Scott Robinson
Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Your line is open
Thanks, Tod and good morning everyone. Our company achieved an important milestone in the first quarter as we closed our consolidated books for the first time on our new global ERP. I want to thank everyone involved in reaching this milestone. We have lot of optimization work left, but I am proud of the efforts to-date. I will shift now to a recap of our first quarter performance. We were pleased with our performance as we converted a 2.8% sales increase into strong profit growth on both the GAAP and adjusted basis. First quarter GAAP EPS was up more than 48% driven in part by one-time items this year and last. In 2016, we incurred charges for restructuring and fees for the investigation into our GTS business that totaled $10 million with $3 million in gross margin and $7 million in expense. This year, the one-time impact benefited GAAP earnings. During the quarter, we settled claims against an escrow account that was established when we acquired Northern Technical, 2 years ago. For the terms of the settlement, we can only disclose the financial impact, which was $6.8 million. This benefit was recorded in the other income and expense line of our P&L, so there was no impact on our operating margin and it was excluded from adjusted EPS. Excluding the one-time items in both years, our Q1 adjusted earnings per share grew 11.8% to $0.38 from $0.34 last year. Our operating margin in the quarter grew to 13.8% from last year’s adjusted rate of 12.2% with the majority of this increase coming from gross margin improvement. Our first quarter gross margin of 35.1% benefited from higher fixed costs absorption as compared with last year’s rate, which faced pressure from under absorption. Looking back, our Q1 rate is fairly consistent with our historic first quarter gross margins. We also generated 20 basis points of expense leverage in the quarter. As expected, the tailwind from restructuring actions we took last year was partially offset by higher variable compensation expense. Our balance sheet continues to be a source of strength for us. At the end of the quarter, our gross debt to EBITDA leverage ration was about 1.5x, representing a notable decline from last year’s October rate as we continued to benefit from our efforts to improve working capital. Compared with last October, receivables are down 3% and inventories down almost 13%. The most significant improvement AR is coming from reductions to balance in delinquent accounts and inventories moving in line with the regional level targets we set last year. During the first quarter, we returned $23 million to our shareholders through dividends and invested another $41 million to repurchase 0.8% of our outstanding shares. First quarter capital expenditures of $12 million was below our recent run rate given the timing of certain projects and our cash conversion for the quarter was a very healthy 150%. I know that geographic location of cash is a hot topic right now, so I will add that nearly all of our cash at the end of the quarter was outside the U.S. Turning to our view of fiscal ‘17, I want to start by highlighting the full year impact of the settlement I discussed earlier. We now expect OI&E income between $15 million and $17 million and a full year tax rate between 26.4% and 28.4%. Altogether, GAAP EPS is now forecast to be higher than adjusted EPS by about $0.05. Beyond those changes, our current perspective on the full year performance is consistent with our prior guidance. Total and segment level sales are forecast between a 2% decline and a 2% increase from last year and we are targeted adjusted earnings per share between $1.50 and $1.66. While first quarter performance was encouraging, we are maintaining a cautious stance given the lingering uncertainty we still see in the markets. One area of concern for us is our recent exchange rate volatility. The sales benefit of $1.6 million that we realized in the first quarter reflects quite a bit of movement within the quarter. The tailwind we were seeing during the first two months shifted to a headwind as the dollar strengthened against all major currencies towards the end of the quarter. If today’s rates hold, our first quarter favorability will reverse. Another area of concern is the lack of change in overall market conditions, despite the signs of stability with our own business. Consequently, our expectations for business performance and market conditions are consistent with what we said last quarter. The Engine business is facing ongoing headwinds from heavy-duty equipment production, with on-road seeing the most pressure given the decline in build rates for Class 8 trucks in North America. We think full year sales in that business will be down in the high single-digit range with the aerospace and defense and off-road business are each expected to be down in the mid single-digit range. Specific to off-road, our forecast reflects production declines in all of our end markets. Both agriculture and mining equipment production will be down another 5% to 10% and production of construction equipment is expected to be flat to down 5%. In the aftermarket business, we think we can grow in the low single-digit range in a market where equipment utilization is roughly flat. The increase will be driven by our innovative technology and past investments in geographic expansion including the recent acquisition of Partmo in South America, which is expected to contribute $12 million to $13 million this year. Our perspective on full year sales for the business in the Industrial segment is also unchanged. The tepid first-fit conditions affecting industrial filtration solutions will be more than offset by growth of replacement parts sales, resulting in low single-digit increase for this business. We are also forecasting strong growth of replacement parts sales within the gas turbine business, but it is not enough to offset pressure from lower sales to large turbine projects. Consequently, we expect total GTS sales to be down in the high single-digit to low double-digit range. I do want to point out that pressure in this business is more self directed. Our sales forecast for large driven projects, which will be about 30% of total GTS revenue reflect the expected impact from strategic shift, Tod discussed. Within special applications, we are forecasting a low single-digit decline as lower sales of disk drive filters are only partially offset by growth in areas like venting solutions. We are targeting a full year operating margin between 13.3% and 13.9%, reflecting year-over-year improvement in both gross margin and expense rate. At the midpoint of this range, operating margin is up 40 basis points from 2016’s adjusted rate, despite the net headwind from higher variable compensation that is partially offset by benefits from last year’s restructuring actions. Before moving on, I want to briefly address the question many of you have asked about incremental margins. I will forewarn you that the answer is probably going to be less precise than you would like, but it’s an important topic and we wanted to share our perspective. At a high level, we believe stable or growing sales can drive an incremental profit margin. You saw that in our first quarter results and that expectation is reflected in our full year guidance. The incremental profit rate is dependent on a variety of factors, so I will walk through some of them of the moving pieces. Starting with our structure, fixed expenses are roughly 15% to 20% of cost of goods and they also account for more than two-thirds of total operating expense. Although these data points could be used to model an incremental margin forecast, we would add a word of caution. While that approach works mechanically, it does not capture the nuances within the business. The variability becomes clear when you look at our historic incremental margins. Things like the pace of the sales change, mix of business and a variety of other factors ultimately drive our results. In addition to the operational factors, we have plans to reinvest in our business to accelerate growth, should the opportunity emerge. Our full year guidance wraps together our perspective on all of these factors, so our plan is to limit our guidance to overall operating margin versus providing a precise set of line item targets. With that, I’ll quickly wrap up the fiscal ‘17 guidance. In terms of capital deployment, our forecast includes CapEx of $70 million to $80 million and share repurchase of 2% to 3% of outstanding shares. Our cash conversion is still expected in the 90% to 100% range. Finally, I want to remind everyone of how we expect sales and operating profit to unfold this fiscal year. Our sales forecast reflects similar first half versus second half seasonality as last year. For operating margin, we would expect nearly all of the year-over-year improvement will occur in the first half given the easier comparison last year combined with the frontloaded benefits from previously taken restructuring actions. In summary, the cautious stance we are maintaining allows us to deliver profit growth in a relatively flat sales environment and it also gives us the flexibility to pursue growth opportunities should they emerge. From our perspective, the pockets of uncertainty in the environment will continue to present a challenge, so we will remain focused on operational efficiency and balance sheet discipline across the company. Now, I will turn the call over to Tod for an update on our current priorities. Tod?