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Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 12, 2026

$82.60

+0.33%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello. Good day, and welcome to Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call. My name is Ellie, and I will be coordinating today's call. Following our speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. In order to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to our host, Maynard Um, Vice President of Investor Relations. Maynard, please go ahead.

Maynard Um

Management

Hello, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. To accompany our prepared remarks, we posted our slide presentation to the Investor Relations section of our website. Before we start, I will remind all participants that you will hear forward-looking statements during this call. These statements reflect the expectations and beliefs of our management team at the time of the call, but they are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. You can find additional information on these factors in the company’s periodic and annual filings with the SEC. Participants should be mindful that subsequent events may render this information to be out of date. We will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures on today’s call. As noted on Slide 3, a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial can be found in the supplemental schedules of the presentation. With that, I will turn the call over to Octavio, who will begin on Slide 4. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. 2025 marked the defining year for Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated. We strengthened our foundation, delivered on our commitments, and most importantly, demonstrated that we are now operating a sustainable free cash flow generator with a significantly more stable and predictable financial profile. We grew revenue, expanded adjusted EBITDA to $485,000,000, and more than doubled free cash flow to a record $239,000,000. These results reflect the disciplined execution, the strength of our lean operating model, and a portfolio increasingly aligned to long-term automation trends in banking and retail. Today, the conversation will center on the durability of our operating model, our ability to generate strong and consistent cash flow, and the opportunities we have to deploy that capital in ways that drive long-term shareholder value. What matters most to…

Octavio Marquez

Management

In retail,

Octavio Marquez

Management

we are encouraged by the momentum we are seeing, particularly in North America where we secured nine new logos, including a win with one of our top targeted grocery accounts. The strategy that established our leadership position in Europe centered around openness and modularity is now gaining traction in North America and significantly expanding our addressable market. Our SmartVision AI solution continues to differentiate our portfolio and generate strong customer interest. At the NRF show, we engaged with more than 800 customers, partners, prospects, reinforcing the growing relevance of AI-driven capabilities and smarter store operation, as retailers focus on shrink reduction, checkout throughput. In services, our focus remains on being the most trusted service provider in the industry. We continue to optimize our service and repair centers globally, improving turnaround times, driving greater consistency and quality, which led to higher uptime for our customers. This, coupled with the completed North America rollout of our enhanced field service technician software, resulted in our best SLA performance of the year. With this, we are strengthening customer loyalty, supporting product pull-through, increasing the lifetime value of our installed base, further enhancing the recurring nature of our revenue. In operations, teams have fully embraced Lean, bringing in new ideas to reshape legacy paradigms of our how and where work gets done. Our local-for-local sourcing and manufacturing strategies are strategic advantages for our company and have allowed us to navigate market challenges like tariffs in 2025 and provide a strong foundation as we enter the new year. By leveraging common platforms and components across our ATM and branch automation portfolio, we are driving greater efficiency, scale, and simplified operations for our customers. Across the company, working capital improvements drove great results. Days inventory outstanding and days sales outstanding again improved year over year. Tom will…

Thomas S. Timko

Management

As we ramp up hiring in the U.S., in anticipation of converting strong service pipeline and further improving our SLAs. From Q2 onward, we expect sequential year-over-year improvement as scale increases and these investments begin to deliver returns. For adjusted EBITDA, we project a range of $510,000,000 to $535,000,000, representing growth of approximately 8% at the midpoint. Turning to free cash flow. We forecast free cash flow in the range of $255,000,000 to $270,000,000, representing roughly 10% growth at the midpoint, supported by continued working capital improvements and disciplined capital allocation. Once again, we expect to generate positive free cash flow in every quarter of the year. Starting this year, we are introducing guidance for adjusted earnings per share. For 2026, expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $5.25 to $5.75, assuming an effective tax rate in the range of 35% to 40%. At the midpoint, this guidance reflects approximately 22% year-over-year growth on a comparable basis when excluding certain noncash, nonoperational tax benefits in 2025 that we previously mentioned. I would also like to point out that our free cash flow per share is significantly higher than our EPS as a result of stronger cash generation than earnings alone suggest. Overall, our 2026 outlook reflects the strong foundation built in 2025, the durability of our operating model that we have put in place, and the strength we are carrying forward. Turning to Slide 13. We ended 2025 in an exceptionally strong financial position with more than $700,000,000 of liquidity, including $416,000,000 in cash and short-term investments and an undrawn $310,000,000 revolver, with a net debt leverage ratio at 1.1 times. Our balance sheet strength is a reflection of disciplined execution throughout the year. 2025 was also a standout year for capital returns. We completed our initial $100,000,000…

Operator

Operator

If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. That is star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from the line of Matt J. Summerville of D.A. Davidson. Your line is now open.

Matt J. Summerville

Analyst

Hi. Thanks. So maybe just start with the kind of the first half, second half cadence a little bit. But more importantly, maybe if you can dig into some of the pluses and minuses we need to be thinking about with respect to Q1 in particular and maybe kind of frame up, realize you might not want to give specific quarterly guidance, but kind of frame up how we should be thinking about the first quarter. Look, so we are starting the year with $730,000,000 in product backlog. Plus the month of January was a very strong order entry month for us as well. So we have really strong visibility into the first half revenues. We have guided our revenue cadence to be approximately 45% in the first half and 55% in the second half, very similar to 2025. So on a quarterly basis, we expect our revenues to flow very similar to 2025, with Q1 being approximately 22% of our total revenue for the year. For adjusted EBITDA, we guided to an approximate split of 40% first half and 61%, second half, which, again, is very similar to 2025. And in Q1 specifically, which I think addressed your question here, we expect adjusted EBITDA margins to be very comparable to 2025, albeit on higher revenue. And is that reflective of the incremental sort of step up in services investments? And is there any way you can maybe quantify the level of organic investment you made in the net service organization in 2025 and what is on tap for 2026? And then I have one more follow-up. Yeah. Sure. So as we talked about last quarter, our investments in service is really comprised of the field service software rollout in North America. That is primarily behind us right now, and…

Maynard Um

Management

Thanks, Octavio. Next question comes from the line of Justin Ian Ages of CJS Securities. Your line is now open.

Justin Ian Ages

Analyst

Hi. Morning all. Hi, Justin. Nice improvement, obviously, in free cash flow. And you mentioned, you know, days sales, days inventory, you know, nine days and four days of improvement. Just wondering if you could give us a little insight into how much improvement do you see left in those. Eventually, you know, you are going to, there is going to be a lower limit. So I just wanted to try to triangulate that. Yeah. So, look, this year, DSO, as you mentioned, down four days. You know, DSO for us ended the year at 50. And, you know, if you keep in mind that each day of DSO represents about, you know, $10 or so million-ish of free cash flow, we think that there is an opportunity for additional days there. You know, we are thinking four to five is kind of what our thought process is as we enter next year. You know? And being able to deliver DSO like we did in Q4 was a result of a lot of hard work. You know, we really ran multiple Kaizens throughout the year to improve our service collections, the down payments relating to our service collections in Q4. So that really helped and manifested itself, you know, in our results. So very proud of the team for being able to execute that kind of delivery. And then DIO, right, the way we calculate it is based on a blend of our product and services. So down, you know, seven seven days year over year thereabouts. You know, each day represents about seven. And we think that there is multiple opportunities and days there as we continue to roll Lean out. And our lead times have decreased pretty significantly as well, so we are turning faster. Think about where…

Maynard Um

Management

Yeah. Thank you, Justin. And if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. That is star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Matt J. Summerville of D.A. Davidson. Your line is now open. Yeah.

Matt J. Summerville

Analyst

Just to follow up, Octavio, I typically ask you to do this. Can you maybe do a regional kind of walk around the world in terms of what you are seeing from a demand standpoint on the ATM side of the business? And then if you can speak in maybe a little bit more detail, it was called out several times, about the strength in particular you saw in order activity thus far in 2026?

Octavio Marquez

Management

Sure, Matt. So I will talk a little bit about ATM. So North America continues to, you know, to be very strong for us. So very positive momentum. Our initial branch automation wins are very significant. So this idea of a closed-end cash ecosystem, the ATM, the teller cash recycler, the automation software controlling both devices, really, really gaining traction and interest from customers. So we see that as a very, very positive catalyst. You know, add to that that every bank has now firmly decided that recycling is the way to go. So we continue to see that traction and those investments that we have made in continuing to improve our recycling capabilities will continue to pay dividends in the future. So North America, we feel very, very, very good about it. In the prior comment around, you know, the tuck-in acquisitions, think about also in North America as we expand our service footprint into the branch. That is an area that we are really looking into it. How do we create a stronger service experience, not just for ATMs, but for the branch. That is our main focus in North America and Europe. How do we move beyond the ATM into the branch ecosystem? So this resonates very well with customers. I would say staying in the Americas, Latin America, you know, which traditionally had been one of the highest growth markets in the world, had a, I would say, a slower year in 2025, as you know, there is a little bit of lumpiness. That is where some big projects that

Octavio Marquez

Management

get delayed or move forward. But, you know, after Q1, we see very very positive momentum in Latin America, and that will be also a catalyst for growth next

Octavio Marquez

Management

year.

Octavio Marquez

Management

Europe, I would say, throughout the year, very positive momentum. We had very strong wins in Germany, particularly in the savings and credit union space, that have now re, you know, are still in the process of refreshing technology. And as you know, those thousands of small customers, yet not one of them is very big, but excited about that. Ten, five ATMs in each, but now fully in refresh cycle. So we are very. Same in France, big market where a lot of consolidation is happening in ATM networks, but we have been fortunate enough to capture the majority of those wins. So we are very excited about Europe. We have a strong team there that is looking for, you know, how do we accelerate and how do they keep moving into the branch ecosystem. And lastly, I would say Asia Pacific, Middle East, you know, probably one of the things I am the most excited right now. You know? Great performance from the team last year. So very, very proud of them. Significant wins across the Middle East, significant wins in different markets in Asia. I think the fit-for-purpose strategy where we have the high-capacity recyclers that are really proved to be a great year for them and, you know, some key markets for us, continues to gain traction. And in India, very importantly, we are now certified to participate in all government and all public government bids. As you know, these are thousands of devices in each bid, which we were not really allowed to participate as we needed to have a certain amount of fit-for-purpose devices in the market, which we have since achieved. I am very excited about ATMs for next year. I think we see steady demand. And more importantly, in our core markets, the U.S. and Europe, we do see the strategy of expanding beyond the ATM and into the branch really proving to be a key differentiator for us.

Matt J. Summerville

Analyst

You. That is helpful. And then, Tom, just so I kind of have it straight, when do you anticipate completing the remaining $172,000,000 of share repo?

Thomas S. Timko

Management

I would say in a similar time frame when we completed the $100,000,000, and then we would expect to be able to go back to the Board, get another program authorized and, you know, potentially larger as well.

Matt J. Summerville

Analyst

Understood. Thank you.

Thomas S. Timko

Management

Sure.

Maynard Um

Management

We will take our final from the line of Antoine Legault of Wedbush Securities. Your line is now open.

Antoine Legault

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for the questions. Up on the banking front, I mean, clearly, a higher mix of recyclers is having a meaningful impact on your banking margins. Could you give us a sense of kind of the opportunity remaining ahead in terms of continuing to grow that mix of recyclers? Like, how underpenetrated are those products or those machines, you know, especially as customers refresh and upgrade their ATM? And then I have a follow-up. Yeah. So, Anton, I would encourage you

Octavio Marquez

Management

to think of this as a continuous cycle. So we have been shipping, you know, roughly 60 to 70,000 machines every year for the past couple years. We do not expect that to materially change anytime soon. I think that the penetration is still, you know, every year, we get a little bit better. So, you know, I think that that will continue to improve. Keep in mind, though, that we are also now ramping up our fit for purpose in other parts in Asia, which tend to have a little bit lower margin profile. But, you know, as Tom said, we expect that even with that small change in margins in Asia, that we will be more than able to offset that and keep the margins at the high level that we have them right now. And to Lean, continue looking for those opportunities to continue expanding margins

Octavio Marquez

Management

you know, every year.

Matt J. Summerville

Analyst

Thank you. And

Antoine Legault

Analyst

and then my last one is, assuming we look at your EPS guidance range for 2026, can you provide some puts and takes as to what might drive your results towards

Matt J. Summerville

Analyst

either the upper or lower end of that range? You know, overall, what are some of the factors

Antoine Legault

Analyst

or parameters that went into your guidance this year? And how should we think about

Thomas S. Timko

Management

Yeah. So if you think about, you know, when we talk to where we ended the year at about $5.59, and we had those two noncash, nonoperational items, right? So if you were to back those out, you get to a number that is probably closer to $4.51. I think one of the drivers next year will be our continuation of our share buyback program. And then obviously sort of the post-tax operating profit will drive that as well. So it is really a combination of both of those items. Right? And when you look at the EBITDA guide, you know, being up from the midpoint 8%, you know, we are continuing to leverage our operating model and grow EBITDA twice the rate of revenues. And free cash flow

Thomas S. Timko

Management

very successful

Thomas S. Timko

Management

fourth quarter and overall year, and we expect to be able to sort of continue that same trend into next year.

Maynard Um

Management

At this time, we do not have further questions. I would now like to turn the call back to Maynard for his closing remark.

Octavio Marquez

Management

Thanks, everyone, for joining today’s call and your interest in Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated. If you have any follow-up questions post the call, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. Thanks again, and have a great day.

Maynard Um

Management

Thank you for attending today’s call. You may now disconnect.