Scott Robinson
Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead. Your line is open
Thanks, Tod. Good morning, everyone. I want to start by thanking our Donaldson employees around the globe. I am impressed with how our teams came together, and once again delivered a solid year. I'm also excited about what is yet to come as we look to fiscal 2023. Before talking through the details on fiscal 2023, I will add some color to fourth quarter results. My comments to follow will focus on adjusted or non-GAAP results, which exclude charges related to the termination of our operations in Russia. These charges totaled 3.4 million pretax and include write-offs for outstanding receivables and customer specific inventory also included our restructuring charges related to the closing of our office in Russia. To summarize the quarter, sales grew 15% operating income was up approximately 19% and EPS of $0.84 increased 27% year-over-year. Operating margin of 14.9% was up 40 basis points versus prior year as operating expense leverage outweighed gross margin pressure, gross margin of 32.9% improved 140 basis points sequentially. However, this represents a 150 basis point decline versus prior year. While our pricing is now offsetting more persistent inflation, such as that of commodities and freight furthermore, transitionary factors such as inefficiencies, labor turnover and training costs as well as sales mix dampened margins. Operating expenses, as a percent of sales was 18.0% favorable by almost 200 basis points over prior year, driven primarily by leverage on higher sales. I'll now briefly talk about fourth quarter segment profitability. For the first time this fiscal year, Engine pretax profit margin at 16.6% was up 90 basis points year-over-year, as our pricing efforts throughout the year began to offset cost pressure in the segment. On the industrial side, pretax profit margin was 17.8% up 50 basis point versus prior year, rebounding from a year-over-year decline in the third quarter. As a reminder, our three fiscal 2022 acquisitions, Solaris, PAIS and Purilogics fall into this segment. The integration of these three businesses is going well. We are continuing to invest in their growth and look forward to seeing them scale. Now turning to the balance sheet and cash flow statements. Our free cash flow this quarter was pressured by elevated working capital, primarily driven by higher receivables from increased sales inventory, while still elevated was less than a store in the quarter. We have begun to see some sequential stabilization in the global supply chain and continue to work towards increased efficiency. Fourth quarter capital expenditures were $28 million, mainly driven by investments and capacity expansion, particularly in North America. Cash conversion in the quarter was approximately 80% versus about 40% through the first nine months of the year, as we are now beginning to return to more normalized levels of conversion resulting from inventory leveling. In terms of capital deployment, we paid about $20 million on a Purilogics acquisition and returned $45 million to shareholders with $28 million in the form of dividends and $17 million in share repurchases. Our balance sheet remains in great shape as we close the year with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of point eight times. The strength of our balance sheet, combined with ample liquidity will allow us to continue pursuing our strategic objectives in 2023 and beyond. Now, I'll walk through our fiscal 2023 outlook. Beginning with sales, we expect our fiscal 2023 sales to be up within a range of between 1% and 5% which includes a negative impact on currency translation of about 4%. The currency impact in both engine and industrial is expected to be similar. Also included in our sales guidance is a pricing benefit of about 6%. To add some color on pricing and sales, in fiscal 2022 the pricing impact of the second half of the year was twice what it was in the first half as actions taken throughout the year layered in. Therefore 2023 pricing benefits will decrease as we begin to lap the prior year's actions, resulting in stronger gains earlier in the year. For Engine, we expect a revenue increase of between 0% and 4% driven by growth and aftermarket and aerospace and defense. We are focusing mid-single digit growth in both of these businesses, while lapping strong fiscal 2022 results. In Engine aftermarket, robust demand driven by continued high levels of vehicle utilization, and market share gains and less material geographies are expected to contribute to growth. Aerospace and Defense sales are expected to be supported by the strengthening commercial aerospace industry, which still has plenty of runway and remains below pre-COVID levels. For Off-Road and On-Road sales are forecasted to be down low single digits, due in part to the strategic exiting of certain low margin programs in both businesses. As we think about the company's profitability and customer portfolio management we are committed to focusing on higher margin opportunities that better reflect the value we bring to customers and are becoming more selective in the projects we engage in. While this might have a short term negative impact on sales, we believe this is the right strategy for increasing profits on increasing sales over time. A few other factors driving our expectations in these two businesses are; within Off-Road our Exhaust and Emissions business is forecasting to slow as volumes related to new emissions programs are believed to have peaked in fiscal 2022, not returning to a more normal run rate. Within On-Road sales will likely be range bound due to continued supply chain issues including chip shortages. Now we'll walk through the industrial segment, where we expect sales growth of 3% to 7% led by strength in IFS. IFS sales are projected to increase high single digits driven by continued dust collection and process filtration, product demand and contributions from our three fiscal 2022 acquisitions. GTS sales are projected to increase low single digits year-over-year. Special applications growth is forecasted to be flat versus the prior year. APAC market weakness is expected to continue to impact sales, including disk drive sales, which will likely still be pressured through the first half of the year. Now I'll move on to our margin outlook. We are forecasting an operating margin range between 14.5% and 15.1%, up from 13.5% in fiscal 2022. Operating margin is expected to be stronger in the second half of the year, driven by gross margin expansion and operating expense leverage. As we move through fiscal 2023, expense discipline will be critical for the company as we manage through a potential recessionary environment, but also strategically invest for the future. Moving to EPS, we expect the range between $2.91 and $3.07, which at the midpoint represent an approximate 11% increase versus fiscal 2022. Now onto our balance sheet and cash flow outlook. As we work towards increased inventory efficiency, we expect working capital to be a source of cash, driving cash conversion in the range of between 110% and 125% higher than historical average year. Capital Expenditures, weighted towards our long term growth initiatives are forecasted to be between 115 million and 135 million, including investments in tooling and equipment for new products and technology, maintenance and infrastructure investments, capacity expansion, and continuous improvement projects for safety, quality and margin improvement. As we think about our capital deployment framework for fiscal 2023, our priorities have not changed. We are committed to maintaining our discipline and strategic approach to M&A with a focus on expanding in life sciences markets, as well as returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Now I'll turn the call back to Tod.