Earnings Labs

Dauch Corporation (DCH)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, May 5, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Lisa, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Q1 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jason Parsons, the Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin. Jason P. Parsons - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, Lisa, and good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome everyone who's joining us on AAM's first quarter of 2017 earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our first quarter of 2017 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the Investor page of our website, www.aam.com or through the PR Newswire services. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1-855-859-2056, reservation number 87956022. This replay will be available beginning at 1:00 PM today through 11:59 PM Eastern Time, May 12. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified, and which may cause future activity and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, we ask that you to refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, during the call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures, as well as a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available on our website. Over the next few months, we will participate in the following conferences: the 2017 KeyBanc Capital Markets, Industrial, Automotive and Transportation Conference in Boston on May 31; the Susquehanna Financial Group's 2017 Auto Conference in New York on June 5; the Barclays' 2017 High Yield and Syndicated Loan Conference in…

Operator

Operator

Our first question is going to come from the line of Brian Johnson.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you very much. I have a few questions really around both the quarter and the combined company. In terms of your backlog, joint backlog, it's only been a month since acquisition. But where do you see the revenue synergies coming? Are any of those in the backlog yet? I don't know to what extent you could do joint marketing before your close and do you have a pipeline of those kind of opportunities? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Brian. This is David. We did not include any revenue synergies into our synergistic plan. Clearly, we're evaluating what that is, but we don't have anything to communicate at this time. What I will say is that on a combined basis, we're putting over a $1.5 billion with respect to new and incremental business opportunities that we hope to convert into our backlog in the future.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Second, you had a very strong EBITDA margin in the quarter, just a few questions on that. What are the puts and takes from the Mexican peso, as well as commodity cost and timing perhaps of steel? GM actually mentioned some things around collars. I don't know if that affects you around commodities. And then, second, how are you thinking about the K2XX production cadence going forward in light of the strong 1Q builds, yet the inventory levels at GM and the downtimes? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah, certainly, Brian. This is Chris May. Good morning. Yeah. So, if you look at our year-over-year 2016 to 2017 EBITDA performance from a margin perspective, obviously, last year at 15.5%, and this year a strong performance at 17.5%. So, some of the puts and take of that, I would say about half of that relates to strong volume and mix associated with our production cadence and as you saw, of course, our sales growth through that period. About 25% of that also then increased in terms of margin related to, I would call a good solid productivity we are experiencing in our factories and our continued restructuring programs are benefiting the bottom line. And then the remainder or the other 25% is a net element of FX and metal combined. And we do not really have any collars to speak of, so those I'm not sure where that comment came from. But that really doesn't apply to us. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. And then, Brian, on the production side of things, we built our plant around 1.25 million unit K2XX. I just think at around 1.28 million units is where their plants were. Clearly, we saw very, very strong schedules in the first quarter. We're seeing very good schedules going forward as well. But as you referenced, there is some downtime plants, so they can start the conversion for the next-generation product.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Is your sense that perhaps the – rather than maybe running over time with some to offset downtime later on in the year in the plants that aren't down that perhaps they just pulled ahead some production to take advantage of more regular time later in the year, or any kind of evolution in your thinking on for the second and third and fourth quarter cadence there. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: No. I mean, I think the other markets have been very strong for trucks and SUVs, and GM obviously commands a significant market share, so they're going to protect that. Same time, they know that they've got some planned downtime as they go forward here, so I'm sure there was some inventory build because of that. But as I said to you, we see very strong schedules through the balance of the year and I have given you how we planned our financials based on 1.25 million units for the year.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Just final question. Now that you have the keys to the plants, are you taking a look at opportunities to improve productivity, to perhaps substitute capital for labor, some of the Metaldyne plants we've toured over the years have equipment that's somewhat old now. I'm sure it's great equipment, but now that you own it are there opportunities and then how would that affect CapEx and productivity going forward. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Clearly, we're bringing together two very strong operating companies. Their strength, on both sides of the business, is in regards to productivity and automation and throughputs. The main thing from a CapEx standpoint, we do think there's some opportunities for us to optimize the utilization of our combined equipments. We are very focused on productivity in both organizations. So, therefore, we'll take the best practices of both and read it across the combined business where it makes business sense. Where we need to include some automation, we'll clearly take that into consideration. We've also got good working relations with all of our associates in the plants on both sides, so that's a positive thing. We will not have to worry about any morale issues or anything along those lines. As we've identified in our synergy opportunities, there's at least $10 million to $20 million of productivity opportunities associated with plant loading, product loading and just throughput opportunities. And we're highly confident that we can deliver on that going forward.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Thanks, Brian. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thanks, Brian.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Good morning, Joe. Jason P. Parsons - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Hi, Joe.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

I was just wondering if you could help me with this bridge a little bit, just bear with me. So, 2017 pro forma, if we don't back out the quarter so you didn't own MPG, you're at like $6.8 billion in sales. And then, you mentioned about $1 billion of gross backlog in 2018 and 2019. Cumulatively, over that timeframe, it seems like there's another maybe $300 million in attrition and then $450 million in GM roll offs, which gets you to about a $7 billion number. And if I look at some of the merger docs, it looks like that number was higher originally, maybe closer to $7.5 billion. So, am I missing a part of that or where is my math wrong, or did something change? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah, Joe. This is Chris May. A couple of items I would add in terms of that perspective. Here you have the underlying base book of business growth that we are seeing and would expect to experience in the commercial and industrial segment business that will continue to grow. As you know, that's come down to a lower point here through 2016, and we're starting to see growth in that segment yet already now in 2017 and that is expected to grow through that timeframe. In addition, as David mentioned earlier, we're still quoting on another $1.5 billion plus of new business opportunities that will fall also into that timeframe from a growth perspective. So those are kind of two main areas I would point your direction towards to as you think about putting that go-forward bridge together. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Joe, as you referenced, there are some of the roll-off of some of the next-generation full-size truck GM product for us. There is also the roll-off of the KBI business this year for the MPG, and then we pretty well already identified what our cadence is on a gross business backlog. We've also identified that there is an annual run-off or attrition of about $100 million to $200 million on an annualized basis as well.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Right. So I guess was that considered in some of the preliminary data in the merger docs or, I guess, put simply, would you say that at a high level, those figures in the merger documents are still roughly accurate? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: All those items, Joe, were included and considered through the merger documents that you're referring to. Again, you got to look at some of the underlying businesses driving that growth, new business quoting activity. And you know our backlog, we disclosed is only booked business. So, obviously, we have opportunity upside from there.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then I guess somewhat related, one of the questions we've been getting from investors this morning is does 17.5 million units look aggressive? And if I go back to one of your, I think, original presentations post the deal at a conference, I think you were saying originally 17 million units to 17.5 million units. I think you officially use 17.25 million units and those revenue and EBITDA numbers are basically the same that you're saying today. So, is it fair to assume you've done a more bottom-up analysis, you're less sensitive to SAAR? I mean, it clearly is standalone Axle with a heavy GM and K2 exposure. I always figured you were less sensitive to whatever the SAAR number was. But is that still a fair assumption? I mean, the numbers you came up with are more bottoms-up and less industry SAAR sensitive? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: The answer is yes. We're clearly going to be less dependent on the U.S. SAAR and focused more on the global SAARs as we've expanded our capabilities now with the MPG acquisition. But obviously, we'll manage both. As we've always said on the U.S. SAAR, you have to look at the volume and mix, just don't look at the total. We're right in the sweet spot of trucks and SUVs and crossover vehicles, so that's a positive for us. At the same time, you have to look at production and what's going on in the production environment, not just the sales environment. We feel that's still going to be a healthy market that's out there. And we've also reduced as you highlighted our dependence on given customers or given platforms through this acquisition. So, that's all been positive. And as Chris indicated, we've expanded the markets by moving that – solely from just being in the automotive and now moving into some of the industrial and some of the commercial markets. So, we're not nervous about the overall U.S. SAAR. We'll adjust our business accordingly whatever that market demand is. But more importantly right now, we feel very confident about where we are especially with the mix that's out there heavily weighted towards trucks, SUVs, crossovers and only growing as we go forward.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. I'll pass on, and congrats on closing the deal. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Thank you, Joe. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thanks, Joe. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Go ahead, Ryan.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks. As regards to cash integration cost to help drive the synergies, you've quantified that before as roughly 1 times to $100 million to $120 million of savings. I heard you say that again today. But two questions along those lines. Firstly, can you speak to the likely cadence of that spending? And then secondly going back to kind of the original call to announce the transaction last year, you had spoken about some potential offsets relative to maybe working capital improvements or cash tax savings. Can you talk about sort of how the net amount might track and the cadence of it? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Good morning, Ryan. This is Chris May. Yes. The cadence timing that David referred to a little earlier, we anticipate from cost to implement these synergies, approximately 70% run rate of synergies by the end of the year one. We would expect that cadence of cash cost to mirror that very closely. You'll see us disclose today in our public filings we expect around $65 million to $75 million of integration and acquisition-related cost to incur in 2017. So, some of that's integration; a little bit is simply fees, et cetera associated with the acquisition. But still well aligned with our timing consideration that we had mentioned previously and that's our line of sight here today. But yeah, even more importantly though in terms of funding some of this activity was the benefits we see from a cash perspective, not just the synergy dollars that we talked about on an EBITDA run rate. But from a cash perspective, in terms of working capital, our ability to have our operating systems across now this entire fleet of our global facility to improve inventory and inventory turns, that will generate cash for us. We are already seeing immediate cash tax benefits in terms of on a global basis, not only state and local in the U.S., U.S. federal as well as global. So, we'll see some of that benefit translate into cash savings for us. And then, of course, CapEx. We have identified several opportunities we'll work through over the next year or so in terms of being able to better utilize our CapEx and potentially defer, delay or remove some of our CapEx spend we are planning on.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Great. That's very helpful. And then, obviously, the margin was very strong in the first quarter, a lot higher than analysts were expecting. But because the guidance now includes MPG, whereas before, of course, it did not, it's not obvious to the extent to which you're flowing through the 1Q strength to the full year. So, I thought to just ask how you think – and I don't if you (40:22) can talk about this ongoing – but how maybe this quarter, how the core American Axle business is performing so far in 2017 relative to your expectations when you first introduced guidance in Detroit? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: The core business is performing outstandingly well. We've been working very aggressively on cost reduction programs internally within AAM prior to the acquisition of MPG. We'll carry that same conviction, that same vigor and same aggressiveness into the combined business and we'll jointly work together and leverage the strengths of the combined businesses to continue to drive cost reductions, while at the same time, drive margin expansion.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Very helpful. And then, just lastly for me. Of course, American Axle has historically been strongly levered to truck platforms, which is a great benefit for you. Can you say how the combined company is going to be levered across the various different vehicle segment categories? I know there's still very strong overrepresentation in trucks but it would be great if you could help to quantify the new exposure for us? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Hey, Ryan, I'm not sure if we've completely broken out truck dependence versus passenger car. But I'll say this, I mean obviously, we get a lot more diversification based on bringing MPG into the family as far as exposure to passenger car side of the business, as well as the industrial and the commercial side of the business. Obviously, we've always been strong in the truck side. We're seeing continued growth in the crossover vehicle side of the overall business. And, as you know, we're heavily dependent on one platform. The GM full-size truck platform was over 50% of our sales before. And now, it's less than 30% of our sales going forward here. So, again, part of the objective here was get the diversification of the customer base, the vehicle platforms, the geographic footprint, and the MPG acquisition delivered all that for us.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks so much. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank you. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, Ryan.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, everybody. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Hi, Rod.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

I had a couple of questions. First, just the EBITDA margin obviously was pretty impressive. The incremental EBITDA was 42% on your revenue growth. You mentioned that 25% of that margin expansion was FX and metals. That last part, the 25%, was that an unusual positive for you that will reverse as you pass along metals and some hedges or how should we be thinking about this? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Rod, this is Chris. Good morning. That 25% we mentioned was net of FX and metals. FX was actually a little stronger. Metals was a very slight negative towards this in the quarter. As you know, the indices have been traveling up towards a little bit here in terms of the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2017. And as that goes up, our revenue goes up a little bit associated with it and we have a little bit of margin declination with dollars but that was very minor. Most of it was FX-related. Most of it was related to the peso and we are growing into some of our hedges now that we placed on a rolling basis over the last 12 to 36 months.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Great. And I was hoping maybe we can just kind of bridge the free cash flow. I hope we could do this kind of at a high level, but at a high level, last year the free cash flow American Axle was about $190 million and that included some Mexico tax impacts, so maybe $220 million ex that. MPG did $125 million. So, that's combined $345 million. The S4 had MPG's EBITDA up $11 million. You guys on a standalone basis for American Axle, you had EBITDA up $35 million. So, it's may be a $45 million improvement. You're talking about may be $40 million or $50 million of synergies in year one, and you've got $300 million in net new business, which I would assume that would convert at 20% to 25%. I think that part of the offset obviously is the CapEx being $75 million higher. But what else brings that down to around $300 million? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. So, what I would tell you, Rod, if you take the two combined companies, last year, the numbers you said is right. It was a little over $300 million. Tax benefits, of course, you mentioned the Mexico tax piece but we'll also incur some other tax benefits of combined entities probably in excess of $50 million or as a combined cash tax payer we were over $100 million last year. We'll be half of that this year. The increased CapEx is significant for us in terms of taking this up to 8% as we're launching these significant backlogs. Coming online is probably the number one item that we would have in terms of cash flow down, and of course we'll continue to grow. We're going to have working capital consumption to grow this business and even on a net basis, it's up over $200 million, right. On a pro forma basis that will consume its normal working capital and payables, receivables inventory on a net basis. But also as we're launching some of our key big underlying platforms such as T1, for example, our next-generation General Motors full-size truck we have some tooling requirements that I would call it kind of a supersized working capital element of that as well. But all those puts-and-takes gets us to around the $300 million.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. So it's a big working capital, I guess, is the plug basically to get down to that number... Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Working capital and CapEx are you referring to?

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Right. The CapEx you guys have quantified. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: And then, of course, interest will be somewhat neutral to a little bit (45:50).

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Right. Right. Got it. Okay. Thank you. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Okay.

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of John Murphy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Just a first question on the balance sheet. I mean, I think if we look at this there's about $2.7 billion of net debt on a pro forma combined basis, and it looks like the EBITDA is coming in about $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. So, we now put your net debt to the EBITDA somewhere in the 2.4 times, 2.5 times. You guys are talking about 3.5 times, is there something that I'm missing there or has something changed? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. No. Nothing's changed. Hi, good morning, John. This is Chris. We gave the guidance that we will expect to close the deal around 3.5 times. We beat that a little bit. We're a little better than that in terms of closing that first week of April. But if you look at our closing balance sheet on March 31, we had about half of that in there. We didn't draw down another $1.6 billion in debt until to close at April, and then you'll need to factor that in and that will get you just under your 3.5 times.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Got you. So, there's another draw still to go on this (47:02)? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Correct. We didn't draw the term loan A and B until April 6.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Got you. Okay. That's incredibly helpful. And then, just a second question. As we think about sort of your review of the MPG businesses top to bottom, it was interesting to hear that Grede would be off on its own in a casting business line. Is there any thought you might monetize Grede and sell it as a non-core business? And also as you're going through things here, I mean, is there is a bunch of CNC machines over in KBI and Sandusky that can be repurposed. Just curious what you're going to be doing with those assets and if you can move them quickly. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. John, all the businesses are core business to AAM and obviously as we always do, we'll evaluate our portfolio as we go forward. But all the businesses at this point in time are core businesses including the casting business. With respect to the assets, not only KBI, but we'll look across the entire enterprise. We'll evaluate what we can do again to drive capacity utilization, facility utilization, associate utilization. But with respect to the specific assets at KBI, we'll look at redeploying a portion of those and at the same time there's been an active program under MPG that we're continuing right now to sell some of those assets as well.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you very much. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank you. Jason P. Parsons - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, John. And we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.