Earnings Labs

Donegal Group Inc. (DGICA)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 26, 2023

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Transcript

Karin Daly

Management

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. This morning, Donegal Group issued its third quarter 2023 earnings release outlining its results. The release and a supplemental investor presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of Donegal's website at www.donegalgroup.com. Please be advised that today's conference was pre-recorded (Operator Instructions). Note that we have incorporated responses for many of the questions we received directly into management's remarks. Speaking today will be President and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Burke; Chief Financial Officer, Jeff Miller; Chief Underwriting Officer, Jeff Hay; and Chief Investment Officer, Tony Viozzi. Please be aware that statements made during this call that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements and necessarily involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to vary materially. These factors can be found in Donegal Group's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. The Company disclaims any obligation to update or publicly announce the results of any revisions that they may make to any forward-looking statements to reflect the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events or circumstances after the date of such statements. With that, it is my pleasure to turn it over to Mr. Kevin Burke. Kevin?

Kevin Burke

Management

Thank you, Karin, and welcome everyone. We are pleased to provide an update today on many of the strategic initiatives we have in flight, as we execute an intentional strategy to improve our financial performance, modernize our operations and put us in a position to grow profitably as economic conditions begin to stabilize. Donegal's third quarter of 2023 showed significant disparity between business segments. While we saw significant improvement in our commercial lines segment results, our personal lines segment results continued to reflect the ongoing impact of inflationary pressures in several lines of business, with the largest impact in personal automobile, as claim severity remained at historically high levels due primarily to higher repair and replacement costs. We experienced an increase in the frequency of severe weather events throughout our regions during the quarter. None of these events generated an accumulation of losses that exceeded our catastrophe retention level. But the active weather patterns, coupled with ongoing inflationary impacts on repair and labor costs, generated the highest weather-related loss ratio we reported in any quarterly report going back to 2018. On a positive note, we saw a significant decline in large commercial fire losses in the third quarter of 2023, as well as an improvement in our core loss ratios in each of the major commercial lines of business lines. Jeff Hay will provide further details on our individual segment and line of business results later in the call. Moving to business drivers impacting premium revenues, we began non-renewing all commercial policies in the states of Georgia and Alabama during the third quarter, which was the start of a process that will continue over the next several quarters that we expect will have significant favorable impact on our operating results moving forward. The primary strategy we are deploying to offset…

Jeffrey Miller

Management

Thanks, Kevin. Net premiums earned increased 8.9% to $224.4 million for the third quarter of 2023. Net premiums written increased by 6.3%, with accelerating premium rate increases and strong retention offset partially by lower new business volume and planned attrition in states we are exiting or have targeted for profit improvement. Rate increases achieved during the third quarter were in double-digit percentages for all major lines of business except workers' compensation, averaging 11.8% overall and 13.4% excluding workers' comp. The combined ratio of 104.5% for the third quarter of 2023 was a significant improvement from the 109.6% combined ratio for the prior-year quarter, with both periods reflecting elevated weather-related losses. Our core loss ratio decreased by over 4 percentage points from the prior-year quarter, and the remaining improvement related to a significant decline in large commercial fire losses that was partially offset by higher weather-related losses. Weather-related losses were $25.7 million, or 11.5 percentage points over the loss ratio for the third quarter of 2023, compared to $19.4 million, or 9.4 percentage points for the third quarter of 2022. The weather impact was heavily weighted toward the homeowners line of business, with $16.1 million of losses contributing 49.2 percentage points to the third quarter homeowners loss ratio. The impact to commercial property was $8.8 million, or 17.5 points of that line's loss ratio. Our insurance subsidiaries did not incur losses from any single event that exceeded their $3 million catastrophe reinsurance retention with Donegal Mutual during the third quarter. Higher frequency of localized storm events drove the total quarterly weather claim impact higher than the previous 5-year average of 9.3 percentage points for the third quarter. Large fire losses which we define as over $50,000 in damages contributed 4.9 percentage points to the loss ratio for the third quarter of…

Jeffery Hay

Management

Thanks, Jeff. During the third quarter of 2023, we continued to navigate a challenging environment, facing both ongoing economic headwinds and an increased frequency of severe weather events. Our results for the quarter reflected a continuation of strategic initiatives to run off targeted underperforming accounts while selectively writing new accounts. We are continuing to push rate increases and numerous underwriting initiatives to improve the profitability of the overall business. While this effort is underway, we are actively positioning Donegal for future growth, particularly as market trends return to normal and we are achieving targeted profit levels. We intend to remain an active market participant for profitable new business with an intense focus on prudent risk selection and margin expansion as we utilize our advanced analytics to appropriately price risks and optimize our mix of business. We have identified the most profitable opportunities from an industry, geographic, line of business and customer segment perspective with target mix percentages for each, and we are poised to grow in these profitable market segments as overall conditions improve. Commercial net written premiums decreased by approximately 2% during the quarter, reflecting in large part the non-renewal of commercial accounts located in Georgia and Alabama, as Kevin mentioned earlier, as well as other intentional actions by our frontline underwriters to move away from underperforming individual accounts and classes of business. Excluding the impact of our strategic non-renewal actions in Georgia and Alabama, commercial net premiums written increased approximately 7% in the quarter primarily due to significant increases in rate averaging nearly 13%, excluding workers' compensation. That's coupled with strong retention and modest levels of conservatively underwritten new business premium. We will continue to emphasize property rate increases in the fourth quarter of 2023 and into 2024 as well as driving the highest rate levels in areas…

Vincent Viozzi

Management

Thank you, Jeff. We are happy to report $10.5 million of net investment income for the third quarter of 2023, which is our sixth consecutive quarter of higher investment income. This 23% increase from the same period last year, was primarily reflective of an increase in average investment yield as compared to the prior-year period. During the third quarter of 2023, the average tax-equivalent yield was 3.22%, up from 2.66% from the same period in 2022, and reaching the highest level of yields we have seen in the last decade. Short-term cash rates, close to 5.25%, were higher than we achieved in both the preceding quarter and the third quarter of 2022. Of note, the average bond reinvestment yield was 5.46%, or approximately 175 basis points higher than the bond yields coming off the books in the third quarter. We continued to strategically shift our investment mix from equities, corporate bonds and municipal bonds into U.S. treasuries and agencies, as well as mortgage-backed securities. This shift will provide a more favorable risk-return profile and should perform well in both the short and long term. Net investment losses were $1.2 million for the third quarter of 2023 compared to $2.4 million in the prior-year period. Losses in both periods were primarily related to unrealized losses in the fair value of equity securities we held at September 30. As a reminder, our equity portfolio continues to represent a very modest 2.7% of our total investments, in line with our equity holdings at December 31, 2022, but down from 3.6% of our portfolio 1 year ago. We will maintain our conservative investing approach, limiting our equity exposure due to the current volatile nature of the U.S. equity markets amid current world events. During the first 9 months of the year, after-tax unrealized losses within our available for sale bonds lowered our book value per share by $0.32, leading to book value per share of $14.26 at September 30, 2023, compared to $14.79 at December 31, 2022. With that, I will now turn it back to Kevin for closing remarks.

Kevin Burke

Management

Thanks, Tony. I would like to take a moment to thank our dedicated staff members for their ongoing, tireless efforts during this time of strategic transformation for Donegal. And of course, thanks to our stockholders for your continued interest and support. I look forward to speaking to you in the next call, in February 2024. I'll now turn the call back to Karin.

A - Karin Daly

Operator

Thank you, Kevin. I would like to move into our question-and-answer session. In advance of today's call, we requested and received questions from interested parties, and while we answered many of the questions within management's prepared remarks, we will address a few of the questions directly. The first question is relating to workers' compensation. Can you talk more broadly about your updated view on the workers' comp market, both from a pricing, competitive landscape, and pair it with loss cost trends?

Jeffery Hay

Management

This is Jeff Hay. I can take that one. Workers' compensation continues to be the most profitable line of business for us. In fact, we are taking specific actions to grow the mix of workers' compensation within our commercial segment. And while medical inflation remains largely in check, we have seen some recent upward pressure on indemnity severity due to higher wage inflation. But since wages are the exposure base for premiums in this line of business, we believe we are well-positioned for this upward pressure on severity. The market itself for workers' comp remains highly competitive as we are far from the only carrier to be experiencing profit within the line and to be looking for ways to write more of it.

Karin Daly

Management

The second question relates to commercial auto. Can you provide an update on where the commercial auto line is from a rate adequacy perspective?

Jeffery Hay

Management

We have made good progress in commercial auto profitability over the past several years. And this has been the result of a lot of hard work to regain rate adequacy in a line of business that's been very challenging for the entire industry over the last decade. And we expect our exit from the commercial market in Georgia will further improve our commercial auto results over time. We're very pleased with the progress that we have made, but will continue to take rate and non-rate actions to stay ahead of the continuing inflationary trends in both liability and physical damage losses.

Karin Daly

Management

And one last question on the investment portfolio. Can you remind us how much of your portfolio you expect to be reinvested over the next 12 months? Tony?

Vincent Viozzi

Management

Sure, Karin. Looking at our current cash flow projections for 2024, we estimate that approximately $94 million of our bond portfolio will become available for reinvestment during the next calendar year. Those investments are currently yielding around 3.60%. So we should be able to reinvest those funds at higher yields if market interest rates remain higher for longer, as many now expect.

Karin Daly

Management

Thank you for those responses. If there are any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to us. This now concludes the Donegal Group third quarter 2023 earnings webcast. Thank you and have a great day.