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DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD)

Q1 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 26, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to The Dow Chemical Company's First Quarter 2012 Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Also today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Doug May, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Doug May

Analyst

Thank you, Audra, and good morning, everyone, and welcome. We are making this call available to investors and the media via webcast. This call is the property of The Dow Chemical Company. Any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call in any form without Dow's express written consent is strictly prohibited. On the call with me today are Andrew Liveris, Dow's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Bill Weideman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Dave Johnson, Director in Investor Relations. Around 7:00 a.m. this morning, April 26, our earnings release went out on Business Wire and was posted on the Internet on dow.com. We have prepared slides to supplement our comments in this conference call. These slides are posted on our website on the Presentations page of the Investor Relations section and through the link to our webcast. Now some of our comments today include statements about our expectations for the future. Those expectations involve risks and uncertainties. We can't guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or estimates, and we don't plan to update any forward-looking statements during the quarter. If you'd like more information on the risks involved in forward-looking statements, please see our SEC filings. In addition, some of our comments reference non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and on our website. Unless otherwise specified, all comparisons presented today are on a year-over-year basis. Sales, volume and price comparisons exclude divestitures and EBITDA and EBITDA margins and earnings comparisons are adjusted to exclude certain items. Our earnings release as well as recent SEC filings are available on the Internet at dow.com. The agenda for today's call is on Slide 3. I'll now hand the call over to Andrew.

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Thank you, Doug, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Let's go to Slide 4. Dow demonstrated strength and stability this quarter, executing swiftly and purposefully in the midst of uncertain macro conditions, and we exited the period with momentum. Recall that in our last earnings conference call we projected headwinds would linger into the first quarter of 2012 and that momentum would build as the quarter and the year progressed. In fact, the quarter played out as we anticipated, with macroeconomic volatility impacting a number of our markets and businesses. But despite this, we continued to execute against our goals and deliver value for our shareholders. Here are some highlights. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.61. Adjusted sales grew 4%, representing Dow's 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year sales gains. While strong revenue growth in Agricultural Sciences was certainly a headline, equally compelling was a strong performance from Dow Water and Process Solutions, Dow Elastomers, Dow Functional Materials and Polyglycols and Surfactants, each of which achieved first quarter sales records. And our geographic diversity benefited us once again this quarter. Developed regions began showing signs of returning strength, particularly in the United States, which posted 5% sales growth. And our emerging regions achieved their 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year volume growth. As a result, we delivered $2.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA with records in a number of our businesses including Functional Materials, Dow Elastomers, Dow Automotive Systems and, of course, Dow Agricultural Sciences. Also this quarter, we took swift, targeted actions to drive further efficiencies in our operations and liberate resources that enable us to invest in attractive sectors and regions. And finally, we continued our sharp focus on capital management, reducing both debt and interest expense and remaining firmly on track to reach our net debt to…

William H. Weideman

Analyst

Thank you, Andrew. I'd like to remind you that my comments today will be on a year-over-year basis. Sales, volume and price comparisons are adjusted to exclude divestitures and earnings comparisons are adjusted to exclude certain items. Now turning to Slide 6. Adjusted sales rose 4% to $14.7 billion. EBITDA was $2.1 billion, with increases in Agricultural Sciences, and Electronic and Functional Materials. On a reported basis, earnings were $0.35 per share or $0.61 per share on an adjusted basis. This included $0.25 charge relating to our restructuring cost reduction actions announced earlier this month and a $0.01 charge related to the early extinguishment of debt. We believe this represents a strong result and results -- and reflects our focus on execution even in the midst of dynamic market conditions. Now let me turn to volume and price trends on Slide 7. Volume was up 3%, driven by strong demand in Agricultural Sciences, and Feedstocks and Energy, followed by modest gains in Performance Materials. Improvements in consumer confidence drove a 2% increase in our volumes in the U.S. We posted volume improvements in both the developed and emerging regions, with the strongest growth in Europe, Middle East and Africa. The volume increase in Europe was primarily driven by sales of propylene, the result of a new supply agreement from the sale of our Polypropylene business late last year. Volume declined year-over-year in Latin America, reflecting the shutdown of our TDI plant in Brazil. Volume also declined in Asia Pacific, where soft demand in Electronics continued. Price was up 1% versus the first quarter last year with gains in Feedstocks and Energy, Agricultural Sciences and Electronic and Functional Materials. Now turning to our operating segment, starting with Electronic and Functional Materials on Slide 8. Electronic Materials volume declined due to continued…

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Thank you, Bill. As you can see Dow continues to advance its strategy, and we are doing so with a laser-like focus on execution, deriving value from all key value drivers shown on Slide 14. These are drivers that place us in a unique position to deliver shareholder value, both in the near term as well as over the long term. First, our world leading feedstock advantage, an advantage that will strengthen in the back half of this year and even longer term as we invest for growth, both on the U.S. Gulf Coast as well as in the Middle East. Second, our ability to pivot within our integrated portfolio and maximize the diversity of our geographic footprint to capitalize on growth wherever it is happening. Next, driving the value of our innovation pipeline to the bottom line, enabling customers and shareholders to realize the benefits of the game-changing products and technologies we are bringing to the market. And finally, managing our capital and cost structure to drive efficiencies and reduce debt. We are making tremendous strides in every front, beginning with our strong feedstock position and investments we are making to further bolster this competitive advantage. And looking at Slide 15, we have long said that we expect favorable dynamics in the ethylene cycle to continue. In fact, our industry is rapidly progressing towards the intersection of 3 compelling and disruptive trends. One, persistently favorable oil-to-gas ratios. Never before have we seen an oil-to-gas spread as attractive as what we see today. Higher oil and therefore, higher naphtha prices has placed upward pressure on ethylene derivative pricing. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are at all-time lows. However, we do expect prices to stabilize over time in about the $4 range, encouraging an increasing supply and attractive economics for natural gas…

Doug May

Analyst

Thank you, Andrew. Now we'll move onto your questions. First, however, I'd like to remind you that our comments regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Audra, will you please explain the Q&A procedure?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll go first to P.J. Juvekar at Citi.

P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Your Performance Plastics results were somewhat negatively impacted by crackers in Europe and Asia. Have you looked at sending NGLs like propylene from U.S. to some of your crackers in Europe, and does that make financial sense?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Yes, so thank you for the clarify on Performance Plastics in the quarter, that's indeed the right observation. The compression of margins in Western Europe, many are in negative cash margin territory. We're in positive territory because of our flexi-crackers over there which, of course, then, as your question, which can we take LPGs from low-cost jurisdictions into those crackers. The answer is yes. Have we looked at U.S. exports in particular? We are evaluating that sort of thing. The real key issue is export terminal availability, especially on propane. But we are looking into it for Terneuzen in particular.

P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

And just quick question on ag particularly in Seeds. You got great treatment technology, but you seem to be limited by your germplasm both here and in Latin America. Is there any thought about rounding that out through M&A or other options?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Well, so ag as you -- to go backwards on your question, Latin America, we're already in double-digit territory without any feel for constraint on germplasm. In fact, our germplasm for corn and soy and cotton, we are very happy with in the U.S. as well. And in fact, we're building our position in corn without the need to go and acquire a hell a lot more germplasm because we have channels that we can get to and negotiate licensing agreements to give us value to our shareholders. However, having said that, we also -- I want you to note that, that I can talk about Enlist as a unique and unbelievable opportunity to help us with respect to maximizing the value in those channels, because we will have the most complete insect and herbicide trait package through SmartStax and Enlist. And we're looking at the next 2 years as further game changers in our access to market whether that be direct germplasm ourselves and especially in corn to get to double-digit market share, as we talked about several years ago or indeed to, in fact, do licensing.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Andy Cash at UBS.

Andrew W. Cash - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Play off of what P.J. is talking about, these crackers. Our understanding is that in the Middle East a number of the ethylene producers were actually operating below 90% in the first quarter. So I'm just curious what was Dow's experience in the first quarter, and if it was less than 90%, why would that be the case given the very low-cost position against the naphtha crackers in Europe and elsewhere?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Well, so turnarounds to -- you'll remember we've started turnarounds, so you got to take that out, but if you look at the crackers that were operating actually globally, they're all in the 90% range. So all higher and especially the U.S. Canadian crackers, which of course, as you just noted in your question, Andy, low-cost. We have lots of turnarounds this quarter. It's a big turnaround season, not really any different to this time last year it's what we see every year about -- in the spring season, if you like, in the northern hemisphere. But we really do expect 90% operating rates once they're all up and running in the back half of this year.

Andrew W. Cash - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And just secondly, what were your turnaround costs in the year-ago quarter? You said it'd be up about $100 million from the first quarter, but what were they last year?

William H. Weideman

Analyst

Yes. Andy, this is Bill. In the second quarter of last year, our turnaround costs were $291 million. So about $290 million. And this quarter, we're -- or second quarter this year, we're projecting around $300 million. So it'll be very similar to a year ago, but as you mentioned they will be up $100 million versus first quarter due to the summer months is when we do most of the turnaround.

Operator

Operator

Next, we'll move to John McNulty at Crédit Suisse. John P. McNulty - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Just a couple quick questions. On ag, when I look at the revenue generation, it was significant. It looks like record-breaking, and yet when we look at the margins, the margins aren't at record-breaking levels, they're actually below where they've been for the last couple of years. So I guess if you can walk us through maybe the disconnect there, and how we should be thinking about that going forward.

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Well, the key is we had, in our view, a record top and bottom line quarter driven by gains in both price and volume, but we have a lot of front-loading on the big launches going on not the least of them being Enlist. So that's why you should see it, we're scaling up SG&A in particular now, to the first question that was asked, I think by P.J., in terms of what we're going to do to actually see access to market. We're building that access through direct channel, and that's what you're seeing at the front end in terms of maybe taking away a little bit from the bottom line. John P. McNulty - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay, great. That makes sense. And then just with regard to Enlist, is it still on schedule for a late '12, early '13 launch? Is that still kind of the time frame, or is there any change to that?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Yes. It's on time. You made me do a double negative there. Yes, it is on time for late '12.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Don Carson at Susquehanna Financial.

Donald Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

Andrew, you talked about ethylene operating rates getting above 90% in the next year, so I'm just wondering. Is that sort of a comment on how positive you are about economic growth, or do you see some pent-up restocking going on? And maybe as part of that, can you just comment on how you see the balance of this year shaping up, particularly in demand out of Asia?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Yes. So I think it's -- the last part of your point is the Asian dynamic has been quite troubled for lots of reasons. Not the least of them being Japan and post-tsunami Japan, and many -- much of the capacity not coming back up again. And then, of course, the squeeze on margins out there due to the higher oil and naphtha price. Even many of the state owned crackers in China are under severe pressure to actually change their entire footprint. We ourselves have been asked to come in and help them. In fact, help them with flexi-crackers and they want to start in their shale gas in a big way, not that they've discovered a lot yet. But you can see a new dynamic happening in Asia, which is running crackers where they have return on capital as their metric rather than just running them. And that's creating a very different dynamic in terms of North American exports to Asia. I tell you, Don, we're about to enter, unless we do something really silly on energy policy, a golden age again for North American exports to Asia based on the new dynamic in Asia and good solid growth, 7.5% in China is slower than normal, but still very solid growth as well as the North America arbitrage ethane to naphtha. We'll create operating rates that we feel will be for the next 3 or 4 years in the 90-plus range, but U.S. will be the exporter of very close second resort, if not competitive with many of the crackers even in the Middle East. John P. McNulty - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: And just as a follow-up, any update on the Kuwaiti arbitration, which always seems to be 4 to 6 weeks away?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

I take your comment with a grain of salt that my answer will now provide you I said days, weeks, not months, and I'll stay there.

Operator

Operator

Next one to Bob Koort at Goldman Sachs.

Robert Koort - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Andrew, I get a sense from some investors' reluctance to take a position in your stock ahead of the summer where there seems to be some speculation that there's going to a crashing of ethylene margins. And I guess when I look at the ethane costs out in the future, they're actually flat to a little bit down even after all these shutdowns are over. So I was just wondering, I know you talked about sometime in the second half, things loosening. Can you give a little more specifics about what you see happening as your own shutdowns cease in the summer, and sort of what we might expect later in this year?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Yes, look, I can't conjecture about the reason people don't come into the stock. But to the extent they're trying to read the cycle down to the month, I think they -- people do overreact to that. I think our numbers speak for themselves. We've said it will be volatile through the cracker season. And as the crackers come back up, they'll be lots of demand and not as much supplies, that will get tight again. So Q2, Q3 will remain volatile, but we believe by Q4 and beyond, it will go structurally long and stayed there for several years. So you can expect this up and down volatility in the next several months to continue. At the same time, normalized demand recovery environment, which we are seeing in the United States, I don't want to repeat what I said in my commentary and we said in our press release. We are seeing recovery in some really good areas in the U.S., not the least of them being construction, which is a pretty powerful signal. First time we've seen that for several years, and we are seeing it across a range of our different businesses. I think U.S. being a strong economy, being the size it this, will help price increase environment in the resin as well. So you're going to see the double effect of that tighter ethylene based on low-cost ethane, U.S. running hard exports as well as domestic going up and price power in all those [ph] plastics.

Robert Koort - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

If I could follow up. The ethane markets have been talked to death, and I think people are pretty aware of a long position developing until the mega crackers start up again several years out, but can you give us a brief education on the propane markets. I know on your slide you talked about a $4 natural gas price. Does this imply we should see an elevation in propane? Or are we going to see the same sort of excess supply dynamics and switch outs of propane for natural gas heating and keeping those markets long as well?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

We've always said certainly in our calls and in our investor roadshows that one thing people don't read as detailed as they read the ethane is in fact the propane dynamic, which is a governor on the ethane dynamic. In essence, propane going structurally long as U.S. natural gas recalibrates back to some normalized number in the, let's call it $4 range. As ethane calibrates around that based on a premium to natural gas at the $4 range. Propane will be -- it's alternative value is the fuel market, but the fuel market is structurally long based on natural gas and ethane. So what happens is it has to be exported but there's not enough export terminal being built. So as a consequence of that, propane will become a very, very favorable feedstock for flexi-crackers that can take it, which will include ours. So even our U.S. announcement last week, we'll be able to take some propane into that cracker, won't be a pure ethane cracker because of this natural effect. Therefore, we believe propane dehydrogenation and the arbitrage to propylene will be a competitive advantage for many years to come, and there is no natural new sync for propane. Of course, over time, export capacity will be built, and so back to P.J.'s question we'll be able to even export some of it ourselves, but we believe for us, it's 1/3 of U.S. Gulf Coast capability and propane cracking resides with Dow, and we'll be able to use as a natural governor on ethane price if ethane price tends to go high.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Peter Butler at Glen Hill Investments.

Peter Butler

Analyst

I had 2 short questions and a comment. One of the questions is, I think in the history of Dow, I've never sat through a conference call without the word polyethylene being mentioned. Has Howard disappeared, or what's going on?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

So, no, Howard has not disappeared and Performance Plastics, which as you know, is realigned to now have a market orientation. That market orientation, Peter, is recreated in a complete new way because of packaging. And we bought the Rohm and Haas Packaging Adhesives Materials business, combined it with our plastics franchise, our polyethylene franchise and have created an $8 billion packaging unit, which really, today, is technology-driven, market-driven and takes the feedstock advantage as a bonus. In other words, Howard's machine is market-driven. And then the second part of that is Elastomers, which had a bang-up quarter especially into automotive. And the third part of that is Health -- Hygiene and Medical, which goes into everything from diapers to you name it, wound care. And as a consequence of that, what the unit is doing today is what we promised it would to. We've moved away from commodity resin sales, and we've moved into value-add technology, market-driven sales across those 4 buckets. Of course, we still make a lot of resin, but we don't want to -- to use the term, Howard's term, we're not pellet heads. We are market-driven solutions providers.

Peter Butler

Analyst

Second question is earlier in the first quarter, the wag among the Dow folks that I talked to was almost despair about how bad the quarter was going to be, and then you report something that's above first call which implies that March was not just a good quarter but a fantastic quarter, and I'm wondering whether maybe you're are being too conservative if you take margin multiplied by 3, don't you get a pretty nice number for the second quarter?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Yes. So look, January February was always jury out, and we said it in the latter part when we announced the Q4 that Chinese New Year was going to be seminal. The thing that's happened, Peter, is the sales momentum, especially as you just said March, which we saw a plus 20% over year-over-year. That was almost across the board, across every sector and across all geographies, including China. The China rebound was kind of tepid after Chinese New Year in February but started picking up in March. So now if you look going forward, that momentum has continued on into Q2 and with our cost intervention, because Europe is still a bit of a weight, with our cost interventions in Europe in particular but certainly even the big takedown of the plant in Brazil. We feel the U.S. is showing tailwinds and strength, and Asia is good to strong and Latin America is good to strong. So we believe we don't want to be irrationally exuberant, good curtail winds coming out of March.

Peter Butler

Analyst

Okay. The comment, Andrew, is my hat is off to Dow's top management regarding your intention to grow organically without the help of investment bankers who, in my experience, would marry a rabbit to a snake. But I think the more money that goes to the owners while avoiding potential acquisition errors [ph]has got to be a huge new plus for Dow stock and the Dow story.

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Well, it's the focus around -- we, in the last 5 years, we've executed around one of the most major portfolio transformations in Dow's history, probably nothing bigger has been done like this since the '40s and '50s when we got into petrochemicals in the first place. That 5 or 6 years has put us in a great position. We have the portfolio in place to deliver the cash we promised our shareholders and the earnings targets that underpin that, which also means then that we have to continue to execute and deliver shareholder remuneration. That is the single focus here. It's a drumbeat that we have out there for a year. The dividend increase hopefully shows that we're serious, the board is serious and is all about execution from here, Peter. We don't need acquisitions for the reasons I just said.

Operator

Operator

And next we'll go to Vincent Andrews at Morgan Stanley.

Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

Maybe you could talk a little bit more about March. A lot of the companies that have reported so far, March has sort of been this magical month where all of a sudden customers just sort got back to doing business. So maybe in some of your businesses or in important geographies, could you just sort of help us understand the customer conversations and how they changed in March and sort of what was it that went away, was it fear, was it strong underlying demand that was actually improving, or was it rebuilding inventory, or what were the dynamics?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

I think it's a great question. I think it would be fair to say it's all of the above. I mean I'd tell the rebuilding of inventory especially after the very low points of late last year. Now we took actions and moved volume to capture share. Now what's going as we're out there with good operating rates. I mean, let me give you polyurethanes as a good example. Polyurethanes in the United States gained share late last year, has kept share and has now got price increases in place. And so as you go forward, whether it's epoxy or propylene oxide-based polyols, we actually are seeing strength. And it's share plus price, and it all was really started to take traction in March, as people started to rebuild inventories. But then the other amplifier, and we talked about this in the Q4 call. We said the amplifier would be if the market started to take traction again based on confidence. The restocking will be an amplifier and that's indeed what we saw in March. The fact that it all happened in March versus February and March, that's a fairly new dynamic but we're watching this carefully. We track it, if not daily, weekly here and we're seeing the order book is reasonably strong on the March clock, not on the first quarter clock. So the quarter is looking like March, not like the quarter, not like Q1.

Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

And maybe just a quick follow-up on your inventory days at 75 days. Could you just put that in perspective with -- is that, do you consider that normal for now or is it the function of rebuilding your operating rate or how should we think about that trending as we move through the second quarter?

William H. Weideman

Analyst

This is Bill Weiderman. That's actually normal. We normally build inventory in the first quarter in advance of our higher turnaround season, and so it's very much in line, it was very planned in terms of building that inventory level. So as you know, in the first quarter, working capital ends up being a use of funds in Dow and as we move through the year becomes the source of fund. so very much in line with past practice.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Kevin McCarthy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Kevin W. McCarthy - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

A question on your balance sheet and cash flow. If we look at the last year or so, it looks like your net debt over the past 12 months has come down, $865 million, and that's probably within $50 million or so of proceeds that you've gotten from divestitures. Meanwhile, you've obviously had a lot of large capital projects on the Gulf, Middle East, a large recent dividend increase. Should we infer from this that you're reasonably happy with the structure of the balance sheet today, or what should we expect with regard to leverage over the next year or 2?

William H. Weideman

Analyst

This is Bill, again. Well, as you know, we made significant progress deleveraging our balance sheet over the last few years, and we've also got a significant amount of liquidity. Having said that, clearly as we've mentioned and reemphasized our cash priorities. As Andrew mentioned, our priorities will continue to be remunerating shareholders but also continuing to delever. So -- and then also funding growth, and we believe with our projected cash flows, we have the ability to do all 3.

Kevin W. McCarthy - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Then, Andrew, as a follow-up, if I may, on the propane line of discussion. If I look at the April benchmarks for the U.S. Gulf, it looks like the propane crack is within about $0.02 of the ethane-based ethylene margin. Meanwhile, export capacity constraint, it looks like propane is getting longer here. So my question is over the next 6 months or so, do you foresee a scenario where propane gets long enough to catalyze enough feedstock switching to drive ethane into the cost floor? Is that perhaps an upside scenario for you over the next couple of quarters?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Yes. You've just said a much more eloquent job than I did in answering the question, but I think you articulate exactly a scenario that we think will play out.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Frank Mitsch at Wells Fargo Securities.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Andrew, you've given some a very constructive comments on March, I'm wondering where you stand on this pull-forward debate that has gone on in the ag side between Monsanto and Dupont. And also perhaps comment on the favorable weather here in the first quarter. What sort of impact did you see, if any, in terms of a pull-forward from Q2 into Q1 that was either weather-related, related to ag or related to construction?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Yes, so on ag, thanks again, Frank, for giving me a chance to just say that ag had just a blow-out quarter, and I know the others out there did as well. But look, just our sales in our new ag chem products, I mean, 41% versus same quarter last year on the news whether it be SmartStax, pyroxsulam, [indiscernible] but we all did well. The ag fundamentals because of this weather, we believe there might be a $0.01 pull-forward for us. That's about it based in our mix. Why? Because we've been gaining share -- our Seed, Traits and Oils posted outstanding mid double-digit growth in Q1. It's now $1 billion business. This will be a longer season in both ag chem as well as in construction to answer your question.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, great. And thank you for the update on EVOQUE. Can you offer some sort of guidepost in terms of how big can that business get to when it gets to maturity?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

I'm going to probably defer to answer that question to the next earnings call, and the only reason I'm doing that is that we're doing June strategy week, and our Dow Coating Materials business has been in here, and we're very excited by the slide we provided you in this deck, which shows you market penetration. This is potentially a $500 million NPV launch. And the most important part of this is it's gen-1 only and it's near term, and we have the assets pretty much in place. So this is near-term EBITDA not back loaded. And I will give you more on it in the next call if you remember to ask.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our last question from David Begleiter at Deutsche Bank.

David L. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Andrew, just on U.S. ethane prices. I know you have a lag versus published prices. Did we see the full benefits of the very low ethane price in your numbers, or will we see those more in Q2?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

So the turnaround season is a driver to answering your question. As you know, it's currently trading at about $0.50. We expect that will be what you'll see in Q2 but there is a slight lag, one; and two, to the previous question that was asked on volatility, it will go structurally long in Q4. But yes, I mean, it lags slightly and it lags slightly in our numbers mostly because of polyethylene.

David L. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

And just on propylene, Andrew, what was the headwind from the propylene price increases you saw on Q1 versus your own selling price increases and will that reverse, do you think, or will price increases catch up with propylene in Q2?

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Yes, they will catch up in Q2. And it's just simple, the dynamic around the quarter that people have asked about which is January and February were slow and so traction was hard. But as the market came back with the strong tailwind in March as we've already answered, their price increases started to go through and you'll see much more of that in the whole quarter versus the month.

Doug May

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much. Andrew, do you want to make a few comments to close.

Andrew N. Liveris

Analyst

Yes. Look, I'm loath to use sporting analogies because some of you have used them for headlines but look, this was straight down the fairway tee shot, the quarter. Middle of the fairway, not above a Watson shot, although he did pretty well. This was right down the middle of fairway, green in sight. And as far as Dow AgroScience is concerned, they actually got on the green in one. And so we have work to do in the volatile economy, but we have tailwinds and we have strength. Where? I've mentioned AgroScience. I also said that we're seeing positive indicators of construction, transportation and electronics, and we're also seeing a stronger U.S., and with good tailwinds and Dow's great position in the United States enhanced by the feedstocks that we've talked about and the technology launches we've talked about whether they be in AgroSciences or whether they be EVOQUE. So there's a momentum going on, and the momentum will ensure that we keep delivering our quarters and our cash flow and our shareholder remuneration as Peter Butler said, this is a different Dow. We are very focused on execution in the current portfolio, so we can delever, but as critically important to us, show to all of you why your patience in us is justified. This is a company that's executing and will continue to execute. We look forward to talking to you on the next call.

Doug May

Analyst

Thank you, Andrew, and thank you, everyone, for your questions and for joining us this morning. We do appreciate your interest in The Dow Chemical Company. For your reference, a copy of our prepared comments will be posted on Dow's website later today. This concludes our call, and we look forward to speaking to you again soon. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude today's conference. Again, thank you for your participation.