Yvonne McGill
Analyst · Bank of America
Thanks, Jeff. Let me begin with an overview of our Q2 performance. Then, I'll move to ISG, CSG, cash and guidance. In the second quarter, we saw record revenue and also delivered a Q2 EPS record. Our total revenue was up 19% to $29.8 billion. Our combined ISG and CSG businesses grew 22%. Gross margin was $5.6 billion or 18.7% of revenue. Gross margin rate was driven primarily by a mix shift to AI servers due to record AI shipments. Operating expense was down 4% to $3.3 billion or 11% of revenue, as we continue to unlock efficiencies and modernize our processes. Now let's look at operating income. We delivered a 10% increase to $2.3 billion or 7.7% of revenue. The increase in operating income was driven by higher revenue and lower operating expenses, partially offset by a decline in our gross margin rate. Q2 net income was up 13% to $1.6 billion, primarily driven by stronger operating income and our diluted EPS was up 19% to $2.32, a Q2 record. Now let's move to ISG, where we delivered another quarter of strong performance. ISG revenue was a record $16.8 billion, up 44%. This marks 6 consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth. Servers and networking revenue was a record of $12.9 billion, up 69%. Demand for AI remains strong with $5.6 billion in orders in the second quarter, and we shipped $8.2 billion of AI servers. In traditional servers, we saw continued P&L growth driven by strong TRU expansion as customers consolidated and modernized their data centers. Storage revenue was down 3% to $3.9 billion as demand was softer than anticipated. PowerStore continued its double-digit growth trajectory with 6 consecutive quarters of growth. We had ISG operating income of $1.5 billion, up 14%, a Q2 record and has been up double digits for 5 consecutive quarters. This was driven primarily by higher revenue. Our ISG operating income rate was down year- over-year to 8.8% of revenue. As we have outlined before, the mix of our AI business will have an impact on our margin rates. In the second quarter, we saw a significant shift in our mix to AI as the team executed very well and drove record AI shipments. This was the primary driver of our operating income rate this quarter, partially offset by lower operating expenses. Given our engineering differentiation and integration, we expect our AI margin rates to improve in the second half. Now let's turn to CSG. CSG revenue was up 1% to $12.5 billion. Commercial revenue was up 2% to $10.8 billion, while consumer revenue was down 7% to $1.7 billion. CSG operating income was $0.8 billion or 6.4% of revenue. TRUs remained stable sequentially, and we continue to see customers prioritize richly configured AI-ready devices. Our mix of small and medium business and transactional increased, driving an improvement in profitability. In consumer, profitability improved due to better execution and a deflationary environment. Now let's move to cash flow and the balance sheet. We had another strong cash quarter with cash flow from operations of $2.5 billion. This was primarily driven by profitability and revenue growth. We ended the quarter with $9.8 billion in cash and investments up $0.5 billion sequentially. Our core leverage ratio is at our target of 1.5x. We returned $1.3 billion of capital to shareholders with 8 million shares of stock repurchased at an average price of $114 per share and paid a dividend of roughly $0.53 per share. Since our capital return program began at the beginning of FY '23, we've returned $14.5 billion to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends. Turning to guidance. We saw strong AI shipments in the first half, delivering $10 billion of AI servers, more than the entirety of last year. We are raising our AI server shipment guidance $5 billion to $20 billion, with shipments slightly weighted to the third quarter. We expect the demand environment we saw in the second quarter for traditional servers and storage to persist into the second half. In CSG, as the PC refresh cycle continues, we are focused on improving our execution to grow revenue and gain share. Overall, we expect profitability to improve in the second half across CSG and ISG and specifically within AI servers. Given that backdrop, we expect Q3 revenue to be between $26.5 billion and $27.5 billion, up 11% at the midpoint of $27 billion. ISG and CSG combined are expected to grow 13% at the midpoint with ISG in the low 20s and CSG up mid-single digits. OpEx will be down low single digits. We expect operating income to be up roughly 7%. We expect our diluted share count to be roughly 681 million shares. And our diluted non-GAAP EPS is expected to be $2.45, plus or minus $0.10, up 11% at the midpoint. Moving to the full year. We are raising our full year revenue guidance and now expect FY '26 revenue to be between $105 million and $109 billion with a midpoint of $107 billion, up 12%. We expect ISG to grow mid- to high 20s driven by AI server shipments and continued growth in traditional servers, and we expect storage to be flat for the year. We continue to expect CSG to grow low to mid- single digits. We expect ISG and CSG combined to grow 14% at the midpoint. The full year guide reflects improved profitability in the second half for ISG and CSG. We continue to execute our modernization efforts, and we expect operating expense to be down low single digits. We expect operating income to be up roughly 10%. We expect I&O to be between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion. We are increasing our diluted non-GAAP EPS guidance to $9.55, plus or minus $0.25, up 17% at the midpoint, assuming an annual non-GAAP tax rate of 18%. In closing, we had very strong results with record revenue and a Q2 record for EPS. We have a broad portfolio with many operational levers that provide the ability and flexibility to hit our commitments. I have 4 key priorities: first, enable and drive revenue growth and share gains in the business; second, do the first one profitably; third, continue our modernization efforts; and lastly, generate significant cash flow and continue our track record of strong capital returns to shareholders. I look forward to seeing many of you at our Security Analyst Meeting on October 7. There, we will discuss our optimism on the growth and value creation opportunities that lie ahead. Now I'll turn it back to Paul to begin Q&A.