Earnings Labs

Dollar General Corporation (DG)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Tue, Dec 11, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the Dollar General Corporation Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call on Tuesday, December 11, 2012, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time. Good morning, and thank you for participating in today's call, which is being recorded by Conference America. No other recordings or rebroadcasts of this session are allowed without the company's permission. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Ms. Mary Winn Gordon, Dollar General's Vice President of Investor Relations and Public Relations.

Mary Winn Gordon

Management

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. On the call today are Rick Dreiling, our Chairman and CEO; and David Tehle, our CFO. We will first go through our prepared remarks and then we will open up the call for questions. Our earnings release for the quarter can be found on our website at dollargeneral.com under Investor Information, Press Releases. Let me caution that today's comments will include forward-looking statements about our expectations, plans, objectives, anticipated financial and operating results and other non-historical matters. Our 2012 forecasted financial results and initiatives, anticipated capital expenditures and our plans, operating and merchandising initiatives for fiscal 2013 and comments regarding expected consumer economic trends are some examples of forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included in our earnings release issued this morning; our 2011 10-K, which was filed on March 22, 2012; and in the comments that are made on this call. We encourage you to read these. You should not unduly rely on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today's date. Dollar General disclaims any obligation to update or revise any information discussed in this call. We will also reference certain financial measures not derived in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in this morning's earnings release. The information is not a substitute for the GAAP measures and may not be comparable to similar-titled measures of other companies. Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Rick.

Richard Dreiling

Management

Thank you, Mary Winn. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us. Today, we plan to discuss the results of our third quarter, update you on our outlook for the fourth quarter and provide a preview on some of our major initiatives for 2013. We are pleased with our sales and earnings for the third quarter. Our performance has been encouraging over the Thanksgiving weekend and start of the holiday season. However, we continue to be cautious for the remainder of the year. Our customer tends to buy closer to need and that tendency is even more pronounced around the holidays. I'd like to share a few highlights from the third quarter, and then David will provide more detail on our financial results. Our total sales increased 10.3% over last year to $3.96 billion. Same-store sales grew 4%, and both customer traffic and average ticket in our comp stores increased for the 19th consecutive quarter. For the 39-week year-to-date period, same-store sales were at -- were up 5.3%. Operating profit increased 16% to $361 million for a record for the third quarter of 9.1% of sales, up 47 basis points from last year due to 58 basis points of SG&A leverage offset by 11 basis point decrease in gross margin. Interest expense was down $11 million. Adjusted net income increased 22% to $210 million, and adjusted earnings per share increased 26% to $0.63. Also during the quarter, we repurchased 296 million of our own common stock, increasing our year-to-date repurchases to $596 million. These are very solid results, and I'm very pleased with our team's ability to produce sales, manage our operating expenses and improve our capital structure in what we view is an uncertain external operating environment. In the third quarter, same-store sales growth was driven by…

David Tehle

Management

Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. As Rick said, we're pleased with our third quarter results. Total sales increased 10.3% to $3.96 billion, with same-store sales up 4%. Our total sales were impacted by later-than-expected store openings in the second and third quarters and resulted in slower ramp-up of sales weeks. Our gross profit rate was 30.9% for the quarter, down 11 basis points from last year's third quarter rate and slightly below our expectations. Higher markdowns, lower price increases compared to last year, a higher consumables mix and higher shrink all pressured gross margin. These factors were partially offset by higher incoming markups and improved transportation efficiencies. Actual fuel rates were up about 6% from last year, and we achieved leverage on transportation from a reduction in stem miles and improved cartons per truck. Our LIFO charge this quarter was nominal at less than $100,000 versus an $11 million provision in the 2011 third quarter as we've seen moderation in cost increases this year. Another notable item affecting our gross margin was our shrink performance. While our total shrink units per store improved, our financial shrink increased due to an increased loss of SKUs greater than $5 at retail. While they're experiencing greater shrink, overall, these high-value SKUs are driving increased sales and higher margin dollars. In the second half of 2013, we expect their trend of shrink improvement to resume as we roll out our new merchandising strategy such as defensive fixtures and labeling and we expand existing tactics to combat shrink. SG&A improved by 58 basis points, with 21.8% of sales, with most of this due to increased retail labor efficiencies. Workers compensation and general liability expenses increased at a rate lower than the increase in sales. The decrease in incentive compensation also contributed to the…

Richard Dreiling

Management

Thank you, David. Looking forward to 2013, we're putting plans in place that continue to build on our commitment to our 4 key operating priorities: driving productive sales growth, increasing gross margin, leveraging process improvement and information technology to reduce costs and strengthening and expanding Dollar General's culture of serving others. We're still in the process of wrapping up our plans for 2013, but I wanted to share a few of our more significant initiatives with you today. Let's start with our first priority of driving productive sales growth. The returns on our new stores remain some of the best in retail, thanks to the capabilities that we have developed in our real estate model. In 2013, we expect to open approximately 635 new stores, including another 50 stores in California. Our pipeline for new stores is full and ahead of where we were last year. At this point, we do not anticipate facing in 2013 the delay in new store openings and the lag in the store sales weeks that we faced this year. We also plan to continue our remodel and relocation program with an additional 550 stores in 2013. In total, we expect square footage growth of approximately 7% for the fourth consecutive year. We currently expect that about 20 of our new stores in 2013 will be DG Markets and 40 will be Dollar General Plus stores. We are excited about the unique opportunities that these formats provide us. 2012 has been a year of learning for these concepts and we continue to like the potential and flexibility to capture growth in the marketplace that they provide. These additional new stores will provide us with more experience as we look to drive the sales productivity and returns of these formats and to determine the appropriate role…

Mary Winn Gordon

Management

Thank you, Rick. And operator, we will now take the first question, please.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Charles Grom with the Deutsche Bank.

Matthew Siler

Analyst

It's actually Matt for Chuck. He's on a plane. I was hoping we could talk a little bit about the cigarette rollout. It's obviously an important initiative. And just kind of the impact on margins, you said, obviously, it will pressure margins, but some of the puts and takes with how you believe you can execute in terms of gross margins going forward.

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes. Let's talk about cigarettes and what we think is going to happen. We have it in a pretty large test right now. We anticipate the sales comp lift will be greater than what we've seen with beer and wine. We're going to take about 2 quarters to roll it out. You have to remember, we have over 10,000 stores. It's going to take time to get the licenses being done, and we want to do it the right way. In regards to the margin, it is a low-margin category, and we believe that we have initiatives underway that will help offset that. But we'll see margin pressure through the course of the year because of the cigarette rollout. David, I don't have anything...

David Tehle

Management

Yes, the only other thing to say is clearly because of the sales increase we'll get from cigarettes, we should -- it should obviously help us on the SG&A front in terms of SG&A leverage as we look at the year 2. So clearly, impact on margin, negative, but a positive impact on our SG&A and our ability to lever our expenses.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Boss with JPMorgan.

Matthew Boss

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Could you just walk through your gross margin guidance for 4Q, particularly the underlying markdown and mix impact? You talked a little about competition. What are you seeing that's different from 3 months ago that seems to be adding some incremental caution here?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Let me -- I'll discuss the environment and, David, I'll let you take them through the margin. When we went into quarter 3, as I look at the first 2 periods of the quarter, the value messaging, the intensity of the value messaging was increasing. People running more ads, bigger ads, where the actual physical vehicle was larger, trying to attract attention. We saw promotional activity in terms of more coupons, limit 1, limit 2, though with great retails in them. What happened in the last period, we saw outright price increases start showing up in the ad -- decreases, excuse me, show up in the ad. So in other words, the competitive environment in regards to pricing got hotter in October. And as David brought out and I'm going to leave it up to him now, we've made the decision in the fourth quarter, we want to protect our unit growth and we intend to respond to that.

David Tehle

Management

We've said we're going to be flattish in terms of the overall results. We are going to be investing in price strategically, so we will have some selective price decreases. We're relying heavily on zone pricing. We've had zone pricing for a couple of years and we've been fine tuning it. And I think it's becoming more and more of a tool for us to help develop what we want in the model here. And then we will have some increased ad activity overall too. I want to keep in mind here, our overall goal in terms of why we're doing this is for the long-term benefit of Dollar General. We want to drive units and customer loyalty. And again, we believe that driving units and staying true to our EDLP strategy, our EDLP pricing, is very, very important. We've said this many times. We talked about this at our analyst meeting this past summer that those 2 things are going to trump just about everything else in our model. And we're going to stay true to that because we truly believe that will ultimately drive the most shareholder value for Dollar General and quite honestly, the most customer loyalty.

Richard Dreiling

Management

Matt, if I could throw one thing on the table too, we're anticipating a sales mix shift in the fourth quarter also. And we talk a lot about the competitive environment, but I also think there's a change taking place in the customer environment right now. I think the customer's fatigued, they're tired, they're scared. Every time you turn on the television, there's a bunch of guys in a suit who are frowning, telling you that the world's going to go over the fiscal cliff. And as that happens, I think the competitive environment heats up in response as we all try to hold on to the sales that are out there.

Matthew Boss

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Great. And then, real quick, as we look to next year with some of these incremental investments on the table, can you speak to capital allocation priorities and your appetite for potentially increasing share repurchases next year? Is that not something we should be thinking about?

David Tehle

Management

Yes, I think we want to wait a little bit on that. Obviously, we're going to give full guidance as we get out into March of next year when we release our fourth quarter earnings. I will say that our priorities remain the same. As we've said before, our #1 priority for capital is investing in the business because we believe that's the best return for our shareholders, opening new stores, remodeling stores, doing relocations and then building the infrastructure that's necessary to support that. And then our #2 priority remains share repurchase, as you mentioned. So we'll have a little more clarity on that when we give full guidance in March.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Wewer with Raymond James.

Daniel Wewer

Analyst · Raymond James.

So Rick, I was under the impression that the company was reducing inventory purchases heading into the fourth quarter, yet inventory per store at 5.5% entering the fourth quarter is higher than your comp sales guidance. Does this reflect the softness in October and just caught with a little bit extra inventory? And then also, can you talk about the inventory growth we should be thinking about in 2013 with the addition of tobacco and some of these other initiatives?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes. Well, first of all, let me talk a little bit. When I communicated that we were buying down on our inventory, I apologize if I led you to believe that was across the board. We had made a conscious decision to control the buy of seasonal merchandise because we were -- we've been talking for about a year that we think Christmas could be a little tight. And we wanted to maximize our sell-through. It's what we're trying to do is raise our sell-through and lower our markdowns. So I apologize if I misled you that we were buying down on everything. As we move into the fourth quarter, as I look at the inventory, we have a lot of new planograms coming, so we're going to -- that inventory will start arriving in the fourth quarter for next year, also we're buying around the Chinese New Year's. We learned a couple years ago, we want to be very careful with that and not put ourselves in a position we're short to the consumer. Along with those changes in planograms, we also have this change in Phase 5, which is going to add a little bit of inventory. Now in regards, David, to 2013, I don't know that we've necessarily put our arms around the cigarette impact yet.

David Tehle

Management

Yes, I think we're still figuring that out and trying to figure out what the investment in inventory is going to be. And of course, part of that will depend upon how quick we get this initiative executed. So I'd rather hold off on that. I do want to point out though that in the quarter, our total inventory turns were at 5.2x than -- versus last year's turns of 5.1x. So again, we continue to be fairly pleased with what we're doing on inventory. And again, we were up 5.5% on a per-store basis on a 4 comp. But again, that wasn't that much out of line and we continue to watch the inventory turns very, very closely. That's probably the #1 thing we look at. And most of that increase we saw in the quarter was in consumables and, again, items that are -- that continue to move pretty well.

Daniel Wewer

Analyst · Raymond James.

And then David, in your comments, you had indicated that the shrink issue maybe continues through the first half of 2013 and then begins to improve in the second half of that year. But you would also be completing the rollout of tobacco by the second half of 2013 and tobacco has a higher shrink rate than the house average.

David Tehle

Management

Yes, I know, that's right. And obviously, that's something we have to play into our models. Let me tell you some of the things we're doing on shrink that we think will gain traction as we get in to the back half of the year. And I touched very briefly on this, but we're investing more in defensive merchandising, fixtures, spiral pegs, flip-up windows, the anti-theft labels that are on the product that seem to be very, very effective. We're going to the next phase of our exception-based reporting. We're doing more point-of-sale work with that and system tracking to make sure that everybody is using this as they should be. And a preliminary look-see at that in the small test we've run is that's going to be very effective. And then we continue to develop our optimized shrink model on a store-specific basis to data-driven analysis, looking at what individual shrink should be for each of our over 10,000 stores versus where they are today and then taking appropriate action. So I think we've got a lot of things going on and we see traction taking place. And certainly, we hope some of this will offset some of the incremental shrink that we might see out of cigarettes. And you're right, we're well aware that, that's a high-shrink category, and that's all been played into our estimates and our modeling as we've looked at taking on this product.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Colin McGranahan with Bernstein.

Colin McGranahan

Analyst · Bernstein.

I wanted to start kind of big picture. Just in terms of the environment you're seeing in demand, looking at the fiscal cliff but looking at your category sales. In Q3, you actually looks like you saw a little bit of improvement in the seasonal and in home and even in apparel versus consumables that slowed down a little bit. So I guess, first question is how much of that do you think is the uncertainty and what's going on in the demand environment? How much of that is competitiveness in the consumables category specifically?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes, I would look at you and say it's probably a little bit of both. I think people are spending closer to need. But I also think, Colin, it's the easiest to garner sales on the consumables side. Promotional activity tends to go there first. And as a retailer, I mean, I'm not telling you anything you don't know, there's 4 or 5 items, you could pull the trigger on and drive a lot of traffic very quickly. And I think that's what we saw as we moved through October, more and more focus on a handful of key consumable items across the marketplace.

Colin McGranahan

Analyst · Bernstein.

Okay, that's fair. And then in the fiscal cliff specifically, what are your expectations about how that might impact your actual customer in 2013 at this point?

Richard Dreiling

Management

That's -- I mean, that is the million-dollar question. What I have to fall back on and -- what I had to fall back on is we've got 23 -- we're on our 23rd year of same-store sales growth. In tough times, our customers have needed us more. And in good times, they historically have a little bit more to spend. And I think if it does get bad, the customer's going to truly need us, and I think we'll continue to just broaden our base.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Joseph Parkhill with Morgan Stanley.

Joseph Parkhill

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Sorry to belabor this, but just the change in [indiscernible] thinking about cigarettes. Is that -- is it just that your test markets performed better from either a sales or profitability standpoint than you were generally thinking? Or are you also seeing some type of competitive dynamic where stores that overlap with other retailers that are offering cigarettes are performing weaker than the rest of the chain?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Joe, that's a really fair question. And the first thing I'll say is in regards to the sales, they're responding. They're performing about what we thought, maybe a little bit better. I will tell you, the turning moment for me, I spend a lot of time in the stores, was 5 weeks ago, as I'm visiting stores, and between our customers and our store managers that are asking us, "When are we going to put cigarettes in?" And I view this as a response to the needs of our customer and our store managers are communicating they need it, and we made the decision to go forward with it. It is a dying category. It's a category that is going to feel really good for about a year. We've done a really good job of controlling the supply chain. We've done a really good job of managing the flow of the cigarettes into the store and getting them out the door. So we're doing it based on the wants and needs of our store -- what our store managers are telling us our customers want.

Joseph Parkhill

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Okay, great. That's helpful. And then just as far as the deceleration in October in general, have you been able to look at if that's coming more from a lower-income consumer or you're getting less trade-down or anything changing there?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Joe, I can't tell you that. I don't know. I will tell you that we did see an increase in the ad activity through the month of October.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Meredith Adler with Barclays.

Meredith Adler

Analyst · Barclays.

I guess I would like to talk a little bit about this decision to invest in advertising and pricing promotion in the fourth quarter. You talk about that benefiting the long term, but I kind of feel like I've been around a while and it doesn't always do that, that it just sort of -- it's a spiral where everybody starts to beat each other up. How can I get some comfort that, that's not going to happen this time?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes, I think if you want to get some comfort, I would go back and look at the tail end of 2010 when we made the decision as an organization to sacrifice some margin and invest it back into our pricing. And you have to remember, when I talk about investing in our pricing, I'm not saying that we're going to take weekly items down. We're talking about investing in EDLP, taking -- we've seen sensitive items like perhaps coffee or cereal and investing in that category. We're not talking about running coffee here at $1 a can. We're talking about making strategic investments in categories and items on an EDLP basis that are important to our customer. Now we are talking about it running an occasional more ad or so. But again, I want to reinforce our commitment is the EDLP, and if you want to look, if you look at our sales trend, this is very similar to what happened to us a couple of years ago. And you can look and see what immediately happened when we made this commitment in 2011, where the customer responded greatly to it.

Meredith Adler

Analyst · Barclays.

Okay, great. And then a question about apparel. I think you have been very cautious about the amount of hanging apparel, especially women's apparel, that you have in the stores. Are you feeling like sales are slowing or are weaker even than you had anticipated when you put that inventory in place? And what is your outlook, because you're obviously -- have made some decisions for spring and [indiscernible] already? What is your view and what have you done in terms of orders for spring apparel?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes. I would think, in regards to where we are in apparel as I look across the inventory, we might actually be just a little bit better. The promotional cycles that we're running through, I can't tell you, Meredith, but the customer is responding to the promotional cycles. Again, we have to get them to respond when it's not being as heavily promoted. As we look into spring and summer of next year, I think we've pretty much taken the approach we took last year, pretty consistent. We have bought the inventory down, but we bought the amount of inventory we think we can sell.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Scot Ciccarelli with RBC Capital Markets.

Scot Ciccarelli

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Rick, your comments that you've rarely seen weekly sales fluctuate as much as they have recently, a pretty strong statement given your pretty consistently cautious comments on the consumer for a couple of years here. Is it actually more volatile than what you saw in say, 2007, 2008 or is there another period to look at? Or is it just you guys really haven't seen as much volatility historically?

Richard Dreiling

Management

I will tell you that we, historically -- well, we've seen pay cycles changes. As I look at the weeks, and I work at -- look at the periods within a quarter, they flow pretty evenly. And what we're seeing now is vacillation like I've never seen before. The first will be incredibly strong and then the sales will weaken, and then we'll pick up on the 15th and then they'll weaken and it's just a much stronger cycle. And I think, Scot, it's being driven by -- there's so much uncertainty, the customer's trying to hang on as long as they can. And we've actually coined a phrase here, there's more days than there is dollars, it appears like all of a sudden for the customer.

Scot Ciccarelli

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Okay. And then your comments regarding the competitive environment, any more color on where it's coming from? Is some of it from the changes Wal-mart's made? Is it drug, is it grocer? Is it just kind of coming from across the board?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes, I think it's more or less across the board. And certainly, when you look at the weekly inserts, they're more promotional than we've seen in the first quarter and halfway through the second.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Securities.

John Heinbockel

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities.

So a couple of things. The price investments you're talking about, largely consumables, is that right?

Richard Dreiling

Management

That would be a fair assessment.

John Heinbockel

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities.

Okay. Is that a function -- and you said more everyday price. Have you become a little less happy with where you're positioned on a basket? And if so, is that more that others have moved down or -- I don't imagine you guys have moved up too much.

Richard Dreiling

Management

No, I think it's more driven by the fact that we want to protect our unit growth. We're very, very satisfied with unit growth. And what I have told you though is we're looking across all kinds of categories. And if we see unit growth slow somewhere, particularly in a sensitive category, we're going to reinvest back into that category. And our pricing position is consistent as it has always been. We are approximately 40% below drug, 20% below grocery and pretty much have parity with the big-box operators. I view this, John, as Dollar General is doing much what we did 2 years ago and we want to protect what we have.

John Heinbockel

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities.

Fine. And if you look at markdowns and shrink, which of those 2 was more of an issue in the quarter, hit gross more year-over-year?

David Tehle

Management

In the third quarter, it would have been markdowns, John.

John Heinbockel

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities.

Okay. And when you look at those 2 things then, you guys have been buying down to minimize markdowns and I think buying down every subsequent season. When do you think we get to a point where you've bought down enough that, that kind of goes away, the spring? And then on shrink, is -- are there things to be done prior to maybe midyear, more blocking and tackling that can drive some improvement before then?

David Tehle

Management

Well, I'll take the shrink piece of it. We're doing it right now. I mean, all those items that I mentioned, the exception-based reporting, the defensive merchandising fixtures, the optimized shrink model, those are things that are being worked on as we speak right now. And we just think it will take a little time for us to get traction on those items. So that's why we're saying we think the bigger impact on that will take place at the back half of the year.

Richard Dreiling

Management

In regards to the markdowns too, John, not all markdowns are just on the non-consumables side or the apparel side. I mean, we've been doing some investing along the way on consumable items as well. I do think that we are getting better and better on the non-consumables side. While we still have opportunities in hanging apparel, we are making a lot of progress in home and decor, stationery, a lot of those categories we're doing much better in.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ed Kelly with Crédit Suisse.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Rick, I wanted to ask you a follow-up on tobacco. Your competitor gave some pretty good stats on tobacco and the benefit to basket, that type of stuff. Can you maybe give a little bit more color on what you learned in your test markets?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes. I mean, I'll tell you that what we've seen is the basket increases, goes from about $10 to almost $14. By the way, that's a little bit less than the price of the cigarettes. That tells you they leave an item behind to get the cigarettes. We have seen increases in traffic and we're seen a -- add a nice bump in the comp that goes with it.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Any sense as to the percentage of people that are buying tobacco in those stores that are actually new customers to Dollar General?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Okay, that's another good question. It's a little soon for me to know that yet. But I can tell you, we've seen increased traffic.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Okay. And you say that tobacco a one-time bump. Why wouldn't tobacco sales build over time now?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes, I think it's in, Ed, it's in decline. Units are declining every year. The only reason you're seeing an increase is because of price increases for the customer. So my -- yes, and my theory is you're going to get a nice bump for a year, then that bump's going to moderate over time.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Okay. And just one last question for you. On the gross margin, as we think about next year, if we were to exclude tobacco, so pretend that you're not going to launch tobacco, it seems like the gross margin might still be down because the LIFO charge could end up being a little bit of a headwind again. You're talking about investing in price, shrink's not better until the back half, is that the right way to think about it?

David Tehle

Management

Again, we're not giving specific guidance at this point on next year. All I will say is that the tobacco is the overriding factor on what we mentioned on gross margin.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from John Zolidis with Buckingham Research.

John Zolidis

Analyst · Buckingham Research.

Question. Thanks for giving us the monthly cadence during the quarter and also on the guidance, the color around January. I think I'm right in assuming that your guidance for 3% to 4% comp in 4Q assumes a lower comp than that during the month of January. So my question is about your comment on volatility and competitor price actions during the month of October in the context of your characterization of November as encouraging. So in November, did you see a continuation of that volatility or did comps reaccelerate back towards the higher end of that 3% to 4% comp plan, given the difficult comparison in your assumption for January?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes, I think the competitive activity continued in November. We are right where we feel we should be as we're moving through the quarter right now. And again, my concern, Ed, (sic) [John] is the really high comp number we have in January.

John Zolidis

Analyst · Buckingham Research.

Okay. So at a minimum, we're definitely running a little bit better than 3% to 4% with the January expected to be lower than that?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Well, yes, as I said, I'm running right where I thought I would be at this stage of the game and I anticipate the pressure will come in January. We're very comfortable with our guidance of 3% to 4%.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Aram Rubinson with Nomura.

Aram Rubinson

Analyst · Nomura.

Your question -- your comment about competition kind of intrigued me. Competition can come from other channels. It can also come from yourself. Wondering when you -- if you can talk about cannibalization, kind of with the historical perspective of where it's been, what it's running now, how you measure it. And I guess the bottom line, as you mentioned, there's maybe too many days for the dollars, are there too many stores for the dollars in your view?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes, I'll take the last part of that question, and I'll let David handle the tough part. Actually, I don't think there are too many stores. I mean, our research model shows us we can double the size of this chain. I mean, there's over 10,000 opportunities for dollar stores out there. I think it's more a function right now that the consumer is very tight-fisted. I think they're making the purchases they need to make, and I think what we're seeing right now is they're just holding on. And I think it's also fair to say the higher end continues in retail, and it continues to do quite well right now. We're starting to see the other end starting to feel a little bit the pressure on the customer. Again, I always fall back to, even though that pressure's there, that's usually when our customer needs us more. They have less, they need a better bargain and when they have more, they have the ability to spend. David, you want to talk about the cannibalization?

David Tehle

Management

Yes. On the cannibalization, when it occurs, it's usually somewhere around 8%, and we have that played into our models as we open stores and we do all our returns on it, and we haven't seen much change in that overall.

Richard Dreiling

Management

And our new stores are still opening up at the rate they have opened over the last couple of years.

Aram Rubinson

Analyst · Nomura.

And as you look over the years, can you give us a sense as to the proximity of stores that are opening to one another? And is 2013, let's say, greater proximity or more remote?

Richard Dreiling

Management

That's a good question. I really don't have that kind of information in my head. But I would look at you and say I would imagine it's very similar to what it has been in the past, with a nice mix of rural locations as well as some metro locations coming up.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Nemer with Wells Fargo Securities.

Matt Nemer

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Just a quick follow-up on your 2013 sales drivers. Could you just comment on the marginal productivity of the next 2,200 cooler additions versus kind of the impact of cooler additions that we've seen over the last few years? And then secondly, can you quantify the Phase 5 lift to comps?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes, the qualifying -- the Phase 5 lift to comp, it's a little soon yet. But I will tell you, we are as bullish on it as we were Phase 1, 2, 3 and 4, particularly Phase 1 and 2. And we're bullish on it, Matt, because you're adding SKUs, and more importantly, you're getting the best planogram into our legacy stores, which should be worth some legs too. And I can't remember what the first part of his question was. I just [indiscernible]

Matt Nemer

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

The productivity of the next 2,200 cooler additions, how does...

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes. What we've called out was the increase in the basket that we see. And I believe that basket, as I recall, goes from $11 to $17. So again, it's kind of hard to go past that, but we see a nice, nice basket lift.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Deborah Weinswig with Citigroup.

Deborah Weinswig

Analyst · Citigroup.

Just some of the wider -- so if you compare and contrast the discretionary and non-discretionary quarter -- categories as you progress through the quarter, how did you see changes in those, especially as the competitive environment seemed to have heated up?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes. I think that's another good question. I think that as we move through the quarter, the -- we saw more pressure on the consumables toward the end of the quarter as the ad intensity increased and again, I want to reinforce, that's the easiest place to go to drive traffic when you're a consumable retailer. It's also fair to say, as we move through the quarter we saw the non-consumable side, the performance start to lift.

Deborah Weinswig

Analyst · Citigroup.

All right, and then last one. You've really been working very hard on the apparel category for a while. What do you think it will take to get that category to work for your customer base?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes. I think that we have made progress in certain pieces of apparel. We're very happy with accessories, we're happy with the underwear program, we're seeing improvement in infants and toddlers and some improvement in men. I have to tell you, we have struggled in hanging apparel for women. And as we move through calendar 2013, those will be the kind of decisions we're going to be looking at.

Deborah Weinswig

Analyst · Citigroup.

And what is it that -- obviously, on the home side, that category has ticked up for you. What do you think it is -- and obviously, others have -- apparel's worked, but what is it that you think has worked so well in home and what is it that you've learned there that you can take over to some of the more discretionary categories such as in hanging women's?

Richard Dreiling

Management

Yes. I think when you look at, I'll use home, bed and bath, we are much more relevant today than we were 2 years ago, even a year ago, Deb, to be honest about it. And I think that has to do with the fact that we're doing a much better job of sourcing that product now. We've broadened where we're looking, broadened where we're going, we're not just China-concentric anymore. And I think that's playing out in the quality of the product and I have to give the merchants credit. They've done some exciting things with the quality of the set. I think the difference with hanging apparel, quite honestly, you have to hit. You got to be right on color, you got to be right on pattern. I think we're doing a lot of good things in regards to using separates rather than outfits, allowing the consumer to mix and match the different pieces. But while we've made progress, we haven't hit on all cylinders on it yet.

Mary Winn Gordon

Management

Great. Thank you, operator. That will conclude our questions. Thank you to everyone for joining us today and your interest in Dollar General. Please feel free to call me with any questions and I look forward to speaking to you. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect your phone lines and have a wonderful afternoon.