Kevin Yeaman
Analyst · Avondale Partners
Thanks, Murray. Good afternoon. Today I would like to discuss the changes taking place in our industry, and the opportunities they present for Dolby. Dolby’s role in the entertainment industry is to provide the products, services, tools and technologies that capture, deliver and render the highest quality experience for the artist and consumer. We have a 45 year track record of delivering technologies and helping to define the standards in leading entertainment channels, including Cinema, Optical Disk, and Digital Broadcast. Today, the industry we serve is an inflection point. We have moved from a world of 100s of millions of playback devices shipped annually, to that of billions of devices. From PCs and televisions, to Smartphones and Tablets, vertically all of these devices are connected, and many can capture and publish content as well. And if content can be captured from many more endpoints, and then distributed and played back across a greater number of devices, consumers have the ability to access and consume content vertically anywhere, anytime. These trends present Dolby with increasing opportunities to enable the optimal quality and consistency of audio and video content streams. Let me start by discussing our core audio business and the opportunities we have ahead. Today we are seeing a shift in our core audio business from optical disk playback to digital broadcast in the media content. We have already seen this reflected in the composition of our licensing revenue. In fiscal 2011, we estimate that 52% of licensing came from non-optical disk base revenue, compared to 45% in fiscal 2010. This includes revenue from products such as TVs, set-top boxes, mobile phones, as well as our post processing technologies on a wide range of devices. Disk revenue grew 22% in fiscal 2010, and 27% year-over-year in fiscal 2011. We continue to see growth opportunities in areas such broadcast and emedia, even as overall optical disk matures. The remaining 48% of licensing revenue comes mainly from Windows7, ISV, DVD, and Blu-ray, and is primarily driven by the support of optical disk. However, most of these products received content over mobile and online networks, in addition to optical disk, and we are increasingly extending our technologies in to this [inaudible]. It is also worth noting that we expect the industry decline of optical disk to be gradual, given that Blu-rays growing and DVDs still remain a popular PC platform for many around the world. We believe that the trends in digital broadcast and emedia will enable us to grow our core audio business, and I would like to spend a moment talking about each. In digital broadcast, the world continues to transition to digital and HD, and we see the adoption of our technologies increasing globally with this trend. Through our products, services and technologies, we help the broadcast industry deliver a high quality and consistent surround sound experience. As a result, our broadcast solutions continue to be adopted by leading cable, satellite and IPTD providers around the world. With well over 200 million TVs and 200 million set-top boxes shipped each year, this remains a significant opportunity for Dolby. In fiscal 2011, approximately 60% of worldwide GB shipments, and 40% of worldwide set-top box shipments contained our technologies, indicating a significant opportunity still ahead. The trend towards emedia is also a significant opportunity. In other media platforms, such as optical disk or broadcast, there’s been a degree of top down control that content creators and distributors have had over the consumer experience. These channels have been a case of one to many, where the format is established upstream and the devices are built to a uniform standard. This has enabled the industry to send one reel, one file or one signal to a fairly uniformed playback eco system. The result has been a fairly consistent quality experience within each platform. In emedia, the industry is now dealing with one-to-one delivery. Where the content creator and service provider see their content delivered to an increasingly heterogeneous ecosystem of devices, few of which have the same profiles or capabilities. As people increasingly consume content from a variety of portable devices, content creators and service providers are seeking to differentiate by offering the best quality audio consistently across many devices. This means providing them the infrastructure that captures their vision, and the technologies that enable the optimal playback experience, wherever and however consumers interact with their content. To achieve this, we are focused on two objectives. First we are working with content creators and service providers to adopt our tools and formats for the encoding and delivery of emedia content in efficient multichannel sound. We believe this enables them to offer an optimized audio experience across an increasingly complex array of portable devices. We have made excellent progress in this area. With our formats now adopted in the Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Zoodoo, and [inaudible] platforms. In the last quarter, Dolby Digital Plus achieved support for HD movies and best buy cinema [inaudible] service. Across these services, we estimate that there are tens of thousands of pieces of content formatted in Dolby multichannel. Second, we are focused on growing the adoption of our technologies by leading manufacturers of connected portable devices and are making progress. We have recently entered into a licensing agreement with Samsung, enabling them to use Dolby Mulitichannel technologies in their handsets and tablets. We expect this agreement to contribute to the growth of our mobile in fiscal 2012. We estimate that we recognize royalties for our Dolby MultiChannel technologies on about 4% of industry Smartphone shipments in fiscal 2011, and we expect this to increase too low to mid-teens in fiscal 2012. By 2015, it is estimated that there will be 1.5 billion portable connected devices. Our goal is to extend our technology throughout this ecosystem, deliver the highest quality experience, consistency across all portable devices for each playback environment. To achieve this, we are investing in our core audio portfolio to develop the technologies and tools the industry requires to deliver the best possible experience, whether it is through broadcast, emedia, or cinema. In emedia, this means investing in our core audio technologies to meet the demands of a dynamic and evolving industry. Our customers are increasingly having to support a more complex ecosystem, with multiple operating systems in chip sets, multiple content streams in distribution formats, and a variety of user applications and playback capabilities. To meet these needs, we are investing in the content tools and playback platforms. We also continue to evolve our offerings and introduce new features that provide for the best possible experience across each [inaudible] case. In cinema, the advent of 3D is generating strong interest from the industry for the next generation audio experience. We are excited to be working with the industry, and our early demostratrations are receiving a enthusiastic response. I would now like to turn to discussing our investments in the area of video and voice, which we believe represent attractive new growth opportunities. We believe we can draw on our expertise and signal processing, compression technology and the capture and render process to improve the video experience. Over the last few years, we have assembled a leading video team with expertise in the capture and display of video content. We believe that there are significant gaps in the technology used to deliver premium video to today’s displays, and our team has identified solutions to some of these problems. One area of focus has been improving the dynamic range and color gamit of video. To achieve this, we launched the Dolby Professional Reference Monitor, which recently won the Hollywood Post Alliance Engineering Excellence Award. There have been a number of motion pictures using the Dolby Pro Monitor in post-production, including the social network, the art of flight, and the upcoming feature, the Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, as well as the restoration of Raiders Of The Lost Ark, Apocalypse Now, and 101 Dalmatians. We continue to focus on the delivery of full resolution consumer 3D over bandwidth constraint platforms, such as broadcast and online. To date, the delivery of full resolution 3D over these platforms has been a challenge for the industry. As a result, content creators who have spent a lot of money developing high quality 3D content, must see it delivered in low resolution over broadcast and online. We believe we have developed a solution to this problem, and are making progress towards its adoption. More broadly, we are focused on delivering the products, tools and technologies needed for video professionals to capture and deliver more rich and vivid video, and licensing our technologies to manufacturers, so that their displays can take full advantage of this content. Finally, we have also identified opportunities to improve voice communications. By leveraging our expertise in sound captures, signal processing, delivery and playback. Business communications is becoming more important as companies strive to support remote collaboration and working efficiency. However, in many of these high value use cases, the audio performance does not support natural productive meetings. It is now possible to deliver audio quality that is much better than current voice services. We are investing and developing the next generation of communications technologies that deliver more effective collaboration, and we are working closely with initial potential customers on solutions. In summary, we believe our core audio business is strong. We continue to see growth opportunities as the world transition to digital broadcast, and as emedia leads to a world of billions of connected playback devices. Building on the foundation of our strong core business, we also have exciting opportunities in the areas of video and voice that we believe can contribute additional long-term growth. Finally, before I turn the call over to Q&A, let me just briefly comment on the news of Murray’s anticipated retirement in calendar year 2012. Murray has begun discussing his plans with me, and there will of course be a time and a place to thank Murray for his contribution to Dolby. But for now, I look forward to Murray’s continued work with us in 2012, and I appreciate his commitment to being actively involved in the transition sometime over the coming year. And with that, operator, I will turn it over to questions.