Scott Robinson
Analyst · Jim Giannakouros of Oppenheimer. Your line is open
Thanks, Tod. Good morning, everyone. We are pleased to have delivered fourth quarter sales above forecast and earnings per share in line with our guidance. Sales jumped 11% to $660 million, and GAAP EPS was $0.51 in the quarter. Our Q4 operating margin of 14.3% was down from last year's GAAP and adjusted rates of 15.2% and 15.8%, respectively. For reference, the prior year adjusted rate excludes $3.5 million of restructuring charges. Fourth quarter gross margin declined to 34.8% from last year's adjusted rate of 35.4%. We saw headwinds from inflation, mix and incremental freight charges. Better fixed cost absorption offset some of those pressures. Our fourth quarter expense rate increased to 20.5% from last year's adjusted rate of 19.6%, driven primarily by higher incentive compensation. Once again, leverage on the sales increase provided some relief. The tax rate was 25.6% in the fourth quarter, down from 28% last year as we had a favorable mix of earnings between tax jurisdictions. I also want to share some perspective on our full year results. We delivered sales of $2.37 billion, which is $150 million above the prior year and the midpoint of our initial FY17 guidance. Despite pressure from incentive compensation and incremental costs from higher-than-expected demand, we delivered an adjusted operating margin growth of 70 basis points. As Tod mentioned, the 13.9% margin in 2017 is a full percentage point above the adjusted rate in 2015 on comparable sales. Our two-year operating margin improvement reflects our ability to capture margin as sales stabilized in a more predictable range, which is what began in the back half of 2016. Over the past six quarters, several key markets moved through stabilization and into recovery. As we added costs over the course of 2017 to meet demand, our incremental profit settled into a level that is more consistent with historic performance. In terms of other key metrics, last year's capital expenditures were $64 million. Notable investments include capacity expansion for key product lines and our e-commerce platform. We completed two strategic acquisitions last year, Partmo and Hy-Pro, for a total investment of $32 million. Fiscal 2017 free cash flow grew 15% to $247 million, and our cash conversion was 106%. While working capital went up with demand, our leverage ratio stayed in line with our target at about 1.5x gross debt to EBITDA. Before moving on, I want to point out a change on our balance sheet. During the fourth quarter, we amended our revolving credit facility and increased its size to give us more flexibility in capital structure. The updated agreement is now classified as long-term debt on the balance sheet. We are pleased with the terms under which the amendment was completed, which are reflective of our long history of taking a disciplined approach to managing our business. This new agreement supports our current and future needs, and we are appreciative of the strong partnerships we have with these lenders. Turning back to our results. We returned nearly $233 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchase last year. Total dividends paid were $92 million. And we repurchased 2.5% of our outstanding shares, which is slightly above our historic average. As we transition to fiscal 2018, we will maintain our discipline with regard to both operations and capital deployment. We're also maintaining a cautious stance with expense planning, which fits, given the mix environment between our two segments and our desire to increase the level of strategic investments. Capacity for making these strategic investments is also coming from leveraging our sales, which are expected to increase between 4% and 8% this year. Currency translation, combined with the benefits from last year's acquisitions, will add about 2% to our growth. The majority of the sales increase is coming from the Engine segment, which is expected to be up 6% to 10% in FY18. Our analysis of external forecasts indicates that both production and utilization of heavy-duty equipment will be up in the low to mid-single-digit range this year. For our businesses, we expect that the benefits from our strategic initiatives will drive growth that outpaces what we see in the markets. Both Off-Road and On-Road are planned to be up in the mid- to high single-digit range. Aftermarket sales are projected to be up in the low double-digit range, which includes a benefit of about 2% from Hy-Pro and Partmo. Aerospace and Defense sales are forecasted down to low single-digit range, driven by a decline in Defense that is partially offset by strength in commercial aerospace. Our Industrial segment continues to face a variety of market conditions. We are planning full year sales to be flat to up 4%, with the strongest growth coming from Industrial Filtration Solutions. We expect IFS will increase in the mid-single-digit range, reflecting strong sales of replacement parts and lukewarm demand for first-fit systems. Sales of Special Applications will be roughly flat with the prior year. The disk drive business is expected to follow the market's secular decline, and another year of strong growth in sales of venting products is helping to offset the pressure. Finally, our Gas Turbine business is planned down in the high single-digit range. We expect that declining sales of turbine projects will be partially offset by growth of GTS replacement parts. For reference, Aftermarket is expected to make up about 60% of GTS sales in FY18, but large turbines less than 20%. Sales into small turbines make up the balance. Our FY18 operating margin is planned between 14% and 14.4%, with the midpoint up 30 basis points from 2017. Lower incentive compensation contributes some favorability, but we also expect strong incremental gains from leverage. We will be investing a portion of these gains into strategic investments related to capacity expansion, customer engagement and diversification through technology development. In total, we are forecasting to spend between $10 million and $15 million on these initiatives next year, which Tod will discuss in greater detail. We are also anticipating margin pressure from inflation in fiscal '18, largely driven by steel and, to a lesser extent, media. As always, we will leverage our continuous improvement programs to mitigate some of the pressure. As a reminder, raw materials represent 60% to 65% of total cost of goods sold, with steel and media being the two largest inputs. In fiscal '18, we expect interest expense of about $21 million, other income between $5 million and $9 million and a full year tax rate between 27.4% and 29.4%. We expect our tax rate to go up this year, given the mix of earnings, but the adoption of the accounting change related to stock option expensing is partly offsetting this impact. We are planning capital expenditures between $80 million and $100 million in FY18, which is up from last year as we support our capacity and technology needs. We expect to deliver full year cash conversion between 75% and 90%, which we feel is appropriate given our opportunities to grow the business this year and invest for future growth. We plan to repurchase approximately 2% of our outstanding shares in FY18, which is consistent with what we would expect over the long term. Our goal in any given year is to at least offset dilution of about 1%, and repurchase beyond that level will be dictated by our balance sheet and strategic agenda. Altogether, we plan to deliver full year earnings per share between $1.79 and $1.93. The midpoint of the range implies a 7% increase in GAAP earnings and a 10% growth from last year's adjusted EPS. Our plan does not contemplate any adjusting items in FY18, so GAAP and adjusted EPS are expected to be one and the same. To help with modeling, I want to quickly touch on our forecasted cadence of sales and profit this year. We are expecting sales will be weighted towards the back half, but not quite to the extent we saw in FY17. We also expect that the sales increase in the first half will be greater than the second half based on an easier comparison. In terms of operating margin, the first half of last year is a tougher comparison. 1 year ago, we were capturing a lot of incremental margin, as sales are increasing much faster than our cost. And the first half of this year will include cost related to our strategic investments. Given those dynamics, we expect that our operating margin improvement will come in the back half of the fiscal year. And one bit of housekeeping on the profit cadence in the first half. For fiscal '18, we changed the timing related to our annual stock option grant. We will now incur that expense, which is around $3 million, in the first quarter versus second quarter. In fiscal 2018, we see an opportunity to drive strong profit growth, increase the level of strategic investments in the business and return cash to our shareholders. I will now turn the call back to Tod to provide some color on our initiatives. Tod?