Earnings Labs

Deere & Company (DE)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 21, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Deere’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Your lines have been placed on listen-only until the question-and-answer session of today’s conference. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Tony Huegel, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Tony Huegel

Management

Hello. Also on the call today are Raj Kalathur, our Chief Financial Officer; Marie Ziegler, Vice President and Treasurer; and Susan Karlix, Manager, Investor Communications. Today, we’ll take a closer look at Deere’s fourth quarter earnings and full-year results then spend some time talking about our markets and the outlook for 2013. After that, we’ll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at www.johndeere.com. First, a reminder. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere and Thomson Reuters. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere, is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call. This call includes forward-looking comments concerning the company’s plans and projections for the future. They’re subject to important risks and uncertainties. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company’s most recent Form 8-K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, or GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures is included in the release and posted on our website at www.johndeere.com/financialreports under Other Financial Information. I will now turn the call over to Raj.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

Good morning and afternoon, everyone. First, let me say how pleased I am to be part of today’s call. To give you some background about who I am, I joined John Deere in 1997 and have spent my career in different functional areas, starting in finance, including business development, sales and marketing and operations in North American and Asian locations. Before becoming the Deputy Financial Officer in April 2012, I was based in Singapore as Vice President of Sales and Marketing for our ag and turf businesses in Asia and Africa. Before that, I was Managing Director of the company’s India operations. I’m looking forward to bringing the benefit of my business experience to my role as CFO and to working with our Investor Relations team and many of you. Before turning things over to Susan for a fuller discussion of our results, a few words about what we experienced in the fourth quarter and our future business prospects. In our last conference call in August, we noted that our third quarter performance was impacted by manufacturing inefficiencies, which particularly affected the production of combines. At the time, our then CFO, Jim Field, said we expected these issues to be largely behind us by the end of the fiscal year. I’m pleased to say that’s exactly what happened. Our factories have done a good job of catching up with demand and are running quite well. In addition, John Deere has completed its best ever fourth quarter and best ever full-year in terms of both sales and earnings. We are pleased with our record results in 2012. As we all know, the world faces some big economic challenges today ranging from the U.S. fiscal cliff possibilities to euro debt crisis and the slowdown in emerging market economies. Today’s economic uncertainties are real and troubling and John Deere is taking serious precautions in response. However, we don’t see these issues having a lasting impact on the powerful tailwinds that we believe will drive demand for agriculture and construction equipment well into the future. In fact, we couldn’t agree more with our CEO, Sam Allen’s comments in today’s earnings announcement that we have great confidence in Deere’s prospects and in our ability to deliver value to investors in the future. Susan?

Susan Karlix

Management

Thank you, Raj. Now let’s take a look at the fourth quarter in detail beginning on slide 3. Net sales and revenues were up 14% to $9.8 billion in the quarter. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $688 million. On slide 4, total worldwide equipment operations net sales were $9 billion, up 14% quarter-over-quarter, included is an unfavorable impact from currency translation of about three points, price realization in the quarter was positive by four points. Turning to a review of our individual businesses, let’s start with ag and turf on slide 5. Sales were up 16% in the quarter. Operating profit was $931 million. There is one item that affected operating profit I’d like to touch on. As mentioned in the press release issued this morning and noted on this slide, the division recorded a small write-down, approximately $33 million pre-tax, relating to our water business. This write-down reflects the near-term actions we have taken to integrate water into the A&T division’s business and distribution channel. John Deere Water continues to be a long-term strategic opportunity for the company. Before we review the industry sales outlook, let’s look at some of the fundamentals affecting the ag business. Slide 6 outlines U.S. commodity price estimates that underlie our financial forecast. Corn, soybean and wheat prices are reflective of the weather-driven events that affected the growing season and are supportive of equipment sales. Prices for cotton continue to fall, as stock levels globally are about 65% higher than two years ago. Slide 7 highlights cash receipts. Driven by strong crop prices, 2012 forecasted cash receipts of $388 billion is a record level. In 2013, strong crop prices are expected to continue and livestock receipts are forecasted to increase, spurring 2013 cash receipts even higher. As a reminder, in our…

Tony Huegel

Management

Thank you, Susan. We’re now ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. But as a reminder, in consideration of others, please limit yourself to one question and one related follow up. If you have additional questions, we ask that you rejoin the queue. Operator?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question or comment comes from Andy Kaplowitz. Your line is open. And please state your company name. Andy Kaplowitz – Barclays: Good morning, guys. Barclays.

Susan Karlix

Management

Good morning.

Tony Huegel

Management

Hi, Andy. Andy Kaplowitz – Barclays: Could you guys talk a little bit more about the U.S. ag market – the outlook for 2013? How are tractors doing so far? I know you don’t have an early order program but how are they doing, maybe some lead-times? And then I think we understand the livestock market is relatively weak, but if you’ve gotten things like sprayers basically sold out and you’ve got combines pretty strong, is there potential upside to a flat market, again assuming it’s a strong market to begin with?

Tony Huegel

Management

Yeah, Andy. This is Tony. And I would say that on the tractor question, our order book, as you point out, we don’t have an early order program but the order book for U.S. and Canada is roughly the same type of availability as last year; but keep in mind that is with higher capacity so as you look at 8R Tractors for example, availability is out to April 2013 timeframe; again similar to last year. And then the 9RT Track Tractors would be May of 2013. Andy Kaplowitz – Barclays: So it looks pretty good. Tony, maybe I could shift gears and ask you about – so you’ve decided to do new guidance in cost of sales, and I’m sure you guys anticipate that we would ask you about – to break that down a little bit if you could or at least help us think about material costs and emission cost in 2013, how should we think about it, and how did it end up in 4Q?

Tony Huegel

Management

Sure. And as we move forward in the past, as you know, we’ve given specific numeric guidance. We can certainly help kind of directionally, but as we look at those costs, Susan cited really the three highest increases, emissions costs would be the greatest increase. Absorption also is impacting the year as you see a lower build in inventories and receivable. And then the various overhead spend including the portion of that employee cost, our employee adds that impact cost of sales. So those are the three main drivers in the year. Andy Kaplowitz – Barclays: But at least material costs should be pretty benign at least in the forecast for 2013?

Tony Huegel

Management

It was not significant enough to bear mentioning, so. Andy Kaplowitz – Barclays: Got you. Okay, I’ll get back in queue. Thank you.

Tony Huegel

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from Jamie Cook. And please state your company name. Andrew Buscaglia – Credit Suisse: Hi. This is actually Andrew Buscaglia on behalf of Jamie Cook. Thanks for taking my question.

Tony Huegel

Management

Good Morning. Andrew Buscaglia – Credit Suisse: So if you were to add back the $33 million goodwill charge to ag, incrementals still seem a little light at 9% or so. Can you just talk through some of the factors driving incrementals in the quarter and then how they stood relative to your expectations?

Tony Huegel

Management

Sure.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

Andrew, now there are two items – this is Raj – there are two items that in particular you need to make note of. One is the goodwill charge, that was about $33 million for water pre-tax and $31 million after-tax, and if you include that plus the effective tax rate increases, it was almost a $70 million impact on net income that was one-time. Okay? So you got to look at both sides. And these two alone, on a one-time basis, impacted the net income by $70 million. So if you add that back to the net income, now it would’ve been higher than the guidance we provided and higher than the First Call consensus estimates.

Tony Huegel

Management

And then if you look at ag specifically, certainly the goodwill charge would’ve impacted those margins but, the press release talked about increased production costs, things like Interim Tier 4 costs, manufacturing overheads as well as some profit shares that hit cost of sales different year-over-year. Interim Tier 4 cost alone in the quarter was about $105 million so a little over $100 million, and then SG&A and R&D both were up pretty considerably in the quarter. Andrew Buscaglia – Credit Suisse: Okay. And, then on those Interim Tier 4 costs, can you just talk about your expectations on spend for Tier 4 in 2013?

Tony Huegel

Management

Yeah, again, as we talked about before and coming in line really with what our expectations are, certainly not going to see a year-over-year increase like we saw in 2012 but it’s not an insignificant number. As you look out into 2013, you have products that converted throughout the year. So, you had a partial year of cost increase for 2012 and you’ll see a full-year increase in 2013. So, they will be up and it is the number one driver of cost increase in our cost of sales. Okay, thank you. Andrew Buscaglia – Credit Suisse: Okay. Thanks, guys.

Tony Huegel

Management

Let’s go to the next caller.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Rob Wertheimer. And, please state your company name. Rob Wertheimer – Vertical Research: It’s Vertical Research. And, good morning, everybody.

Tony Huegel

Management

Good morning. Rob Wertheimer – Vertical Research: Two quick ones if I can; the early order season looks like it’s going great. Deere customers seem to have concerns about soil moisture – weather is hard to predict for next year – but where we’re going into this year or is that a concern that’s fading and it’s just a regular weather uncertainty?

Tony Huegel

Management

Sure.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

It is something that Deere is watching in the U.S. certainly, but it’s way too early to make any predictions at this stage of the game. But, it is something that we’re watching. Has it affected initial sales? Certainly not from the commentary on the early order programs on – ranging from combines to sprayers and even frankly what you’re seeing with the tractor activity. Rob Wertheimer – Vertical Research: Yes, seems like you’re not overly concerned. I don’t know if you’re willing to answer this one but can you tell us where underlying construction margins, maybe you could do it just for the U.S., or extra growth investments are trending? Obviously, you’re investing a lot; you’ve gained share, I think, in construction. I think the business is doing well but it’s not showing up the margins and I just don’t know how big a drag that is on the growth side.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

I’m unable to quantify it for you or just maybe unwilling, but suffice it to say that you have seen the construction equipment division performing very well prior certainly to the recession and we have – we are delivering that kind of performance. But, there is no question that we are impacted in this division by pretty – for them, pretty significant investments, not only in growth, in Brazil and we’re talking about China, but also frankly in some IT4 expenses. Now, I should be starting to say Final Tier 4 expenses. Again, the time – the lag time between the implementation of IT4 and Final Tier 4 is very compressed. Rob Wertheimer – Vertical Research: Okay, I’ll stop. Thank you very much.

Tony Huegel

Management

Thank you.

Susan Karlix

Management

Thank you, Rob.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jerry Revich. And, please state your company name. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Hi. It’s Goldman Sachs. Good morning and happy Thanksgiving.

Tony Huegel

Management

Thanks, Jerry. Happy Thanksgiving. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: You’ve had strong retail sales for tractors in Europe over the past couple of months. Can you talk about if that’s driven by your regional mix or new product lineup and whether you expect the tailwinds for Deere versus the industry to continue as you look into the early part of 2013?

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

There are a number of factors at play in Europe, including the very significant product line expansions that you saw when you were in Lisbon a year and a half ago. We’ve also made strides in strengthening our distribution capabilities in the market and we think that’s starting to pay some nice dividends. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Okay, thanks. And, just to circle up on the Interim Tier 4 discussion, Tony, what’s the magnitude of increase in 2013 versus 2012, if you could quantify that for us? It’s nice to hear that the combine production issues have been addressed, but certainly your guidance is looking for 4% net income growth on 5% sales growth, and I’m just wondering if you could just flesh out for us the Interim Tier 4 headwinds and the overhead head count headwinds that Susan alluded to in her remarks.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

This is Marie. I’ll just say it’s over $200-million impact on the IT4 for the cost.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

I think this is a question that’ll come up often so let me address the cost of sales items.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Yes.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

So, if you look at the – item-by-item, let me provide some qualitative view for each one of these. Price realization, of course, impacts the cost of sales as a percent of net sales; that’s up 3%. It’s already set. Volume is going to be up for 2013 about 2 points. Manufacturing inefficiencies in 2012 that we had, you should not see in 2013. Now, material we said is not significant either way. In terms of IT4 material, it’s like Marie just said; it’s not as high as last year. I would say it’s about 60% of what we had last year. Depreciation is going to be higher and overhead expenses, as you can imagine, the 5,000 additional people and that’s going to impact cost of sales, SG&A, and also R&D. So, to that extent that’s going to be higher as well. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs: Thank you very much.

Tony Huegel

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Ann Duignan. Please state your company name. Ann Duignan – JP Morgan: Hi. Good morning, guys. JP Morgan.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Good morning. Ann Duignan – JP Morgan: Hi. Can you talk a little bit about – what I’m worrying about here is price increases of 3%, is that enough to more than offset the higher cost of Tier 4? Or, are we looking at structurally lower margins going forward? The margin this quarter in ag and turf should have been higher in our view given the number of combines you were intending to ship out. So, I’m just trying to get a sense of what’s cyclical and if there’s anything secular.

Tony Huegel

Management

Sure. If you look at where we ended the year, pretty much in line with what we were saying from a price perspective. For the ag and turf division, we had – we were about 90% of the Interim Tier 4 costs were covered – or recovered through 2012. C&F, as expected again, a little lower than that, about 75%. So, certainly with the price realization, we’re looking at next year would expect to get much further along the line on that. Ann Duignan – JP Morgan: What does that mean, Tony, much further...?

Tony Huegel

Management

Well, if you look.... Ann Duignan – JP Morgan: It doesn’t sound like you’re going to get to 100%.

Tony Huegel

Management

If you look at the 3% – I don’t know exactly at 100%. Certainly, ag and turf is already at 90%. So, I think it’s fair to assume you’re going to get to the 100% there. And, we’re looking at these on a product-by-product basis. So, as we’ve talked about with the smaller ag equipment, it’s harder to recover that cost; it’s a higher percent of the cost of the equipment on a product that is more price sensitive. So – versus large Ag which is where construction has similar challenges as well. So, certainly, if you look at the 3% price realization versus the cost increase in just the year, it more than covered.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Ann, this is Raj. Now, you do – you did, I’m assuming, notice that the operating margins go up in 2013 compared to 2012. Now, the other thing, if you look at the incremental margins, of course they are better in 2013 compared to 2012; it’s improving. And, if you were to calculate the net income incrementals that would be about 6.6% for 2012, goes up about 2 points – roughly 2 points for 2013. So, the margins are actually getting better from 2012 to 2013. Ann Duignan – JP Morgan: Okay. That’s helpful color. And, then just circling back, if we look at SG&A up 7% this year, up another 7% next year that’s, what, three times the rate of inflation. Are you using any kind of marketing or financing programs out there to support sales?

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

So, Ann, let me just maybe set the table here and go back to net sales as a – and the change in net sales versus the change in our SG&A because I think that might help calibrate things. In 2010 – I’m going to go back three years – our net sales were up 14%, SG&A was up 10%. In 2011, we were up 25% for net sales, SG&A only up 12%. Net sales in 2012, as you know we just reported, up 14%, SG&A up 7%. So, there is a little bit of catch-up, if you will, from some spend required to support the infrastructure, if you will, of these higher sales in the form primarily of people. So, we think that while we are very mindful of our expenses, and I can assure you as a member of the CFO staff we’re very mindful of our expenses, we are actually exhibiting good control relative to the types of growth that we have not only delivered, but what we have envisioned for the future.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

And, if I can add to what Marie said, Ann; now the 2012 versus 2011, 14% to 7% that Marie mentioned, if you look at the quarter four, okay, quarter four of 2011 our SG&A was about $769 million, okay? That’s a 9.5% increase above the quarter four 2012 so that’s fine. Now, if you look at the guidance we had going into July – August guidance going into the fourth quarter, we actually did better than the guidance we provided to you at that point. So, I think the guidance we provided was about $880 million, and our quarter four actual SG&A was $842 million.

Tony Huegel

Management

And, Ann, this is Tony. The other thing I would add there is I think your question focused in on potential incentive programs in the market. And, if you look at our price realization both in 2012 and again in 2013 with 4 points and then another 3 points that would be pretty hard to do with incentive programs in the market. Ann Duignan – JP Morgan: So, your incentive programs, if they were financing, would show up in pricing or would they show up in SG&A?

Tony Huegel

Management

They would show up in the pricing, yes, so – okay? Thank you. Ann Duignan – JP Morgan: Okay. Thank you.

Tony Huegel

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment is from Ashish Gupta. And, please state your company name. Ashish Gupta – CLSA: Hi. Good morning. CLSA.

Tony Huegel

Management

Good morning.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Good morning. Ashish Gupta – CLSA: Good morning. Can you quantify the impact on operating profit from the combine issues? And, I think you had had an issue in the first quarter, third quarter, and then fourth quarter as well.

Tony Huegel

Management

We talked about in the third quarter some costs from the execution issues and that was part of the spend increase that we spoke to last quarter but I think maybe what you’re getting at is, certainly from a shipping pattern perspective, we had some impact from the combines, much lower shipments than normal in the first part of the year, especially in the first quarter, and then picking up in the back half of the year. And, again, of course that’s impacted because of the IT4 transition.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

That was on plan. It was the third quarter that wasn’t. Ashish Gupta – CLSA: Okay.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

And, there was really no impact from any manufacturing inefficiency issues for combines in Q4, okay? Ashish Gupta – CLSA: Okay.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

So, all of that was in Q3 and we said that will be behind us and it is behind us. Ashish Gupta – CLSA: Great. And, then I know you mentioned that your lead times for tractors are looking similar to last year but with the added capacity. I was just wondering could you remind us the year-over-year increases in capacity for the products like sprayers and tractors where you’ve added on.

Tony Huegel

Management

Well, keep in mind, it’s hard to – we certainly have talked about within Waterloo the expand of capacity but as you know that’s a facility that’s really for global production on the 7000, 8000, and 9000 series tractors. So, it’s hard to distinguish how much of that capacity is specifically related to the U.S. and Canada production. So – we talked about in the past for Waterloo specifically, by the end of 2012, we would add 15% capacity there. And, then again we made another announcement in March of last year for an additional 10% capacity that is coming here – coming through 2013 so – or will be in place in – I think mid-2013 is what we had indicated that capacity would be in place. So, again, I wouldn’t take that to mean that you’ve got a full 10% capacity increase in Waterloo tractors for the U.S. and Canada market but we do, in fact, in 2012 have higher capacity for that market. Okay? Ashish Gupta – CLSA: Fair enough. Thanks a lot.

Tony Huegel

Management

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from Steve Volkmann. Your line is open. And, please state your company name. Steve Volkmann – Jefferies: Hi. Good morning, everybody. It’s Jefferies.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Good morning.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

Good morning. Steve Volkmann – Jefferies: My question is about the comment that Susan made on wanting to pre-fund the first quarter and having extra cash on the balance sheet and maybe not needing to do that going forward. So, I’m trying to figure out what would be a more normal level of cash. And, I’ll ask my related follow-up which is, have you changed your view of what dividends should be given potential changes in taxation? And, also you talk about mid-cycle earnings which raises the question – I think in the past you’ve said things about where you think we are versus mid-cycle in your various businesses. So, maybe you can help us with that too.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Wow! Okay, first of all, we would view with our global growth the operating cash requirements that you would see at – typically at a yearend would be somewhere in the $4 billion to $5 billion range and that really reflects the changing nature of the business and that’s basically where we are today. So, we’ve got about $1 billion to $1.5 billion extra in pre-funding. Depending on how market conditions play out, as we move through the end of the year and we see hopefully a very successful resolution to this fiscal cliff, we won’t feel it necessary to have that level of pre-funding. So that, I think, takes care of your first question. Steve Volkmann – Jefferies: Thank you.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Regarding the dividend, the dividend really is the purview of the Board, and so I will not be able to make a comment on the dividend. And, your third question would – we are not providing a prescriptive or point-blank number on where we are. It’s fair to say that the ag markets in the U.S. are very strong, not as strong in markets outside, and construction is still in, I’ll say, a recovery mode, although they’re getting closer to a more typical cycle. So, three questions for you, Steve. Steve Volkmann – Jefferies: But, I asked them quickly. Thank you very much.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from David Raso. And, please state your company name. David Raso – ISI: ISI. I’m just making sure I understand the moving parts on the margin guidance for next year. Can you clarify the IT4 cost? Somebody mentioned up $200 million, then another mention was but that’s only 60% of the cost we had in 2012. Is that the right way to look at it? It’s basically the rough numbers would be it was $300 million or so in 2012 but it’s only $200 million in 2013 so it’s a $100-million benefit year-over-year?

Tony Huegel

Management

No. Keep in mind, when we talk about incremental cost, in 2012 the total costs were about $485 million higher year-over-year, okay? When we talk about the impact on cost of sales being up again in 2014 that’s in addition to the $485 million so it’s additive. So if you look back further, 2011 was $155 million, we had another $485 million last year, and then we’re adding on top of that yet again this year. David Raso – ISI: Okay. So, to frame the positives and negatives for year-over-year margin in ag, this will be the question, right? The idea is you’re implying incremental margins next year of 28% for ag and turf. And, if you adjust for some of the goodwill in this quarter, call it 25%, 26%, so it’s still a pretty healthy number. But, your costs are up for Interim Tier 4, but the price for ag alone, you said 3% for the whole company. Is ag and turf a little bit beyond that? You’re saying it’s a little higher, 3.5%....

Tony Huegel

Management

We don’t guide on specific divisions. Certainly, both divisions are contributing. David Raso – ISI: Okay. So, if we just put the positives and negatives, right, the negatives are higher costs, the positive is you get more price. The overhead absorption, receivables and inventories went up over $1 billion for ag and turf in 2012. This next year, it’s obviously a lot more modest, barely up at all. So, a negative would be the overhead absorption?

Tony Huegel

Management

Correct. David Raso – ISI: You have some costs as well with the employees. But, for the mix – and we can debate if the sales guidance is conservative now off the order book, but I’m just trying to take it at face value. The mix, the U.S. comments have been relatively positive. South America, I would argue, is a decent margin geography for you in ag when it comes to margins. Would you describe the mix from the order book, the geography, however you want to look at it, is the mix going into 2013 for ag and turf, would you view that as positive for margins?

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

When we talk – when we think about that ourselves, we tend to look at products not geographies, and you have products in some geographies that have very attractive yields and some that don’t. And so, it’s really more product centric. With that, Tony didn’t mention it as one of the driving factors so, David, we don’t have a comment on that. David Raso – ISI: Okay. All right, I appreciate it. Thank you.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Thank you.

Tony Huegel

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Seth Weber. And, please state your company name. Adam Nielsen – RBC Capital: Hi. It’s Adam Nielsen, on for Seth. How are you? Thanks.

Tony Huegel

Management

Good. How are you? Adam Nielsen – RBC Capital: Good, thanks. I’m just wondering if you could speak a bit about the competitive environment in Brazil. It looks like you pick up some share in tractors since – into the fall. So, are you able to hold pricing pretty stable there in defense of margins? Or, is it getting a little more competitive?

Tony Huegel

Management

Yeah. Certainly, again as you look at our price realization for the year, I think that’s indicative of our ability to hold that price so. Adam Nielsen – RBC Capital: Okay. And, then on the – along similar lines....

Tony Huegel

Management

Keep in mind on those tractors – on large tractors, most of those – those are ordered well in advance of when we’re actually shipping and retailing those. So that’s also impacting it.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

And for the sake of those who may not be as familiar with our Brazilian operations, we have made significant investments down there in factory, capacity. We have had a very significant broadening of our tractor line but frankly of many product lines. Two years ago, approximately we launched 50 new products, many of which were in categories that we were not yet competing. We also have a very good dealer organization. We’ve been growing their presence and their footprint in Brazil as well and we’re benefiting from that.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

This is Raj. So, overall, our tractor portfolio in Brazil has been strengthening, our dealer channel has been strengthening, and our price realization has been good, okay? So, it’s a positive story for us so far, okay? Adam Nielsen – RBC Capital: Great. And, along those same lines, the cost drag next year – in 2013 relative to this year, can you frame that for us? I know China will be a little later but can you frame those for the new capacity adds?

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

In terms of – no. Actually, the – it would be implied or included in the kinds of guidance that we’ve already provided. But, we’re not going to be able to comment specifically on the factory. Thank you. Adam Nielsen – RBC Capital: Okay. Thanks.

Tony Huegel

Management

Next caller.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Robert McCarthy. And, please state your company name. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: It’s Robert W. Baird. Good morning, everybody.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Good morning.

Tony Huegel

Management

Good morning.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

Good morning. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Can I first just get a definitional clarification? You’re talking about fiscal 2013 COGS being 74% of what exactly? Is it net sales for the equipment operations or net sales and revenue for the equipment operations?

Tony Huegel

Management

Net sales of the equipment operations. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Net sales of the equipment operations, okay.

Tony Huegel

Management

Yeah, so. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: So, excluding finance and interest income and other income that are reported....

Tony Huegel

Management

Right. Yeah, as typical when we are providing our guidance, it would be on the equipment operations with financial services on the equity basis. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: I just wanted to make absolutely sure.

Tony Huegel

Management

Absolutely. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: And, in the release of course there are comments about strength in – or expected continued strength in large equipment in the U.S. and Canadian market offsetting pressure on U.S. and livestock and dairy sectors. That does imply improved mix in the U.S. and Canada, doesn’t it?

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Again, I think we’ve got a number of factors at play. If mix was a significant factor up or down, we would have cited it when we were going through the factors to think about for next year. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Okay. So, it’s an immaterial consideration, okay. So, the other question I had was Mr. Allen was on television a couple of days ago, talking about the uncertain current macro environment and made comments about Deere having specifically slowed or deferred certain investments. How do I think about your – the guidance that you’re issuing today for expense levels and CapEx, unchanged full-year CapEx, in light of those comments? Does it suggest that the CapEx budget has some upside if we see a quick resolution to fiscal cliff issues, for example? Can you help us here?

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Robert, this is Raj. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Hi.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

Now, our forecast essentially for CapEx and other expenses indicate caution based on the economic uncertainties, okay? Now, we have asked the divisions – we have approved the capital expenditures and expenses but asked our units to delay as much of it as practical into January, okay? Now, the current plans of course reflect our assessment of the probabilities of different economic outcome. And, as the economic scenarios become clearer, we may modify our plans, right? So, we will pull levers and cut down in investments if the scenario worsens, and we may accelerate our plans as prudent if the economic scenario turns positive. So, you should see that as just a pragmatic, sensible approach to both CapEx and expenses. Rob McCarthy – Robert W. Baird: Yeah, I got it. Okay, thank you very much.

Tony Huegel

Management

Thanks, Rob. Okay, next caller.

Operator

Operator

And, are you ready for the next question?

Tony Huegel

Management

Yes, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Vance Edelson. And, please state your company name. Vance Edelson – Morgan Stanley: Good morning. It’s Morgan Stanley. You mentioned a few months ago that you might need to extend the balance sheet a bit in Europe to facilitate sales given the credit conditions. Any update on that? Would you say that’s an upward or downward trend at this point?

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

I think what we were referring to there is that we’re actually looking at some partnerships with some banks to help us facilitate financing in various markets, and we have or are close to having in some markets some new agreements that’ll help us in countries in Europe and in the former Soviet Union where we – or the East Bloc would be better to say where we haven’t had a presence. But, I don’t have anything to publicly announce on this call. Vance Edelson – Morgan Stanley: Okay. That’s helpful. And, just a quick follow-up on something you recently mentioned. I think you said you’re getting closer to recovery mode on the construction side, and overall, you’re calling for modest improvement in the U.S. Is that a bit conservative even with the sluggish economic growth that you cite, just given the possibility of bouncing off the bottom now that there actually are some green shoots? Could you elaborate a little on what leads to the forecast for modest improvement?

Tony Huegel

Management

On construction and forestry? Again, we’re really – it’s a similar story to what we saw last year. We’re continuing to see strength in the rental channel, energy related, those sorts of things is what’s drive – continuing to drive that modest improvement for that particular division. Vance Edelson – Morgan Stanley: Yeah, okay. Thank you.

Tony Huegel

Management

All right? Okay, thank you. Operator, I think we have time for one more question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Eli Lustgarten. And, please state your company name. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: Longbow Securities. Good morning, everyone.

Tony Huegel

Management

Good morning.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Good morning. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: Okay. Can I get one clarification? In the back of your release, you have pension and OPEB expenses going up $70 million. You didn’t cite it as an expense as it is done. Is that correct? Is it about a $0.02 impact for the higher pension expenses because you didn’t get as much in 2012?

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Well that’s funding. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: No, it says expense.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

No, it is expense; sorry.

Tony Huegel

Management

Yeah, it is up – it will be up about $70 million; that’s on an enterprise basis. Of course, most of that is equipment operations.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Right. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: And so, there is an impact that should have been – that we would notice in the numbers? Can we...?

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

That’s correct. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: And....

Tony Huegel

Management

And that would be – Eli, that’s about two – roughly, it’s about two-thirds cost of sales and the rest SA&G. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: And, you’ve showed there – that as a cost. You gave us also the first quarter is going to be up 10%. Can you give us – and the rest of the year very modest based on your forecast. Can you (inaudible) – that 10% gain, is that just normal seasonality, an easy comparison in combines because there is some questions about the depreciation expense benefit expiring at the end of the year? So, whether or not people are trying to actually to get equipment, are you seeing any of that? Alternatively, the insurance checks seem to be coming later and probably not until January and February. So, do you have any of that factored in? Give us some help on how the insurance checks are playing out and the depreciating expense and how it affects the first quarter and the later quarters?

Tony Huegel

Management

Yeah. Certainly, I think – as you said in part of that, I think it’s more of a reflection of last year and the lower sales of combines. Keep in mind, in terms of the....

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

Production.

Tony Huegel

Management

The production, right, of combines. But, last year – or in terms of the tax incentive, keep in mind, they have to take possession by that – by the end of the year and with the order books in the position that we have them in, they would have needed to have those ordered well in advance in order to take advantage of any of that tax incentive. The other thing to keep in mind, it’s 50% this year; in 2011, it was 100%. So, it would really go down to the more traditional. As you look out into 2013, it goes down to the five-year depreciation so 20%. So, it’s not as large of a step function from 2012 to 2013 as it was from 2011 to 2012. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: And, the insurance check impact? That’s probably the most significant one that people worry about because they’re not going to get the checks until January and February, at least according to most....

Tony Huegel

Management

Yeah, I think our expectation for credit would be that by the end of the year about 70% of our expected claims will be paid by then.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

By the end of calendar year.

Tony Huegel

Management

By the end of calendar year, yeah; sorry. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: Yeah, I was more – not so much worried about claims on you, but I was worried – I was asking more on the impact of farmer purchases and timing of it and whether that....

Tony Huegel

Management

Well that’s – but that’s our – checks from our John Deere insurance. It’s hard to know what other insurance companies are doing, but if you look at just our business, for our customers 70% of the expected payments will be made by the end of the calendar year. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: And, is there – is there any place that you have excess inventory or issues? Particularly in construction equipment, we now see a big widespread inventory liquidation going on because a lot of rental channels are filled (inaudible). Are we seeing any shutdowns or any place where inventories are out of whack in any part of the product line?

Tony Huegel

Management

Out in the field inventory, no.

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

For construction, heck, by virtue of the fact that we’re actually projecting inventories will end next year up a bit, we’re in very good shape. And, again on our – on the ag side, while there’s always little pockets here and there, it’s pretty de minimis relative to the size of the business. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: And, no excess combine used inventories or any issues?

Marie Ziegler

Analyst

We’re very comfortable with levels across the board.

Raj Kalathur

Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Eli.

Tony Huegel

Management

Okay. Thanks, Eli. And, with that, we thank you for your participation in the call. As always, we’ll be available the rest of the day to answer any additional questions you may have. Operator?

Operator

Operator

That concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.