higher delivery costs. Diluted earnings per share for the third quarter was a loss of $0.67. These results include aggregate non-GAAP adjustments of $106.9 million or $2.03 per share. Of this amount, $1.59 per share was a noncash goodwill impairment in the Small Business Services segment, primarily in the distributor channel attributable to changes in strategy and in the mix of products and services sold, including declining checks and forms. We also recognized a noncash asset impairment of $0.34 per share, primarily for the Safeguard tradename. Additionally, we recognized charges for restructuring and the CEO transition cost of $0.13 per share and a benefit of $0.03 per share related to federal tax reform. As Deluxe pivots towards financial technology solutions and Small Business Services offerings, away from the legacy forms and checks business, noncash charges such as this may occur. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.36 and ended about $0.04 better than the high end of our outlook, driven by lower brand spend timing and medical expenses, additional share repurchases and slightly lower tax rate. These benefits were partially offset by lower revenue and a change in revenue mix. Turning to the balance sheet and the cash flow statement. We were drawn $889 million on our credit facility at the end of the quarter, with the increase primarily due to acquisitions and higher share repurchases. Year-to-date cash provided by operating activities was $219 million, a $7 million decrease compared to 2017, driven by higher earnings and lower prepaid product discount payments, offset by higher interest payments and higher payables. Capital expenditures were $43 million year-to-date, and depreciation and amortization expense was $97 million. Now moving to our outlook. We are adjusting our previous consolidated revenue outlook for the full year to range from $1.995 billion to $2.005 billion, which equates to about 2% overall growth. We removed all of the remaining unannounced acquisition revenue from our 2018 outlook. We are disappointed that our current full year revenue is expected to be lower than the outlook we provided at the beginning of the year by about $100 million at the high end of our guidance. The key drivers of the change were primarily $53 million in delays on acquisition revenue and $29 million lower data-driven marketing revenue. The remainder of the change was from a few other items, including the impact of slower eChecks ramp and other items, including foreign exchange. We continue to be pleased with our checks product performance, and we expect to achieve the high end of our initial check expectations for the year. We are modifying our adjusted diluted earnings per share outlook to an expected range from $5.63 to $5.70. Here are some additional color on our 2018 full year outlook. Small Business Services revenue is expected to increase 3% to 4%. Financial Services revenue is expected to increase 1% to 2%, and Direct Checks revenue is expected to decline about 10%. We delivered on our third quarter cost and expense reductions commitment and expect full year reductions of approximately $55 million. We expect to see continued inflation in material costs and delivery rates, and we continue to plan for revenue growth investments of approximately $8 million. In addition to this, we also plan to invest $7 million, most of which is driven by data-driven marketing and treasury management and talent, technology and process improvements to accelerate strategic sales and drive more development innovation. We expect our full year non-GAAP effective tax rate to be approximately 24%. We expect to continue generating strong operating cash flow, ranging between $350 million and $355 million in 2018, reflecting stronger earnings, lower tax payments and lower medical costs, partially offset by higher interest payments. We expect prepaid product discount payments to be approximately $25 million for the year, and 2018 capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $60 million. Depreciation and amortization expense is expected to be approximately $132 million, including approximately $79 million of acquisition-related amortization. For the fourth quarter of 2018, we expect revenue to range from $522 million to $532million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to range from $1.48 to $1.58. The comparison the third quarter, the fourth quarter is expected to have higher revenue and higher operating income flow through, partially offset by higher medical expenses and brand spend and on web services. Moving on to our capital structure. We expect to maintain our balanced approach of investing organically and through small-to medium-sized acquisitions to drive our growth transformation. And we have noted – we have intended to be moderately more aggressive in our acquisition plans going forward. As previously mentioned, our Board of Directors increased our share repurchase authorization to $500 million. We expect to continue to be in the market to repurchase common stock. Now I'll turn the call back to Lee. Lee Schram Thank you, Keith. I'll continue my comments with the recap of where we are and implications for the full year and highlight our progress in each of our segments, focusing on the three primary MOS key growth areas, to provide a perspective on how we progressed in the third quarter and outline what we expect to accomplish during the balance of the year. As Keith mentioned previously, we are disappointed that our current full year revenue is expected to be lower than the outlook we provided at the beginning of the year. Nonetheless, we remained bullish about our strategy. 53% of our revenue reduction has been not being able to close new acquisitions quickly enough, and another 29% driven by data-driven marketing. Note, as Keith also highlighted, that our check businesses are performing very well, and we expect to achieve the high end of our original expectations. To protect our adjusted EPS, we continued to prudently manage expenses, continued to refine and reduce our income tax rate, slightly reduced our planned innovation investment spend, and we also have repurchased more common shares than originally planned. We believe we will continue to execute well, and outside of data-driven marketing right now, that our business continues to improve both operationally and strategically. Given all this, for 2018, we expect to deliver continued growth in MOS revenue and a ninth consecutive year of total revenue growth. If we achieve the low end of the range of our revenue target for the year, this will set an all-time record. And achieving the middle of the range would mark the first time in the history of Deluxe that our revenue exceeds $2 billion. Additionally, we continue to believe we remain on track towards our 3-year goal through 2020 to pivot for faster organic growth, with more moderately and more aggressive acquisitive growth. While accelerating progress toward our three year strategic goals and growing EBITDA, there may continue to be an impact to operating income and EPS, depending on the mix and pace of new acquisition growth and the organic performance of MOS. There is a cost to transform more quickly. So as we have been indicating, we may experience small, near-term EPS dilution in 2019. But we expect EBITDA growth and immediate cash flow and cash EPS accretion. We are committed to delivering enhanced shareholder value while we continue our pivot for faster organic growth and more moderately more aggressive acquisitive revenue growth. We are also targeting to increase our overall MOS to total company revenue mix to be approximately 43% this year, growing to 60% by year-end 2020. In 2020, in marketing solutions and other services, we expect revenue to be approximately $843 million to $852 million, up from $756 million in 2017, with an expected 12% to 13% growth rate, including 3% organic growth. Now shifting to our segments. In Small Business Services, Q3 revenue grew about 3%. Forms, accessories and small business marketing solutions were slightly below the high end of our expectations, while checks and web services performed about on our expectations. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remained very strong throughout the third quarter, finishing September at 108, which was slightly up from June, so a strong positive indicator. Clearly, there remains strong optimism for the economy, with small businesses signaling they expect better market conditions and increased business activity and capital spending. However, small business owners appear to be increasing wages for existing employees, and in some instances, hiring more employees, neither of which have driven marketing spend through Deluxe. We have seen new small business customers in our payroll services business, which we believe is a result of a strong labor market. If the optimistic trend continues, we believe this bodes well for us in the future for SBS revenue growth. Small business marketing solutions were below our expectations for Q3. However, positively, they are expected to outperform our original expectations for the year. Growth initiatives here include scaling marketing on-demand solution offers in the financial adviser and real estate verticals and growing web-to-print, retail packaging and promotional products. Web services were about on our expectations for Q3, with our focus remaining on targeting additional cross-sell and upsell as well as new customers. We continue to ramp our cross-sell for "do it for me" logo customers who became web design customers. We are scaling payroll services. And in Q3, payroll services revenue was slightly better than our expectations. eChecks and eDeposits are included on our fraud, security and operational services category. Our focus on eChecks and eDeposits continues to be in building out opportunities with financial institutions, medical and insurance payment processors, accounting services and software providers and other document management and payment solution companies. In Q4, we expect to ramp in a second medical insurance payment processor as well as two insurance companies, which are expected to initiate rollouts. Finally, we are continuing our brand awareness transformation. In early October, we had a media event launching the Main Street makeover web series, highlighting the makeover of Alton, Illinois. And we announced our plans to complete a fourth town makeover in 2019. We continue to improve the link between smallbusinessrevolution.org to our content and demand creation to deluxe.com as we focus on driving more revenue-generating capabilities. In Financial Services, Q3 revenue was disappointing, down about to 7% last year, primarily driven from declines in the loyalty rewards business from the previously announced lost large customer, from lower data-driven marketing revenue and from checks or units decline, about 6% in the quarter. For 2018, we continued to expect check units to decline approximately 7% as well as we expect to continue our process simplification and cost and expense structure-reduction initiatives. For data-driven marketing, organic growth rates have been in the mid-20s over the past four years. However, our organic growth in DDM is now expected to be only about 4% this year. Unfortunately, we have not yet seen the expected increase in marketing spend nor have we seen higher spend from a combination of tax reform savings, anticipated regulatory relief and ascending interest rates, all of which typically improve bank earnings and drive more marketing. Our focus in DDM is on growing the business with both existing FIs and acquiring new FIs and expanding our pay-for-performance initiative. For all of 2017, we added seven new FMCG customers. Positively so far in 2018, we have added 10 new FMCG customers, which is more than any year in the history of FMCG. For all of 2017, we only had one pay-for-performance customer, but we have added five customers in 2018. In Q3, we had eight new customer wins in non-top 100 FIs, plus four expansion wins with existing top 100 customers. To accelerate revenue growth in response to market softness, we recently added several new strong senior sales and marketing executives and expanded our data platform capabilities, which we believe will help drive improved data-driven marketing revenues. For 2019, many of our very large financial institutions are indicating a heavier need for deposits, along with credit card processing, which are sweet spots for FMCG more than mortgage. One of our 2019 strategic initiatives is also forging new third-party partnerships, leading to an expansion of offerings, which will support our client's evolving needs. For treasury management solutions, our focus is on profitably scaling the business and integrating acquisitions. In Q3, treasury management solutions revenue was slightly below our expectations. However, we had three significant sized new wins in the quarter, which include multiyear rollouts and four cross-sell wins with existing customers. On August 16, we announced the acquisition of REMITCO's remittance processing business, which will be integrated into treasury management solutions. The acquisition unifies two market leaders, with best-of-breed offerings in a fast consolidating market, where FIs are moving towards trusted outsource providers on a national scale. This acquisition, consolidated with our offers, will provide more revenue opportunities as we expect 70 of the top 100 banks to make a decision to implement integrated receivables management over the next three years. Customer reaction to this acquisition has been very positive, as this makes us a significant player in serving commercial finance institutions and enables a foothold to future receivables management expansion opportunities. In Direct Checks, revenue finished slightly better than our expectations, and we will continue to look for revenue opportunities to provide accessories and other check related products and services to our consumers, and for synergistic cost and expense reductions. For 2018, we expect Direct Checks revenue to decline around 10%, driven by continued declines in consumer usage and lower reorders. We expect to reduce manufacturing cost and SG&A in the segment and continue to deliver operating margins in the low 30% range, while generating strong operating cash flow. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect 6% to 8% overall revenue growth and slight organic growth. Organic growth in the fourth quarter will be an encouraging sign heading into 2019. In 2019, we are planning for what we expect to be a 10th consecutive year of revenue growth, including some organic growth. And we expect to deliver adjusted diluted earnings per share and operating cash flow growth. Given that we plan to announce my successor on November 6, we will not provide additional color on 2019 and beyond at this time, as we want to give that individual time to transition into the company and work with the management team to assess the current 2019 plan before providing additional guidance. Now Jimmy, we'll open up the call for questions.