Tony Lauritzen
Analyst · Ben Nolan. Your line is now open, sir
Thank you, Michael. Let's move on to slide 9. To summarize the Partnership's profile. The Partnership's fleet currently counts five high specification and versatile LNG carriers with an average age of about 5.9 years in an industry where expected useful economic lifetime is 35 years. Our vessels have unique features that enable them to operate as conventional LNG carriers, as well as operate in ice bound areas that are restricted for conventional vessels. We have a strong diversified customer base with leading energy companies. Namely, BG Group, Gazprom and Statoil. These charterers are leaders in their fields and only work with top-performing service providers. Our contract backlog is about $565.8 million and our average remaining charter period is about 4.3 years. Moving on to slide 10. Our fleet currently counts five energy carriers, of which, four have ice class 1A Notation. Our fleet is fully contracted in 2015, 2016 and 80% for 2017. A time we expect the LNG shipping market to be very strong due to the current ongoing construction of new LNG production plants measured against the perceived relatively insufficient order book. Combined with an existing world fleet that contains a large number of undersized and aged vessels. We have a unique fleet. It can handle conventional LNG shipping as well as operate in ice bound and sub-zero areas. This means that we're able to pursue business opportunities in two different markets, namely conventional shipping and the unique market for ice bound trade. The drivers behind several of our charters were the ice class features of our fleet as well as the operational track record in such conditions. As an extension of the ability to operate in ice bound areas, we're the only company in the world with a current capability and experience in transiting the Northern Sea route. Which we deem an important advantage, due to the ongoing development of LNG production along this route. We see a strong need going forward for vessels with ice class and winterization features. Our multi-year fleet employment profile, first-class customer base and the staggered maturity of our charterers provides solid cash flow visibility going forward. Our charterers are performing very well on their charter obligations and the vessels are utilized. The contractual relationship between our customers and the vessels are on a time charter party basis. Time charter parties are very powerful contracts where the charterer pays a fixed day rate to the owner regardless if the vessel is being used or not. And, oil and all major variable costs such as fuel costs, are for the charterer's account. Therefore, the Partnership enjoys visible and stable revenues that are unaffected by oil or gas prices. Let's move to slide 11. We had previously stated that we believe our sponsor will invest further in LNG tonnage. Which in turn improves the Partnership's growth potential. On 15th of September 2015, our sponsor announced the entering into shipbuilding contracts for five ice classed Arc-7 type LNG carriers with DSME that will be delivered in 2017 and 2019. These five vessels have been chartered for long-term charterers to the Yamal LNG project from delivery until minimum end of the year 2045. Our sponsor also chartered four of the five existing optional vessels from 2019 onwards for a minimum 15-year period. Each to the same project. This underlines the value of ice class and winterized LNG carriers. Let's move to slide 12. We intend to continue to focus, amongst other things, on equity of growth going forward. As a result of the Yamal LNG agreement, the LNG's growth potential has been transformed from good to outstanding. Our potential dropdown candidates now count 10 LNG carriers where all of the vessel have contracts in place. All dropdown candidates are high specification, ice classed and winterized. Moving on to slide 14. The current existing LNG world fleet consists of 419 vessels on the water and 136 vessels in the order book. Totaling 555 vessels as shown on the bar to the left. The average cargo size today is about 143,000 cubic meters. If we add up all the vessels in existing world fleet which size is below 139,999 cubic meters, meaning well below the average cargo size, we count about 144 vessels. Which is about 34% of the existing world fleet. The average age of these undersized vessels are about 18 years old. When we compare this, on average, old and undersized vessels of 144 units with the order book of 136 units, we note that these aged and smaller units counts a larger number of the order book. Furthermore, 87% of the order book has already been committed to charterers. This means that there are very few new buildings that may be available to facilitate the need to replace, on average, old and small tonnage. And, to carry the incremental LNG production volumes in an environment where LNG cargo production capacity is expected to grow faster than shipping capacity. Moving on to slide 15. World energy consumption has been steadily increasing over time. The largest sources of energy comes from coal, oil and gas. Since the early 1980s, gas has been the fastest-growing resource of those commodities. Going forward, we believe that coal- and oil-related consumption will be second, rated to gas, due to environmentally reasons and gas consumption will continue to grow faster than coal or oil. Based on current construction of new energy production terminals, the forward sale of new LNG, as well as FID taken on new LNG terminals, we expect the next years and to the end of the decade, to be dominated by strong LNG production growth. It is conservatively forecasted that 160 million tons of new annual incremental LNG will come to the market between now and 2020. This represents a total increase of 65% compared to 2014. As the last years have been quite static, with little new incremental LNG delivered to the market, the next years are said to be characterized by strong growth. These production figures are conservative, out of the 160 million of incremental annual production expected to be added to the market by 2020. We assume that minimum 145 million tons are already under construction. Meaning a high probability of project materialization. The source of this new LNG is I merely from Australia, Southeast Asia, North America and Russia. We continue to believe that the Far East will remain the largest buyers going forward. However, we also believe that we will see incremental demand in Southeast Asia, South America, the Middle East and Europe. We believe that there are sufficient buyers for the new LNG to be absorbed. The majority of the new LNG export volumes have sale agreements or offtake agreements in place. We believe that existing import markets will continue to increasingly rely on LNG as an energy resource. However, also believe that several new entrants will import LNG going forward and in particular, absorb uncommitted LNG. Let's move to slide 16. When we compare LNG supply to LNG shipping capacity available from now until 2020, we remain confident that the market outlook for shipping looks very favorable. The growth in LNG production, set at 65% within 2020, is estimated to outpace increase in LNG shipping capacity set at about 33% within the same period. We believe that LNG shipping is said to tighten going forward and in particular, from 2017 onwards. From 2018 onwards, we believe there will be a shortfall of shipping. It is this imbalance that will drive rate increases and that makes our vessels so desirable going forward. Additionally, the Partnership's fleet ice classed and winterized, enabling the fleet to pursue the best of two different markets. Additionally, there are several factors that may drive LNG shipping demand further. About 34% of the existing worldwide fleet may be considered a substandard specification in today's environment. Also, we may see an increase in re-exported cargos driven by price differences between markets and thereby, creating shipping distance. We may also see LNG production above nameplate production. Several LNG terminals are exporting below nameplate production and due to temporary or technical or political issues. If the Panama Canal expansion is delayed, cargoes going from the East Coast U.S. to the Far East, need to travel a much longer distance. Conventional LNG carriers' size does not permit the passing through the current Panama Canal. Actual production may also be higher than forecasted, due to additional projects and fast-paced projects such as FLNG. This will all lead to additional need for LNG carriers. The potential rechartering possibilities of part of our fleet will be in 2017, at the earliest and beyond. Which we expect to be a period of high world fleet utilization. This will be further supported by Arctic LNG coming onstream and requiring ice classed vessels which the LNG is in a great position to provide. Let's move to slide 16. We would like to conclude the presentation with why we believe our Company is valuable to investors. Our income from charterers is stable and unaffected by oil or gas prices. Our fleet is fixed on term time charter contracts with leading energy companies. Thereby creating a secure, visible and stable cash flow. Time charter agreements are very powerful contracts in which the charterers has to pay the owners a fixed day rate regardless if the vessel is used or not. And, all major variable voyage-related costs are for the charterer's account. Our fleet is operated by our associated and reputable manager, Dynagas, LTD, that has provided us with exemplary utilization rates. Our vessels are, furthermore, ice class and winterized. Which gives us the flexibility to pursue business on the conventional shipping markets, as well as on market for ice and winter trades. This is something that our peers are not able to currently offer and gives us a broader market access. And thereby, potential market fluctuation protection. We believe, in particular, these features will be in demand going forward as evidenced by our sponsor's' Yamal LNG agreements. We believe the transport for LNG has a bright future. Taking into account the ongoing construction and projection of new LNG production terminals, the composition of the existing world fleet and the order book with a grow [indiscernible] LNG productions forecasted to outpace growth in shipping capacity. We're committed to growing our fleet further. So far and since our IPO in November 2013, we have grown the distribution by 15.8% and as a result of our sponsor's Yamal LNG agreement our growth potential is substantial. We have a strong balance sheet, including a strong cash position and a mixture of secured amortizing debt and unsecured notes, supported by a large portion of fixed interest rates. Our fleetwide breakeven is low and we have no debt maturities until 2019. We have now reached the end of our third quarter 2015 presentation and I now open the floor for questions. Thank you.