Earnings Labs

Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 21, 2015

$205.11

-5.03%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the EMC third quarter earnings conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer portion of the call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would like to introduce your host, Mr. Tony Takazawa, VP Global Investor Relations of EMC.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Thank you, good morning. Welcome to EMC's call to discuss our financial results for the third quarter of 2015. Today we are joined by: EMC Chairman and CEO Joe Tucci and EMC's CFO, Zane Rowe. We are also joined remotely from London by David Goulden, EMC Information Infrastructure [EMC II] CEO. After the prepared remarks, we will then open the lines to take your questions. Please note we will be referring to non-GAAP numbers in today's presentation unless otherwise indicated. A reconciliation of our non-GAAP comments to our GAAP results can be found in the disclosure in today's press release, supplemental schedules, and the slides that accompany our presentation. In addition, all financial comparisons will be on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise indicated. As always, the call this morning will contain forward-looking statements, and information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ can be found in EMCs filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. I will also point out that EMC will no longer be providing expectations for company financial results due to the pending transaction with Dell. Finally, this call does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any vote or approval. The proposed transaction will be submitted to the shareholders of EMC for their consideration. In connection with the proposed transaction, Denali Holding, Inc. will file with the SEC a registration statement on Form S-4 that will include a proxy statement and prospectus regarding the proposed transaction. Investors are urged to read the proxy statement and prospectus in its entirety when filed with the SEC and other filings made by Dell and EMC, as they contain important information about the proposed transaction. Investors may obtain copies of the proxy statement and prospectus when available and other documents filed with the SEC regarding…

David I. Goulden - Chief Executive Officer-Information Infrastructure

Analyst

Thanks, Zane. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I will start with some highlights for EMC II in the quarter. Within storage, emerging storage was up 27% year over year and up 32% in constant currency. XtremIO had another strong triple-digit growth quarter and is on track for more than $1 billion in annual bookings this year. Overall storage was down 2% in Q3 and up 3% in constant currency. The business continues to be affected by opposing customer behaviors. On one hand, customer interest and activity in transformational projects continues to be strong. But in general, they also remain cautious about their transactional spend. This caution continues to drive back-end heavy quarters. We also see this in our maintenance renewal bookings, which were up double digits in Q3. These counteracting forces mask some of the progress we're making in transitioning our business. As I mentioned before, these opposing customer behaviors are linked to the broader market shift towards cloud, mobile, social, and big data. And we continue to expect standalone traditional storage systems, which in 2015 were a little over half of the external storage market, to decline at a low teens CAGR from 2014 to 2018, while newer storage technologies like all-flash, scale-out file and objects, converged infrastructure, purpose-built backup appliances, and software-defined storage are expected to grow at high teens CAGR collectively. I now want to apply this lens to our storage business to show you how we are progressing against this macro view of the storage markets. Historically, our storage business was almost entirely traditional standalone storage arrays. And we've been broadening our portfolio to include new architectures and other growth opportunities, including converged infrastructure. As you know, all of the EMC strategic storage product-related revenue is in the storage categories identified…

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Thanks, David. Before we open up the lines for your questions, as usual we ask you to try and limit yourself to one question, including clarifications. This will enable us to take as many questions as possible. We thank you all for your cooperation in this matter. Nicole, can we have the first question, please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The first question is coming from Mr. Andrew Nowinski from Piper Jaffray & Company. Sir, you may now ask your question. Andrew James Nowinski - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Great, thanks for the question. I just want to ask on the broader market. Western Digital acquiring SanDisk this morning, clearly they have assets in the all-flash system market. And Seagate made an acquisition moving up the stack into the storage system business. I'm just curious how you're thinking about the consolidation that's occurring with two of your suppliers moving more up-market. Joseph M. Tucci - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Look, I've been saying for a long time that there is a huge secular shift going on in this industry unlike the industry has ever gone on before. And I've also been very clear that you're going to be seeing a lot of consolidation. So, Andrew, you just gave a couple of examples of consolidation happening at the component level. Obviously, one of the big synergies we see in our view with Dell is how we deal with the supply chain, how we'll buy ahead and invest much like Apple does, and make sure we have the right kinds of supply of flash and media that we need to be successful. But obviously, we're moving up a little bit the other way – not a little bit, a lot the other way. So nobody, I don't believe, of the traditional players is going to be able to have a successful strategy of business as usual. You're going to see a lot of movement here because this secular shift is violent. And as I said before, this violent shift has tremendous opportunity if you play it right.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Thanks, Andrew. Next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Maynard Um from Wells Fargo. You may now ask your question.

Maynard J. Um - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi, thank you. I think when I look at the 50:50 Virtustream venture, your converged EMC/VMware products, and the overlapping sales efforts, it would seem logical for EMC and VMware to be together rather than having these joint ownership structures. I guess I was just wondering if you could walk through why you think these joint ownership structures are the most optimal ones, and also whether the board discussed an option of combining the two companies and why Dell was deemed the one to be the best option. Thanks. Joseph M. Tucci - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You could check our filings, and you'll see that the board thoroughly investigated a lot of options and thought through a lot of options. Obviously, we did this one because we thought it was the best. This is a different game being played now. If you go back to the client/server era or the last era, everybody stayed neatly in their lane. There was a storage lane. And of course, that's where EMC played. There was a networking lane. That's were Cisco played. There was a server lane. In the early days you had Sun and HP and others. And then of course, you had even a database lane, where Oracle was the big player. Now you go fast-forward; nobody is staying in their lane. There's a tremendous amount. If you look at Oracle, not only are they in the database. They moved up to the apps; they moved over to hardware and software design together. We've moved into converged infrastructure. Cisco has moved into servers and storage, so it's a different world out here now. And basically to play in it, you also have to do coopetition. You have to say this is when I'm going to play with my own stack and this is where we're going to play with others, and the companies that can do that best are redefined, and VMware is at the heart of that. VMware will play very well with us in the company, but it really needs to play with others. And this is why we set up this model, and I really do believe it's the best model. And the winning companies will be able to do what I just said, and I can't think of a better word than coopetition. We'll partner here; we're going to compete here. As long as you understand and you're honest and open, those things can work very well.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Thanks, Maynard, next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Mr. Alex Kurtz from Sterne, Agee & Leach. Your line is now open.

Alex Kurtz - Sterne Agee CRT

Analyst

Thanks, guys, for taking the question. Joe, back to this $1 billion synergy comment between Dell and VMware, I think a lot of investors are trying to figure out what's incremental. I know this was asked on last week's call, but if you could, go into more detail about why now there's going to be all these incremental opportunities for Dell to sell VSAN and NSX versus a year ago when there was a partnership already with Dell. I think that would be helpful to better detail where you see that moving and what the plans are in place to accelerate that to get to these synergies. Joseph M. Tucci - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: When you have something in the plan. If you look at let's say for instance, Alex, the leaders in the converged infrastructure, hyper-converged infrastructure area, probably about 70% of them are using their converged infrastructure in a VMware environment, maybe even a little higher. Obviously, Dell is playing in that area. They partner with some of those leading players. They have their own offerings. But by being able to say okay, we'll let VMware be shared, but we're also going to have our own converged infrastructure stack. And every time we sell that converged infrastructure stack, we'll be selling, for instance, VSAN. We'll be selling vSphere. We'll be selling vRealize. So when you look at this – now we've had two of the top consultants in the world – firms, two of the top consulting firms in the world, one Dell hired, so to speak, and one our board hired. And both came back with very similar synergy numbers, and they did it by themselves. And then, of course, we did it combined and compare. So we really do believe these are incremental synergies. We've looked at them hard. You're not going to get them overnight, but I do think they're incremental, and I do think they're large. And I don't think we've done a good job of explaining them to you, and we will pick that up. Zane C. Rowe - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Alex, this is Zane. I would just add to that that Dell will own 28% of VMware, and it would obviously be highly incentivized to ensure that they achieve those synergies as well.

Alex Kurtz - Sterne Agee CRT

Analyst

Thanks, guys.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Mr. Steve Milunovich with UBS. Your line is now open.

Steven M. Milunovich - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Joe, could you update us on your thoughts on private versus public cloud? A few years ago, EMC did a fairly detailed analysis explaining where they thought public made more sense and where private made more sense. It looks like private is a big reason for the relationship with Dell. I know for years you guys had suggested AWS has made public easier to use. You had to make private easier to use. I got that exact same message from Michael a few weeks ago. Could you talk a bit? And obviously, putting all the assets together here moves toward that as well. What's your sense on what customers are doing, and what percentage of storage over time could move to public cloud? Joseph M. Tucci - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Steve, I honestly don't believe that public is the right answer or private is the right answer. I really do believe we call it hybrid. I really believe both are the right answers. I just think if you're going to win in life and business, you've got to come from your strength. I don't care whether you're playing a sport or again playing in life of business as we do. Our strength is in data centers. So we've got to come from the private side out, but we've got to offer customers a hybrid experience. Most customers are going to keep a set of data centers, or most big customers will keep a set of data centers for sure. But they're not going to put everything into the data centers and they're not going to continue to build data centers because they know they're going to want to use a public cloud offering too. So some of the traditional players like ourselves are coming what I'd call inside out. We're coming from a private and we're going to offer public. Obviously, Amazon and Azure are coming exactly the opposite way. They started in public and now they're trying to make offerings on the private side. But I truly believe it's not public or private that's going to win, it's the combination that's going to win. And that's why when you look at the assets we have through the envisioned new company, I believe they're second to none. And that's why it makes sense to have the assets VMware has, the assets Pivotal has in their PaaS layer, the assets that we have in our hardware layer, and the assets that EMC and Dell – EMC and VMware have together layer in the software-defined layer. So when you put it together, there's nobody that has a better stack, and that's why it makes sense to approach this market the way we approach it. So it's not one or the other; it's how do you do both well.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Thank you, Steve, next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Lou Miscioscia from CLSA. You may now ask your question.

Louis R. Miscioscia - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Sure. So both VMware and also IBM talked about customers pausing and not spending on infrastructure products, mostly on the software side but I assume also on the hardware side. Obviously, your sales were a bit below expectations. I guess are you also seeing this given that you've talked obviously about all these massive shifts? We've written about it with our 10 Secular Shifts in Storage. And if you are seeing it, how long do you think it will last? Is this something that will go through the end of the year, or will it also be somewhat pervasive all the way through 2016, as some of these changes are rather massive to IT infrastructures? Joseph M. Tucci - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Let me turn that around a little bit. What I honestly think is happening is customers have to spend on their digital transformations. Customers know they need to go to a cloud structure, and I just articulated why it's a hybrid cloud structure. So as they do those two activities, that's taken a tremendous amount of capital and a tremendous amount of effort. And what they're doing for the traditional products, you could call it a pause because that's not a terrible word. But what they're doing is they're basically buying with an eye of – I'm going to buy – because I'm not 100% sure what my future is going to look like, I'm going to buy just enough just in time. And the just-enough part is causing, you called this a pause, but the just-in-time piece is causing us to be tremendously back-end loaded because they're doing a whole set of their own analytics, if you will, to decide what to buy from what vendors, and a lot of that activity ends up in the end of the quarter. So us and everyone I talked to of my peers is lamenting about how late these quarters are coming in, so that's – I think that's more color on the shift. When will it be over? I'll see if David has got a take. But usually when these things happen, you're talking a couple years. This isn't going to go through quick. This is the biggest secular shift I've seen in my 45-year career. David, do you want to add anything to that?

David I. Goulden - Chief Executive Officer-Information Infrastructure

Analyst

Yeah. Lou, hopefully you can hear me from London. What I would just add to that is that we saw that in our business this quarter. We talked about this juxtaposition between transformational spending and transactional spending. We said that we had a very late quarter. That's why we had backlog build by about $100 million more than we planned and $100 million more than we exited Q2 at. And then also we saw another phenomenon where not only were things late, but we had a number of projects that were awarded to us in the last days of the quarter that we would have (43:25) normally complete in the quarter, we now expect to finalize and book early in Q4. So this phenomenon of just-enough, just-in-time ripples through our business. We also mentioned that we saw double-digit increases in maintenance renewals, which is indicative of people actually renewing rather than refreshing. So you see it reflected in a number of aspects of what we talked about this quarter.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Thanks, Lou, next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Amit Daryanani from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Let's just go on to the next question, please.

Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Hey – never mind, can you hear me?

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Now we can hear you.

Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Sorry, (44:23). So I'm just curious what's going on on the VMAX side and what you guys expect going forward because obviously the growth rates are down over the last couple of quarters. I'm just wondering what the expected trajectory is on a combined basis going forward.

David I. Goulden - Chief Executive Officer-Information Infrastructure

Analyst

Sure, hi. This is David, let me take that. I think we said to you earlier in the year that we expect that the VMAX will decline at roughly the same rate this year as it did last year, and we're on track for that. And as we said, the secular change in the industry creates a situation where the more traditional parts of the business are declining at a market growth rate in the low teens and the higher growth segments of the business are climbing in the high teens. We also explained that this quarter for the first time we actually had the inflection point where the higher-growth parts are now the biggest piece of the business. Actually 52% to 48% is the mix, so we've made that inflection in front of the marketplace. So we think our mix of business will actually be good going forward. But back to your question on VMAX, very much on track with what we see happening in the market and in line with the expectations for the growth for the year.

Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Got it, and then just one quick one. How do you think about the market share basically on a combined basis with Dell and EMC in terms of NAS and SAN and then maybe even the emerging bucket, and what percentage of share do you guys have?

David I. Goulden - Chief Executive Officer-Information Infrastructure

Analyst

We're not really going to talk more than our own share right now. Globally, we have about a 30 point market share. As Joe said, when you actually double-click into the data center where people run mission-critical apps, our market share for us in the data center is close to 50 points, so that is our strength. And the products from Dell are more complementary and not in the same markets as we have our major strength today.

Amit Daryanani - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Got it, thank you.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Toni Sacconaghi from Sanford Bernstein. You may now ask your question. A.M. Sacconaghi, Jr. - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Yes, thank you. VMware stock is trading at slightly under $60 in the premarket today. I think part of that is the reaction to the joint ownership structure of the new Virtustream combination and the associated losses in incremental CapEx that VMware is going to be burdening going forward. The consequence is that EMC stock is trading at $26.50 in the premarket as a result of VMware going down. So I guess the question is, why was this JV structure put in place? Was this done solely – was this a condition of the deal and discussed with Dell previously? But it feels like it's shifting an incremental expense to VMware shareholders and to tracking stock owners, which is, at least now the market is saying, impacting their perception of the value of the deal. So I was wondering if you could comment on that, please. Joseph M. Tucci - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: All right. Thanks, Toni. This is Joe. I can absolutely guarantee everybody on this call or everybody in the world, Dell had absolutely nothing to do with this transaction. This was a transaction driven primarily out of VMware with us. It makes no sense for us to have – even though Virtustream, which is really working on the mission-critical side and vCloud Air, which is more working on the hybrid and ad hoc side, there is overlap. And there is no other company – and companies much bigger than we are with much bigger revenues and cash flows have two clouds. So combining it I think you'd agree makes a lot of sense. I can…

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Thanks, Toni, next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Rod Hall from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Hey, thank you for taking my question. This is Arky (50:03) on behalf of Rod. The SG&A expense was quite a bit higher than what we expected. Could you comment on what's driving that, please? Zane C. Rowe - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: The biggest piece of that as you look year over year is the impact of the VCE accounting that we've talked about for some time. As you adjust that out, if you were to look at, say, operating margins, if you took that out as well as the impact on FX, I think you get to a more normalized rate where at least on the operating side were up – it was up just incrementally, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks. So I would tell you that it's the VCE accounting that impacted that probably more than anything.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Thank you, next question, please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is coming from Simona Jankowski from Goldman Sachs. You may now ask your question. Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hi, thanks very much. I heard your comments on the impact of the just-in-time and just-enough behavior from clients given all the disruption out there. Can you also offer your comments on the competitive environment? Clearly, we've seen a number of new offerings in the flash space specifically, both from startups and from the incumbents. And I was just curious how you're seeing that play out in terms of pricing and competition.

David I. Goulden - Chief Executive Officer-Information Infrastructure

Analyst

Simona, hi. This is David. Let me take that for you. So first of all, obviously the competitive environment you would expect to show up in our gross margins. And the good news is that if you look at both storage and EMC II for the quarter, you exclude the impact of VCE, you exclude the impact of FX, gross margins were up. So the mix of our business, our ability to compete and basically get the value of our products despite a slower market is actually very good. And then related to that, a lot of the things you talked about in the new area would be in our emerging storage category, which I'm pleased to tell you is still on track to grow over 30% this year. We'll end the year in the fourth quarter being our second-largest product category. XtremIO had good triple-digit growth and is on track for more than $1 billion of bookings in 2015. So those are the areas that we focus where some of the newer players are also playing. And as you see, we're doing exceptionally well. We're on plan, and we're actually increasing on a normalized basis our gross margins.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

Thank you for the question. Simona K. Jankowski - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great, thank you.

Anthony T. Takazawa - Vice President-Global Investor Relations

Analyst

We are out of time, so we're going to have a few comments from Joe to sign off the call. Joseph M. Tucci - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think to be – and I always am self-critical, I don't think we've done as good a job as we need to do in explaining the power of this combination and explaining why it's not only good for EMC shareholders and Dell, but also is going to be very good for the VMware shareholders. We are going to do more of a roadshow and we'll be getting to you, and we posted more on the web. But every fiber in my body believes this is good for both the VMware shareholders, the EMC shareholders, and other stakeholders as well. The other thing that's missed is this was the 24th quarter in a row, 24 consecutive quarters we've had year-on-year growth. The beat was only 1%. But when you compare to players that were born in the same era that we were, there are very few, if any other, of the players that can say that, 24 quarters in a row of 1% growth. So customers are responding well. This is a very secular shift, dramatic secular shift we're going through. But I submit despite all the disruptions that: A), are happening around us; and B), we're causing ourselves some needlessly, we are performing well, and that's only because customers realize the value of what we bring to market. And if we continue to do our job well and explain it better to you, I think we're going to have a great outcome, and I owe you that and you will get that. So thank you very much for being with us today. Thank you for your patience. And again, we'll be very active with you and on our website. Thank you.