Nicholas Fanandakis
Analyst · Soleil Securities
Thank you, Ellen, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report that in the third quarter, DuPont continued to deliver very strong results. As the global economy recovers, we drove volume and price up in all regions of the world. This quarter's performance continues to build on the strong foundation we have laid since recovery began. 2010 has been and will continue to be a typical year for the company, as we replaced Pharmaceutical royalties with profitable growth from all other business units. By any measure, the third quarter was strong with every business and region contributing to the success in the quarter. Now I'd like to review the details of the quarter, pointing out some of the accomplishments versus goals. And we'll start with Slide 3, which is a summary of earnings per share and sales results. Earnings per share were $0.40 compared to $0.45 in the prior year. However, it's important to note that when you exclude Pharmaceuticals, underlying segment pretax earnings were up 33%. Consolidated net sales of $7 billion were up 17% versus the prior year, comprised of 14% volume gains, 5% positive local price, 1% negative currency impact and 1% reduction from portfolio changes. Volume was up in all business segments and in all regions of the world. Local currency prices were also up in all regions, reflecting our continued strong pricing discipline. Let's turn to the segment reviews and begin with Ag & Nutrition on Slide 4. You see third quarter sales grew 2% to $1.3 billion, as Latin America and Asia-Pacific increases were somewhat muted by the impact of Crop Protection-divested businesses. This seasonal pretax earnings loss of $181 million reflects increased sales offset by growth investment and divested businesses impact. Year-to-date, Ag & Nutrition segment delivered sales growth of 9% and improved earnings by 15%. Focusing on individual businesses and starting with Crop Protection, industry estimates suggest a turn in the environment with third quarter market volume slightly up. Our sales were flat as increased demand for Rynaxypyr insecticide and picoxystrobin fungicides were offset by portfolio changes and to a lesser extent, slightly lower prices. Excluding the business sale, revenues were up modestly due to the growth in our new products. From a regional perspective, volume gains were broad-based, but Asia-Pacific stood out with 14% volume growth. We held price firm in all regions, with the exception of Latin America where prices were down, reflecting generic competition, particularly in the area of fungicides. During the third quarter, we received EPA registration for a number of new products containing our next-generation active ingredient, which is focused on land management weed control. Commensurate with hitting important milestones such as achieving regulatory approvals, we made strategic investments in the quarter supporting future growth opportunities. Moving to Nutrition & Health. Sales were up slightly and earnings down substantially. The business experienced slower-than-expected growth in higher end protein business. The business is making progress in productivity and breaking into new higher value end use markets, which is the cornerstone to our long-term growth plans. Finally, moving to the Seed business, sales were $496 million, up 5%, underpinned by 3% U.S. dollar price gains and 2% volume growth. First, I'll lay out Latin America industry backdrop for the 2010, 2011 planting season, which plays out in the third and fourth quarter. Industry expectations are for a late start to the soybean season, a market where we have a fast growing presence. In corn, expectations are for Brazil to decrease their summer corn hectares. Backed by leading sales force and solid product line up, we are confident in our expectation to grow sales with continued Bt corn technology penetration in share gain in our second brands with the growth weighted to the fourth quarter. Year-to-date, seed sales of $4.8 billion improved 13% and was matched with significant earnings growth. Top line growth primarily reflects the success in North America underpinned by higher mix of value-added products and share gains in corn, soybeans and canola. During quarter three, USDA firm their 2010 acreage estimate by crop, and we finalized all transactions for the season, allowing us to update our share estimates. Our North American corn share is 35%, gaining about three points over 2009 and our North American soybean share is 31%, gaining about five points over 2009. Share data is not yet final, and it won't be until the last USDA 2010 acreage update in January, but we expect these numbers to remain very solid. It's been a phenomenal year. And most importantly, we're excited about our growers and what they're seeing during the harvest, which is now about 80% complete. They're seeing consistent high yielding product performance and very strong results from our new hybrids we introduced in 2010. Significant number of growers also see AcreMax 1 demonstration plus and they're, too, they're seeing the performance is meeting grower expectations giving us confidence with the success of our 1 million unit commercial launch in 2011. Bringing this altogether with the solid performance year-to-date and consistent value proposition, we had furthered our relationship with our growers, creating an even stronger position for which to launch our 2011 season. Underpinning our success is a multi-year investment strategy underway since about 2007 focused on breathing, biotechnology, sales force training, agronomic and technical support, local distribution and other critical functions. For example, we expect R&D to be up one percentage point of sales. All of these investments support our ability to be the leader in this attractive market over the long term. Looking now to the full year segment outlook. We anticipate high single digits sales growth and low to mid-teens earnings growth. This is underpinned by the following fourth quarter expectations: Crop Protection volume gains with the continued soft price environment; European feed sales favoring first quarter versus fourth quarter; North American early start to the seed season; growth from technology penetration in Brazil summer season, as well as growth in the early stages of the Sabrina [ph] season. Now let's turn to Slide 5 in Electronics & Communications segment. Sales of $703 million improved 30% compared to the same period last year, with 24% volume improvement and 6% higher prices, primarily representing metals pass-through. Pretax earnings of $126 million are $49 million better than the same period last year. This is due to broad-based demand increases in all products in all regions, showing double-digit sales growth led by Asia at 38%. Photovoltaic sales continue very strong, growing more than 80%, while non-photovoltaic sales grew 12%. With strong revenue and improved productivity, margins in this business exceeded pre-recessionary levels. For the fourth quarter, excluding PV, we see a normal seasonal decline in demand. Sales are expected to be significantly above prior year. The business continues to make productivity and supply chain improvements, as well as investments to reduce capacity constraints in the face of strong global demand. This includes a planned partial shutdown of facility sometime in the fourth quarter to support a previously announced capacity expansion. On Slide 6, the Performance Chemicals segment reported sales of $1.7 billion, an increase of 26% based on 15% volume, 12% price and 1% reduction due to portfolio change. Sales growth was broad-based across the globe, with double-digit increases in all regions led by Asia-Pacific and North America. Titanium dioxide for polymers and industrial chemicals drove much of the increase in revenue. PTOI was $292 million, an increase of $85 million or 41%, with volume and price contributing about equally to these results. Moving to the outlook for the fourth quarter. Sales are expected to be up moderately year-over-year. Markets continue to be tight with demand exceeding supply from many product lines, including titanium dioxide. Raw material costs, which continue to trend upwards will look to be offset with price increases. We will also continue to drive Dupont's Production Systems to increase production rates in debottlenecking in order to maximize our ability to serve our customers. Now let's turn to Slide 7 in Performance Coatings. Segment sales of $937 million increased 6%. Sales increased as a result of 5% stronger volumes and 1% pricing gains. Demand was driven by strong rebound in the heavy-duty truck markets in North America and Europe and continued recovery in the global automotive market. PTOI was $64 million, up $6 million and this improvement was primarily led by the increased volume. For the full year, we now expect global auto builds to be about 20% up, which is an increase from our prior estimate of 17% and in line with the stronger volumes we have seen year-to-date. Builds were up about 8% in the third quarter. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter for Performance Coatings, we expect sales to be down modestly year-over-year, driven mostly by a stronger U.S. dollar versus prior year. The rate of improvement in global auto builds will turn 1% negative after strong growth year-to-date. With its focus on productivity, this business has made margin improvements and we continue to expect Performance Coatings to be near pre-recessionary margin levels despite the significantly lower volume. Turning now to Performance Materials on Slide 8. This segment delivered sales of $1.6 billion and growth of 21%, driven by 19% volume and 4% price. Automotive, electronics and packaging grow strong volume recovery with all regions showing double-digit growth. PTOI was $281 million, an improvement of $51 million or 22% enabled by volume and price improvement along with continued productivity. The improvement over prior year includes the absence of a $24 million benefit from insurance recovery proceeds, which was received in the third quarter of 2009. As we look to the fourth quarter here, year-over-year auto builds look to be slightly down while some restocking is continuing to take place. Overall, we expect continued year-over-year improvement in revenue and earnings, but with some sequential softening. Raw material costs appear to be stabilizing, although higher on a year-on-year basis. We also intend to take a number of scheduled plant maintenance shutdowns this quarter, which we postponed from earlier this year when demand was at its greatest. On Slide 9, you see the Safety & Protection segment. Sales here jumped an impressive 30% to reach $871 million for the quarter, due to the higher volumes of aramid and non-woven products in a recovering marketplace. We saw demand strengthening in industrial, public sector and automotive markets with all regions achieving greater than 20% volume growth. PTOI was $134 million, an improvement of $76 million from higher volumes and the absence of a $26 million asset impairment charge that was recorded in the prior year. PTOI margin improved as well on these strong volumes. Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect the overall pace of recovery to slow and the comps to get much tougher, although we see continued favorable demand in the industrial markets. Sales should be up significantly year-over-year and we also expect upward pressure in raw material costs. Now let's turn to a corporate view of the third quarter, looking at earnings per share variance analysis on Slide 10. Starting with price and variable costs, the quarter showed a net zero impact. This reflects the difference between price and variable costs, excluding the impact of currency and volume. Driven by our innovation and pricing discipline, we've been very proactive over the past year in implementing price increases in the face of anticipated increases in our variable costs and on a year-to-date basis, this spread is a positive $0.39 per share. Excluding volume, currency and portfolio impacts, third quarter raw material, energy and freight costs were up versus last year's third quarter when many raw materials had reached their low point. We are now estimating these costs will also be up moderately in the fourth quarter, with expectations for a full year increase of 5% to 6% over 2009. This is greater than our previous estimate of about 3% driven by higher-than-expected price increases for many of our key raw materials and increased freight cost, along with more rapid recognition in the costing, partially attributed to the improved working capital productivity. Volume improvement resulted in incremental earnings benefit of $0.31 per share compared to the same period previous year. As I mentioned earlier, this benefit is broadly based across all businesses and all regions, and was particularly strong in Asia-Pacific, which was up 23%. There's a graph depicting sales by geographic region shown on Slide 11. Continuing with the variance analysis, let's move to fixed cost. Excluding currency volume and portfolio impacts, fixed cost reduced earnings by $0.18 per share versus last year. This includes an $0.08 incremental non-cash pension charge, along with actions in the third quarter to support growth such as increased investments in our R&D and specific marketing initiatives. On a year-to-date basis, our fixed costs are 40% of sales. I expect this to be about 41% at the full year basis versus 46% last year, well on our way to beating our commitment in fixed cost being 39% of sales in 2012. Concurrent with actions taken to support growth, we estimate that DuPont has realized more than $500 million year-to-date due to our fixed cost reduction programs, including restructuring benefits. This puts us well on track towards our commitment to deliver a combined $600 million, including $400 million of fixed cost productivity and $200 million of incremental restructuring benefits for the full year. We are committed to continue to deliver on these savings. Clearly, with volumes rebounding so strongly, we're adding back resources to support this volume growth but we remain firm in our resolve to do so thoughtfully and only when higher volumes dictate the need. Year-over-year, currency was a headwind of $0.02. We expect similar year-over-year headwind in the fourth quarter. The other category on the waterfall shows a negative $0.10 variance. Reduced Pharmaceutical earnings were $0.13 negative impact. Third quarter farmer earnings were $111 million, about in line with our expectations, but $155 million below prior year. Our full year 2010 estimate for farmer pretax earnings is about $480 million. The last point on the EPS waterfall is our third quarter 2010 base tax rate, which was 24% versus 18% in the third quarter 2009, creating a $0.06 negative impact. Looking forward, we estimate the full year 2010 base tax rate to be about 23%. I want to highlight the difference between our third quarter base tax rate of 24.1% and the effective tax rate of a negative 11.8%. The difference in rate is caused by taxes generated from our balance sheet hedging program we refer to as exchange gains and losses or EG&L. When the tax benefit of EG&L is matched with the pretax loss of $160 million, the quarter-over-quarter impact on exchange gains and loss is about $0.01 benefit, and is included in the other category of the waterfall. We provided more detail on Schedule D to show you the exact impact of our hedging program and on our effective tax rate. Let's turn now to the balance sheet and cash on Slide 12. Third quarter free cash flow was an inflow of $60 million. Strong earnings were partially offset by CapEx spending and voluntary $500 million contribution to the principal U.S. pension plan. My goal continues to be to deliver about $1.7 billion in free cash flow for this year. Keep in mind this includes a previously unforecasted $500 million voluntary contribution to our principal U.S. pension plan in September of this year, netted against about $200 million reduction in our capital expenditure forecast. As you recall, we committed to $1 billion working capital productivity over the next three years. Based on networking capital levels, we are on track to deliver $400 million of that in 2010. Again, we have a process around working capital productivity to ensure that we deliver on these commitments. Regarding dividends, just last week, our Board of Directors approved our 425th consecutive dividend. Our long-held strategy has been to maintain a strong balance sheet and return excess cash to our shareholders, unless the opportunity to invest for growth is compelling. In summary, for the third quarter, the year-over-year volume growth that started in the fourth quarter of 2009 continued and expanded in the third quarter. This, along with our pricing discipline and productivity focus, delivered very strong results in the quarter. Turning now to the fourth quarter 2010. We expect the recovery that we've seen in our businesses to continue but at a more moderate pace than we've experienced to date. As you heard described earlier, we continue to see strong demand globally across many of our businesses, tempered by seasonality, scheduled plant shutdowns and expected year end inventory management by our customers. Based on our current outlook, excluding significant items, we expect to earn about $0.30 per share in fourth quarter 2010 versus the $0.44 we earned in the fourth quarter '09. For perspective, Pharmaceutical earnings will be down about $0.13 per share versus prior year, with the added headwind of $0.08 non-cash pension charge. What you have is a strong underlying performance with segment pretax operating income, excluding Pharmaceuticals up about 18%. For our full year 2010 outlook, DuPont leadership remains steadfast and confident in our business plans and our ability to execute against those plans. We are raising our guidance from a range of $2.90 to $3.05 per share to about $3.10 per share, excluding significant items. We do expect fourth quarter results to include a one-time charge of about $0.13 per share, associated with the early extinguishment of debt as part of our plan to refinance higher cost debt. This increase in guidance is based on strong performance year-to-date and confidence in our continued ability to deliver results as we finish the year. This updated guidance puts our underlying earnings per share greater than 50% above 2009 results. We now expect to deliver revenue growth of greater than 15% versus the corporate directive we began 2010 with, which targeted greater than a 10% revenue growth for the year. On Slide 13, looking strictly at pretax segment operating income, excluding significant items, we anticipate 40% growth. And if you exclude Pharma, our growth is nearly 80%. As I said in the start, we have a plan for 2010 and we're executing on that plan, which is in short, grow our businesses across the globe and expand our margins. We're delivering this year and we look forward to continued positive results in the fourth quarter. Now I'll turn it back over to Ellen.