Scott Robinson
Analyst · Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer
Good morning, everyone. As Tod said, we are pleased with our second quarter performance. Sales were up 2.6% from the prior year and adjusted operating income grew 7.6%. Given the uneven macroeconomic environment, it was a strong quarter in terms of both absolute growth and leverage. Looking ahead, we plan to build on that momentum. As I said many times, we are committed to increasing levels of profitability and increasing sales. I know I'm repeating myself, but I also want all of you to know that that statement is a guiding principle for us. One way we deliver on that commitment is through select optimization initiatives, which is how I would characterize the restructured actions we took in the second quarter. Most of these activities are happening in Europe and all of them support our long-term objectives. For example, we are centralizing key aspects of our aerospace business, giving us a strong platform for when the market returns to growth. We are moving the production of certain compressed air products to Eastern Europe, where we have an excellent team and a competitive cost structure. And we are centralizing our European accounts payable and customer service functions to improve standardization and optimization, giving us the ability to leverage common tools as we grow. The projects we initiated in the second quarter should generate annual savings of about $8 million once fully implemented, with about $1 million realized in this fiscal year. These actions drove a second quarter charge of $14.8 million and resulted in an operating margin headwind of about 220 basis points and an EPS impact of $0.08. We have excluded these charges from the calculation of our adjusted operating metrics and the with and without details can be found in this morning's press release. We are confident in the value these optimization projects will create for our company, but I also want to acknowledge that they can be tough on the team. I appreciate all the hard work that has gone into the planning and I want to thank our employees for supporting these initiatives and helping us deliver our long-term goals. With that, I'll dig into our second quarter results a bit more. As I said earlier, adjusted operating profit, which excludes restructuring charges, was up 7.6% from the prior year. That translates to an adjusted operating margin of 13.4%, which is 60 basis points up from the prior year. Second quarter adjusted gross margin grew 30 basis points to 34%, accounting for half the operating margin increase. The price we paid for raw materials in second quarter was lower than last year, due in part to our strategic procurement initiatives and the gains were partially offset by an unfavorable mix of sales. While we expect gross margin will be up in the back half of fiscal 2021, the drivers are predictably changing. As expected, raw materials will move from a tailwind to a headwind and the pressure from mix is going to increase with the anticipated sharp growth in our first-fit businesses over the next two quarters. As always, we remain focused on managing the price cost relationship. Net pricing for the company was a push last quarter and we will take a proactive stance as raw material costs trend higher. We also remain focused on being deliberate with our operating expenses. As a rate of sales, second quarter adjusted operating expense was 30 basis points favorable versus the prior year, continued benefits from lower discretionary expenses, due in part to the pandemic-related restrictions, were partially offset by higher incentive compensation. Importantly, we continue to invest in our strategic priorities. Compared with last year we invested more on research and development and we increased our headcount-related expense to drive growth in our Advance and Accelerate portfolio of businesses. You can see the impact of these choices more prominent in our Industrial segment, where many of our high-growth businesses are reported. If you exclude restructuring charges, the second quarter Industrial profit rate was down about 50 basis points from the prior year, reflecting incremental investments in businesses like Process Filtration and Venting Solutions. On the other hand, solid growth in our Engine segment is creating leverage across the P&L. The team is doing an excellent job of focusing on share gains and market expansion, especially in China, and they are also thinking long term. We are aggressively pursuing share gains in new markets and driving higher aftermarket retention with innovative products. We have great partnerships with many of the world's largest equipment manufacturers. We will be leveraging those relationships, as we all navigate inflationary pressures related to raw materials and fulfilling rapidly elevating demand. Across our company, we believe the balanced approach we have taken throughout the pandemic puts us in a strong position to capitalize on the economic rebound. Instead of making deep cuts to manage a short-term demand pressure, we focused on supporting our investors and making targeted investments into our strategic growth priorities. While we anticipate uneven market trends will continue, we are confident in our long-term positioning. Capital deployment is another area we have a disciplined and balanced approach. We invested about $12 million in the second quarter, which is down more than 70% from the prior year. With the economic environment improving and many of our new apps online, our focus is shifting toward driving productivity gains and working towards the operating margin targets we shared at our Investor Day in 2019. We returned more than $57 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchase, bringing our year-to-date total to almost $100 million. Maintaining our dividend is a priority for us, and we have demonstrated our willingness and ability to grow it over a long period of time. We have increased our dividend each calendar year for the past 25 years, making us part of the elite group, included in the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrat index. Our position on the dividend is the same as it was 65 years ago, when we began paying it every quarter. And I am proud of this trend. Share repurchase is also an important part of our capital deployment priorities, but it's a bit more variable. At a minimum, we plan to offset dilution from stock-based compensation in any given year and we are on track to meet or exceed that objective this year. Beyond that, our share repurchase is guided by our balance sheet metrics, strategic opportunities, and overall market conditions. Overall, our narrative is consistent over time. Our year-to-date results demonstrate both the strength of our business model, and the value we create by taking a long-term focused view. We plan to build on this momentum in the back half of 2021. So let me share some details on our expectations. As Tod mentioned, we see building momentum in our first-fit business throughout the past quarter. With this in mind, we expect sales this year to return to a pattern that is generally in line with our typical seasonality, where about 52% of our full year revenue occurs in the back half. Therefore, we expect full year sales will increase between 5% to 8%, which includes the benefit from currency translation of about 3%. In the Engine segment, full year sales are projected to increase between 8% and 12% with our first-fit business comprising a bigger piece of the recovery story in the back half. We expect full year Off-Road sales to increase in the low 20% range, with building strength in commodity prices, driving an acceleration in equipment production, in agriculture and other select markets. In On-Road, we expect a full year increase in the low teens, driven by the strong rebound in global truck production rates. We expect the momentum to continue in our Aftermarket business, with a full year sales increase in the high single digits. We expect to continue to benefit from improving equipment utilization trends globally, and market share gains in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, where PowerCore is experiencing significant growth. Our Aerospace and Defense business is anticipated to decline in the high-teens digits overall, as demand in the commercial aerospace is expected to remain depressed. We do expect to see sequential improvements as we lap the pandemic-related impacts and helicopter and ground defense programs continue to grow over time. In the Industrial segment, full year sales are projected to be between a 2% decline, and a 2% increase, as recovery in the capital investment environment is still emerging. We continue to press forward with market share gains during this period, and our investments in building the Advance and Accelerate portfolio are expected to continue to result in sales growth above the company average. We expect IFS sales to be roughly flat for the full year, reflecting a return to growth in the back half of the year. While uncertainty remains, we are seeing signs of increased quoting activity and expect we are well positioned to capitalize on any recovery in addition to our gains in share and continued progress with our innovative products in important markets like food and beverage. Our GTS revenue is expected to increase by the mid-single digits driven by continued growth in replacement parts. In special applications, we are anticipating a decline in low single digits based on our year-to-date results and expected softness in the market for disk drive products. At a company level, we are expecting an adjusted operating margin to increase to within a range of 13.8% and 14.2% compared to 13.2% in 2020. This implies a sequential step up in our operating margin to 14.4% for the back half of the year and aligns with our commitment to increasing profitability on increasing sales. Gross margin expansion continues to be an important lever for us. We expect to benefit from our ongoing initiatives to drive cost efficiency in our operations and are positioned to gain leverage on a higher sales volume. Over time, mix should also be a consistent factor in driving our gross margin up. As we think about the near term, however, mix is likely to be a headwind as improving market conditions and our strong position with our large OEM customers will likely result in stronger first-fit sales growth in replacement parts. We are also beginning to see increases in our input costs, including steel and freight rates so we are expecting a cost headwind for the remainder of fiscal 2021. We continue to invest in our customer relationships and in maintaining our position as a top-tier supplier. We will continue to work to align our pricing with the increases in our input and supply chain costs. Additionally, we expect to maintain a disciplined approach to our operating expenses and deliver further leverage in the back half of the year, despite an expected full year headwind of approximately $20 million from increased incentive compensation, about two-thirds of which is in the back half of the fiscal year. For our other operating metrics, we expect interest expense of about $13 million other income of $2 million to $4 million and a tax rate between 24% and 25%. Capital expenditures are planned meaningfully below last year, reflecting the completion of our multiyear investment cycle. Taking the midpoint of our sales and CapEx guidance for 2021, would put it at just over 2% of sales. We expect to repurchase 1% to 2% of our outstanding shares. Finally, our cash conversion was very good in the first half, and we continue to expect to exceed 100%, reflecting strong first half conversion and anticipated increases in working capital later in the fiscal year. As I close my section, I want to take a moment to thank my colleagues around the world for their continued dedication to Donaldson and our customers. We have had a solid first half of our fiscal year and are expecting even better results in the second half. I am very proud of what our employees have been able to achieve in this unprecedented time and I'm optimistic about Donaldson's future. I'll now turn the call back to Tod. Tod?