Operator
Operator
Welcome to the DuPont First Quarter 2011 Earnings Call. My name is John, and I'll be your operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Ms. Karen Fletcher. Karen, you may begin.
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD)
Q1 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 21, 2011
$45.29
-2.98%
Same-Day
-0.34%
1 Week
+3.83%
1 Month
-10.17%
vs S&P
-8.80%
Operator
Operator
Welcome to the DuPont First Quarter 2011 Earnings Call. My name is John, and I'll be your operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Ms. Karen Fletcher. Karen, you may begin.
Karen Fletcher
Analyst
Thank you, John. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. With me this morning are Ellen Kullman, Chair and CEO; Nick Fanandakis, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jim Borel, Executive Vice President. [Technical Difficulty] All right. Thank you. Sorry, we had technical problems in this room. I'm going to start from the beginning, and I'd like to welcome everybody and apologize for our delay. With me this morning are Ellen Kullman, Chair and CEO; Nick Fanandakis, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jim Borel, Executive Vice President. The slides for today's call can be found on our website at dupont.com, along with the news release that was issued earlier today. During the course of this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements. And I direct you to Slide 1 for our disclaimers. All statements that address expectations for projections about the future are forward-looking statements. Although they reflect our current expectations, these statements are not guarantees of future performance but involve a number of risks and assumptions. We urge you to review DuPont's SEC filings for a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the reconciliations to GAAP statements provided with our earnings news release and on our website. And finally, we have posted supplemental information on our website that we hope is helpful to your understanding of our company's performance. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Ellen.
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
All right. Thank you, Karen, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report very strong results in the first quarter. They reflect disciplined execution across our businesses. And since we reorganized the company 18 months ago, we have consistently focused on market-driven innovation, differential allocation of resources and productivity, and this focus continues to pay off. Each reporting segment contributed to our robust performance this quarter. And as a result, we are raising our full year's earnings guidance. Sales were up 18% with double-digit increases in every reporting segment and in every region. The largest volume gains were in our growth segment, Safety & Protection , Ag & Nutrition, Electronics & Communications. Success on the top line is directly connected to DuPont's innovation that our customers want, and I'd like to share a couple of examples of how our businesses are driving growth and differentiation through new products. The first example comes from Safety & Protection. We work closely with law enforcement and military to address their needs for protection, and we took our groundbreaking Kevlar XP technology that was already commercial for law enforcement vests, and we extended its unique construction of Kevlar fibers for Hard Armor application. This new material enables weight savings up to 20%, while maintaining essential ballistic protection, a significant benefit for the soldiers and the officers who risk their lives every day. Most importantly, this innovation allows lighter, thinner helmets than ever before and is designed to work in helmet manufacturer's existing equipment. Kevlar XP for Hard Armor is also going to benefit from the new capabilities and supply from DuPont's Kevlar facility expansion in Cooper River, South Carolina, which is on track to start up at the end of this year. A second example is from Performance Polymer. Last spring, Diane Gulyas announced…
Nicholas Fanandakis
Analyst
Thank you, Ellen. And good morning, everyone. I'm delighted to report that in the first quarter, DuPont delivered yet another strong quarter and we're off to a great start for the year. This quarter's performance continues to build on the strong foundation we've laid over the past 2 years. You can see that the momentum from the previous two years is continuing into 2011. Now I'd like to review the details of the quarter, pointing out our accomplishments versus goals. And we'll start with Slide 2, which is the summary of earnings per share and sales results. Earnings per share on both a reported and an underlying basis was $1.52 compared to $1.24 in the prior year. Consolidated net sales of $10 billion were up 18% versus the prior year comprised of 9% volume gains, 8% positive local price increase and 1% benefit from portfolio changes. Volume was up in all segments and in all regions of the world. Local currency prices were also up in all regions, reflecting our continued strong pricing discipline. Let's now turn to the corporate view of the first quarter, looking at earnings per share analysis on Slide 3. Starting with price and variable costs, the quarter showed a net benefit of $0.27 per share. This reflects the difference between price and variable costs, excluding the impact of currency and volume. Driven by our innovation and pricing discipline, we continue to be very proactive implementing price increases in the face of anticipating increases in variable costs. Excluding volume, currency and portfolio impacts, first quarter raw material energy and freight costs were up 8% versus last year's first quarter. For the full year, we now anticipate an increase of about 10% to 12% over 2010. This is up from our initial guidance in January of about…
James Borel
Analyst
Thanks, Nick. Ag & Nutrition is off to a strong start for what we expect is going to be another year of growth across our businesses. On Slide 7, you'll see sales grew 18% to $3.8 billion, and earnings grew 21% to $1.1 billion. Our teams delivered volume growth in Seeds and Crop Protection products, good net price realization in Seeds, as well as good execution and integration of our PROaccess strategy. Earnings growth were underpinned by increased sales, which more than offset increased cost. Starting with Seed sales. First quarter reached $2.6 billion, an increase of 19% with 10% higher volumes, 6% U.S. dollar price gains and 3% impact from portfolio changes. While each region posted solid sales growth, 2/3 of the results reflected strong performance in North America and an early strong start in Europe. Specifically in North America, sales increased moderately as we continue to relentlessly execute our Right Product, Right Acre strategy. The growth represented net price gains underpinned by new product introductions as well as volume growth on top of a strong start to the season in the fourth quarter of 2010. There are numerous North American successes unfolding in the 2011 selling season. A few examples included the successful integration of 5 PROaccess partners, the fast penetration of P series corn hybrids to about 40% of our lineup and the continued strength of Pioneer brand soybeans. But perhaps the most exciting is the traction of the industry's first integrated and reduced refuge product for belowground insects, Optimum AcreMax 1. The product, which is initially targeted for northern Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakotas will be on more than 3 million acres this summer, and this is simply a phenomenal product launch. Growers saw it in demonstration plots in 2010, and they're planning it…
Karen Fletcher
Analyst
Okay. Thanks, Jim. Now let's turn to Slide 8 and Electronics & Communications. Sales of $811 million improved 29% compared to the same period last year with 9% volume improvement and 20% higher prices, primarily metal pass-through pricing. Pretax earnings of $111 million are $6 million higher than the same period last year. Strong performance was led by Asia Pacific with 26% volume growth, photovoltaic sales were up substantially and strong demand for smartphones and tablet PCs also contributed. The business continues its investment in capacity expansions and new products with a focus on innovation for the PV market. For the second quarter, Electronics & Communications sales are expected to be substantially above prior year, driven by the anticipated impact from metal price pass-through and demand in PV and consumer electronic with earnings up slightly, reflecting potential Japan impact. We continue to anticipate significant market growth for photovoltaics for the full year. Moving on to Slide 9 and Performance Chemicals. $1.8 billion in sales was a year-over-year improvement of 27% with a 21% increase in price and 6% on volume. Pretax earnings of $394 million were $204 million greater than the same period last year with PTOI margins climbing to 22%. Robust global demand across TiO2, refrigerants and fluoropolymers gave lift to this segment, and all regions demonstrated growth rates above 20%. While TiO2 gets much of the attention these days, let me emphasize that our Chemicals and Fluoroproducts business also performed impressively. Our Teflon fluoroproducts demonstrated nice growth going into many industrial applications like cabling and coating. Additionally, our industry-leading refrigerant, ISCEON and Suva, were in high demand as we ramp up for the summer. I'd like to recognize our operations team in Performance Chemicals this quarter, several of our businesses are experiencing "high sales to capacity" ratios and…
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
Great. Thank you, Karen. And before I close, I want to address the Danisco transaction. All regulatory conditions have been met to complete our tender offer, and we've made up our position clear. Our offer is full, fair and firm. Danisco shareholders have a choice to make between the certainty of our offer or the risk of the deal going away, and that offer period is scheduled to end on April 29. You know, I want to recap my key message points. First, DuPont is executing well. We have very clear strategies and plans for each business and strive to constantly raise the bar and outperform our competitors. On Slide 13, you can see an abbreviated version of the 2011 directives that I use with employees to drive focus, to drive performance and to drive accountability. We also have business-specific commitments that are aligned with these directives and are externally benchmarks for each business in the major markets they serve. We have a disciplined managing process to evaluate progress against these targets, to evaluate new opportunities as well as contingency plans. We have the discipline and flexibility to respond to dynamic conditions and unforeseen events such as the tragedy in Japan. Second, we remain focused on our customers and our markets. Our relationships and important market insights translate into a number of triple work processes. They range from new product development to customer service to supply chain decision. Our customer focus and organization structure also enables us to respond quickly to opportunities, and it's why we're able to deliver 18% sales growth and 23% earnings per share growth in the quarter. A very strong start to the year gives us increased confidence in raising our earnings outlook to the range of $3.65 to $3.85 per share and obviously this excludes any impact from the planned acquisition of Danisco. Finally, you heard Nick discuss the various headwinds and tailwinds that lie ahead, and I want to leave you with this: in a dynamic and in times uncertain environment, you can kind on DuPont. My leadership team understands the levers we can pull to respond to the challenges we face and whether they're unmet needs of a customer or servicing in a tight market, participating Japan's recovery or countering a competitive threat, I believe we demonstrated as much over the past 2 years. We're very proud of the track record of executing well, and we are committed to building on it. So with that, we are now very happy to take your questions.
Karen Fletcher
Analyst
So John, let's open up the line.
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] And we have a question from Don Carson from Susquehanna.
Donald Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP
Analyst
Yes, thank you. Nick, have a question on volume growth, the potential for continued operating leverage. If you look at Slide 16, it shows DuPont sales volumes are back up to the pre-recession 2008 levels. I'm just wondering if you take Electronics out, where are the rest of the businesses? Are they back up to their 2008 levels? And what sort of volume growth prospects do you see going forward?
Nicholas Fanandakis
Analyst
So some of the businesses are back to the 2008 levels or exceeding 2008 levels. And then, there's a couple of areas where there's still opportunity for continued growth. DPC is certainly not at the 2008 levels because we haven't seen the recovery in the automotive market, although its been there not at the levels that it was back prerecession. S&P, because it entered into the cycle late and is still mid-cycle, pulling out of that. They haven't reached the pre-recessionary levels as well. But many areas of the corporation have. Ag & Nutrition obviously never really experienced that dip, and they've continued to show that steady growth. And then Performance Chemicals, they're well above the pre-recessionary levels.
Donald Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP
Analyst
Okay. And then on Performance Chemicals, are you running flat out in TiO2? I'm just wondering what opportunities you have to increase volumes there with de-bottlenecking? Or is all the growth going to be price related?
James Borel
Analyst
The business is extremely tight as the industry is extremely tight. When you look at the high-quality TiO2, it's a tight industry and market altogether. But what we've done and continue to do is drive DuPont Production Systems. We continue to look for re-mounts [ph] of our facilities by utilizing DuPont Production Systems methodology, and that's allowed us to maintain our ability to keep up with customers' demands. But even with that, Don, the market remains very tight.
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
Don, to put some context to it, if you think of the last five years, through DPS and all of the [indiscernible], we've liberated over 100,000 tons of TiO2 from our current production facility. And so that's the kind of impact that DPS has had on that business. It enabled them to really meet customer needs.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.
P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Inc
Analyst
I have a quick question on Ag. You talked about Seed prices going up, but it looks like Crop Protection chemical prices are down. Now in Seeds, there is inflation in manufacturing of Seeds, and that will be reflected in your payments to the contract growth. So with all that, what's your pricing strategy for next year to offset that inflation?
James Borel
Analyst
Thanks, P.J. On the Seed side, as you know, first of all, on the cost of goods question that you mentioned, a couple of things that we do there. One, I think you're aware that we use a hedging strategy as part of the price setting to help us manage margins and also continue it separate like we have across the rest of the company around productivity improvement, around cost of goods. So those two things are helping us mitigate the impact. And the other thing always to remember on the Seed side is it's a high science business, not a commodity business. And so pricing decisions really are primary driven by the value we're delivering to growers and we're continuing to bring additional value to growers, will are giving us pricing opportunities in what we expect to be in excess of cost increases.
P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Inc
Analyst
And just following up on Seeds, you said AcreMax 1, the uptick was good. I guess you planted 3 million acres. Your competitor is also introducing new reap products. Do you see a big shift in grower preferences to what is reap products and what does that mean for market share? Thank you.
James Borel
Analyst
Yes. Thanks, P.J. As you know, we're pioneering the idea of refuge-in-a-bag. We had a pretty broad exposure with belowground insect control last year, and that's one of the reasons why AcreMax 1 has taken off so strongly this year. And we're going to have a couple of more products added to that lineup next year. So first of all, we started with belowground insect control. That's the toughest one for farmers to manage. The refuge has to be in the same field, it has significant yield impacts, et cetera. And so with AcreMax 1 dealing with belowground insect control, that's been very, very popular. But next year, we're expecting to have integrated reduced aboveground and integrated and reduced above and below. So we think it's going to be a significant opportunity for -- extra value for farmers and growth for us. We feel very good about our position and our momentum in that space.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank AG
Analyst
Ellen, on TiO2 pricing, what's you're thinking about how high can prices go? Are we in a period of 20%-plus pricing for the next couple of years? And how are you thinking about demand destruction [ph] at these higher levels?
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
TiO2 market is a classic commodity chemical that price and those ups and down and I ran that business in the middle '90s and experienced both sides of that cycle. And so if you take a look at where prices today certainly is unprecedented, but at the same time the inputs are much higher than they were before or prices today versus a decade ago and things like that. So the economics there are pretty constant. If you're on a constant dollar basis, we're not back yet to the 80s [ph] in terms of pricing. So it's a hard market to predict because there's a lot of things that come into play, but capacity utilization is the major one. And companies are trying to de-bottleneck. We're certainly well on our way to analyze our needs there over the next few years. But it's a dynamic situation, which I personally experienced which is one then that helps me not predict straight lines in that industry because it's an industry that does -- that can turn on you.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank AG
Analyst
And Ellen, feedstock-wise, what are your prices up year-over-year? And are you having trouble; getting any feedstocks?
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
Well, the beauty of our production capability is that we can utilize a very wide range of feedstocks from the very low end to the very high end. So we have an ability to move into market to where there are feedstocks and really get what we need and obviously considering our scale at a great economy. So that capability really positions us well in any kind of core market, and I think that's one of the key differentiators for us.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan. Jeffrey Zekauskas - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Your shares outstanding were up about 30 million shares year-over-year. Do you have a philosophy in terms of whether -- do you have a philosophy in terms of whether your share creep should be controlled or whether it shouldn't be controlled?
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
Nick?
Nicholas Fanandakis
Analyst
Jeff, this is Nick. Thanks for your question. Jeff, we do have a philosophy on that. I mean when we look at the shares that results in outstanding shares relating to the compensation program, our position is we really don't want to see that result in a dilution effect on the earnings basis. But it's not a 1-for-1 type thing, Joe. It's not something that every share that's issued right away is repurchased. When you look over time at the shares in this category and you look over, let's say, a 10-year period, we've actually issued and repurchased just about essentially the same number of shares. So we're right in that line of compensating for any shares that are issued there. But the long term, certainly our position is to maintain that impact of having no impact from the shares issued with the compensation program. Jeffrey Zekauskas - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Well, then if I can follow up, so that's your philosophy over a 10-year period. What might be your philosophy about controlling share creep over a 1- or a 2-year period?
Nicholas Fanandakis
Analyst
Yes, and again we bought back 5 million shares in the first quarter this year. We bought back 5 million shares last year as well. So obviously, we have activity to address that creep that occurs, and we're acting on that through some of the shares we repurchased. It's just not a 1-for-1 sort of exchange in the exact period.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies. Laurence Alexander - Jefferies & Company, Inc.: First a question on Seeds and traits. I guess could you address directly the trends that you're seeing in Roundup 1 soy pricing, and how you expect that to play out over the next couple of years as generic product comes available?
James Borel
Analyst
Yes, thanks. First of all, I don't really see a pricing segmentation based on an individual trait. We're using Roundup Ready 1 trait in our soybeans, but the value that we're delivering with things like Y series and the disease package it brings, that's -- we're creating value there. We're seeing net price increases as we continue to bring improved performance and value to customers. So you asked about the post-patent period, that's a few years away. So it's maybe a little early to predict precisely what will happen there. But clearly, from our point of view, it's a combination of proprietary traits that we will have, other intellectual property, a continued drive on adding value every year to performance, other services. There's a whole family of things in our relationship with growers that are delivering value, and we expect to continue doing that and we think farmers will respond to that. Laurence Alexander - Jefferies & Company, Inc.: And I guess just more broadly a question on the different segments. To what extent are each of the segments individually implementing pricing ahead of raw materials? I mean can you characterize which ones are lagging, which ones are keeping up first thing ahead of raw materials?
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
Sure. If you think about it, the segments are very different from each other, but the common element of it is that our pricing philosophy is around pricing for value to the customer. And so from that standpoint again if you see we had made great progress across the board. Electronics is an area where with the pass-through nature of the metal that you see maybe a margin decline there, but the vast majority of that is based on the metals pass-through. Chemicals is clearly ahead. Performance Polymers is clearly ahead. And in Ag again it's value placed, so it's something that if we continue to innovate, I think we'll be able to stay ahead of that curve.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Kevin McCarthy
Analyst
Jim, in the Ag segment, it sounds like there could be some timing issues. If we consider those in the aggregate, do you see also if there was any profit pulled forward from the second quarter? And if so how much?
James Borel
Analyst
Yes, and I think I mentioned it, but I'd estimate maybe in the range of $100 million of sales but probably $0.04 to $0.05 of earnings per share that were moved. Of course, we'll know more completely with how the second quarter develops. But that's our best estimate right now.
Kevin McCarthy
Analyst
Okay, great. And then Nick, on TiO2, any milepost on your brownfield expansion plans there in terms of site location?
Nicholas Fanandakis
Analyst
No, we continue to look at that obviously. The demand is very high and the estacy is very tight. So we recognize the need here, continuing to drive remounts of the facility, but we haven't come out yet with the stated location of a brownfield site as to where it would be.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Edward Yang from Oppenheimer. Edward Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.: Nick, you mentioned that Performance Coating and Safety & Protection are two areas where you had some slack. But outside of those areas, and TiO2's certainly one of them, are there any other business where you're essentially sold out?
Nicholas Fanandakis
Analyst
Yes. When I was answering that question, Ed, I was talking about how it related to prerecessionary time period. It wasn't necessarily saying that every area were sold out except for those two. So I was just trying to point out that those areas are back to or exceeding the prerecessionary levels. I think you're right in your characterization, Ed, that the TiO2 is certainly a tight area. And I would say the other one is probably Fluorochem is a tight area right now for us as well. Edward Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.: And then maybe a question for Ellen on the pricing environment. You're enjoying very strong price momentum now. If you were to qualitatively judge it, are you more confident in your pricing power today than you were three months ago? And how would you put this into context of the current environment in terms of pricing power versus your history of decline?
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
I kind of hesitate when I hear the word pricing power because I think people think about that in a certain way. It's just leverage that you have. Our pricing power doesn't come from leverage. It comes from innovation. It comes from incremental improvements in products, new Solamet paste at electronics with higher efficiency, the examples that we gave in Ag and in Safety and in other areas. And so to the extent that we continue -- and that's why that metric around the number of new products and the percent of our revenue that comes from new products is very important for us because to me, that's an indicator of the strength of our connection to the customer and the strength of our ability to continue to have higher value for our customer and has moved that price line. So that is the goal. That is what we focus on constantly. And I think that some of the momentum that we've seen with the introductions we had last year in terms of -- across most of the businesses that has very, very strong innovations years last year, and we're seeing a result of that in our volumes this year and our price this year.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Mark Gulley from Soleil Securities.
Mark Gulley - Soleil Securities Group, Inc.
Analyst
Jim, I had a question regarding rib products for '12. I don't think it's a question of semantics. You did not mention AcreMax 2 specifically, only you did mention other items in the lineup. So where do you stand with respect to your anticipated approval of AcreMax 2 going forward?
James Borel
Analyst
Yes, probably a little confusing, Mark, in terms of names. In the early days, we were talking about AcreMax 1 and 2. We've actually changed the names. So the AcreMax XTRA is going to be the above- and belowground integrated reduced refuge, and I think that's the one that you might have originally thought about as AcreMax 2, and that's on track. As I'd mentioned, we're expecting registration later this year and launch in '12. And then of course, this plain AcreMax will be the aboveground. That's also on track for integrated reduced and launch next year.
Mark Gulley - Soleil Securities Group, Inc.
Analyst
So it was semantics. Second question has to do with how to think about price and mix overall in the Seeds business for '12. With the strong tailwind from crop prices and of course your need to pass on cost of good sales increases, do you think you can get real price increases in '12 that is over and above inflation?
James Borel
Analyst
The answer would be yes. It's a little early to say particularly because we haven't finished this season, let alone set prices for next year. But I base that on a couple of things, Mark. Key is what we see coming through the pipeline of increased performance in hybrids plus the couple of new products plus further expansion of AcreMax 1, I think all the different elements of bringing additional value to farmers is really what gives us the opportunity to capture more in terms of price because we're delivering value to farmers. We feel very good about what's coming through the pipeline.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer from Barclays Capital.
Duffy Fischer - ClearBridge Advisors
Analyst
A question on some of the feedstocks, especially the U.S. based with the shale gas coming through. Can you talk a little bit about your leverage between, say, the propylene and the ethylene molecule, how you're set up there, how you're taking advantage of kind of this windfall that we're seeing now? Your competitors up in the midland they announced a new cracker in the U.S.? Can you guys go more upstream or does that seem more attractive for you to lock in some of this advantage?
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
So obviously, raw materials are on the move led by oil. And as you know, we're very natural gas-based in the U.S. on the Gulf Coast. Our sourcing and our people are heavily involved in making those decisions on a day-in and day-out basis. And we're positioning ourselves to really try to create the most we can do. But we're not -- we're only involved in it to a very minor extent that we just purchased some of this and inputs to the value-added products we make. So we don't play in that end of the chemical arena and so we're dealing with it just to try to get the lowest-cost raw materials we can to be able to compete effectively in the marketplace.
Duffy Fischer - ClearBridge Advisors
Analyst
And so when you think of the two molecules competing -- because obviously you use propylene derivatives. You use propylene derivatives. Where do you see the most substitution happening now that the ethylene molecule, on a relative basis, is so much more attractive to propylene molecules?
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
Yes, I have to talking to my ops guys and sourcing manager. I rely on them to make those trade-offs so that we get the most cost-effective inputs into the chain.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch from BB&T Capital Markets. Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets: I'll stay away from the Olefins. Jim, based on the expected acres of corn planted in 2011, do you expect your market share to go up, stay the same or go down?
James Borel
Analyst
Based on the expectations, we would expect the market share increases, particularly on the PROaccess side. But overall, on the Seeds side -- I don't know if you were just focus on Seed, but Crop Protection growth as well as we expect to grow a little bit more than the market. Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets: All right. Terrific. And Ellen, obviously DuPont had a stellar first quarter beating consensus by $0.15 maybe $0.04 with the pull forward from the second quarter, but your guidance for the full year increases by a bit similar $0.15. Are you being conservative here? Or are there potential headwinds that you see out there that are giving you a little bit more cause for concern as you progress through 2011?
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
No. So obviously, we have to kind of call it where we see it and what's going on today. Nick talked about the headwinds of Japan and share dilution and rising raws. And so -- no, I think that in the tailwinds are the kinds of where we are from a business standpoint and currency a little bit and things like that. So I think that's why we pegged the range and we narrowed the range and took up the bottom end a little bit more and really tried to put it in there, and so that shows we've got some increased confidence by narrowing that range and the headwinds and tailwinds to adjust as we discussed.
Operator
Operator
Our last question comes from Mark Connelly from CLSA. Mark Connelly - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc.: And I'm sorry to ask you about TiO2 again, but it's my understanding that you guys are working to re-up your fixed price contracts although they're not up yet. My question is how likely is it that we can maintain the high margins we've got now when those contracts do roll over? And second, how much of your tonnage are you taking out of Florida and how sustainable is that? I've lost track of your reserves down there.
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
As have I. So we continue to drive Florida and -- but that's like 10% of our total ore consumption. But it's nice to have and we're advantaged there and so that's a good thing that we'll play that out until that line is exhausted. The ore industry is moving. Our ability to utilize a wide range of ores gives us a little bit more maneuvering capability than others in the industry that are just focused on high-grade ores and the like. And so I think it's all a relative issue. It's relative to our competitors in that industry, and I think that we're advantaged with our manufacturing process that will enable us to, whatever the situation is, be able to handle it very, very efficiently.
Mark Connelly - Credit Suisse
Analyst
A quick follow-up on cellulosic. We know that M&G now is saying 13 million gallons by the end of 2012. How does that compare against your project?
Ellen Kullman
Analyst
13 million gallons by the end of 2012?
Nicholas Fanandakis
Analyst
Well, I think when you look at our cellulosic ethanol, we have our facility in Tennessee, and it's about 250,000, I believe, is the number there. It's been running now for well over a year. We continue to gather the data there, and we're looking really to move forward with a commercial plan. We've already identified that it will be located in Iowa. We haven't announced the specific site yet, and you can expect to see commercial feedstocks and construction there in that 2012 time period. On the biobutanol side, the alternative fuel that we've been driving, it's meeting all of its milestones. The facility is up and running in the U.K., and it's about 1 year later than the cellulosic ethanol timeline.
Karen Fletcher
Analyst
So with that, I'll see we're out of time. I'd like to thank everybody for joining us on the call. I know you have a busy day and the folks in Investor Relations are happy to work with you today and next week on your questions.
Operator
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.