Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to Deere’s Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Tony Huegel, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
Deere & Company (DE)
Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Wed, May 16, 2012
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Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to Deere’s Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Tony Huegel, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
Tony Huegel
Management
Good morning. Also on the call today are Jim Field, our Chief Financial Officer; Marie Ziegler, Vice President and Treasurer; and Susan Karlix, Manager, Investor Communications. Today we’ll take a closer look at Deere’s second quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and the outlook for the remainder of 2012. After that, we’ll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our Web site at www.johndeere.com. First, a reminder. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere and Thompson Reuters. Any other use, recording, or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the expressed written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call. This call includes forward-looking comments concerning the company’s projections, plans and objectives for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company’s most recent Form 8-K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, or GAAP. Additionally, information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our Web site at www.johndeere.com/financialreports under Other Financial Information. Now, here’s Susan.
Susan Karlix
Management
Quarterly net income surpassed $1 billion for the first time. Revenues also broke new ground topping the $10 billion mark. Another category that hit a new quarterly high was Economic Profit, or SBA, which was greater in the second quarter than in all but four full previous years. Ag and Turf led the way, but our other divisions, Construction and Forestry and Financial Services contributed to our performance as well. As cited in our earnings announcement, John Deere is continuing to benefit from a global farm economy that CEO Sam Allen said is showing impressive strength and endurance. This has led to a big increase in demand for our products and we have raised our full year earnings forecast to about $3.35 billion. It was, in summary, a record-breaking quarter and one that puts Deere squarely on course for another terrific year. Now let’s look at the second quarter in detail starting on Slide 4. Net sales and revenues were up 12% to $10 billion in the quarter. Net income attributable to Deere & Company was about $1.1 billion. On Slide 5, total worldwide equipment operations net sales were $9.4 billion, up 13% quarter over quarter. At comps and exchange, sales were up 15%. Price realization in the quarter was positive by 5 points. Turning to a review of our individual businesses, let’s start with Agriculture and Turf on Slide 6. Sales were up 11% in the quarter. Operating profit was $1.4 billion, resulting in a record-setting 18% operating margin. Results benefitted from higher shipment volumes and price realizations, partially offset by increased production costs related to new products and engine emission requirements, as well as higher raw material costs and research and development expenses. Before we review the industry sales outlook, let’s look at some of the fundamentals affecting…
Tony Huegel
Management
Thank you, Susan. Now we’re ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the calling procedure, but as a reminder, in consideration of others, please limit yourself to one question and one related follow-up. If you have additional questions, we ask that you rejoin the queue. Operator?
Operator
Operator
(Operator instructions) Our first question comes from Henry Kirn. Please state your company name. Henry Kirn – UBS : Hi. Good morning, guys. It’s UBS.
Tony Huegel
Management
Hi, Henry.
Jim Field
Analyst
Good morning, Henry. Henry Kirn – UBS : I’m wondering if you could talk about Europe, maybe the progress with your market share goals in Europe, the credit availability in the market and your thoughts on any risks to subsidies given recent elections in that key market.
Tony Huegel
Management
I’ll start with the credit availability. Credit still remains available and readily available in the market. As we’ve talked about in the past, the market in general is more affected negatively in the south, but the northern part of Europe, which tends to be stronger markets for Deere, continues to be very strong, so as you see in our outlook, we continue to look for flat to up 5% in the market for the year.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
There’s been no change in government posturing or commentary on CAP reform, so it continues to be strong in current year, next year, and then starting in 2014, it is basically frozen at the level of payments, which are supportive of farm income, and it stays there through 2020, so there’s been no change in that.
Jim Field
Analyst
And then in terms of where we are, I would say, with our plans in Europe -- actually, I was just there a couple weeks ago with Sam and reviewing the progress on implementing the dealer of tomorrow, which is an integral component of our long-range plans for Europe and that’s progressing on track. Henry Kirn – UBS : That’s helpful, and on South America, could you talk about the content -- the competitive dynamics given the weaker forecast?
Tony Huegel
Management
The weaker forecast, really, is more of a function of two things. Of course, there was some weather impact from the drought that affected both southern Brazil and Argentina, but more importantly, we’ve lowered our outlook for Argentina specifically, basically through dealing with some challenges there around some of the government policies.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Thanks, Henry.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Eli Lustgarten. Please state your company name. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: Longbow Securities. Good morning, everyone.
Tony Huegel
Management
Good morning, Eli. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: Can we talk a little bit about production in the Ag business? You had a hell of a second quarter. Volume was a little lighter than we expected, I think original consensus on those numbers, and profitability was sort of outstanding. Was some production shifted to the third quarter, that way we didn’t see any tonnage numbers this quarter? Because it looks like you’re going to have a bigger third quarter than second quarter in Ag. Can you give some color of what’s happening in the shipments? And profitability, I guess you’re implying in Ag it will be lower in the second half of the year than included in the second quarter.
Tony Huegel
Management
In terms of the second quarter being a little lower than the outlook we had given in February, really, that’s driven by three areas. You mentioned South America. Argentina in particular, was much lower than what we had anticipated, and then also Asia, so India and China. Both were lower in the quarter than we had forecasted.
James Field
Analyst
Eli, this is Jim. The way -- maybe another way to get at your question is if you look at the first half of the year versus the second half. The second half versus the first half, shipments are going to be up about 20%, but when you look at what’s going on, absorption will be down $150 million, which we said is part of the issue of why we’ve got the inventory built up at the second quarter. Some of that’s going to get released, obviously a significant portion, in the third and fourth quarter, so when you’re doing the analyses on first half versus second half, that absorption impact is a big portion of it. The second piece of it, when you do that analysis, first half versus second half, we’ve given the SA&G guidance and you can see that that’s up pretty significant in the second half if we’re going to hit our SA&G guidance. And that really is a reflection of how we feel about the market conditions. We’re investing in increased marketing expenses. Of course there’s an element of it that’s variable related to service publications and all that, but I would very much also read that, in connection with the increased inventory levels, that we’re going to end the year out with the notion that Sam said, that these trends are looking very enduring. Thank you. Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities: Okay, and can we follow it a bit, follow that with talk about the Construction & Forestry business? I guess volume was as strong as anyone expected. Margins were a little bit weaker. You started to explain some of it, but will we begin to see some improvement in the second half on margin? Your 8% implication says that we should have 8% margins in the second half versus it was roughly 8% in the first half. So are we seeing better profitability and a better mix in the second half, or what can we expect in the Construction & Forestry, and particularly if we look out towards the end of the year? Will volumes hold or is there any fear that the United Rentals are overspending in the first half and not in the second half?
Tony Huegel
Management
Sure. As it relates to mix, maybe it would help to give a little bit more color on that. Some of the differences year over year in mix is remember last year, we converted to SAP, so there was a ramp up of production ahead of that, knowing that the facilities would be shut down for a period of time, and so on core construction equipment products, production was heavier than normal last year and the margins are attractive, certainly, on those products. And then we also, this year, those -- a couple of those key construction products were going through Interim Tier 4 conversion, so year over year, the production was lower on that product, and as a result, there was a higher level of partner product in the mix than what would be normally. But again, from an order intake perspective, things are very positive and we feel pretty strongly about the second half of the year for that division. A lot of it’s just mix and shifting of when that production is occurring year over year. Okay, can we move to the next question?
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Jerry Revich. Please state your company name. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs : Good morning. It’s Goldman Sachs.
Tony Huegel
Management
Good morning, Jerry.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Good morning, Jerry. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs : On pricing, you had excellent realization in the quarter. Can you say more about the drivers of the acceleration that you saw, and with your US production rates rising in the back half of the year, step us through why your guidance assumes pricing slows in the back half?
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Our guidance for the full year is 4 points. We probably had a little bit of a favorable mix, but I wouldn’t read anything into it, I think in terms of the timing of some of the product launches, so really, no story there. Jerry Revich – Goldman Sachs : Can you say more about the mix in the quarter, Marie?
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
I think we’ve talked a little bit about the fact that -- and maybe the most significant thing that we haven’t addressed, let me start over, is in terms of our combines. Combines, as you may recall, last year were very front end-loaded. If you go back over on average over time, we have about 35% of our combine sales are shipped in the first half of the year and it’s about 65% in the back half. Last year we were 50/50. This year it’s more like 25%/75%, so you’ve got a lot of these combines that are coming in the back half of the year for the Ag division. And that has to do, really, with the move to Interim Tier 4 and the way we managed our production to meet market needs and optimize our ability to serve our customers.
Jim Field
Analyst
And then I would add, Jerry, because we only give pricing in whole percentage increments, 50 basis points one way or another way can vacillate us to 4 or 5, so I think when Marie said there’s not a real story there, there’s -- we continue to expect a strong price realization and a very good acceptance of our product and, of course, our guidance is for, and we’d be delighted if it ends up at, 5, but that’s where we’re at. Thank you.
Tony Huegel
Management
Okay, thanks. Next caller?
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Steven Volkmann. Please state your company name. Mr. Volkmann, please check your mute button. We’re unable to hear you.
Tony Huegel
Management
Why don’t we go ahead and go to the next caller and then we’ll try to get Steve back in.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Ann Duignan. Please state your company name. Ann Duignan – JPMorgan: Hi. JP Morgan.
Tony Huegel
Management
Good morning. Ann Duignan – JPMorgan: Good morning, guys. Can you talk a little bit about the changing practices in agriculture on the back of greater corn-on-corn acres and the increase in the total acres for crops, what that’s doing to demand for things like large horsepower tractors, et cetera, et cetera? And then in conjunction with that, does that tie in to your comments about ending the year with greater inventory? Can you talk about any forward outlook you have into -- I know, Marie, you won’t give guidance for 2013, but are you -- we heard from dealers last week that they were taking orders already for things like planters into 2013. Can you just talk about what might be driving some of that in terms of the changing practices in the Midwest?
Jim Field
Analyst
Ann, this is Jim. Why don’t I start with the whole corn-on-corn question? Obviously, when you have corn-on-corn, and to the extent that that is a long-term shift in practices, it’s nothing but positive for Deere. It means more activity in the field because you’re either going to have to come through with some tillage instrument to deal with the debris or you’re going to have to put a chopper head on a combine, and therefore, the horsepower requirements for the combines, all other things being equal, would increase somewhat to deal with the increased load from the chopping head. So that practice of corn-on-corn, which seems to be a growing practice, is something that is positive and nearly in basically every respect to Deere because it means more activity in the field, it means higher hours on tractors, all those sorts of things. In terms of the increased acreage, I think -- and what’s going on in general, I think just speaks to our long-term belief that the fundamental dynamics of the agricultural equipment businesses are very good and very positive with lots of positive macroeconomic tailwinds. Ann Duignan – JPMorgan: And maybe to follow on that, then, the frustrating thing for us to understand the fundamentals is your commentary to investors that some of your end markets in the US are at 120% of normal. Can you talk about the conflict between both of those comments?
Jim Field
Analyst
Well, the way -- first of all, it’s really important for folks to understand how we establish normal, and that’s a backward-looking calculation, basically an average of the prior seven years, so to the extent that you have a growing market, our measurements as a percent of normals are lagging. They lag and so they don’t reflect that in the normals. But I would say a couple other things, that you’re right. You predicted quite correctly that Marie’s not going to give you 2013 outlook, but look, we’re bringing on capacity, we’ve got higher SA&G expenses in the second half of the year, we’re building inventory and we’re going to end with higher levels of inventory. I think there’s a reasonable inference that could be drawn as to what we think the prospects are for 2013. I hope that was helpful. Thank you, Ann.
Tony Huegel
Management
Thank you. Can we go to the next caller, please?
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer. Please state your company name. Rob Wertheimer – Vertical Research Partners: It’s Vertical Research Partners. Good morning, everybody.
Tony Huegel
Management
Hi. Rob Wertheimer – Vertical Research Partners: I just wanted to ask, if you wouldn’t mind, of a state of the union on the Construction & Forestry business. I asked this last quarter a little bit and I’m well aware that in the US, we’re still as an industry well below normal, but your revenues are hitting record highs. I’m just curious if that’s strictly in the US, if that’s geographically expansive? Could you just give us a timeframe of how that business is trending geographically/what’s going on there?
Tony Huegel
Management
Certainly, we’ve, from a market share perspective, we have, over recent years, had taken some very good market share. As you may have heard us talk about before today, we are a clear number two provider in the US and Canada markets on construction. And actually, our market share, while we don’t disclose that in this region, we are the clear -- we are actually closer to number one than what number three would be to us. The other thing we’ve done in that process is a much broader -- brought a much broader portfolio to the market. We’ve also talked a lot about price realization over the last decade, averaging over 3 points of positive price realization year over year for the company, and of course, C&F has contributed to that, as well. So as you look at all of those factors, while on a net sales basis, it looks like we’re at record sales levels, from a unit sales perspective, the industry in the US and Canada is still at relatively low levels.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Maybe just to add on, as we look at our international business, that’s still in the Construction & Forestry division, a relatively small piece of the business, but it is up. But we are seeing strength in several segments in the US or recovery, and that includes independent rental companies, as well as our dealers investing in some rental activity. We have strength in Material Handling and a lot of that is related to Ag activity, strength in Industrial and Energy, so there are some segments in the US that are recovering. Rob Wertheimer – Vertical Research Partners: Great. That was really helpful, thank you. Tony, in national, we talked a little about the implements and how you had really nice sales in attachments to in implements. Can you talk structurally about, as the curve has been so strong in tractors and combines, have expensive planters or other implements capped up or have they lagged and farmers -- Has it been one for one? Has it been better than one for one because people put more updated attachments on older machines? Or is it lagging and people bought the power and now they’re buying the rest of the complex? Thanks.
Jim Field
Analyst
Hi, Rob. This is Jim. I would tell you in general what we’re seeing across the entire large Ag portfolio. Sprayers, tillage, seeding equipment is reasonably strong, as well, and I can’t tell you if it’s one for one, but all sectors are seeing some pretty significant strength and farmers are investing their healthy cash flows in equipment.
Tony Huegel
Management
Right, and we talked about earlier in the year along that line with -- you mentioned seeding equipment and that’s typically our early order program for that product line. Normally, it’s a three-stage early order program. It actually sold out in the first stage. Last year, tillage equipment, I think for the first time ever, we actually sold out. We were at capacity on tillage equipment for the year, so these other implements actually have had a very strong year, as well.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Thank you.
Tony Huegel
Management
Thank you. Let’s move to the next caller.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Lawrence DeMaria. Please state your company name. Lawrence DeMaria – William Blair: Hi. Good morning. From William Blair. Can you guys just talk a little about Europe? Now that you have all the new products here that were launched last year into this year, and now working on the dealerships, obviously, are you seeing any market share changes yet? And if not, do you expect that to accelerate over the next year or so?
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Larry, a lot of those new products just launched into the market. We have good order intake. We’re very excited about the opportunities and we believe that will translate into good sales activity as we move through time, but again, some of those products are just newly into production. Lawrence DeMaria – William Blair: Okay, thanks, and then as it relates to the expansion in Brazil and China for construction, obviously you stated you’re still expanding there, but is there any slowdown on the timing of the expansion given the current market dynamics in those two obviously important regions?
Tony Huegel
Management
No, there’s no change on either of those. Could we move to the next caller? Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Jamie Cook. Please state your company name. Analyst for Jamie Cook – Credit Suisse : This is Andrew Briscalia [ph] on behalf of Jamie Cook, Credit Suisse.
Tony Huegel
Management
Good morning. Analyst for Jamie Cook – Credit Suisse : Looking just at your incrementals, how should we think of 2012 as a peak, looking at your incrementals or Ag, and just longer term, how should we think of emissions, mix, change of mix and capacity impacting your incrementals?
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
We have a long-term project within the company to continue to improve our operating margin. That’s -- we internally refer to that as E700. There is a tremendous amount of work being done there, so we are aspiring to higher margins than we currently deliver on average over time. That said, we are well on our way to recovering the product costs for Interim Tier 4. That said, there’s more spend ahead of us as we look to Final Tier 4, which those compliance dates begin 2014-’15, but there -- we will, over the course of this year, we will have recovered most, and by 2013, it’s fair to say we will have recovered nearly all of the product costs. Analyst for Jamie Cook – Credit Suisse : Okay, that’s helpful, and then just on your capital allocation, just a question on looking at your share repurchase, is there a chance of being a little more aggressive given where the stock’s pricing and what’s your bear case on the US Ag?
Tony Huegel
Management
Certainly, as we’ve stated in the past, we don’t have any set target that we communicate or anything along that line with the share repurchase, but we do look at our share repurchase program as a value-enhancing use of cash, and so, certainly, as -- when the stock price is at -- below what we would deem fair value for the company, we would certainly respond accordingly. Okay, thank you. Let’s move to the next caller, please.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Andy Casey. Please state your company name. Andy Casey – Wells Fargo Securities: Wells Fargo Securities. Good morning, everyone.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Good morning.
Tony Huegel
Management
Good morning. Andy Casey – Wells Fargo Securities: Just a quick question. You may have indirectly answered this, but the full year and the Q3 revenue guidance seems to indicate a growth pace moderation to around 10% as you go into the back quarter of the year from the 25% in Q3. Can you provide a little bit more color on the assumptions behind that trend?
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
I think you’re still dealing with some of the aftermath of Interim Tier 4 product transitions and I would not read anything into it. Again, we’ve increased our outlook for ND inventories. Andy Casey – Wells Fargo Securities: Okay. I’ll take the rest of them offline. Thank you.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Thank you, Andy.
Tony Huegel
Management
Next caller?
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Vance Edelson. Please state your company name. Vance Edelson – Morgan Stanley: Hi. It’s Morgan Stanley. Thanks. In terms of C&F having such a strong quarter, beyond the product mix shifts and your own market share gains, could you provide a little more on the conditions in the US by end market, so across commercial construction infrastructure, even the single family? What are the trends you’re seeing out there most recently and do you feel confident that conditions are going to keep improving?
Tony Huegel
Management
Well, certainly, Marie mentioned the three or four areas where we’re seeing strength. Today if you look at where housing starts are, while they are improving, from a historic basis, they’re at very low levels, so as a result, you’re not seeing a lot of contribution from the housing market relative to these other areas. But again, we are seeing some signs of life, if you will, in those markets and are certainly hopeful that that will continue to improve as we move forward.
Jim Field
Analyst
And I think the other thing, if you just look at an aggregate and you look at where the aggregate industry unit sales are relative to the history, that would suggest that there’s plenty of runway in the construction business in North America. We have had record levels of sales, but if you look at the overall industry, it’s far below what folks would consider to be normal. Vance Edelson – Morgan Stanley: Okay, that’s very helpful. And then just back on Ag and Turf, with the pricing getting stronger during the quarter, could you just walk us through pricing power by region? Are there any geographies where you feel you have a notable ability to raise prices, and conversely, any place where there’s more customer sensitivity or greater competition that might keep a lid on pricing?
Tony Huegel
Management
As you may be aware, Vance, we do not provide any more granularity to the price realization, either by division or by geography, but it is safe to say that all geographies and all divisions are contributing to the price and that’s about all we can say. So, thank you. Let’s move on to the next caller, please.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz. Please state your company name. Andy Kaplowitz – Barclays Capital: Good morning, guys. Barclays.
Tony Huegel
Management
Good morning. Andy Kaplowitz – Barclays Capital: Can you hear me okay?
Tony Huegel
Management
Yes. Andy Kaplowitz – Barclays Capital: Maybe if I could kind of push you a little bit on C&F margins, Susan, you mentioned 5 points of negative mix effects. It seems like a lot of these negative mix effects should go away within the next two to three quarters as you transition from IT4 on some of these big, big pieces of equipment and that shouldn’t last much longer. I know that the expenses from the build-out internationally are going to continue, but maybe if you could comment on these 5 points going away over the next couple quarters.
Tony Huegel
Management
First of all, I want to clarify, the 5 points was not mix alone. That included mix, R&D and growth, so it’s the combination of those three. Certainly, the mix impact, as we talked about, in the quarter should soften, at least, but certainly the R&D and growth expenses will not. Those will continue on through the year as we look to grow internationally. Andy Kaplowitz – Barclays Capital: Okay. Maybe I’ll just shift gears, then, Tony, and ask about the CIS region. You didn’t change your outlook for that region in Ag, but up a considerable amount is obviously a little nebulous, and you have expanded or you announced another Waterloo expansion. I think a lot of that would go internationally, so maybe you can comment on the strength of that region, especially Russia, and what the impact is on your business.
Tony Huegel
Management
Certainly, while we don’t give a numeric outlook for that region, at this point, the sales are certainly very favorable and up strongly this year. Russia, in particular, is up strongly year over year. You are correct; we do sell a significant number of Waterloo tractors into that market as well as large combines from our East Moline, Illinois facility, not to mention some construction equipment, as well, and forestry.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Seth Weber. Please state your company name. Seth Weber – RBC Capital Markets : Hi. Good morning. It’s RBC. Sorry if I missed this, but on the -- you had previously talked about $500 million of IT costs for the year and that being front end-loaded. Can you just give us some granularity on where we are on that relative to that number first half or second half?
Tony Huegel
Management
Sure. So far what we talked about was IT4 costs year to date. The IT4 cost was not the front end-loaded portion. What you may be thinking of is the raw material cost, the $400 million. Seth Weber – RBC Capital Markets : Okay.
Tony Huegel
Management
Was more front end-loaded, and we’re actually more than three-fourths of the way -- of that has already been spent through the second quarter of the year on the raw material. Interim Tier 4 actually accelerates as you go through the year. We talked about in the first quarter roughly $75 million. This quarter was roughly $135 million, and as we continue to convert product, obviously you have more products and that results in higher costs. Seth Weber – RBC Capital Markets : Okay, that’s helpful. Thanks, Tony. And then, I guess, a follow-up, the higher industry outlook for North America on the Ag side, would you characterize that as coming from high horsepower equipment or do you think the smaller equipment is pushing the increase there?
Tony Huegel
Management
The increase would be large Ag. Seth Weber – RBC Capital Markets : Large Ag? Okay. Thank you very much.
Tony Huegel
Management
Thank you. Next caller?
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from David Raso. Please state your company name. David Raso – ISI Group: ISI. I’m trying to get a better read on your confidence in the 2013 demand based on your inventory. I can take you to the calc how I get to it, but essentially, I’m looking at your inventory calced about $1.1 billion higher than normal in the sense of where the inventory is relative to the next six months’ sales you’re expecting versus the historical norm. Of that $1.1 billion, just to maybe give us a little better feel, how much of that would you argue is confidence in ’13? I’m just trying to get a feel for how much was simply maybe a little overbilled versus that large of number, there’s that much confidence in the spring selling season for ’13 already. You can answer that any way you’d like, but $1.1 billion’s a sizable number the way I’m calculating it.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
It’s very early, but we see many areas of the world where things continue to be very strong, including North America, and so in order to be sure that we can meet customer demand, we are putting some additional product plans in place and that’s reflected in the ending inventory. It’s premature for us, much as I think we all would like to know what 2013 is going to look like, it’s premature for us to provide definitive guidance at this point, but the trends, the fundamentals, appear very stable in many parts of the world. David Raso – ISI Group: Could you help us with a little more geographic color on where you’re most confident geographically? Obviously, we can extrapolate the margin benefit or detriment to that comment, but just where are you having the most confidence geographically to have that level of inventory at this stage of the year?
Jim Field
Analyst
Well, clearly, large Ag in North America, as indicated by our industry outlooks, is where a significant source of the strength is. But going back to your question is the way we like to look at it is receivables and inventory together, and when I look at it on that basis, I see a number that’s slightly higher than the percentage -- a slightly higher percentage than our historical norm for very high sales activity levels, but nothing that we believe is concerning. The other issue is, if you look back at history, we’ve vastly built out our parts distribution network and put parts distribution facilities in Russia, we’ve expanded the parts distribution facility in Brazil, all of which is aimed at the John Deere Value Proposition, so some of that inventory is also there supporting that initiative. Thank you, David.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Joel Tiss. Please state your company name. Joel Tiss – Buckingham Research: Hi. Buckingham Research. I wonder if you can -- Can you give us a little more help on, even if you just aggregated all together on what the costs of all your various expansions are, I guess the twelve new plants, and how those costs flow through 2012 and 2013? And to the extent you can, any sort of an idea what revenue capacity you’re building in? So, I know you’re not going to tell us that, but maybe like the increments to how much you’re adding 20% to Russia or whatever, just to help us understand how this all fits together and it might help us with the flow of numbers into ’13 and ’14.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Growth and SG&A we’re saying is up 4 points for the full year, and that’s maybe indicative of the kind of expenses that we’re seeing. There are incrementally a few costs in manufacturing because you’re putting in a little bit of personnel into those places, but that’s really where the bulk of the increment is at this stage of the game. And in terms of what our future revenue potential is, the only thing that we’ve really publicly stated is that -- is going back to the Waterloo opportunity, and there, we’ve got another 10% capacity well ahead of us, and that’s really the only area that we’ve put anything to numbers.
Jim Field
Analyst
The only thing I would add to that, Joel, is that we’re not going to talk about what the incremental growth opportunity is in ’13 or ’14, but we would tell you that these are the expenditures that’s going to enable the revised John Deere strategy, which would ultimately get us to doubling the company by 2018, so thank you.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Next question, please?
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Ashish Gupta. Please state your company name. Ashish Gupta – Credit Agricole Securities: DRC [ph]. Hi. Good morning. It’s great to hear your confidence in 2013. In reference to the slide on Waterloo, can you just walk us through the impact to your margins for making increasing equipment in North America and selling it internationally specifically? I’m just trying to -- wonder if there’s a transfer pricing that makes international margins appear lower under GAAP?
Tony Huegel
Management
Yes, if you look under GAAP, when we report the outside US/Canada margins, that is heavily -- that’s influenced by transfer pricing, so to your point, with the Waterloo tractors as an example, when we sell those tractors in Europe, for example, the outside US and Canada portion is only going to receive, really, the marketing margin, so the more significant manufacturing margin gets reported in the US region, so when you look at those numbers, it does distort, in many cases, where the -- it distorts the margin in outside US and Canada. When we look at it internally from a profit by a product basis and don’t -- and basically strip out the transfer pricing, in many cases, the margins on tractors, for example, regardless of where they’re sold in the world, the margins are very comparable. Of course, you have additional shipping and logistics costs, but outside of that, the margins are very comparable. Ashish Gupta – Credit Agricole Securities: That’s really helpful. If I could sneak in just one more, with all these capacity expansions, I’m just wondering, do you believe you’re under producing global demand in Ag, large Ag?
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
I’ll take that. I would say at Waterloo and at Harvester, we’re working very hard to squeak out any incremental production that we can.
Jim Field
Analyst
And also, I think that would be true in cotton. We’ve struggled to keep up with the demand in spring, as well. Thank you very much.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
We’ve got time for one more question.
Operator
Operator
Our last question comes from Andrew Obin. Please state your company name. Andrew Obin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: It’s Bank of American Merrill Lynch. Can you hear me?
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Yes, we can. Andrew Obin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Just to follow up on Joel’s question, in terms of your growth costs in C&F, could you quantify them, just specifically that piece, and when do these run off? So this is the Brazilian factory, Chinese expansion, that’s what I mean.
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Those factories will start production next year, so you would have a -- you’ll be in some period of ramp up, certainly, probably into 2014 as new product ships in, so you’re a ways away from that. But again, you don’t have any actual manufacturing taking place right now, so the growth costs are really represented in that SG&A. Andrew Obin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: But out of these 5% percentage points that you guys talked about, is growth half? Just give us sense how much of it will linger?
Marie Ziegler
Analyst
Maybe as we look through the full year, it would be a better way. We know that mix neutralizes, but we’re going to continue to see some growth expenses. We’ve got a little heavier weighting on IT4 product costs, a little bit of raw material coming in in the second half for them, so it continues. We’re not going to provide any more granularity at this point. Do you have another question, Andrew? I think maybe we lost Andrew. With that, thank you very much. We’ll be around this afternoon to answer your questions. Good day.
Operator
Operator
And that concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.