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Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)

Q1 2010 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 27, 2010

$83.02

+0.87%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone and welcome to the Diebold Inc. first quarter financial results conference call. Today’s call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Vice President and Chief Communications Officer, Mr. John Kristoff. Please go ahead, sir.

John Kristoff

Management

Thank you, Jessica. Good morning and thank you for joining us for Diebold’s first quarter conference call. Joining me today are Tom Swidarski, President and CEO; and Brad Richardson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Just a few notes before we get started. In addition, to the earnings release, we have provided a supplementary presentation on the Investor page of our website. Tom and Brad will be walking through this presentation as part of their comments today, and we encourage you to follow along. We have also included non-GAAP financial measures throughout our presentation this morning. Specifically, I refer you to slides 26 through 32, which provide GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations as well as our rationale for the use of non-GAAP measures. A replay of this conference call will be available later today from our website. And as a reminder, some of the comments today may be considered forward-looking statements. Internal and/or external factors could significantly impact actual results, and as a precaution, we refer you to the more detailed risk factors that have previously been filed with the SEC. And now, with opening remarks, I’ll turn it over to Tom.

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone. As you’ve seen this morning we delivered solid operational results despite a difficult comparison for the same period last year. And which we had particularly strong earnings. In fact, we exceeded our internal expectations during the quarter as some business closed sooner than expected and we benefited from a more profitable segment mix. As a result, we’ve gained more confidence in the full year outlook we provided during our last call, and we are reaffirming our guidance for both earnings and revenues for 2010. I am particularly pleased with the continued positive gains in our service and services businesses as we have put a great deal of focus on this area. As the products business begins to stabilize growing and improving our services business further is paramount to our overall success. Our continued investment in infrastructure for services particularly in the Asia Pacific region enabled us to improve service profitability once again during the quarter. We are on track to achieve our goal to improve service gross margin for the third consecutive year. Our competitive advantage lies in our unmatched stability to deliver a full range of service, support and software solutions that work reliably at lower cost and with the flexibility to meet diverse customer demand. That’s the driving force behind our service strategy emphasis in our core businesses and it’s the key to our future success. Finally our net debt position improved by over a $100 million from 31, 2009. Brad will expand on this during his comments but from my perspective, we’ll continue to focus on working capital improvement throughout the year. Now, look at our performance during the quarter and the market environment in the geographic regions. You’ll note that we are now bringing out North America and our revenue disclosure.…

Brad Richardson

Management

Thank you very much, Tom and good morning to everyone. I am pleased with the steady progress we’ve made on a number of fronts. We did a good job of continuing to improve our working capital position and we also made solid progress on improving our gross margin during the quarter, particularly, in the service business. You’ll also note that in today’s earnings report we’ve added more disclosure around global orders and are providing additional detail related to orders and revenue in our North American business. We believe this will provide additional detailed behind one of the most important business segment. We are also now providing a more detailed breakdown of other income and expense. This is consistent with my philosophy of open disclosure and transparency. Finally, you will see that during the quarter we repurchase 337,000 of the company shares. There are 2.6 million shares remaining on our existing board authorizations. As I mentioned during the last call, we feel our shares are in excellent value and we will continue with the measured approach to our share repurchase program. Before we discuss our first quarter results, as with past calls it’s important to note that we have restructuring charges, non-routine income and expense in our financial. We believe that excluding these items give an indication of the company’s baseline performance. As a result, many of my remarks will focus on non-GAAP financial information or a reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP numbers please refer to the supplemental material at the end of the presentation provided on our website. In addition, all results of operations reported today including prior periods exclude discontinued operations. Now let’s turn to our financial results. First I’d like to refer to slide 12 which focuses on first quarter revenue. Total revenue was $619 million down…

John Kristoff

Operator

Thank you, Brad. Jessica before we take our first question, in order to enable everyone to get their questions in today. I’d ask you to please limit yourself to one question and one additional follow-up and then if you have further questions, please feel free to get back in queue and we’ll do our best to get through everyone this morning. So, with that Jessica let’s take our first question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operators Instruction). We’ll go first to Reik Read with Robert W. Baird.

Reik Read - Robert W. Baird

Analyst

Tom, just on your comments on North America. Could you maybe just go through the year and talk about the offsets out there to the large deposit automation programs that have rolled off and I guess if you can give us some magnitude and when these kick in and I guess I’ll think about it in terms of are there other deposit automation incremental services from these large players, are there some larger bank refreshes that may kick in at some point and then maybe a little bit more color when the regional started to kick in from your order commentary?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Okay, let me try and breakdown a few pieces Reik because you asked a quite a few things in there. First of all is I think of it in a three large bucket that make it maybe more understandable for other one, the first would be, we’ve had three aggressive players in North America moving forward with deposit automation and obviously for us they give us very tough comp as several of those began to slowdown if not complete their rollout in the third quarter and little bit in the fourth quarter of last year. If I get below that group and say the next group of the major players that are out there, that would be constitute the next 20 institution so now you are talking about institutions number for through 20. I would say that the level of activity has increased significantly and from that I mean most institutions last year regard to their rolling out deposit automation or not that this tier bank was experimenting in their labs. So they may have had a couple of units and were testing various suppliers. We actively engaged in several rollouts that are beginning as well as pilot that constitute in the terms of 50 to 75 units. So that’s much more than just a couple in a lab or one or two in the cafeteria so to me that was a pretty solid movement forward. Some of those actually want to begin rolling out several hundred in a second half of the year. Some want to begin their pilots in the second half of the year but the fact that we have moved from what I would call the lab and prototype environment and the testing and certification of software and writing all that software into second half of…

Reik Read - Robert W. Baird

Analyst

And would the deposit automation with these larger players, does that suggest that there is a bigger services backlog just from that alone?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Yes, somewhat, yes it does. It also I guess on the bigger players would mean, all institutions as they move into a technology I mean we generally request their technology every say seven years with some of the biggest players I mean they begin this rollout five years ago and so as such are coming up on certain ones, its not going to be the math of rollout that we just experienced but there will be some site that need to be moved, some sites with new software, some sites with new technology and if you recall we’ve developed new technology last year in terms of handling the notes. That was the one area I was most uncomfortable with our capability and while in deposit automation three quarters of all the transactions are check transactions, being over handled notes important. Well that’s a Diebold developed, a Diebold deliver now capability which I think puts us in much better technological stating as well as cost point in terms of being able to work with suppliers. So as you deal with the biggest players, there is just the regular routine business that they would have to do and if they will do to keep their fully trust but it certainly won’t be of those size of magnitude that we experienced over the last four to five years.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Matt Summerville with KeyBanc.

Matt Summerville - KeyBanc

Analyst

A couple of things, first with regard to (inaudible) Tom, you mentioned your ATM orders were down 9% and I thought that was to begin to fairly easy comparison the prior year, recognizing those sequentially you had a pretty good order input quarter in Q4, can you just kind of circle back on that and kind of reconcile how that is supportive of and outlook for growth in the region this year?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Sure Matt. EMEA particularly, our order growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, was significant. So what happened as you might expect with timing issues some of the fourth quarter of 2009 was originally forecasted in 2010 like I got pulled ahead. So from our standpoint, that’s nothing but good news even though from a comparative standpoint it puts us down when you look at the two quarters combined to the two previous, fourth quarter and first quarter, in an aggregate level we would be up in a pretty good position. So we feel very good about the backlog and the opportunities we’re seeing there going forward. Having said that as I said in my comments, of all regions of the world for us, from a competitive standpoint that’s still the area we have to do the most work in and so while I’m confident in terms of our revenue generation for this year and it will be up over the last year, from an overall standpoint we still have a lot of work to do in that region. And so we are strong in particular areas but we can’t say that we are strong across the board in EMEA, so we have got a lot work to do in various western European and Eastern European countries by the same token given where we have come, we now have a better product set, we now have a better organizational structure, we have now better service infrastructure and much like this order with the Citibank Russia. We are finding ourselves after table and winning some meaningful opportunity to yourself. I feel good about the path we are on certainly nowhere near comfortable with the situation we have, or how much opportunity we have to grow in that region and I think you are continuously investing heavily in EMEA.

Matt Summerville - KeyBanc

Analyst

Just one follow up question, with regards to something Reik had mentioned that when you look at your answer to this question, that the next two buckets beyond the big three players you kind of have as you mentioned that institutions for 220 and then literally 100s of that thousands of smaller banks, where are you finding their add with regards to getting the back office technology in place to be able to effectively facilitate the sharing and clearing of the check images.

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Yes, okay Matt. Let me again answer that within the two buckets, because both are different. The bucket I was the most concerned about was really the smaller players, the regional players because they are so dependent upon processors and networks and then (authorizing) the software that links in and as you might recall in 2009 I’ve mentioned that repeatedly that a lot of the deposit automation, even if someone was interested, they didn’t have ability they could buy the technologies from us or someone else but they couldn’t actually get it to run in the fashion they wanted. A lot of that infrastructure has been addressed throughout 2009 and will be addressed in 2010. And we see it first in terms of the software that we were asked to write. So for me, you need to have the software written before you can, you can utilize the terminal in a fashion that is advantageous. So that’s where we are seeing activity in given me good hope that infrastructure is going to be pretty much complete with most of networks here in 2010. Thus that supports the kind of beginning level of order entry that’s giving us some hope kind of going forward. If I move up to tier right below that may be the top three I would say that those folks are prepared. They’ve done a lot of work both in the lab in terms of the software of what was being done as well as the routing of and connectivity into their back office systems and I have confidence in that these. You are moving from the lab environment as I indicated to now what they are calling pilots but when you are piloting 75 or over a 100 ATMs you are not feeling like this beginning of a rollout. And so I feel good about that beginning here in the second half of 2010. And I think it also speaks to really 2011, 2012 with both of those buckets.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Paul Coster with JPMorgan.

Paul Coster - JPMorgan

Analyst

Tom in your prepared remarks, you clearly found very confident about the full year guidance, but as you signed off, I think you said that’s little bit more cautious on the near-term outlook. Can you clarify that statement? I might have misunderstood it.

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

I think that’s accurate I think for us in terms of the full year. In terms of both guidance and revenue, we are confident in terms what we can deliver. The first quarter revenue was inline with our expectations. So our expectations were slightly below with what was without in the market place and certainly from a revenue standpoint when you don’t have the sheer volume of some of the major players rolling with deposit automation there, that means you have lots and lots of other folks that have to make up that mix to fill that bucket and the other thing I would say is certainly in the US bank market as I mentioned, the bank branch construction which has a big impact on our security business is still very, very weak. So we are trying to balance those out and which gives us confidence that what we are going to do but also means that we still have a long way to go here relative to both the revenue and earnings performance as we come to the first quarter. The other thing is we still do out forecast calls and we are trying to gain confidence again after five quarters of not having a lot of confidence in the forecast calls lets say here is what’s really going to happen and we have the kind of visibility we like into the systems, so I would say we are comfortable with how we position that given the backdrop that both the United States and other regions of world there are still some financial crisis and economic crisis issues that people working through even though from a general economy standpoint it feels a whole lot better than it was certainly six and nine months ago

Paul Coster - JPMorgan

Analyst

And Brad, I really welcome the disclosure on the orders which is helpful but of course it’s relative to last year, how do we interpret it relative to what I believe was a pretty strong order quarter last year but also can you give us some sense of the books of bill or some kind of absolute number here?

Brad Richardson

Management

Certainly, the comparison that you do see that we have provided is versus the prior year quarter and I would just reinforce the point that in the fourth quarter of last year Paul we did see very, very significant order improvement again versus the previous year’s fourth quarter in excess of 40% in the financial self-services so its that combination of a strong fourth quarter a moderate performance in the first quarter that ultimately we think positions the company for a second half decent overall revenue growth performance.

Paul Coster - JPMorgan

Analyst

Can you share book-to-bill by any chance?

Brad Richardson

Management

No I don’t think we can provide that at this point Paul.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to Zahid Siddique with Gabelli & Company. Zahid Siddique - Gabelli & Company: I have a couple of questions first, last week NCR your competitor reported and what they said was that the orders in Asia Pacific were approximately 25% and I think you said down 25% and they also said Europe orders were up 15% and you said down roughly 9% or 10% I am trying to see where is the disconnect, do you have a feel, are you possibly losing share or do you have a feel why there may be this disconnect?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Yes, I think first of all you are comparing apples and oranges but these are the first and that what we are talking about really is the self-service, they are talking about kiosks and entertainment and retail and a whole bunch of other things. So I guess the real issue that we are talking about is, and I can explain our issue relative to self-service but certainly can’t compare it to something that’s kind of amorphous in that regard. From our standpoint in terms of self-service, again I think the answer is more focused on the fourth quarter I mean you need to look at our fourth quarter and our first quarter kind of combined because our fourth quarter was so large I think Asia Pacific alone was up over 50% and EMEA was up 20 some or 30 some percent and the Americas regions was up in like they’re like fashion. So when you combine that with the first quarter, it gives you a little more smoother kind of alignment of comparison. So again, I think we’re comfortable with kind of where we are at given compared to fourth quarter was in, how much of our fourth quarter was actually in the first quarter, forecast originally and that moved on. So again, I view that as positive news even though it makes a little lumpier when you look at it. Zahid Siddique - Gabelli & Company: And I think the numbers of NCR gave and the ones that I shared what’d be ATM orders but you’re saying it’s mainly timing and you’re not seeing any sort of shares last to NCR or other competition?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

No, I think when you look at kind of our results, so you look at again the fourth quarter combined with our first quarter we’re very confident in our position in all of those markets. Zahid Siddique - Gabelli & Company: Okay and then my next question is on new products. You’ve talked about deposit automation, are there other products that what the nationals, well that the Nationals and regionals could go to next once I guess as this thing ramps up so what’s next after deposit automation?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Okay, so I would say the first issue Zahid relative deposit automation is for deposit automation is probably still another four or five years from completion. So there is a lot of work we have to do on deposit automation. All around the world and specifically in the United States because I’ve mentioned before, really have may be three institutions and may be a total of 35,000 ATMs in the Unites States that deposit automation, our expectation is that somewhere between 50% to 75% of all these banks our expectation is that somewhere between 15 , 75% of all the bank owned ATM’s may have deposit automation over the five year period, so they are still 100,000 or very large number that deposit automation is going to impact. I said second thing would be really the movement in terms of integrated services and by that I mean not every big bank wants everything that we talk about relative to outsourcing but the ability to monitor, the ability to understand remotely what’s happening, those are all key issues where those are very complex software solutions that I think for well situated for as we move forward, so I think those would be the areas would be kind of the immediate areas people are going to be evaluating them looking at as you rollout this sophisticated technology uptime becomes that much more important or liabilities that much more important and if you have downtime you need to have that minimize and being able to remotely diagnose it or fix it is critical. So, everything we build in kind of what I would call Brazil relative to those competencies and capabilities, we are bringing to the United States in other parts of the world and think we have world class solutions. Zahid Siddique - Gabelli & Company: Okay and lastly what are you seeing on pricing across your various regions?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Okay, for our pricing standpoint, my general comment would be I think fairly stable. I break it into two buckets, you’ve got products and you’ve got your service and services. The product bucket is more sensitive to price invent service and services on a grand scale standpoint in that, a lot of times you have a major bank or a significant player in any region of the world will make a lots of order, two, three, 400,000 ATM’s, it is a price competitive situation and I think we all face that in most regions of the world, probably the region that always has been the most price sensitive is the Asia region as we got the India and Indonesia and other regions there but I understand any shift or change in that make up here and I think the good news is with our strategy relative to outsourcing and integrated services as you add and fumble services together there is less focus on the hardware price and more focus on a total value proposition which really again place to our capability and our competency. So that’s where we would want to continue to move the market to and that said certain institutions and we feel good about that.

Operator

Operator

We go next to Gil Luria with Wedbush Securities.

Gil Luria - Wedbush Securities

Analyst

Could you give us a little bit of more a detailed update on the cost cutting on the $200 million program where we are today, how much do we still have left in 2010, 2011? And you are talking more about reinvesting it, what percentage of the gains that we still have will be reinvested versus flow to the bottom line.

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Okay, I will start and then Brad can fill in if I miss certain pieces. In essence Gil to the year we had I think about $35 million in our sites relative to smart business 200. It has been kind of our perspective all along, it’s probably about 50% give or take a percent or two in terms of reinvesting versus dropping the savings. And I think we are on track for that this year. We feel good about the pipeline of project we have in place. And we are working both spaces in terms of direct and indirect spent in terms of what we are focused on taking cost out. When you talk in terms of R&D the two areas I would say the two primary areas we have got focus on has to do with continued development with the deposit automation technology and services infrastructure and software and they kind of go hand-in-hand and you may see Gil I guess the number would probably in neighborhood of $5 million to $7 million, through the course of the year in terms of R&D, is that right?

Gil Luria - Wedbush Securities

Analyst

$2 million in the first quarter.

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

About $5 million to $7 million somewhat in that range, $7.5 million in terms of probably increased focus on R&D and those of these are kind of the primary or it will be software specifically on power software, the second would be the services infrastructure of which the software helps facilitate and also monitoring kind of software that goes within the services infrastructure and then really deposit automation to continue the development of those solutions and build out of improvement in terms of quality and taking cost out of that.

Gil Luria - Wedbush Securities

Analyst

And then for 2011 how much do you have left?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

I think its $30 million, Gil.

Gil Luria - Wedbush Securities

Analyst

And that will get you to the 200 overall?

Unidentified Company Speaker

Analyst

Yes, that gets us to 200, that’s correct.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to Michael Saloio with Sidoti & Company Michael Saloio - Sidoti & Company: The growth you are seeing in integrated services sounds encouraging especially internationally you said you had a $100 million base, you had a $20 million in this quarter. Could you just give us a little more detail about may be which one of these contracts is worse like the one you announced in Russia as far as revenue contribution in margins and how much of the growth in that business is coming from North America versus international?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Yes, I will try to answer that in some pieces because I think we give you some dimension to it. The size of these contracts varies dramatically and it varies by how big the network is, how many units you are talking about and the other thing that here is when we talk about this contracts that we call them total contract value because generally speaking these are three to five year contracts, most are tending to be towards the five year level. So even though you may have a contract value picking numbers that $20 million or $10 million, that’s spread out over five years. So because the services that we are rendering, we are going to render those for five years, thus we recognize the revenue over that period of time, depending on if they refresh their hardware piece more of that may come in year one but we think about it in terms of a five year bucket thus you end up with some of that from every quarter being a backlog in the future quarters and the future years. So that’s why we like the business, its very recurrent, its sticky and it allows us to really help the bank focus on really improving their overall operation and how they run that and solve bigger problems rather than getting into a price discussion on the price of two ATMs. So most of the business today in the United States let me start there is with smaller institutions. So these are institutions may be with anywhere from three or five ATMs up to 50 or 100, that’s kind of the sweet spot that we are after relative to this. Outside the United States they tend to be larger. So the institutions of Brazil were very large and…

Brad Richardson

Management

Yeah, Michael. I just point out again go back to our priority uses for cash and for our free cash flow which again we think this year will exceed $100 million and certainly our priority for that cash is to reinvest back into the business in terms of our capital investment, which is somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million to $60 million. We certainly are looking at modest if you will Bolton type and synergistic acquisition that can help us grow. We’re very, very focused on then returning moneys to shareholders in the form of our dividend which is over $70 million a year and then modest share buyback. So as we look at the environment today, again, we feel confident about the guidance that we have provided, but yet there are still uncertainties out there and therefore we are going to continue with the share buyback program but at a modest rate, I can’t project what that is but you can see in the first quarter we purchased about 337,000 shares. So again, that’s the priorities and the reason that we are being modest here is because again we want to preserve our powder if you will toward for reinvestment back into business as well as maintaining a high level liquidity given the uncertainties that we have in the marketplace.

Operator

Operator

(Operators Instruction). We’ll go next to Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research

Analyst

I want to ask you little bit about your service margins and your thoughts on how sustainable they are for the rest of the year. Obviously you had a really good quarter and I’m wondering if that particular percentage is sustainable throughout 2010?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Yes, Kartik I would say that it is sustainable. First of all, the increase over last year is not sustainable with that level but the absolute number is sustainable. We had some easy comps last year and we had some one time frames that hit so it made the gross margin improvement significant but I think when you go back and look at the last 16 quarters of service gross margin, you’ll see a steady climb in the right direction here, lot of that has to do with productivity training and kind of the investment we continue to make in that which we are doing. Some of that has to do with a little bit of influence now in terms of services starting to play a little bit of a roll in terms of that mix. But overall I feel pretty good about our ability to increase for the third consecutive year somewhere in the neighborhood of percentage point increase. So, we are confident that while you won’t see a 3% variation compared to quarter-over-quarter. We think mid-25 is achievable and doable as we move forward in the space.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research

Analyst

And then Tom, I think you said that some business of course sooner than you expected but then I think you also said revenue was kind inline with expectations. I am wondering how are you referring to that or what was your different type of business you expected closer than you thought?

Tom Swidarski

President and CEO

Yes, I think, in a couple issues in that regard. I mean first of all when we try to look at the size of that comes earlier. It was probably a neighborhood of we probably had $0.04 to $0.05 improvement relative to orders coming in a little bit sooner. When you compare that then with what happened to us in what the devaluation of the currency. I think that number --- it was about $0.04 so it kind of impacted or kind of upset one another there. But again from an overall standpoint feel good about what that meant to first quarter still think we end up with very strong kind of underline performance. And stronger activity levels which we set for couple of quarters now. Then activity doesn’t automatically turn into orders. But the comfort level of that activity now in somebody’s long lead time discussions leading into something meaningful. We are gaining some strength there specifically kind of in the US gives us good confidence relative to the outcome from the revenue and the earnings standpoint this year.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). This thus concludes the question and answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the call to Mr. John Kristoff for any additional or closing remarks.

John Kristoff

Operator

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today’s conference. We thank you for your participation.