Uzi Yemin
Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.
That's a great one, Doug. Let's -- and by the way, I read your note about the new Golden Age. I would even call it Diamond Age. We're not too sure our ages now, you and I. But when we spoke about Rita and Katrina, we thought, hey, wow, this is crazy. And then it lasted three, four weeks. Now we are into this thing. And I don't know, $80 distillate crack. Now big picture, the war in Ukraine in my mind is not going to end tomorrow morning. And even if it ends tomorrow morning, there will be some time before things pick up in Ukraine or in Russia, I'm sorry. At the same time, there were a lot of closures of refineries, including here in the U.S. And the crude situation didn't get much better because of the downturn and because of the lack of investments. So I think what will happen now as producers still, we hear a capital discipline. But $100, you'll say one day capital disciplined, the second day. And then after a week, it start to loosen up and so on. That's what we see immediately from the small guys on our gathering. So what we will see in the U.S. is picking up -- in our mind, picking up of drilling, and that will lead to differentials widening up. That's on top of the ESG movement, which we all know exist. And ESG, and we all know that, if you run LIFO with build, your emission, your greenhouse emission is much lower than when you run heavy sour crude. So I think that there will be a push for that as well in the U.S. So overall, I think that you'll note and your timing was just spot on looking at the industry, I think we're right for a good 12, 18 months ahead of us.