Ezra Uzi Yemin
Analyst · Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs
This is great question, Neil. I think we spoke about this several times in the past. Unfortunately for me I'm being recorded every quarter. So, I think we all spoke about the idea that our Midland Brent will widen toward the end of the year. I honestly didn't expect to see the $6 or season change that we're seeing. Was expecting to see lower than that, but we'll take it as long as the market gives us that opportunity. One key point that we need to remember on this idea is that Mars, starting the third quarter, and that benefited our company big time, Mars is still more expensive than Midland by almost $2 or $1.50 today, I think. So, the benefit for the Midland Brent is mainly for the large-width crude refineries. But I'll leave to that with that comment. Do I believe that this will stay $6, $7? Probably not. Do we think it will go to $4, $5? Probably yes, long-term. What will dictate that is obviously, one big thing, the export. While we're getting - people are very focused on the offtake capacity, the barrel or the Midland barrel needs to clear itself either at the Gulf or outside the U.S. And at the Gulf, I think that you know better than I do that there's limited capacity. Over time, you can increase it. But for this moment, there's limited capacity. Also, there's limited capacity for export at this point. Obviously, people are working on that. So, for the short and the next few months, it will stay we think wide and after that, it may normalize towards $4, $5. In terms of the local market index, that's a great question. It depends on the market itself. But we just need to remember that our competing market, if you will, are pipelines and these pipelines for the most part is coming from the Gulf. So as long as the Gulf Coast refineries will see the crack spread not as great as they see it today because of this market situation or because of the market situation, we are in good shape. Also, please remember that in West Texas, we integrated the terminals that DKL used to have with the ALJ operation. So, the margins that we're seeing in West Texas are pretty good, and we hope to continue to see them. In the month of October, that margin was $3.20 so continues to be very strong. I hope I answered extensively enough to cover every aspect of your question, Neil.