Tim Regan
Analyst · Dropbox's website following this call. I will now turn it over to Karan Kapoor, Head of Investor Relations for Dropbox. Mr. Kapoor, please go ahead
Thank you, Drew. Before turning to our quarterly results, I'd like to start with a reminder of our financial strategy. We are continuing to pursue sustained growth and profitability in a disciplined and thoughtful manner while remaining committed to our long-term objectives. We also remain focused on allocating capital to growth initiatives that we believe will drive future revenue, both organically and through acquisitions while also returning a significant portion of our free cash flow to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. As Drew highlighted, we are keeping a close eye on the macro environment, and in particular, foreign exchange rates, where we continue to see intensifying headwinds from the strengthening dollar. I will discuss this in more detail shortly. Let's start with our third quarter performance, and I'll provide updated guidance for the remainder of the year. Beginning with our third quarter results. Total revenue for the quarter increased 7.4% year-over-year to $591 million, beating our guidance range of $584 million to $587 million. Foreign exchange rates provided an approximate $13 million headwind to growth, in line with our previous expectations. On a constant currency basis, revenue grew 9.7% year-over-year. Total ARR for the quarter grew 9.6% year-over-year for a total of $2.431 billion. On a constant currency basis, ARR grew by $98 million sequentially and 10.2% year-over-year. This step-up is sequential ARR and acceleration in our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis was largely driven by pricing and packaging changes with our Teams plans that we announced in June, which Drew touched on earlier. We exited the quarter with 17.55 million paying users and added approximately 180,000 net new paying users in the third quarter. Average revenue per paying user was $134.31 in Q3, up nearly $1 from Q2, primarily driven by increased pricing on our Teams plans, partially offset by FX headwinds and the adoption of our Family plan, which, as a reminder, is comprised of six seats and therefore, carries a lower ARPU profile. Before we continue with further discussion of our P&L, I would like to note that unless otherwise indicated, all income statement figures mentioned are non-GAAP, and excludes stock-based compensation, amortization of purchased intangibles, certain acquisition-related expenses, impairments of our real estate assets and net gains on equity investments. Our non-GAAP net income also includes the income tax effect of the aforementioned adjustments. I'll now provide a brief update on our real estate strategy, where we have been taking steps to de-cost our real estate portfolio as a result of our transition to a virtual-first model. While the real estate market is evolving, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area, at this time, we continue to estimate that our total impairment charges will be up to $450 million. In Q3, we recorded an additional $4 million in impairment charges, primarily related to an increase in our common area fees for our San Francisco headquarters where we have space available for sublease. This brings our cumulative impairment to $442 million. With that, let's continue with the P&L. Gross margin was 83% for the quarter, representing an increase of nearly two percentage points on a year-over-year basis. The improvement in our gross margin was primarily driven by ongoing efficiencies in our data center infrastructure as well as greater optimization around our customer support needs. Third quarter R&D expense was $166 million or 28% of revenue, which increased compared to 24% of revenue in the third quarter of 2021. The increase in R&D was primarily driven by an increase in hiring to backfill the elevated levels of attrition we saw last year and as we continue to invest in growth and other key initiatives. Going forward, we do not expect to see this pace of growth in R&D as a percentage of revenue continue as we expect that most of our critical openings will be filled by the end of the year. Third quarter sales and marketing expense was $95 million or 16% of revenue, which decreased compared to 19% of revenue in the third quarter of 2021 as a majority of our brand campaign spend last year was incurred in Q3. Third quarter G&A expense was $43 million or 7% of revenue, which decreased compared to 8% of revenue in the third quarter of 2021. In total, we earned an operating profit of $187 million in the third quarter, representing an operating margin of 32% and up roughly 2 points compared to the third quarter of 2021. Our Q3 operating margin exceeded guidance by about 3 points, driven by stronger-than-expected gross margin, efficiencies from hiring in lower-cost locations, lower-than-expected T&E costs and lower project spend. Net income for the third quarter was $153 million, which is a 4% increase versus the third quarter of 2021. Diluted EPS was $0.43 per share based on 360 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding, up from $0.37 per share based on 398 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding for the third quarter of 2021. Consistent with the past two quarters, our year-over-year income tax expense increased significantly to the impact of new R&D tax legislation and given that we have now fully utilized our NOLs for non-GAAP tax purposes. Moving on to our cash balance and cash flow. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $1.5 billion. Cash flow from operations was $251 million in the third quarter, and capital expenditures were $6 million during the quarter. This resulted in quarterly free cash flow of $245 million compared to $221 million in Q3 of 2021. In the third quarter, we added $18 million to our finance leases for data center equipment. Let's turn to our share repurchase activity. In Q3, we continued executing against a $1.2 billion authorization that was approved earlier this year by repurchasing 7.7 million shares, spending approximately $171 million. As of the end of the third quarter, approximately $922 million remains under the current authorization. With that, let's turn to guidance for Q4 and for the full year. I will also provide some context on the thinking behind this guidance. For the fourth quarter of 2022, we expect revenue to be in the range of $592 million to $595 million. We are assuming a currency headwind of approximately $19 million in the fourth quarter, which translates to more than a 300 basis point headwind to growth and a $2 million greater than what was implied in our previous full year guidance. We expect non-GAAP operating margin to be approximately 29% to 29.5%. The expected sequential decline from Q3 operating margin is primarily driven by planned infrastructure investments to meet our future capacity needs, an increase in expected project spend and finalizing our planned hiring for the year. Finally, we expect diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be in the range of $354 million to 359 million shares based on our trailing 30-day average share price. For the full year 2022, we are raising our reported revenue guidance to $2.318 billion to $2.321 billion, up from our previous guidance range of $2.308 billion to $2.318 billion. On a constant currency revenue basis, we are raising by $8.5 million at the midpoint to $2.354 billion to $2.357 billion, up from the prior range of $2.342 billion to $2.352 billion. We now estimate a full year 2022 currency headwind of approximately $36 million, up from our prior forecast of $34 million. We are raising our gross margin guidance to approximately 82%, up from our prior forecast of approximately 81.5% due to some of the infrastructure efficiencies we've seen this year. We are also raising our operating margin guidance to be in the range of 30.5% to 31%, up from our prior guidance of approximately 30%. This operating margin guidance range is inclusive of an approximately 1 point headwind from FX. We are raising the midpoint of our free cash flow guidance by $5 million to now be in the range of $770 million to $790 million, compared to our prior forecast of $760 million to $790 million. This includes $17 million in cash outflows for the 2022 installments of acquisition-related deal consideration holdbacks. And as a reminder, our free cash flow guidance is also inclusive of an estimated $25 million headwind resulting from the impact of R&D tax legislation newly affected in 2022. We continue to expect capital expenditures for 2022 to be in the range of $25 million to $35 million. We continue to expect additions to our finance lease lines to be approximately 5% of revenue in 2022. This implies a significant step up in Q4 leases due to a planned build-out of new data center, expected to go live in early 2023. Finally, we expect 2022 diluted shares outstanding to be in the range of 363 million to 368 million shares, down from our previous guidance range of 364 million to 369 million shares. This reduction in our share count reflects our commitment to and anticipated impact of our share repurchase program. To share some additional context on this guidance. For 2022, we are raising the high end of our constant currency revenue guidance range, up by $5 million. As we mentioned earlier, we are pleased with the early results of our pricing and packaging changes to our Teams plans, which is being partially offset by continued moderation in our document workload businesses, DocSend and Dropbox Sign, and some recent softness in our Plus SKU, particularly on mobile. As a reminder, in Q3, we saw benefits from pricing and packaging changes to our standard and advanced teams plans, which largely went into effect in July. Given the introduction of additional value to these plans, we raised their respective prices by 20%. The subset of our user base that is ultimately subject to the price increase comprises roughly 1/3 of our total ARR. The majority of these customers will see the pricing increase this year with the remainder lending in 2023 as well as 2024 for some of our managed accounts. While we do not guide to ARR, it is important to keep in mind that we do not expect to see a similar step-up in absolute ARR in Q4 as Q3 includes an immediate contribution from our monthly customers, subject to the pricing change. And remember, given our ratable recognition model, the revenue impact will flow accordingly to 2022 and beyond. As related to operating margin, while we are experiencing incremental FX headwinds, T&E and office reopening expenses as pandemic restrictions soften, we are raising our 2022 operating margin guidance as we continue to have success with our ability to hire top talent outside of traditional high-cost tech hubs such as San Francisco, New York and Seattle as well as due to infrastructure efficiencies, driving higher gross margin. As related to full year free cash flow, we are raising the midpoint of our 2022 free cash flow guidance. As a reminder, compared to when we introduced our free cash flow guidance at the beginning of the year, the significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar has resulted in more than a $30 million headwind to our initial free cash flow guidance. I'd also note that FX has a more immediate impact on billings and enhance free cash flow as compared to revenue, given our ratable revenue recognition model. Thus, a larger cash impact will be absorbed this year, offsetting the benefits of our increased operating margins, which brings me to our long-term financial targets of delivering operating margins of 30% to 32% and $1 billion of annual free cash flow by 2024. As you can see from our Q4 guidance, we are seeing FX headwinds intensify as we exit the year based on how our software subscription business recognizes revenue over a period of time from the time of booking. Assuming these current FX rates remain constant, we will experience increased currency headwinds to revenue and free cash flow in 2023. While we believe we are managing the business in a way that will enable us to weather a more challenging backdrop, we recognize there is a lot of uncertainty. And so while we believe it is too early to make any changes to our long-term financial targets at this time, we are keeping a close eye on the macro environment and how best to respond as events unfold. In conclusion, we continue to execute well against our initiatives, demonstrating stability and solid execution during a time of increasing uncertainty. I'm especially proud of our team for remaining focused on our customers while running the business efficiently to drive margin outperformance and healthy free cash flow generation, which we continue to allocate in a way that drives long-term value to the business and our shareholders. With that, I'll now turn it over to the operator for Q&A.