Earnings Labs

Designer Brands Inc. (DBI)

Q3 2008 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 25, 2008

$7.53

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Welcome to the Third Quarter 2008 DSW Inc. Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today’s call Ms. Leslie Neville, Director of Investor Relations.

Leslie Neville

Management

With me today in Columbus are Debbie Ferrée our Vice Chairman and Chief Merchandising Officer and Doug Probst our CFO. Earlier today we issued a press release detailing the results of operations for the quarter ended November 1, 2008. Before we proceed please note that various remarks we make about the future expectations, plans and prospects of the company constitute forward looking statements. The actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those listed in today's press release and in our public filings with the SEC. With that, I will turn it over to Doug.

Doug Probst

Management

My comments today will start with detail around the third quarter and then move into our outlook for the balance of 2008. As previously released net sales for the third quarter increased 6.5% to $391.4 million. Same store sales decreased 4.1% for the comparable period versus a decrease of 3% last year. Like most retailers traffic was down in the quarter, however, we are pleased to report that our conversion rate on the mall traffic was up, resulting in a net increase in comp store transactions. Inventory levels entering the third quarter were positioned appropriately relative to the anticipated comp store sales decline resulting in a 44.1% merchandise margin rate, a 10 basis point increase to last year. The gross profit rate dropped to 27.9% due mainly to a 100 basis point increase in occupancy expenses related to the negative comp. As expected the SG&A rate increased 290 basis points in the quarter to 22.5% due mainly to the decrease in same store sales, the increase in IT and e-commerce spend and the reversal of the year to date accrual for bonus in 2007. For the quarter the net result was a 270 basis point decrease in the operating income rate to 3.4% of sales. Net income for the quarter was $13.2 million compared with net income of $22.4 million for last year and diluted earnings per share were $0.30 compared with $0.51 a year ago. We are pleased with how we managed the business in the third quarter and we are especially pleased with the customer’s response in what continues to be a difficult economic environment. Excluding the incremental inventory investment for DSW.com inventories we essentially flat to last year on a cost per square foot basis entering the fourth quarter. While this is inconsistent with our previous trend…

Leslie Neville

Management

Now on to the Q&A. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow up on the first round. You’re welcome to get back in the queue in the same manner that you did originally. Could you please instruct the callers how to indicate a question?

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from John Zolidis – Buckingham Research John Zolidis – Buckingham Research: A clarification on the guidance, the original guidance did anticipate I believe some loss in receivables or revenues from Value City related to a potential bankruptcy. What I’m wondering is in the revised guidance what is the incremental loss that’s been now factored in with respect to Value City? In addition to that you did keep your full year comp guidance in tact, however, with only one quarter left to go it could be that you’re expecting the fourth quarter to be weaker now than you previously did. I was wondering if you could comment on the extent to which changes in your assumptions for fourth quarter sales trends affected your full year guidance change.

Doug Probst

Management

On the guidance, yes we did contemplate at the beginning of the year and as the year progressed that we would not be receiving the Value City payment in full. In fact, there is still a range of what we expect to collect from them. The bankruptcy court is going to have a say in that. We are collecting some fees from them on a weekly basis. We don’t know how long they will continue to operate or need our services. There is still a range involved with the Value City. As the year progressed we got more realistic as to the prospects of them filing bankruptcy and we continue to evaluate what that risk was. There was a range with that. The other components of our range also considered the severance charges we mentioned and also the performance of the business in general. Throughout the first three quarters the DSW store business has been stronger from a margin perspective but the reduction in guidance is purely an expense driven adjustment. Yes, there are some additions so far and there is some additional risk in the fourth quarter as we look at the landscape for retail spending. We’re not the only ones that are looking at the fourth quarter and seeing a potential downturn. We’re a few weeks into it; obviously a big week coming now and we just see the consumer confidence being weaker and some potential lower spending as well. All that’s baked into the expectations for the balance of the year. The comp range, it may be a little weaker but that’s again built into our range. I hope that answers your question. John Zolidis – Buckingham Research: You mentioned that expenses being at the high end of the range in the previous guidance. In the third quarter I believe you said there was a bonus accrual reversal could you quantify that for us?

Doug Probst

Management

Last year’s bonus reversal was significant because it was a year to date reversal and that equated to approximately 140 basis points of unfavorable comparison to last year. John Zolidis – Buckingham Research: Can you quantify that in dollars how much has been reversed from previous quarters?

Doug Probst

Management

Yes, about $6 million last year in the third quarter was the reversal, $6 to $7 million.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Svezia - Susquehanna Financial

Chris Svezia - Susquehanna Financial

Analyst

First just to touch on the inventory levels, what you’re seeing here and the references you made with regard to being down at the end of the year. Can you clarify is that down in total dollars or down on a per store basis?

Doug Probst

Management

On a cost per square foot basis excluding DSW.com inventory.

Chris Svezia - Susquehanna Financial

Analyst

You expect to be down?

Doug Probst

Management

Yes.

Chris Svezia - Susquehanna Financial

Analyst

When you guys look and talk about your merchandise margins you actually saw some level of improvement. I know in the fourth quarter you’re against a very favorable comparison on the merchandise margin. Should we still anticipate significant improvement year over year or has that in your internal models as the assumptions come down slightly just because you may be anticipate that you might be a little bit more promotional in this environment. You referenced men’s and I would say it seems like in general you seem to be a little bit heavier on the inventory side relative to when you went into the third quarter. Can you clarify how we should be looking at that?

Doug Probst

Management

As far as the comparisons in the fourth quarter, if you remember our second and fourth quarters last year were depressed merchandise margins to put it lightly. Last year in the fourth quarter we had a 38.7% merchandise margin rate and to your point and to your question, we do expect significant improvement in that merchandise margin line even with a more promotional environment out there. That’s mostly because it was so low last year. We had 600 basis points of improvement in merchandise margin in the second quarter. We don’t expect that kind of improvement but we do expect improvement greater than what we had in the third quarter for sure.

Chris Svezia - Susquehanna Financial

Analyst

When you guys talked about the pricing environment and in the past I think we’ve talked about the 3% to 7% or so pricing inflation on average, can you talk about the success you’re having in terms of passing that on, it started obviously in the third quarter but obviously continues into the fourth quarter and does that pressure continue obviously as you go into 2009? Maybe just talk about what you’re doing to maybe offset that pressure. Debbie Ferrée: As you remember in the last earnings call we talked about the increases out of China being at a range of 3% to 7% they actually came out at 7%. We’re not actually seeing any more pressure on the cost right now. As a matter of fact we’re hearing from the market is we may see that going down a little bit. We may see some prices pulling back and going a little bit lower right now. We’ll learn more about that once we get to the December show. Some of the advantages that we do have though looking forward as we mentioned to you before we’re looking to try to incorporate an FOB initiative into our costing model which means we’re going to try to take advantage of opportunity to take possession of the goods across the water in China so we can better control our deliveries and lower the cost a little bit. Those initiatives are just in the very preliminary stages and I have nothing to report to you right now. We are having success with the manufacturers we’ve been working on. As far as the last part of your question is this really impacting customer and are we passing it on to the consumer. We actually have been able to control the cost increases. Right now not seeing them go any higher. As a matter of fact, we may be able to pull them back a little bit lower. It’s interesting what’s happening in the core product. We’re trying to maintain our strong value proposition and sharp price points there where we’re not getting any kind of pricing pressure at all is on the fashion product which tends to be more impulse and less price sensitive. I think the balance of those two components are going to make it easy to continue to pass value to the customer and I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of pressure there.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from David Mann – Johnson Rice David Mann – Johnson Rice: In terms of the workforce and expense reductions you’ve taken can you give us a range of how much the savings will be and how much should we expect in the fourth quarter and subsequently in next year?

Doug Probst

Management

As far as an annualized basis we expect the range of savings to be $10 to $15 million on an annual basis. The reason that range is pretty broad is that we’re still looking about what’s the best way to efficiently operate the business and hopefully keep that to the high side of that savings. As far as the fourth quarter is concerned, there would be some savings for the people are no long here. It’s not nearly enough to offset the severance charge that we have to take. David Mann – Johnson Rice: In terms of what you’re paying on occupancy expense can you give a sense with all of the likely store closings and pressure on rents that should happen that we’re hearing is starting to happen is there any opportunity there for you on some of your older stores?

Doug Probst

Management

Yes, the opportunities come up occasionally and as you know our model helps us to avoid many losses in stores. There are very few stores that operate at a loss or that don’t generate cash. We have taken a few impairment charges over the last couple quarters and perhaps may take another one in the fourth quarter depending on how the sales trend out. There are some opportunities. There are some kick outs that we are pursuing and maybe executing to either renegotiate or just kick out of our leases so there will be some opportunity for us but right now there’s no quantity as to what that’s going to equate to.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jeff Black – Barclays Capital Jeff Black – Barclays Capital: On the $0.13 drop in guidance in 4Q how much of that is due to the severance fees and the uncollectible fees from bankruptcy can you tell us that?

Doug Probst

Management

The majority of it. Jeff Black – Barclays Capital: Is that $0.12, $0.11, $0.10?

Doug Probst

Management

We collected a little bit of it. We anticipate to collect some of it. As I said in the script we expect to absorb the majority of that remaining balance. We don’t expect to be paid much through the bankruptcy process. We’re going to pursue it strongly but I would say the majority of our reduction is due to that. There is some from the severance and is some because of the falling sales going into the fourth quarter although we’re not necessarily predicting that final yet. I would say the $0.13 drop the majority of it is due predominantly due to the Value City changes. Jeff Black – Barclays Capital: Are you still thinking that ’08 is a peak year for SG&A or do we have another layer to add next year? Where’s that put us as we look to next year in terms of your ability to get some leverage on your expense structure. What kind of comp you think you need for the model?

Doug Probst

Management

It’s going to come down to our comp expectations and I don’t see unfortunately a robust comp year in 2009. We’re not giving a lot of guidance in 2009 but not many people out there are expecting a robust retail year. I would expect as comps remain flat to down that SG&A will likely increase. We’re doing all we can to mitigate that and as we said way back when to leverage this model we would need about 2% comps so if we could achieve a 2% comp that may be where the leverage starts to happen. That all depends on where we come out in 2009 but we are planning conservatively so we can mitigate that increase in SG&A rate.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jeff Mintz – Wedbush Jeff Mintz – Wedbush: On your store opening guidance reduction can you talk a little bit about what you’re seeing in terms of are opportunities just going away because centers aren’t opening or they’re being pushed out or is this more based on your decisions to pull back on openings?

Doug Probst

Management

A little bit of both. We’re always going to keep to our internal hurdle rate and based on the co-tenancies and the locations that we’re being served up there’s a lot of opportunities with retailers going out. If there are not right co-tenancies and it doesn’t meet our internal hurdle rate we’re not going to take that deal. We just realistically think that there’ll be 10 to 15 deals that we’ll want to open next year. If the right location with the right co-tenants, the right size, meeting the internal hurdle rates we’ll open more. We just don’t realistically think those opportunities are going to be there for us. Although there are a lot of retailers dropping out and there may be some more opportunities presented to us but at this stage we believe 10 to 15 is the appropriate estimate. Jeff Mintz – Wedbush: In terms of the inventory and how you’re getting there are you seeing the need to cancel orders in order to achieve your inventory goals or is it more just slowing down deliveries. How are you getting there on inventory? Debbie Ferrée: First of all as we have said on the past few earnings calls inventory management is critical to us so I think what I would tell you is we are constantly aware of matching the inventory levels to the sales. We put backup plans in place on cancelable backups and have great relationships with our vendors so we’re working very closely with them to most closely match the receipts that are coming in to the sales and the kinds of styles that are selling right now. It is a combination, we have open to buy liquidity number one but we number two have cancelled backups in the system and number three I’m working with current on order to work with the vendor on bringing the goods in that we think we need and canceling goods that we think that we don’t need so its really a combination of those three things.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Patrick McKeever – MKM Partners Patrick McKeever – MKM Partners: On the athletic shoe buy just wondering if you could talk about how big a buy that is for you, how much that plays into the change in the inventory per store dynamic? Also, how has your athletic shoe business been trending in general? The last part of my question is from a seasonal standpoint is this a good time to be making a big investment in athletic shoes? Debbie Ferrée: Let me respond maybe not in the order that you asked the question but I’ll make sure I cover everything. How big is the athletic buy, let me talk to you about how the business is trending first of all. The business the comp decreased for third quarter was just a little bit worse than the overall comp decrease. It really came out of two things, number one the men’s area is pretty much flat with last year, and it’s trending down about 1%. It’s the women’s athletic piece that was trending down about 7% and what we see here is really a shift from some of the fashion. You remember fashion is about 50% of our women’s athletic business, a shift from fashion into a little bit more technical. That’s the biggest change that we’re seeing right now in athletic. As far as this athletic promotion yes you would say that typically this isn’t the peak of the season of athletic that’s really in the spring season. We do rely in great part to closeouts and opportunistic buys. As we go into the fourth quarter it’s always been how we’ve planned our receipts and its part of our business model. It’s not out of the course of seeing that we really are doing…

Doug Probst

Management

Clearly we’re seeing a little bit different customer on the web than what we anticipated. A little bit more fashion oriented, boots certainly is a much more higher penetration than what we would see in the stores. Of the top 25 sellers online 24 are in the boot category. It’s about 50% of sales. I guess maybe I answered that just as well. Debbie Ferrée: We’re really seeing on the channel, the dot com channel is more of a distortion towards fashion. In every category we’re seeing fashion really outpace more of the core basics business than what we have in the stores. Right now what we’re seeing is a big distortion towards the boot business, significantly higher than what we’re seeing in the stores and I think that’s really how we position the homepage and how we direct the customer into what’s hot. We’re having a great deal of success in the boot category on the site.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Zolidis – Buckingham Research John Zolidis – Buckingham Research: I’m wondering if you can give us the D&A in the quarter and then also could you please provide the e-commerce sales in the quarter?

Doug Probst

Management

I didn’t hear the second part of your question. John Zolidis – Buckingham Research: The e-commerce sales in the quarter.

Doug Probst

Management

We don’t break that out to that detail but we’re still giving that perspective that it’s about 2% of DSW store sales. The annual depreciation is about $35 million at my fingertips I don’t have the quarter depreciation but we’ll get back to you on that. John Zolidis – Buckingham Research: That’s been nine months to date, the $35 million.

Doug Probst

Management

$35 million would be the annual depreciation, nine months to date is $24.4 million.

Operator

Operator

Your last question comes from David Mann – Johnson Rice David Mann – Johnson Rice: Can you give some update on the CEO search please?

Doug Probst

Management

It is progressing and I know there has been a lot of activity but we have not talked to anybody individually but we know its progressing and originally we had thought that it would be a nine month process that’s the input that we got. They’re still thinking that would be the timeframe. I would think sometime in 2009.

Operator

Operator

That concludes the Q&A session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Ms. Leslie Neville.

Leslie Neville

Management

Thank you very much for joining us this morning. As always we will be taking follow up calls at our home office all day today. Again have a Happy Holiday.

Operator

Operator

That concludes the presentation thank you for your participation you may now disconnect. Have a Happy Thanksgiving.