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Dynagas LNG Partners LP (DLNG)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 11, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Dynagas LNG Partners Conference Call on the Third Quarter and Nine Months 2014 Financial Results. We have with us Mr. Tony Lauritzen, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Michael Gregos, Chief Financial Officer of the company. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There’ll be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today, Tuesday, November the 11th, 2014. At this time, I would like to read the Safe Harbor statement. This conference call and slide presentation of the webcast contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which may affect Dynagas LNG Partners’ business prospects and results of operations. Such risks are more fully disclosed in Dynagas LNG Partners filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. And I’ll now pass the floor to Mr. Lauritzen. Please go ahead, sir.

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us in our third quarter 2014 earnings conference call. I’m joined today by our CFO, Michael Gregos. Yesterday we issued a press release announcing our third quarter and first nine months of 2014 results. Certain non-GAAP measures will be discussed on this call. We have provided a description of those measures as well as the discussion of why we believe this information to be useful in our press release. We are pleased to report the partnership earnings for the third quarter of 2014, which are in line with our expectations, in particular, we are focused on the performance of our fleets and the safety operational and technical point of view. During the third quarter, we have had 100% fleet utilization, which is reflected in our financial results. With our fleets fully contracted until second quarter 2017, we continue to focus our attention on further fleet growth. The five LNG carriers currently owned by our sponsor Dynagas Holding LTD provides us with specific growth candidates. In addition and beyond these five LNG carriers, the forecasted growth in the energy industry, will enable our sponsor to make further commitments to LNG carriers and other related assets which will further enhance the partnerships growth prospects. Turning to slide 3 to discuss recent achievements. On September 25th, we completed our second acquisition of the year and acquired the Yenisei River, at 2013 built 155,000 cubic meter, ice class LNG carrier contracted to gas come until third quarter 2018, for a purchase price of $257.5 million. On September 15th, we closed a $250 million public offering of senior unsecured notes with maturity in 2019. The notes bear an interest of 6.25% per annum, the net proceeds are $244.3 million, which used to partly finance the acquisition of…

Michael Gregos

Analyst

Thank you Tony. Turning to slide 5 of the presentation, I will review some recent financial highlights. This was another productive quarter, in which we grew our fleet and diversified our capital base with a $250 million senior secured note giving us additional financial flexibility. Our conservative capital structure at the time of our IPO has allowed us to fund our latest vessel acquisition from our sponsor entirely with cash on hand, and that’s attractively priced with a 6.25% coupon. In addition, we are pleased that the largest portion of our new notes was absorbed by high quality institutional investors. Our results for the third quarter and nine month period ended 30th September, were in line with our expectations supported by outstanding operational and a wonderful performance and 100% utilization. In June and September of this year, we acquired two 2013 built LNG carriers. Therefore the number of vessels in our fleet at the end of the quarter was five LNG carriers whereas the average number of vessels in our fleet for the third quarter was 4.1 vessels. For the third quarter of 2014, the partnership generated distributable cash flow of 16.3 million, adjusted EBITDA of 22.6 million, and net income of 14 million. Adjusted net income, which is net income adjusted for non-cash time charter high amortization into the third quarter, amounted to 14.3 million. Adjusted EPS for the third quarter of 2014 amounted to $0.40 per common unit. For the nine month period ended September 30th, we reported distributable cash flow of 41.2 million adjusted net income of 37 million, and adjusted EBITDA of 56.1 million. Interest and finance cost for the nine month period amounted to 7.5 million, which was broken down in 6.7 million interest cost, 394,000 in amortization of deferred financing fees, and 360,000 in…

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Thank you Michael. Let’s move to slide 9 to summarize the partnerships profile. Following the Yenisei River acquisition, the coverage age of our five LNG carriers is about 4.9 years in an industry, where expected use for economic lifetime is 35 years. We have a strong and diversified customer base with investment grade counterparties the BG Group, Gazprom and Statoil, these charters are leaders in their field and only work with the top performing service providers. Moving on to slide 10, our fleet currently consist of five LNG carriers, four of which have high class ice class 1A notation, our fleet is fully contracted in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and also for the majority of 2017, at which time we expect the LNG shipping market should be very strong. We are the only company in the world with the capability and experience in charters in transit in the Northern Sea Route. Our multi-year fleet employment profile diversified first class customer’s base and a staggered maturity of our charges provide solid cash flow visibility going forward. Let’s move to slide 11, we tend to continue to focus on accretive growth going forward. As you may know, we have the right to purchase from our sponsor, add further five optional vessels, so we have a large sponsor, asset base and substantial dropdown growth potential. Three of those vessels are already on the water and trading, and the remaining two are under construction with delivery in 2015. All optional vessels are high specification, ice class, winterized and extremely versatile. These optional vessels include two vessels already chartered to first class customers, with an average five years employment. Of the two chartered vessels, one is chartered to our existing charter at Gazprom and one is chartered to Cheniere. Our sponsor’s is confidently evaluating new…

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much indeed. We now begin the question and answer session, [Operator Instructions]. Your first question from Credit Suisse, comes from the line of Gregory Lewis, your line is now open. Gregory Lewis – Credit Suisse: Thank you and good afternoon gentlemen. Tony, if you wouldn’t mind, could you provide a little bit more color background on, I mean clearly you guys are confident in 2017, tight market in the LNG space, could you balance that against what we’re seeing lately in terms of lower commodity prices, major oil companies, delaying CapEx programs. I guess, what are the companies or your customers saying to you and what gives you that level of confidence that these projects come at a timely fashion, as opposed to if it’s a 2017 project being delayed to ‘19 or ‘20?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Okay yes, well first of all we base most of our forecast on projects that are either construction, or the – has been taken. So we needed a high probability of those volumes actually coming on stream. And regarding, I mean regardless of commodity prices, these volumes will have to be transported. In LNG it’s difficult to reduce production volumes up and running, but from that point of view, we feel that we’ve been quite conservative in our forecast going forward. Interestingly enough, when we’re on the project, we have seen in the short-term markets which the partners are not involved in, but we have seen a tremendous development during the last couple of months there. So although commodity prices have been down, we have seen basically an all-time short-term fixed activity in that space, and also charter rates pointing upwards. So I think that these two factors underlines our confidence in the market going forward, first of all, as you said that the forecast that we’re using for the production is either under construction or – and as well, we’ve seen the short-term market that the revolving oil prices haven’t had any, haven’t led to reducing activity of LNG carriers. Gregory Lewis – Credit Suisse: Okay, great. And just following up on your comment on the – I’m hearing an echo, but – so bear with me. So the Clean Planet is a vessel that’s traded in the stock market. I’m assuming that’s the vessel that you’re referring to that’s having opportunities. If you could just provide a little bit of, any color you can shed on the Clean Planet and given the strength of this market in the near medium term. Is that an opportunity for the parent company or locking the Clean Planet on a long-term contract as the potential lead third dropped down candidate in to Dynagas?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Yes all the optional vessels on a sponsor level, there are two vessels that are already completed in the water and trading the Clean Ocean and the Clean Planet. And both of those vessels were fixed almost immediately out of the odds to carry short-term, well to do short-term trading for oil majors and traders. Since we are very confident in 2015 and 2016 in terms of that the markets will improve. We feel it’s very prudent to trade those vessels in the short-term market until we can secure a good contract in 2015 or so for long-term employment that would qualify the vessels for dot com candidates into the partnership. Gregory Lewis – Credit Suisse: Okay. Thank you very much.

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you sir. Now from Morgan Stanley your next question comes from the line of [indiscernible]. Your line is now open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you for taking my question. So just a quick follow-up on the tendering activity, so you think for these like large 2016, 2017 projects, the tendering activity will start in 2015, can you maybe give us like some idea that the first half of the year, second half, and so like how you expect that to develop?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

We are already seeing tender activity at this moment. And that is for commencement, some in 2015, some in 2016 and also 2017, and also further out as in ‘18, ‘19, so I think that the process of charter securing vessels going for forward volumes have already started.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And is that a sort of rates that you’d imagine that you were thinking about, or would you like want to wait till the market tightens just a bit so that you could get better rates there?

Michael Gregos

Analyst

Yeah, we would prefer to wait because we’re seeing a tremendous activity at this moment. So – also we do estimate that in 2015 and 2016 that we may see an aggregate of 74 million tons of LNG coming on stream and that is tremendous amount. So we do expect that to have an impact. So I think rating is good.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And just like one further question on the Russian – the sanctions and all these issues with the Russians in Russian energy markets and with the west. Have you had any effect on your business there or do you, if you could maybe give us some color on how you see that developing?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

No we have not had any effect at all on our business. This is sanctions in post – have been more on an individual level and for companies involved in forward production. So that hasn’t affected us at all.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Well that was it from me. Thank you very much.

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. Now from Merrill Lynch your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter. Your line is now open. Ken Hoexter – Merrill Lynch: Great. Good morning. Sorry, good afternoon there. Can you talk to me about ten year charts, it looks like demand doesn’t outstrip supply until even after 2018 in your chart. So can you just kind of review why you don’t see maybe the pricing pressure continuing until a couple of years from now?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Yeah I mean we’re assuming a pricing upward price all right. We – Ken Hoexter – Merrill Lynch: I guess – in your chart on page 14, it looks like your demand is kind of meeting your supply, so it would mean that you’re not seeing that, the pricing upward pressure yet, I guess to that point?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

I mean the – this graph, there can be understood in a couple of ways. If you look at the – as what it’s carved out, existing uncommitted vessels. Right, that you’ll see already from now are increasingly growing in terms of units. These are vessels that are on average old and small. So actually we believe that already from 2015-2016 the vessels that are modern and large will be very, very attractive. We think it’s very likely that the charters will program good, efficient, large vessels for term. And the vessels that are coming off charter in a short-term market, that will dominate. So we are actually quite confident already now going into next year from that point of view. Also, one thing that has not been so well, let’s say or so clearly stated in the production table above, is that its actual capacity coming on stream. So while we see end of 2016 into 2017 between 32 almost 60 million tons of LNG, actual capacity shows that within into 2016 we may have as much as 74 million tons of new LNG coming. So this – so basically we are very confident that the market will tick up quite eminently going forward. And by that, I mean in particular in 2015 and 2016. Ken Hoexter – Merrill Lynch: Wonderful. I appreciate that, another thought on the, I guess over the weekend in the journal there was kind of details of the Russian and Chinese pipeline agreement for that gas, does that impact your thoughts on demand capacity, global trade, on – at all?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

It does, I mean we view that in a very positive way. Some time back, it was the top big Chinese shale gas was widely discussed, would China be sufficient by their own shale gas. And I think that obesity of clearly underlines that China do not feel confident at all in relying on their own shale gas. So I think this is a very positive news and I think it’s, I think it signals that China, as a country, would rely much more on clean energy and to a large extent gas. So the more gas that has been used in the infrastructure in general that’s good news for us. Ken Hoexter – Merrill Lynch: Okay just like on the dividend, you kind of stated upside, downside in terms of what you could, given the dropdown vessel. Given that in terms and weakening on the vessel, what determines your upside on the dividend versus the bottom-end of that range?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Well it basically depends on the finance; we’re going to fall in universal shale, early December. Our next dropdown will be primarily issued with equity, our last dropdown, the Yenisei River, was nearly old debt. So we would like to normalize our capital structure at lower levels, we can expect, let’s say, higher percent – percents of equity on our next bill. So it really depends on what, on the financing terms, whether you’re on those debt side, on the equity issue. So I think these are the main parameters I guess. Ken Hoexter – Merrill Lynch: Okay, wonderful. And then are these in your vessels so that you have chartered are you’re already seeing volumes from Sabine Pass, has that already begun moving from that region?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

No, it has not started moving yet, we expect it to move in 2015, that’s when it will start moving. Ken Hoexter – Merrill Lynch: Alright, I appreciate the time.

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much indeed. [Operator Instructions] And your next question from Deutsche Bank from the line of Amit Mehrotra, your line is now open. Amit Mehrotra – Deutsche Bank: Yeah great, thank you very much. Posted very smooth and consistent performance so congrats for that. My first question is, last quarter you mentioned that dropdowns would average about every six months or so, you said that was a relatively good assumption. That implies the next one in March or April time is that sort of still the timeframe for the next dropdown and do you see opportunity to maybe accelerate the pace of that?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Yeah, I mean the exact timing we don’t know, it also depends on the market conditions, but yeah for us, as soon as we can. Amit Mehrotra – Deutsche Bank: Okay, and just a follow-up with respect to the vessel, the Clean Planet, the contract terms changed from to be determined, to trading stock market. I totally understand wanting to exploit the strength in the stock market, but with respect to the partnership it’s a little bit of a balance obviously, between maximizing cash flow and having visibility. So I just want to confirm that the expectation would be to get those fixed for longer period next year at hopefully higher rates. And then also, what is the minimum contract length that you would need to see for it to be acceptable for the partnership vis-à-vis acquiring those assets?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Okay, so we absolutely expect to charter these vessels on term contracts and to drop them down into the partnership. And when it comes to length of period, we are typically exploring the 5 to 10 year region. Amit Mehrotra – Deutsche Bank: Okay, great, thanks very much guys.

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. And there are no further questions at this point. I shall pass the floor back for closing remarks.

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

We would like to thank you for your time and for listening in on our earnings call, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And with many thanks to our speakers today, that does conclude the conference. Thank you all for participating, you may now disconnect. Thank you gentlemen.