Tim Regan
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open
Thank you, Drew. I want to begin with a reminder of our investment thesis and our financial North Star as this provides the context for what we focus on and where we are headed. Here are the core principles of our investment thesis; doubling free cash flow to $1 billion annually by 2024, investing for continued revenue growth, driving annual improvements in operating margins targeting 28% to 30%, allocating capital to organic initiatives and acquisitions that align with our strategic and financial objectives and returning capital to shareholders by allocating a significant portion of our annual free cash flow to share repurchases with the goal of reducing our share count. We believe that execution against these objectives will generate long-term value for our shareholders. With this context, I'd like to talk through our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results, which demonstrate our continued progress against our long-term targets. Total revenue for the fourth quarter increased 13% year-over-year to $504 million. Foreign exchange rates did not have an impact on year-over-year revenue growth for this period. Total ARR for the fourth quarter was $2.022 billion, up 11% year-over-year. We continued to drive growth in ARR through the release of value-enhancing features, the introduction of new SKUs and add-on products and continued growth across HelloSign subscription plans. We ended the year with 15.48 million paying users and added approximately 230,000 new paying users in the fourth quarter. Average revenue per paying user for the quarter was $130.17. Before I turn to the P&L, I wanted to highlight some customer wins we had in the fourth quarter where the team had success driving the adoption of new add-on products that we introduced in 2020. First, we are pleased to announce that we signed one of the largest energy providers in the United States with a Dropbox customer. They turned to Dropbox to transform how they provide a secure, cloud-based content storage solution for their on-site and field workers. Committed to finding a solution that would ensure their IT security was best in class, the company selected Dropbox along with our data governance add-on to modernize how teams such as project managers and field technicians work and collaborate on large and highly-sensitive files. Given the length of projects and compliance requirements that the company must adhere to, our data governance add-on was a critical part of the solution. Another win to highlight is 1000heads Group, a global media company based in Europe. 1000heads approached Dropbox as part of their strategy to secure and consolidate their data and empower their workforce in their creative and operational processes. Dropbox along with Paper and the Creative Tools add-on will be a critical part of 1000heads creative workflows. By standardizing on one single collaborative space 1000heads will have the ability to securely manage their content while making a move away from costly on-premise infrastructure. Creative Tools was the most exciting piece of the puzzle for 1000heads as 90% of all their creative content is created in-house. In addition, the ability to access 10 years of historical company data allows these creatives to dip into previous campaigns for inspiration and content. Before we continue with further discussion of our P&L, I would like to note that unless otherwise indicated, all income statement measures mentioned are non-GAAP and excludes stock-based compensation, amortization of purchased intangibles, certain expenses related to the acquisition of HelloSign and an impairment of our real estate assets. Our non-GAAP net income also excludes net gains and losses on equity investments and includes the income tax effect of the aforementioned adjustments. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results may be found in our earnings release, which was furnished with our Form 8-K filed today with the SEC and in the supplemental investor materials posted on our Investor Relations website. Additional information regarding the exchange rate assumptions used in our guidance may also be found in our supplemental investor materials. One reminder, as part of moving to a Virtual First work model, we are taking steps to de-cost our real estate portfolio by subleasing our existing facilities. We previously shared on our third quarter earnings call that as we do not expect to recover the full value of our lease obligations we anticipated recording an impairment charge in the range of $400 million to $450 million related to our real estate assets with the vast majority of this impairment charge to be recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020 and a portion to be incurred in 2021. In the fourth quarter, we incurred an impairment charge related to our real estate assets of $398 million. We continue to expect to incur additional charges relating to certain European leases over the next 12 months, which could range between zero and $50 million depending on the then current market and economic conditions. Now let’s continue with the P&L. Gross margin was 80% for the quarter, representing an increase of 2 percentage points on a year-over-year basis. The improvement in our gross margin is primarily a result of unit cost efficiency gains with our infrastructure hardware. Turning to our operating expenses. I’d like to note that all expense categories benefited from lower facilities related costs, driven by our employees working from home, as well as a reduction in depreciation as a result of the write-down in our real estate assets stemming from the impairment. Fourth quarter R&D expense was $129 million or 26% of revenue, which decreased compared to 30% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2019. Sales and marketing expense was $100 million in Q4 or 20% of revenue which decreased compared to 22% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2019. G&A expense was $47 million or 9% of revenue, which decreased compared to 11% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2019. In addition to lower overhead, G&A benefited from non-recurring releases of certain non-income tax reserves. As a result, we earned $128 million in operating profit in the fourth quarter, which represented operating margin of 25%. This compares to 16% operating margin in the fourth quarter of 2019. Net income for the fourth quarter was $118 million, which is a 75% improvement over the fourth quarter of 2019. Diluted EPS was $0.29 per share based on 416 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding, up from $0.16 per share for the fourth quarter of 2019. Moving on to cash balance and cash flow. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $1.116 billion. Cash flow from operations was $171 million in the fourth quarter. Capital expenditures of $12 million during the quarter resulted in free cash flow of $158 million or 31% of revenue. In the fourth quarter, we added $40 million to our finance leases for data center equipment. In addition, during our third quarter call, we shared our intention to increase the pace at which we repurchase shares under our existing $600 million share repurchase authorization with the potential to exhaust this authorization by the end of the first quarter of 2021. In line with this intention we repurchased 11 million shares in the fourth quarter spending $220 million. Now let's turn to our full-year 2020 results. Total revenue for 2020 was $1.914 billion, representing 15% year-over-year growth. On a constant currency basis relative to the average rates across 2019, year-over-year growth would have been 16%. Gross margin was 79% for the year, which was up 3 percentage points from 2019. Operating margin was 21% for 2020 which was up 9 percentage points from 2019. This significant year-over-year improvement demonstrates our commitment and ability to execute against our investment thesis. Cash flow from operations for 2020 was $571 million. Capital expenditures for the full year totaled $80 million which yielded free cash flow of $491 million or 26% of revenue. Excluding headquarter spend net of tenant improvement allowances for $26 million and the payout of HelloSign deal consideration holdback of $28 million, free cash flow would have been $545 million or 28% of revenue. In 2020 we also added $146 million to our finance lease lines for data center equipment. Net of repayments, our finance lease balance increased by $56 million. I’d now like to introduce our 2021 first quarter and full-year guidance. For the first quarter of 2021, we expect revenue to be in the range of $504 million to $506 million. Currency exchange rates assumed in this guidance account for an approximate 1.3 points of growth at the midpoint of guidance this quarter and are based on a combination of recent and historical average rates. We expect non-GAAP operating margin to be in the range of 27.5% to 28%. This margin guidance excludes approximately $15 million related to the severance and benefits paid to employees impacted by a reduction in force in Q1. Finally, we expect diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be in the range of 409 million to 414 million shares based on our trailing 30-day average share price. For the full year 2021, we expect revenue to be in the range of $2.095 billion to $2.115 billion. Currency exchange rates assumed in this guidance account for an approximate 2 points of growth at the midpoint of guidance this year and are based on a combination of recent and historical average rates. We expect gross margin to be approximately 1 point higher than fiscal 2020. We expect non-GAAP operating margin to be in the range of 27% to 28%. This also excludes the aforementioned severance benefits paid in Q1. We expect free cash flow to be in the range of $645 million to $655 million. This includes $31 million in cash outflows, comprised of $16 million for the 2021 installments of deal consideration holdback related to our acquisition of HelloSign and one-time severance payments of approximately $15 million related to our reduction in force. Finally, we expect 2021 diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be in the range of 402 million to 407 million shares. This reduction in our share count reflects our commitment to and the impact of our share repurchase program. In addition to this formal guidance, I wanted to share some further thoughts on our expectations for 2021. While we don't formally guide to paying users, I want to provide some context on our expectations for this metric in 2021. As a reminder, our objective is to drive growth in ARR in profitable and efficient ways without over indexing on specifically growing either paying users or ARPU. As we consider this and as part of the strategy behind our workforce reduction, we are prioritizing our land and expand and self-serve go-to-market motions which are most efficient across our individual, small business and mid-market customers. Accordingly, we intend to minimize the pursuit of opportunities that carry lower average seat prices, higher acquisition costs and greater degrees of customization, which could lead to lower paying user additions in certain quarters. Conversely, we are also seeing early positive signals from the adoption of our Family plan which could lead to higher paying user additions. As a result, we may see more variability in our paying user additions in the future. Overall, we will continue to focus on our strengths that allow us to engage in our most efficient go-to-market strategies while investing in our existing and new products. Separately as related to capital expenditures, we expect our additions to our finance leases to be approximately 6% of revenue and we expect cash CapEx to be in the range of $25 million to $35 million in 2021. Lastly, I want to reiterate our plan to return capital to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. We still plan to exhaust our previously authorized $600 million share repurchase program in the first quarter of 2021. In addition, our Board has authorized an additional $1 billion share repurchase program consistent with our strategy to allocate a significant portion of our annual free cash flow to share repurchases, with the goal of reducing our share count. In conclusion, our progress in 2020 and our plan for 2021 keep us on a trajectory to achieve our long-term targets and our investment thesis. While we are approaching our gross margin and operating margin targets this year, we intend to continue to invest for sustainable revenue growth. As a result, we may reinvest some of the savings that we are generating from our efficiency initiatives into growth opportunities. We therefore remain committed to our target model and our 2024 free cash flow goal of $1 billion. We look forward to sharing our progress along the way. With that, I’ll now turn it back to Drew for closing remarks.