Lee J. Schram
Analyst · CJS Securities
Thank you, Terry. I will continue my comments with an update on our key revenue growth area, marketing solutions and other services, including some details on our Wausau acquisition, and provide an update on our brand awareness campaign. I will then highlight progress in each of our 3 segments, including a perspective on what we hope to accomplish in the fourth quarter, and finally, provide some context looking forward to 2015. Our primary focus for the balance of the year continues to be profitable revenue growth and increasing the mix of marketing solutions and other services revenues towards our goal of 40% by 2018. As part of this revenue growth focus, we will continue to assess potential small- to medium-sized acquisitions that complement our large customer bases, with a focus on marketing solutions and other services. We are adding more products and services to our portfolio, and we continue to strengthen our channel reach. Deluxe is now more capable of helping small businesses pursue their passion as a trusted provider of a growing suite of products and services a Small Business needs to market and operate their business. And helping financial institutions with customer acquisition, risk management, and now with acquisition of Wausau, with a comprehensive suite of payment software, services and outsourcing solutions. Here is an update on our 4 subcategories framework for marketing solutions and other services. We ended the third quarter right in line with our expectations in revenue, with mix in the 4 subcategories basically in line with our expectations. First, Small Business marketing is expected to represent approximately 40% of revenue in 2014, with expected growth approximately 20% this year. We saw growth in the third quarter in the Web-to-print space, as we cross-sold to our customer base and added new customers through distributors, dealers and major accounts. We expect to ramp production in the fourth quarter on our new, organically built, automated business card and postcard production fulfillment system. We also saw very strong digit growth in retail packaging solutions and expect this growth to continue in the fourth quarter. We also expect to begin a logo promotional marketing and apparel rollout with a large hotel chain, including franchises, in the fourth quarter that we expect will ramp further in 2015. The second category, web services, which includes logo and web design, web hosting, SEM, SEO, e-mail marketing, social and payroll services, is expected to represent approximately 29% of revenue in 2014, with expected growth rates in the low double digits. We saw solid rollouts in wholesale web help build major accounts in the third quarter, and also solid growth from the prior year in cross-selling bundled presents packages to our retail base and added more new customers, resellers and partners. We released our pay-as-you-go capability as part of our e-mail marketing premium offer, and continue to see an encouraging sign-up ramp. Also importantly, we have assessed our progress in the SEM/SEO space and have made the decision to exit some unprofitable revenue in this offer, given the changing landscape and heavy influence of Google in this market space. This will have a small impact on both fourth quarter and go-forward revenue, but our decision will improve overall profitability. We continue to reduce web design and SEM's campaign cycle times, and churn rates remain low. We added payroll services customers, and many customers added new features such as time and attendance applications. This category, web services, is also one of our key focus areas for tuck-in acquisitions. We closed the third quarter with approximately 830,000 web hosting customers, and we expect to close 2014 with nearly 850,000 web hosting customers, an increase of 16% from 2013, as we expect migrations to continue through the balance of the year. The third category, fraud, security, risk management and operational services, are expected to represent approximately 19% of revenue in 2014, with expected growth rates in the low-single digits. We had a solid third quarter, as we added program services for new community banks and fraud and security offers for small businesses and direct to our consumers. We added Banker's Dashboard customers as well. Further, although still small at this point, we did have our highest quarterly revenue for e-checks, including seeing our first reorder cycles. Finally, other financial institution services are expected to represent approximately 12% of revenue in 2014, with very strong double-digit expected growth rates. In the third quarter, we saw growth in new financial institution customers in targeting and campaign services, and Destination Rewards revenue exceeded expectations. We also drove a quarterly profit in the third quarter for the first time in Destination Rewards and now expect total year revenue to be closer to $19 million, up from our previous $15 million outlook, and expect our yearend exit run rate to be closer to $25 million for 2015. We have signed up a very large national financial institution on our new SwitchAgent 2.0 release, which is our automated solution to help consumers switch banking service providers. Going forward, this category will also include Wausau Financial Systems. Here are some color on our latest acquisition. Wausau offers a comprehensive suite of payment, software, services and outsourcing solutions, including integrated receivables, remote deposit capture and paperless in-brand solutions. The Financial Services industry continues to evolve from a preference for in-house deployments to SaaS and business process outsourcing, or BPO, deployments. As a result of this ongoing evolution, Wausau Financial Systems' SaaS and BPO revenue has quadrupled in the past 4 years. And with this trend expected to accelerate even more in the future, we believe this creates a growth opportunity going forward. Although the market for revenue in these services is expected to grow in the low single digits, they have seen higher growth this year, and we expect to see growth rates in the next several years in the mid- to high single digits. Again, we expect revenue for the balance of 2014 to be approximately $12 million, and expect this to be about $0.01 dilutive to EPS this year. Next year, we expect revenue to be approximately $80 million, and expect it to be dilutive about $0.04 per share, but diluted in total less than a year, so accretive by the fourth quarter of 2015. Strategically, this acquisition strengthens Deluxe's commitment to the financial institution market, marking a meaningful step forward in our evolution to become a more diverse provider of Financial Services, FinTech, technology solutions to our financial institution clients. Importantly, this enables Deluxe to generate revenue growth in both the retail and commercial sides of the financial institution industry, competing in 2 of the 3 legs of the industry stool, with wealth/asset management being the third. We believe this provides us with a sizable, sticky, growing annuitized services business. In addition to our focus today on the retail side of financial institutions, this gives us an entry point into the commercial and treasury side, helping us not only to diversify through a close adjacency and strong relationships that we already have with financial institutions, but also with very strong SaaS solutions. They have award-winning industry-leading offers in integrated receivables, remote deposit capture and paperless in-brand solutions. Notably, their integrated receivables solution leverages data and analytics, across the spectrum of payment types, to provide enhanced receivables decision support. As a Central Wisconsin-based company, we also believe there will be a strong cultural fit. Their largest customers include many of our current customers on the check side, including Bank of New York, U.S. Bank, Citi, and Fifth Third, among others. They have relationships with 9 of the top 10 financial institutions and more than 250 financial institution clients, as well as they also sell through government, telcos, retailers, health and insurance companies, where we also have relationships that help with access to small business customers. In summary, with access to a proven player and growing markets, this acquisition enhances Deluxe's competitive position as a FinTech provider, gives us more swings at the plate with our financial institution clients and will increasingly increase marketing solutions and other services revenue mix. We are really excited about this acquisition and welcome Wausau employees to the Deluxe team. We expect marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately $420 million in 2014, up from $343 million in 2013, with organic growth in the low double digits. If achieved, this performance would translate to a total revenue mix of around 25% of revenue, up from 22% in 2013, and 19% and 16% the previous 2 years. Here is an update on our brand awareness campaign. We just finished, in October, our final wave of the year of an intense 6-week local market brand awareness campaign targeting the Chicago, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Minneapolis/St. Paul markets through television, online digital and print media. We saw very strong results in these markets, compared against other markets where we did not complete brand awareness initiatives. For example, in Chicago, we saw a 474% lift and in Minneapolis/St. Paul, a 608% lift in online traffic. As a reminder, our objective this year is to continue with our brand awareness campaign to targeted key Small Business audiences, and to test at various spend levels and media initiatives in different geographies over approximately 6-week burst. By doing this, we are able to continue our transformational messaging, as well as gain a better understanding of how our customers react to different scenarios, allowing us to more effectively and optimally plan for 2015 and beyond. In the third quarter, we also participated in the Annual SCORE Awards recognition program for small businesses as well as the Entrepreneurial Women's Conference, hosted by the Women's Business Development Center, that is attended by over 2,000 women business owners. Now shifting to our segments. Small Business Services in the quarter, as expected, did not see any notable improvements, as the economic climate for small businesses remained sluggish. We had strong performance, as revenue grew over 7%. Checks and forms met our expectations. Results from targeted customer segmentation in the call center improved. New customers from our financial institution, Deluxe Business Advantage Referral Program, and through our direct response campaigns remained strong. Average order value and conversion rates increased. Our online Safeguard distributor, major accounts, and dealer channels grew revenue over the prior year. We also saw strong growth in web, Web-to-print and payroll services, as well as growth in e-mail marketing. Again, we ended the quarter with approximately 830,000 web hosting customers. We continue to closely monitor the Small Business market. Optimism indices in the third quarter were up slightly from second quarter readings, sliding slightly in July and August, and falling back in September. Pessimism about the economy and the future moderated in the quarter. The outlook for expansion continued to be positive, along with sales expectations. More owners hired in the third quarter and are planning to hire in the fourth quarter, and more new firms are starting than failing right now. Small businesses continue to spend cautiously, more in maintenance mode and continue to scrutinize purchases and experience tight cash flow. In summary, current optimism indices, although still at recessionary levels, trended slightly higher in the third quarter, even with the pullback in September. The good news is that other than taxes and regulation, increasing sales continues to be a small business owner's #1 pain point, and our portfolio is significantly more robust now, with many offers to help them here. As the economy recovers with the transformative changes we are making to deliver more services offerings that help small businesses get and keep customers, Deluxe is better positioned as that indispensable partner for growth. In Small Business Services, our focus for the remainder of 2014 is on accelerating our brand transformation and significantly improving overall market awareness, while institutionalizing our brand promise for our customers, creating an effective end-to-end integrated technology customer experience, effectively acquiring and retaining customers and optimizing sales channel effectiveness and channel marketing capabilities. In Financial Services, we saw the check decline rate perform just over 6%, and we continue to expect the decline rate for the year will be approximately 6%. We had strong overall new acquisition rates, and our retention rates remained strong, and deal spending in the current quarter well in excess of 80%. The Zions migration went well a few weeks ago, and we are working several more competitive opportunities. We simplified our processes and took complexity out of the business, while reducing our cost and expense structure. With approximately 90% of our 2014 community bank contract renewals already completed by the end of the third quarter, we are well ahead of the linear pace for the year. We made progress again in the quarter in advancing non-check Marketing Solutions and other services revenue opportunities. We now have offers in the targeting and campaign services space, through ACTON and Cornerstone, to assist financial institutions with customer acquisition and retention; an account activation and anchoring offer, in SwitchAgent; an account activation and retention rewards and loyalty offer in Destination Rewards, and now through the Wausau acquisition, a comprehensive suite of payment software, services and outsourcing solutions, including integrated receivables, remote deposit capture and paperless in-brand solutions. In the third quarter, we saw continued growth in new financial institutions in our ACTON and Cornerstone targeting and campaign services offers. For SwitchAgent, we began 2.0 pilots with financial institutions that further our vision for the most simple and efficient account switching and anchoring experience for financial institution customers. Banker's Dashboard also continued to perform well in the third quarter. Destination Rewards had another strong quarter, again exceeding our expectations, driven primarily by the success of the Verizon roll out. As you can see, strong momentum continues to build, and we expect strong double-digit growth in these Marketing Solutions and other services in 2014. In Direct Checks, revenue was higher than our expectations, driven by higher initial orders and reorders. We continue to look for opportunities to provide accessories and other check-related products and services to our consumers. We continue to work on a number of initiatives to create an integrated, best-in-class direct-to-consumer check experience. We continue to see a ramp in revenue enhancement synergies through our call center scripting and up-sell capabilities, as well as synergistic costs and expense reductions. Our Direct Checks revenue expectations for the year are slightly better. Previously, we guided to a revenue decline rate of 9%, but we now believe the revenue decline rate will be closer to 8%, driven by continued declines in consumer usage in a sluggish economy. We expect to reduce our manufacturing costs and SG&A in this segment and continue to deliver operating margins in the lower 30% range, while generating strong operating cash flow. As we exit the third quarter on the heels of another outstanding quarterly performance in a continued challenging economy, we made good progress again in transforming Deluxe, but we still have a lot of work and opportunities ahead of us. We are continuing to prudently plan that the economic climate will not improve in the fourth quarter. We believe we are well-positioned in 2014 to deliver our fifth consecutive year of revenue growth. Our breadth of offers and financial discipline has enabled us to position ourselves for sustainable revenue growth, while continuing to improve profitability and operating cash flow. Our technologies and sales channels are stronger. Our digital technology services offer is more mature. Our infrastructure better, and our management talent is deeper and aligned to grow revenue. We know it is critical for us to be able to grow revenue again in 2014 and improve the mix of our marketing solutions and other services revenue, and we are well-positioned to make this happen. We have delivered a strong platform for long-term growth with the objective of transforming to, Deluxe to more of a growth services provider from, primarily, a check printer, thereby changing our product mix and resulting stock price multiple. Looking ahead to 2015, our portfolio is even better positioned to deliver continued sustainable revenue growth. We are planning for what we expect to be a sixth consecutive year of revenue growth. We expect the increase in 2015 revenue to be approximately 5% to 7%, including the Wausau acquisition, or around 2% to 4% organic growth compared to 2014, adjusting for the portion of SEM/SEO revenue we are exiting. This is expected to produce adjusted diluted per share growth -- EPS growth, ranging from approximately 5% to 8%, including the expected $0.04 per share dilution from the Wausau acquisition. With the assumption we will invest more in brand awareness, including tying-in branding efforts with our 100 company anniversary initiatives, benefit from a significant reduction in interest expense and with the tax rate in 2015 roughly comparable to 2014. To give some more color on our revenue thinking, we are planning on consumer checks through financial institutions to decline approximately 6% on a secular basis. On top of this, we have extended all large financial institution clients through at least 2015, with the exception of one that we are working to extend that comes due in the fourth quarter of 2015. And we have about the same community bank contract dollars up for renewal in 2015 compared to 2014. And as mentioned earlier, we have more competitive opportunities coming due through 2015. In business products, we expect to expand existing organic initiatives in Shop Deluxe, our Canadian business, and to add Safeguard distributors, dealers and major accounts. In Marketing Solutions and other services, we expect organic revenue growth roughly in the low double digits, in spite of a decline in SEM/SEO revenue, given my earlier comments about exiting some unprofitable SEM/SEO business -- or offer. To give some more color on our thinking, if we annualized 2014 expected revenue, organically grow roughly in the low double digits, and adding revenue from the Wausau acquisition, this would imply a targeted marketing -- and marketing solutions and other services revenue to total revenue mix of approximately 30% for the year. We are excited with our progress here. And with a more cooperative economy and continued possible additional tuck-in acquisitions as catalyst, we could potentially grow marketing solutions and other services even faster toward our goal of 40% of revenue mix by 2018. We also expect our cost and expense reduction initiatives to continue in 2015. From a housekeeping standpoint, each quarter in 2015, with the exception of the third quarter, which has one more day, has the same number of business days as 2014. As a reminder, we renewed a large financial institution check contract in early second quarter 2014 at a lower price, and therefore, we expect the more challenging EPS compare year-over-year in the first quarter of 2015, since the higher price contract was still in place in the first quarter of 2014. It is also extremely important for us to see how the fourth quarter progresses and to closely monitor the marketplace and the economy, over the next 3 months, before providing a more specific outlook detail for 2015. Now we're going to open the call up for Terry, Ed and I to take any questions.