Deutsche Bank AG (DB) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary
Deutsche Bank AG (DB)
Q3 2026 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 28, 2026
$33.48
+4.31%
Deutsche Bank AG Q3 2026 Earnings Call Key Takeaways
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Deutsche Bank AG Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q3 2026 Analyst Conference Call and Live Webcast. I am Moritz, your Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode and the Conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. This time, it is my pleasure to hand over to Silke Nicole Super, Deputy Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
AN
Analyst
Management
Thank you for joining our third quarter 2026 results call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website at db.com. Before we get started, let me just remind you that this presentation contains forward looking statements that may not develop as we currently expect. We therefore ask you to take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials. With that, let me hand over to Christian.
CS
Christian Sewing
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Silke, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with a few words on what we believe are the key takeaways today. We are growing particularly where we want to grow. Our asset gathering businesses performed strongly. The Corporate Bank delivered strong growth and our Investment Bank continued to perform well. Revenue mix is improving, with growing commissions and fees and record net inflows and business mix continues to shift to a more sustainable and stable revenue base. And Germany, a vital element of our growth strategy is starting to deliver. With that, let's turn to where we stand on strategy execution on Slide 2. We delivered record performance and strong momentum in the first 9 months of 2026. We grew revenues to €25.5 billion well on track to meet our full year ambition of around €33 billion. We have now completed a large portion of this year's investments and we continue to maintain cost discipline. As planned, we have largely self funded incremental investments with efficiency gains. This enabled us to deliver a record profit before tax of €8.4 billion for the first 9 months of the year along with a record third quarter. Post tax RoTE was 11.5% and our cost/income ratio was 61.4%. Our CET1 capital ratio was 14.0%. We continue to drive business growth while making distribution deductions in line with our 60% payout ratio. We have already completed our second share buyback of the year. bringing total buybacks in 2026 to €1.5 billion Now a few words on our progress on scaling our Global House Bank on Slide 3. We made tangible progress on all 3 levers of our strategy in the first 9 months of the year. We continue to deliver focused growth. Revenues grew by 5% versus last year in line with our planned growth trajectory through 2028. Our focus growth areas contributed nearly 80% of the increase and grew by 6%. Franchise momentum was strong across all businesses with growth rates above our IDD targets. Furthermore, we continue to build business volumes which support future revenue growth. Assets under management rose by nearly a €250 billion year on year to just under €2 trillion supported by record inflows across our asset gathering businesses. Loans and deposits grew year on year supported by broad based business activity. Second, we maintained strict capital discipline Our capital initiatives included further capital accretive actions on non performing exposures and progress with our securitization programs. And third, we made further progress on our scalable operating model. We continue to simplify our processes and made targeted investments in upgrading our infrastructure. The Private Bank reached an important milestone in its technology transformation selecting its first cloud based platform as it moves from 15 banking platforms to just 2. And in IBCM, we have started to roll out FarSide, an AI enabled tool designed to improve efficiency and provide more granular client insights further supporting client experience and engagement. Across all 3 levers, we are driving strong performance across our businesses investing in growth and efficiencies and reinforcing connectivity between businesses. This allows us to deliver the bank to clients for example, by combining coverage across financing investment solutions and product distribution. Turning to Slide 4. All divisions delivered RoTE of 12% or higher while each division increased profit before tax in every quarter of the year. Private Bank net flows reached €17 billion, a record for the private bank with around 2/3 from wealth management. Year to date inflows have already exceeded the full year 2025 level. Client assets increased to €865 billion up €75 billion year to date and well on track toward our €1 trillion target by the end of 2020. Asset Management grew assets under management to over €1.2 trillion with record net flows of €31 billion in the third quarter. The Corporate Bank delivered record quarterly revenues with sustained growth in loans deposits and client activity across every client segment. We delivered strong revenue growth in Germany underlining the strengths of our home market franchise. And the investment bank delivered strong results. FICC revenues were close to the record prior year quarter despite less favorable market conditions And in IBCM, we increased our EMEA market share by 160 basis points year on year. We are also pleased that our global foreign exchange business was awarded World's Best FX Bank at the recent Euromoney awards for the 2nd consecutive year. So our 9 months performance strengthens my confidence yet further that we are on track to deliver on our 2026 objectives. Our franchise business performance and balance sheet have remained resilient despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty across Europe in an already challenging global economic backdrop. We have seen no meaningful adverse impact to date. The path to our 2028 targets and objectives has become clearer as we make progress against our strategic priorities. This strengthened our view that an RoTE of above 13% represents a floor. Last quarter, I highlighted trends which support further upside to our 2028 targets. German reforms and fiscal stimulus AI, savings and investment union, and the regulatory environment. In Germany, we see encouraging signs in the political and economic environment. Reinforced by our client conversations. Reform progress continues with growth competitiveness and investment firmly on the political agenda. Exports, entrepreneurial activity and foreign investment are showing signs of improvement. Corporate sentiment is improving and translating into investments while the Mittelstand remains resilient. We expect German growth to come in ahead of consensus but faster and more decisive government action is needed to sustain this momentum. On regulation, we are encouraged by plans for a legislative package in the first quarter of 2020 to further integrate Europe's banking sector and boost its competitiveness. We also continued to see further upside from initiatives that are largely in our control. particularly technology and process simplification and AI led productivity gains. And we intend to provide further detail on these opportunities with our full year results in January. With that, let me hand over to Raja.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Thank you, Christian, and good morning. We delivered another strong third quarter with net revenues of €8.3 billion a return on tangible equity of 10.6%. Profit before tax was €2.6 billion up 8% year on year with an improved cost/income ratio of 62.4%. Importantly, all divisions contributed to the year on year profit increase, Revenues were up 4% year on year making these 21 consecutive quarters of revenue growth. With noninterest expenses flat year on year, we delivered positive operating leverage. C&O once again contributed positively to revenues this quarter, mainly due to valuation and timing differences, which we expect to partially reverse in the fourth quarter. Let me now turn to revenues in more detail. Starting on Slide 7. We saw strong growth in the private bank materially benefiting from higher net commission and fee income. Asset management also made a strong contribution driven by higher management fees. As promised, the corporate bank delivered both year on year and sequential revenue growth with business volume growth and higher revenues across businesses. Investment bank revenues broadly matched a record prior year quarter. Looking at revenue composition, net interest income demonstrated a solid increase driven by volume growth, and hedge rollover, with trading and other income down year on year. Net commission and fee income performance showed continued strength benefiting from growth in discretionary mandates in wealth management as well as stronger performance in the corporate bank. Overall, our noninvestment banking business represented around 65% of group revenues and increased both sequentially and year on year. Let me now move to NII on Slide 8. NII was solid at €3.7 billion across the key banking book segments and other funding. Deposit related NII continue to benefit from underlying volume growth and the contribution from our hedge portfolio, while loan NII benefited from strong volume growth. For the full year, we continue to expect NII across key banking book segments and other funding to slightly exceed €14 billion As we said previously, benefits from recent rate decisions are expected to come gradually and sequentially becoming more pronounced in 2027, and increasing even further in 2028 and beyond. Reflecting our structural hedging approach. As always, you can find details on the benefits from long term hedge portfolio rollover on Slide 23 of the appendix. Turning to Slide 9, Noninterest expenses declined by 3% sequentially and were flat year on year. Incremental investments included around €80 million of workforce measures mainly reflecting private bank operating model optimization, as well as infrastructure investments. Ongoing hiring in wealth management and IBCM, and the expansion of corporate bank solutions to support our capital light growth agenda. Operating efficiencies mainly through workforce and target operating model measures continue to largely offset these incremental investments. The modest increase in volume related costs included higher fixed pay which was fully offset by lower litigation expenses and bank levies. As we continue to execute our investment plans and efficiency benefits accelerate, we expect positive jaws to become increasingly visible. With that, let me turn to provisions for credit losses on Slide 10. Provision for credit losses was €51 million We continue to take proactive capital accretive actions to further derisk our CRE portfolio which is reflected in our provisions for the quarter. In addition, provisions in the Corporate Bank were impacted by an idiosyncratic event in Asia. Underlying asset quality remained strong with leading indicators showing a stable or improving picture across the majority of our portfolios. As shown in the appendix on Page 25, CRE is the primary driver of the elevated group provision run rate. The run rate reflects the proactive derisking measures and valuation updates on legacy defaulted positions. Our high risk CRE portfolio has declined materially since 2022. In The US, where we have seen the majority of stress the book is down 42% since 2022 and about 20% year on year, reflecting repayments, and our proactive derisking measures. There is no evidence of broader portfolio weakness with the private bank and corporate bank portfolios remain stable and resilient. Our medium term expectations remain unchanged A gradual but steady decline in CRE provisions in 2027, and in 2028, a further improvement in the group provision run rate normalizing at around 30 basis points. Turning to capital on Slide 11. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 14% at the high end of our operating range. Risk weighted assets decreased by €3 billion excluding FX effects of €1 billion. The quarter on quarter reduction was driven by the Investment Bank which carefully contained market and credit risks in a volatile environment. The increase in the other category includes the impact of model simplification efforts. Net income net of deductions for AT1 coupons contributed 43 basis points reflecting strong third quarter earnings while deductions for distributions of 26 basis points represent the 60% payout ratio. The 16 basis points reduction in other includes an immaterial impact from recent increases in government bond yields. Reflecting prudent portfolio positioning and risk management. Note that the majority of our government bond portfolio in the banking book is accounted for at amortized cost and overall, we remain comfortable with our sovereign bond exposure. Looking towards year end, we expect our CET1 ratio to be within our operating range reflecting ongoing business activity and the annual update of our operational risk RWA, reflecting higher 2026 revenues. Let me now turn to divisional performance starting with the private bank on Slide 13. Private bank continued to execute on its strategic objectives and delivered a strong business performance across both personal banking and wealth management. Return on tangible equity rose to 13% while the cost/income ratio improved to 65%. Revenues increased by 8% year on year driven by strong growth in both net commission and fee income, which increased 13% and net interest income, which rose by 9%. Personal banking revenues climbed 6% supported by strong deposit gathering particularly in Germany. Wealth management revenues increased by 10% reflecting higher deposit and investment product revenues as discretionary mandate grew significantly year on year. Continued strong net new asset inflows of €17 billion with inflows in wealth management mainly investment led, while personal banking continue to generate strong deposit flows. Deposits grew 4% year on year supported by successful campaigns amid continued competition in Germany. Strong sequential growth in wealth management lending more than offset the targeted reduction of €1 billion in non-SVA retail portfolios. 180 wealth management hires have joined, well on track towards a target of around 250 by 2028. While the private bank launched a new digital mandates platform for clients in Germany. As expected, non interest expenses increased year on year, reflecting continued investments to support future growth including costs related to workforce initiatives. The increase was partly offset by continued efficiencies from organizational simplification including run rate savings from prior branch closures and workforce measures. As well as lower cost due to favorable episodic items. We expect sequential cost increase reflecting the phasing of our investments. Provisions for credit losses were higher year on year primarily due to non recurrence of favorable prior year model updates while underlying credit performance remained stable. Turning to Slide 14, Asset Management delivered a solid quarter with assets under management surpassing €1.2 trillion for the first time driven by record total net flows and FX movements. Revenues increased 4% year on year, primarily driven by higher management fees. Up 14% year on year supported by higher average assets under management. Performance fees were lower as the prior year benefited from the fees generated through asset realizations in an infrastructure fund. Non interest expenses increased by 5% year on year reflecting investments in strategic growth initiatives and higher volume and share price related compensation effects. Total net flows stood at a record €31 billion in the quarter including €17 billion of long term net flows with Xtrackers being the primary growth driver. Our alternatives business returned to positive net flows supported by €0.8 billion of net flows into our infrastructure products. For further details, please refer to DWS' disclosure on their Investor Relations website. Let us now move to the Corporate Bank on Slide 15. The Corporate Bank delivered a record quarter. Generating its highest ever revenues of approximately €2 billion supported by an increase in commission and fee income the revenue mix. The underlying momentum across the corporate bank is clearly becoming visible. Higher loans and deposits together with the strong client engagement across our businesses continue to drive growth. As a result, revenues increased by 9% year on year, including double digit growth in both net interest income and net commission and fee income. A trend we expect to continue. Corporate Treasury Services and Business Banking both delivered double digit revenue growth supported by business volumes, Institutional Client Services revenue grew modestly reflecting the non recurrence of prior year benefits. In Germany, revenue growth was even more pronounced with a 13% increase driven by higher activity across all client segments. Deposits were €346 billion up 13% year on year and 6% sequentially. Primarily driven by growth in side deposits in corporate cash management. Loans increased 8% year on year and 2% sequentially to €127 billion supported by continued growth in flow and structure trade while the targeted reductions of non-SVA equity portfolios continued. Noninterest expenses remained essentially flat year on year as volume related growth and targeted investments were partly offset by disciplined cost management. Provisions for credit losses increased to €68 million driven mainly by an idiosyncratic event while the quality of the underlying loan portfolio remains solid. I will now turn to the investment bank on Slide 16. Third quarter revenues broadly matched the prior year. Which was driven by a record FIG performance. FICC financing revenues were significantly higher reflecting strong pipeline execution and continued targeted balance sheet deployment across the franchise. Within this, net interest income was slightly higher growth in the book was partially offset by previously discussed margin compression. Big markets revenues were down driven by the non recurrence of a very strong credit trading performance in the prior year quarter specifically within the distressed businesses. Performance across the remainder of the markets businesses was higher year on year with particular strength in our emerging markets business. Moving to IBCM. Revenues were essentially flat compared to the prior year with continued strength in equity origination and further year on year improvement in advisory. This was offset by debt origination where a less robust environment for LDCM more than offset a record quarter for the investment grade business. The IBCM pipeline for the remainder of 2026 continues to point towards an improved revenue performance for the second half of the year. Non interest expenses were 4% lower year on year reflecting reduced litigation bank levies, and certain 1 off items. Partially offset by targeted investments in line with our IDD strategy. Provision for credit losses was €197 million significantly lower year on year. While the prior year quarter was impacted by adverse stage 1 and 2 model changes The current quarter is driven by Stage III provisions in part reflecting the planned capital accretive exits of legacy CRE exposures. Before we move to the outlook on Slide 17, let me recap what I have observed about the franchise as I come to the end of my first year. I am impressed with the resiliency of the FIC franchise We have a complementary and a well diversified business mix. As we saw this quarter, FICC financing did very well in an environment which was not as conducive FICC markets. The corporate bank flywheel effect is now underway. We are gaining momentum even before we see full potential of German growth. The net new asset funnels in both wealth management and asset management are working better than expected. We have seen each quarter bringing record inflows and this is before we see any tailwinds from pension reform or the expected shift towards more investment led behavior in Germany. On expenses, we are delivering on plan quarter after quarter while investing. The CLP headline number reflects decisive actions to derisk and free up capital. And in respect of the CET1 ratio, our operating range reflects the totality of our expectations covering business, and nonbusiness related factors. So before we take your questions, let me summarize how these points shape our full year 2026 outlook. We are on track to deliver revenues above €33 billion assuming markets remain constructive. We continue to expect total expenses of around €21.3 billion reflecting continued investment discipline operating efficiencies and any 1 off items. Excluding the impact of targeted proactive derisking actions and the idiosyncratic event, we expect loan loss provisions to be broadly in line with our guidance. Slightly lower in 2026 compared to the prior year. We remain committed to delivering consistent capital returns and continue to make CET1 capital deductions in line with our 60% payout ratio target. And as Christian said, we will provide an update on progress of our strategy when we report our full year 2026 results. Thank you.
AN
Analyst
Operator
Thank you, Raja. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
OP
Operator
Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. And the first question comes from Tarik El Mejjad from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
TM
Tarik El Mejjad
Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead
Hi, good morning, everyone. Christian, you mentioned few times this year that you are a beat and raise story. We have seen the beats actually for the last 2, 3 quarters. Not yet the raises. So I have 2 questions that in that context, understanding that we are actually coming to the end of this 2026 transition year. So first on the revenues, I mean revenue growth was solid in the quarter with corporate bank and private bank as the key highlight. As you mentioned, the FICC was also resilient. We are tracking to deliver above €33 billion if we analyze even assuming a harsh seasonality in Q4. Yet you also flag again your ability to beat the 33. How much visibility you have for the rest of the year And why did not you feel comfortable upgrading the guidance already in Q3? Maybe you can run us through your outlook for the different divisions and particularly on NII. And the second question is on costs. To me, that is the key highlight really of this result season and been the case in Q2 and since CMD actually started. You still guide though for SEK 21.3 billion, which implies a significant increase in Q4 costs actually even a downside to consensus of around €100 million So are you intending to reinvest most of the cost savings As I think you commented in Bloomberg this morning that Tech and AI can let you raise ambitions further. There is a room to beat your latest guidance and will be a source of upgrades? Thank you very much.
CS
Christian Sewing
Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, Tarik. Thank you for your question. And let me start with the revenue side. And Raja will take over on the on the cost commenting. Look, first of all, you said it right, beat and raise. And by the way, it is not only beat, it is race because we just increased the revenue guidance. So you see that we are also raising. So we are not only beating, but we are obviously based on the foundation, which we have achieved over the first 9 months, we are very confident that from the around 33%, we can clearly go beyond the 33% and above the 33 And what gives us the confidence, it is actually all 4 businesses And I think this is the nice story. Which we outlined in the IDD and where we are really tracking quarter by quarter in each and every business, that we are actually firing on all 4 cylinders of this bank. And in particular, in the let me put it this way, the more stable business, as we always call it, the private bank asset, management and corporate bank, Obviously, all the inflows we see, be it in deposits, be it in assets under management, but also the lending growth which we can see in the corporate bank, obviously, provides us with a very good trajectory and with a very good view already for Q4 but also actually for 2027 where revenues are going. And despite the fact that Q4 is always, so to say, a special quarter, And from an investment bank point of view, it is always a quarter which tends to be a bit softer than the first 3 quarters. We do believe, that in particular, the other 3 businesses will compensate. And to be honest, in the investment bank, everything I can see after the first 3 to 4 weeks despite challenging markets, is actually that are quite stable year over year and that we can have a very satisfactory quarter, too. So the momentum in the private bank in terms of deposit gathering and growth in under management is continuing. Obviously, we are benefiting from that, what we have collected already in the first 9 months. In the asset management, the fourth quarter is usually a better 1 because also of the performance fees. The corporate bank, we have seen this really nice turnaround already in Q2, now the record quarter in Q3. I cannot see any reason why this is not sustainable for Q4. And then I think a pretty stable investment bank performance. Which gives us, sort of say, all the visibility that we will be clearly above €33 billion So that is why we increased now the guidance. On the cost side, I would hand over to Raja But let me be clear, full focus on cost discipline. I think we have shown it and demonstrate for the last 3 quarters that is ongoing. And Roger will give you a little bit more detail on how we plan for the fourth quarter.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Yeah. Thanks, Christian, and thanks, Tarik, for the question. I think, Tarik, if you remember, when we did the IDD, 1 of the key changes that we made in the way we look at cost is to essentially give guidance around our total non interest expenses rather than on an adjusted basis, which means the various components of run the bank, but investments, operating efficiencies, any 1 offs, they are all considered in that guidance. And, obviously, things can come at different times. Operating efficiencies, we generally tend to have a pretty good view on. Investments we make according to our plan based on the opportunity that we do. And, obviously, investments and other items also include severance charges. So we took it into totality what the year would look like and so therefore, we sit here today We think that is still reasonable. I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks on the private bank side, we will still be lighter this quarter versus from the investment perspective. Versus what we expect in the fourth quarter. We think we have a few more actions we can execute in the fourth quarter that would actually be of benefit to us 2027 and 2028 and give us further upside. So, look, I think the plan would be if we do end up doing better and we are able to make the investments that we want to make at a lower cost, I do not think there is that much more for us to pull into this quarter. If we end up being better, then we end up being better. And not going to try to squeeze in artificially more investments into the quarter. But I think where we sit today in October, we think we have a reasonable plan towards the 21.3 for the full year. But obviously within a small margin that could move 1 way or the other. But as I said in my first call, our goal would be to undershoot that 21.3 and not overshoot that 21.3.
TM
Tarik El Mejjad
Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead
Perfect. Thank you very much both.
OP
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
CH
Chris Hallam
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead
Yes. Morning, everyone. Actually, first question is just a bit of a follow-up to that. Question from Tarik. You are comfortable on that €21.3 billion for this year. But I guess, how do we think about as a base case for next year? I appreciate you probably want to spend more time on this in Q4 results. But how should we balance that incremental investment the normal sort of inflationary impacts or volume related growth against the accelerating efficiency benefits that you should be seeing? In other words, if we try and pull all that together, is a natural course or the natural sort of outlook for OpEx next year that it goes down, that it goes sideways, or that it continues to grow in line with the business? And then second, again, as you head into next year, it feels as though you are approaching quite an interesting sort of fork in the road in terms of capital allocation. You have got improving and strong capital generation. That potentially creates scope for distributions above the 60% payout ratio. But at the same time, think you are seeing attractive opportunities to deploy capital into growth and you have become more confident that 13% RoTE by 2018 representing a floor. So I guess how much of the potential upside requires additional capital deployment and RWA growth? Versus upside that can be delivered while simultaneously increasing shareholder distribution, i.e., is the outlook you are seeing, the stronger outlook you are seeing becoming more capital intense or more capital generative? Thank you.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Yes. Thanks for the question. Let me just kind of take you remind you of the baseline IDD plan if you were to remember that. We had talked about a €1.5 billion or so of incremental investments of which we said €900 million were going to be in 2026, which was the really the big investment year, and they were gonna taper off in the outer years But the €2 billion of productivity saves, they were gonna obviously ramp up in the other direction. So if you were to just take those 2 things, dynamics into play, you would expect that our run rate should be better next year versus what we are. Where we are today. So that so that is 1 perspective I would give you. You can you can look at our the way we have managed expenses through the first 3 quarter, which means that we have pretty much offset the investments with operating efficiencies, and we do not see that trend slowing down in the future, which means that we actually have established a pretty good and lower run rate base for the year. So that. that is the way I would think about it. But that is versus the IDD plan. But we have also been very clear that we believe we can we can and we will do better than the IDD cost trajectory for up till 2028. And as Christian mentioned and I said in my prepared remarks, we would like to give you guys a fully and a wholesome update in on our on our new trajectory and a new and improved trajectory January so we can lay out the sequencing, where we see the opportunity coming from, and the and the operating rhythm going forward. But, yes, but in terms of your question, I think, if you can only have. You only have to look at the way we had planned our investments, were front loaded and our savings which were ramping up to give you a little bit of sense of what we expect for 2027 and 2028. And sorry. On your second question about distributions, look, we are fully committed to operating within our operating range. I think within our operating range, we have tremendous opportunity to deploy, for our businesses as you can see this quarter despite being using a little bit less than. Less RWA planned. We had great in the FIG financing business, a great loan gathering in our corporate bank. So, yes, Christian, we would eventually within the cycle between now and 2028, we will given our strong earnings capacity and capital generation we will be at a point where we will have to make those decisions. And I think my perspective would be for now, what we have is pretty self sufficient. But, again, we are seeing tremendous opportunities in our corporate bank as well as our private bank to deploy balance sheet. But at the same time, that is something that we are considering as part of our full plan progress update in January to lay out our capital path going forward as well as our expense path going forward. So you can expect that we will, update you all in January. But for the moment, for the rest of the year, we believe we are comfortably within our range, and we will finish the year that way. And in terms of the capital return cadence, I think we would like to, which subject to supervisory approval, have a cadence that is pretty predictable. And consistent with what we have done in the first 2 buybacks this year. As you know, we have already done a €1.5 billion and if all. Everything goes well, we would like to keep that cadence subject to all their normal caveats. Okay. Thanks very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Anke Reingen from RBC. Please go ahead.
AR
Anke Reingen
Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead
Yes. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Just firstly, on the Corporate Bank, obviously, you had very strong trends in Q3. And you previously talked about exit to mid- high single digit which now based on the Q3 performance looks somewhat conservative. So just thinking, is, should we think Q4 guidance is conservative and the trend can continue sequentially increase? Or is there anything in Q3 you would sort of like highlight as a as a bit of a 1 off that we cannot extrapolate I think you said on the fee growth, you feel really encouraged about double digit I think you talked about this a lot at the Investor Day, but maybe if you can just underpin a bit about what drives this double digit fee growth? And then just secondly, sorry, on the loan losses, when you say underlying they should be down. How should we think about it on a reported basis, loan losses in 2026? Thank you very much.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Sure. Let me take the question on Corporate Bank. Look, we were very convinced. As you know, we had been telegraphing it quite a bit in advance that we that the second half of the year, will end up at mid to high single digits and frankly speaking we outperformed our own expectations. And there. No. There are no 1-timers in this 9%. It is actually solid underlying. The right underlying operating performance and we believe based on where we are today that we should be able to carry the same revenue momentum into the fourth quarter. So we do not necessarily see a dip down in the revenues, in the next quarter. I think we should be able to match what I said is already a record performing quarter for the corporate bank. The reason I have that much conviction in that is because 1, it is coming from all 3 things. We have NII, that is up both because of strong deposit gathering and loans. And then we have increased our fee year over year by 13% on the back of record trade finance and lending core and structured trade products. So that gives us a lot of confidence that this trajectory for us is now there to continue. And just to remind you, and I am sure it is not. It does not need to be said, this is before we see the full, German fiscal stimulus play out. This is before we start seeing the full impact of the hedge resets that are being done. And, obviously, as I mentioned for. Based on our hedging strategy, it comes gradually and sequentially and then over time exponentially. So that gives us a lot of confidence we have now put the corporate bank squarely on a clear growth path. So I would stop there, Anke. On that.
CS
Christian Sewing
Chief Executive Officer
Can I just add 1 further? Because Raja rightly said it is before the German stimulus is really kicking in. Though we are now finally seeing the first impacts, and it goes into the economy, which is good. And secondly, obviously, we also see that we have an opportunity here in the market with what is happening in Germany. And we see actually in Q3, the first real positive developments. And therefore, I would actually expect that this is going to be even more emphasized in the following quarters.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
I think your next question was about CLP in Corporate Bank. I have mentioned before that the number for CLP, the corporate bank is reflective of a idiosyncratic event in there, which we have fully reserved for now. And we. If anything, we are on a. You know, we have a recovery potential, but that remains to be seen. Interesting enough, our underlying usage of the corporate bank CLP was actually better than what we had planned. So I think as we see the trends for the corporate bank, they are actually very promising despite what everything else is going on in economy. The book is been held pretty well. Okay.
OP
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
NP
Nicolas Payen
Analyst · Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have 2 please. The first 1 would be on the IB And just could you help us maybe reconcile what we as a strong fixed financing revenue growth with only a slightly higher financing NII. Just wanted to understand how much reflects recurring income versus transaction related revenues. And to what extent, we have, a sustainable growth in financing. The second question will be still on NII. And just want to see how we should think about the trajectory in 2027 beyond the hedge contribution in particular in relation to deposit pricing and loan margin, how does it evolve And how much support you expect actually from volume growth going forward? Thank you very much.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Sure, Nicholas. Look, think on the FICC financing side, you have to think about it from 2 perspectives. We have a great volume growth because our pipelines are very strong. Which is partially offset by the previously discussed spread compression. We had talked about it at the investor Day. We had talked about it at the beginning of the year. there is certainly spread compression versus prior year. But that said, it is still accretive to us because the volumes are more than offsetting the spread compression. And in fact, what we had modeled from a spread compression perspective and the timing of when these refinancing would take place, that they have actually taken place earlier than what we expected. So that is why you see a little bit of a divergence between the volume growth versus the underlying NII growth? So that is. That dynamic is playing out. But, thankfully, it is playing out if not in line, but slightly better than what we had anticipated when we had put our plans together for 2025.
OP
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Tom Hallett from KBW. Please go ahead.
TH
Tom Hallett
Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Firstly, just what is your kind of data center AI related credit exposure? And maybe what was that 1 year ago? And I guess the same question on the revenue side of things given the apparent slowdown. And then on the German macro, what are you seeing given all the rate moves and everything else that is kind of going on? And how is that reflected in your numbers? Is it positively impacting your business or negatively impacting it maybe relative to your expectations from a few months ago? Thank you.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Sure. I will take the AI related exposure or the data center exposure, however you wanna call it. it is actually not changed in quite a bit since we last time we spoke, it was sub €10 billion It is still sub €10 billion The it is still primarily focused on single tenant long term leases, 70% of it is in The U.S. High loan to value. Low loan to value. I am sorry. So nothing has changed there. We obviously have a hedge program that goes with our overall exposure. So I would say, in the end of the day, it is not dramatically different. We have continued to participate selectively. In all these deals and not much honestly to add on that front.
CS
Christian Sewing
Chief Executive Officer
Tom, on the on the German macro, I would say, that we see as I tried to say before, encouraging signs actually when it comes to the broader economy. Look, the government has revised the growth rate to 1.3%. We, as Deutsche Bank, it around 1 slightly above 1%. We actually see the German growth in 2027. Based on the fiscal stimulus, also based on the private investments, which are now coming in. At around 1.5% or slightly higher in 2027. And if the government is continuing with its reforms and restructuring, to be honest, I think we can see even bigger growth in 2028. That is clearly an upside also for us. Why? Because, we can already see it in the corporate bank, that the stimulus is actually, developing and translating into real business. And secondly, the real game changer, in particular for the private bank and for the asset management, is the pension reform. From everything I see and I hear you have also seen and heard all the comments from last week's German Invest Summit in Berlin. But also from our Made for Germany initiative. The government is absolutely determined to go ahead with the pension reform. There might be the 1 or the other slight change it comes to, so to say, the years, you need to pay in, whether it is 45, 43 But the capital markets component, in particular, in pillar 1 will remain That will be part of the reform. And that is a game changer for on the investment side. We have seen, I think, because of the discussion already, a pretty good momentum in our business. But that will even be much better when this reform is decided. And again, I do believe that this will go to parliament at the end of Q4. Be then decided. And then we have a quite different environment in Germany. So overall, I have to say, also looking at the results of the Invest Summit last week, that there is not only a renewed interest but in particular, what is happening in this world that there is, sort of say, even more interest in Germany and in the stability And therefore, compared to the end of Q2, I am net more positive on Germany. And again, we can see it and start to see it in our numbers.
TH
Tom Hallett
Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead
that is great. Thank you. Just a quick follow-up to maybe the first question. Could you give us a sense of the revenue of the AI kind of data center stuff? You know, is it meaningful contributor to your earnings? Is it just you know, Just help us give us a sense on that.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Yeah. So look, I think we mentioned last time around that we participated in the 3 large tech that happened in the second quarter. But clearly, as you know, we are not the lead left bank, so you can think about that our contribution, we are meaningfully for the and we like that. But we are. We do not have a dependence on the AI revenue stream to keep our support or IBCM businesses. So when I give the guidance, that IBCM is gonna be higher, second half will be better than the first half, The AI is a component of that, but we do not have a massive or sole dependency. In our fixed financing book also, we had a growth but there the growth is also pretty well diversified, not concentrated on AI. So, yes, it is it is it is helpful. We wanna obviously be in that space selectively, but it is not something that is gonna make or break for us.
TH
Tom Hallett
Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead
Great. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Giulia Miotto from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
GM
Giulia Miotto
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. And a question on deposits in Germany. If I look at your numbers in the private bank and in the corporate bank, deposits are up quarter on quarter. But I do not know how much of that comes from Germany. And there is a big debate on you know, new entrants, more price competition, new players increasing the rates? So can you give us a sense of how your deposit growth looks like for Germany specifically? And if you see any pressure at all towards this new players that are paying more? Then a second question on pension So Christian, I hear your optimism And I understand that on the basis of volumes. But on the basis of profitability, we have seen really fierce competition on margins, especially from platforms that essentially are offering no fees. So how do you think about the business opportunity in terms of revenues and bottom line from these pension reforms because it does not seem as material as we could have thought a few months ago. And then sorry, just a quick follow-up on cost of risk. So for Q4, consensus is closer to €400 million And do you. Shall we, instead, read that it will probably be a number closer to what you printed in Q3, so more like €500 million on provisions. I just need a quick yes or no answer. Thank you very much.
CS
Christian Sewing
Chief Executive Officer
Giulia, let me start with the deposit question and also the investment And then Raja can add and also go for the provision question. Look, despite the competition we have in Germany, and to be honest, Giulia, we have seen that for the last 37 years since I have been in banking that competition is highest in Germany. And therefore, I am not that worried about each and everybody who is entering the market because trust and long term relationships is the key item how you actually overcome it, and that is what we see. The biggest in the private bank, the biggest driver of our deposit intake is actually Germany, and it is a personal bank in Germany. We went with a campaign. And honestly, we are not providing rates which are in line with new people and new entrants new market entrants. But in our view, with fair, and for ourselves, I would say, absolutely also attractive conditions. And we saw a record Q3 quarter in terms of deposit intake in the personal bank. And that is usually actually with existing clients and where we have new clients, we also see actually that with our additional products which we are offering, and with the relationship approach we have, we can turn these new deposits into long term business. And I think that is the secret of the success. it is not about gaining the next deposit for 4 weeks, and then we are losing it. We do not wanna have these hoppers And actually, we can see that with the number of new clients, which then stay with Deutsche Bank and where we are doing out of deposits also other investment business, that this is really the success. And therefore, trust, credibility, of course, also all our investments in the technology that you know, we are enabling our clients, to approach us in a digital way that it is easy actually to get in contact with us. These 3 things makes the difference, and that is what we have seen for the last 9 months. And to be honest, I do not actually see that this is a lot changing. I am not saying that this is not a competitive market. But with that, what we have with the client foundation we have, and the offerings, which we are putting out? We have fared very well. And therefore, the largest driver of deposit intake is coming from Germany. On the investment side, to be honest, I cannot see actually any erosions on the margin side. But that when we are talking about the private bank, what Claudio has done, I think, a superb way, is actually operating leverage. What he is doing month by month quarter by quarter is bringing the cost down in the personal bank. But also, by the way, process wise, in wealth management and in the overall private bank, And obviously, this helps us also to actually compensate for any margin pressure, which would be there. But therefore, also the new business we are getting in terms of or related to the pension reform when it comes to assets under management, actually highly profitable because we also have our costs under control and actually bring it down quarter by quarter in the Personal Bank. Gotcha.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Yeah. Christian, Giulia, the only thing I would add on deposits is that on private bank, as I said, predominantly coming from Germany. Obviously, the corporate bank deposit intake is very global for us, given the nature of our businesses. We have a great mechanism to get actually, the, the operating deposits, and that is what is also driving our cash management business ' progress. So, but there is also. Germany is actually a big factor for our even our corporate bank deposits because that is where majority of our clients sit. To your question about CLP, where we sit today now, Julius, I think that you should expect a number that is close to the third quarter. I would say, if I was to estimate at this point, the second half probably in total may look like what the first half looked like. And that is with the decision if we were to do any more additional derisking of the CLP book, for CRE. So no. Do not think we should be expecting a €500 million quarter in the fourth quarter. The way I think about it right now is a good proxy would be just in total, the second half similar to what the first half was like, but that also depends a little bit on whether we decide to do more derisking or not. And if we do not, then obviously, it would be a little bit different number.
GM
Giulia Miotto
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead
Thanks.
OP
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Kian Abouhossein from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
KA
Kian Abouhossein
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Yes, thanks for taking my question. Just coming back on CRE and the provisioning line, you clearly indicated there could be further reduction on CRE into 2027. So trying to understand how we should think about provisioning in 2027 actually. Rather than the fourth quarter And what is triggering this accelerated de risking at this point? As this seems to be a bit of a change? The second question is related to 13% plus That in action, our coverage is the lowest RoTE of any bank. Either achieved this year. Or achieved by 28. And I am really wondering what the trigger is or what you see as the long term low key possibility, considering the environment is actually quite good. And what the. What should be the delta Where is the delta coming from? I mean, your investment bank performs well but makes the royalty of 12% roughly. You are capping the size. When other competitors are growing. I am just trying to understand how do we get that 13% to 15 should we even think about beyond from your perspective And what will be the delta there? Thanks.
CS
Christian Sewing
Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Kian. it is Christian. Let me start with the second question. Look, Kieran, we have always said, let me be clear, that we are on a journey also in the IDD in 2025. So please do not assume that the larger 13, which we are more than confident in to achieve that, that this is the end game. Not at all. I agree with you. We are not yet there where we should be. And therefore, we have a clear plan. Secondly, I think Roger pointed out very clearly that we will give you an update in January. Now let's be patient for the next 3 months As I told you, beat and race, I love that. We just gave you a little bit of an upside on the revenue side. Roger has told you for the last 3 quarters, I think, that he sees actually upside on the cost side. If you all move that together, you can obviously expect a different number in January. But we need to work that out bottom up and we want to provide you with a solid plan. Now where does it come from? Number 1, cost. I think I mean, we have shown over the last 3 quarters a, total cost discipline, upside to that, And with all that, what we are doing on AI, work other items, we are managing. To be honest, we see upside on the cost side, number 1. Number 2, and I do not want to go into Raja's answer already, but also when you ask about loan loss provision, the way we are allocating capital, the way we are trying to optimize our capital, has also something to do with that. We are in a position to derisk now where it is appropriate, where it is capital accretive. That will help. And number 3, while I think we have ambitious revenue goals, but so far, we have met them or even overachieved them, To be honest, where the world is and where the world really wants to have a global alternative from Europe, we can be that And I can see opportunities in the German market because things are changing here. And I can see actually opportunities outside Germany because of our global nature. And therefore, I even think that there is a chance to outperform there. But if you ask me what are the key items where we will outperform, it is cost and capital.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Yes. Thanks, Christian. Again, to maybe more a CFO ish answer to this question. You rightfully pointed out about where our returns are for the investment bank. But those are returns today without the full investment power of the investments on the IBCM playing out. So you have to think about that we have an opportunity there on the fee and the advisory based business to take that ROT up, not necessarily from a FICC perspective, but from the IBCM perspective. The private bank is, you know, generating now ROTE of 1.21 thousand%, but that is with a very heavy investment in fixing its cost And we can already see that is paying dividends. So I expect that the private bank RoTE to be closer to what we had promised at the IDD level. The 2 main observations that I had when I came into this job was 1, we can and we should and we must run this bank structurally on a lower cost base. So we are playing for all the marbles in 2028, and we will get this cost base down to be. To beat our original aspirations for 2028. Secondly, about, CRE and CLP, From my perspective, it is pretty obvious. We need to do derisking faster and free up capital. I mean, why wait for things to why hope for things to either get better or deteriorate when we know we can actually exit out and put this capital to work today. So it is a little bit of a change in the way we are operating it, but it is quite intentional. And we are not taking dramatic actions But if a 100 million here me get off a billion of, CRE off my books in this environment where frankly speaking, we just made this decision before the environment became tricky. And I am really glad that we did 2 quarters of quite a bit big changes. So between CRE getting to 30 basis points, which I will come to your question, and a better cost ambition, And even if I was to change not the revenue CAGR, which, by the way, we are meeting, we think that we can do much better than the 13% plus that we will. That laid out, and I am actually looking forward to laying all of that out for you all in January. Look. The CRE trajectory from here is not. I am not gonna promise a us dramatic, you know, change in 1 quarter. But we are very confident that we will get to the 30 basis points in 2028 because of the on the back of the actions that we are doing. The 2027 headline reported number will be lower than the 2026 number, and we will get. May take that big step next year and we will make the final step. We have put some additional disclosure in the deck as you can see, we are almost there for everything. Already. Our corporate bank is running better than expected. Private bank same thing. Investment bank broadly outside of CRE there. We just need to work this out and because we have taken 20% of the CRE high risk portfolio down in just 1 year, I feel I feel relatively comfortable that our promise of 30 basis points is now backed by actions and not just by hope. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Then the next question comes from Stefan-Michael Stalmann from Autonomous. Please go ahead.
SS
Stefan-Michael Stalmann
Analyst · Autonomous. Please go ahead
Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have 2, please. Starting with the Corporate Bank, you described some of the very good business trends there. Corporate banking revenue plus 13% year on year. Also on the deposit side. Are we now seeing first tangible benefits from the Commerzbank unit credit situation here? Or is it totally unrelated? And the second question is on the investment bank. It seems to me that your ability to improve returns depends very much on your cost control. We can see this very nicely in the first 9 months. Cost was only up 1%. But that happens in an environment where your competitors in particular in The U. S, are highly profitable, have a lot of revenue growth, lots of cost growth as well. Does it create competitive pressures for you, in particular on comp? And then also tech investments? Thank you.
CS
Christian Sewing
Chief Executive Officer
Stefan, let me answer the first question. So what we obviously see now over the last 3 or 4 months that you know, the intensity of client discussions given the situation also around our neighbors, is clearly increasing. And that is not a surprise because things are developing. And people are actually looking for options. And we can see that really developing, in particular, in the Corporate Bank, but also in parts of the Private Bank. Now if you look into the numbers in Q3, the impact is, to be honest, still, minimal. But the real good thing is that we can see that clients are considering, that clients are moving, that clients are thinking about future investments to be done with whom and really thinking about establishing Deutsche Bank as a new or as an alternative. And that is obviously our chance. And therefore, everything what we see in the corporate bank is actually not yet really reflecting the regrowth, so to say, in Germany, the opportunity we have in our home market, that comes on top. And when I only see how in the structured way our people are going over this opportunity, honestly, I am I am very confident that we see some material upside actually in the Corporate Bank in Germany from the situation here. And obviously, we need to take this opportunity. I mean, it is our obligation. We do it in a fair way. But obviously, this is a chance, and people are looking for a German bank, which has an international network, and, you know, Deutsche Bank is the remain. Remaining 1.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Yeah. Stefan, on IB, I think the return improvement actually has to come from all 3 angles. You know, clearly, the IBCM side, we are investing and we believe, as I mentioned, that we are going to make progress against not only in the second half but in the second half of the year. The cost discipline is there. And honestly speaking, the invest that are needed are reflected in our run rate because we have been hiring an IBCM We have been investing in the FICC deck as part of our investment plan for 2026 and 2027. So we do not feel the need that we need to materially upsize that spend to compete. And looking at The US banks, a big chunk of their spend actually is in the equities franchise. Given with the dynamic, and we are not there. So, our need for investment is also rationalized by the businesses that we are in. Our entire focus is to keep the cost base as efficient as possible, but frankly, speaking, focus more and more on growing our capital light advisory businesses which frankly speaking also do not require as much tech or infrastructure spend. So, I think that this quarter we would also benefit a little bit about the nonrecurrence of some things that happened in the year over year. But despite that, I think the invest. The cost base reflects the investments that are necessary. From my perspective to be competitive and as I said. And Christian and I said, that said, we still see there is more opportunities there in the outer years.
SS
Stefan-Michael Stalmann
Analyst · Autonomous. Please go ahead
Helpful. Thank you very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
JS
Jeremy Sigee
Analyst · BNP Paribas. Please go ahead
Thank you. A couple of quite high level macro questions really, but I would be in your perspectives. The first is you very much emphasized and it is great to hear it, the positive comments about the German stimulus and the positive impact that is having. Do you sense or do you hear in your discussions with clients any adverse impacts from some of the bond market disruption, the sovereign issues, energy prices and also some of the German political pressures that we are seeing, are any of those headwinds a material factor in your discussions with clients? And then second, also quite macro question. You also mentioned the EU legislative package coming in the first quarter next year. What are the key bits of that you are looking for that will make a difference to your business?
CS
Christian Sewing
Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Let me start, and Roger, please add. Look, overall and again, I am obviously also a bit influenced by the meetings last week in Germany and Berlin. But also actually, obviously, talking to investors when I was at the Canada Summit and getting their views on Germany. And, you know, they clearly see that something is happening in Germany. They clearly see that the growth rate is far more robust than we thought actually at the end of the first quarter. And if you think that Germany is energy dependent and we have an oil price, which is far higher actually than we had at the start of the year. And Germany is nevertheless growing now. By potentially above 1%. And this also tells you something about the resiliency of the underlying economy. And again, we can now see that the fiscal stimulus is coming into, the economy and that we also see more private investments. Just also have another number I mean, last week, we got on this invest in Germany, summit, I think, another €250 billion of investment. That comes on top of the €860 billion of investments, which are committed by the Made for Germany initiative. So things are coming. Now you asked me for the negative questions. Not too much on the sovereign debt for Germany, to be honest. That not a topic at all. There is, obviously, with the elections which we had in some of our states, there are concerns. And in particular, there are concerns when it comes to the socialization question in Berlin. Now let's see what is happening there with the local government. I cannot give any prediction whether they form a coalition or not. But I think the answer of the federal government was very, very clear. That they wanna put a law into place which actually prohibits that. And that was taken very positive, by the investors also last week. But I tell you at the same time, this now needs to come. You cannot wait for a long time with this new law. Because investors want to see actually evidence to the talk which has been given. But I do believe that the federal government in this regard has understood the concerns of investors, in particular to this question. And therefore, I do believe that this is under control. The most important, though, is actually aside of that, the most important is that despite the rise of the far right and the far left Germany stays the course to do reforms. That is the only chance this government has actually to, pursue and get back into economic growth. That is, in my view, the only chance how to make far right and far left smaller maybe painful at the start if you do the reforms, but it is in the long term the right thing for Germany. And that is what corporate Germany is telling the government, and I do see in this regard actually a very committed government. So I think that overall investors are really acknowledging, the progress but now we also need, to see that these reforms, which have been announced, are actually implemented.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Yes. Thanks, Christian. So before I address the package, I just, obviously know the way I think about it is, 1 is what are the actions that are within our control even before the legislative package goes through. As you know, we announced yesterday that the. For the second year in a row, our Pillar 2R has been lowered by 25 basis points this time around, and that is a reflection of the business model shifts that we have been working on being acknowledged even under the current framework, which is actually something that we are happy about, that we are not solely dependent on legislation. Our capital position improvement, something that we could do. In terms of the overall package, I would say there are 3 things. 1 is it takes away the uncertainty about additional capital inflation that is kinda weighing down everybody because there is a lack of clarity around what is going to happen with the unintended consequences of CRR3? Especially in relation to the outflow and especially in light of what just Christian said that where Europe needs growth to be supported by banks and whether that would actually prohibit that. So I think we would we would very welcome some finality and clarity And we know what the right answer is, but it would be great to actually have that put aside. Secondly, obviously, the bigger picture is about the single market integration and then for a capital markets bank like us, that obviously is a really big thing. Third is some technical changes that I think are super important and I. And from our perspective, easier to implement. The discussions around securitizations or software treatment in Europe versus where we all see elsewhere in the world. So net, I think there was a study I referred to it last time was 1 of the firms that Deutsche Bank, if all these recommendations were, approved as proposed, would be the biggest beneficiary bank in Europe. So, you know, if you. We can take different perspectives. But net, taking away the uncertainty making sure that we can invest where to support Europe, dealing with some of the nuances about securitization and software capitalization, and then over the longer term, getting the single market integration would be really important. Obviously, from my perspective, the gravy would be some level of regulatory simplification. I think that our regulators are already working on that, so I have to comment on that. At least in our own case, getting the speed-to-market reduction, acknowledging our work. I think it is it is the right step and we hope that trajectory continues.
JS
Jeremy Sigee
Analyst · BNP Paribas. Please go ahead
Brilliant. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Then the next question comes from Matthew Clark from Mediobanca.
AN
Analyst
Operator
2 questions. Firstly, on the commercial real estate and the LTV disclosures in the report. I am just hoping to get a bit more color on this other business segment. I know it is disclosed as being a small component of the stress tested CRE portfolio, but it has seen its LTV go up a long way. Just like to know a bit more what this is, why is not it booked in the other major divisions if the higher LTV a bad thing, and that the market's deteriorating? Is it a good thing because you are using your discretion to mark stuff for sale. Just a bit more color there to understand what is going on and whether it is good or bad. And then on the personal banking revenue guidance has been nudged down a bit for the full year and seems to imply a fourth quarter versus third quarter decline. So just like to know what is the driver there? It seems to contrast a bit with the very strong volume growth we have seen. Just wondering what the offset to that volume growth is coming from?
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Sure. Let me take the second 1 first. I would not view that as a substitute downgrade. Obviously, when you are in a technical land in. Within percentages, we have to follow the rules and actually reflect what is slightly below our slightly higher versus higher. I think the trajectory of that business is as strong as it could be. So I would I would like to reassure you that is a that is a technical change, not a substantive change. In addition, in due to your sorry? Just saying thank you. Second question you had was about LTV. The. A part of the. As the way to think about LTV is it. it is a portion that is actually booked in CIS, in corporate and other, which is relates to our legacy portfolio. So, therefore, it is a little bit different. Look. I think the way to think about the slight decline in gross LTV is entirely by the legacy book and reflects some evaluation updates. The performing book actually shows a moderate improvement. And given the exits that we do, obviously, exiting out of a position that actually had a large loan loss provision can also obviously have a momentarily impact. But you should look at is a stable net LTV basically shows that we have actually built quite a bit of additional CLA buffers to accommodate any future weaker valuation trends. So as such, I would not really. I am not super fussed about the decline in 1 particular pocket, which is primarily on the legacy defaulted book.
AN
Analyst
Operator
Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Andrew Coombs from Citi. Please go ahead.
AC
Andrew Coombs
Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead
Good morning. Just a couple of follow ups on capital. The first on the Pillar 2 reduction, 25 basis points declined the You have not changed your operating range from the 13.5 to 14. So just wondering whether you would consider doing so now you have had that confirmation of a lower pillar 2. And secondly, risk weights. Know you had your wholesale models reviewed back in 2023 by the ECB? We have seen some other banks come out with some disclosure around ECB reviews of their corporate risk weight models. If we run a screen across Europe, Deutsche Bank even post that adjustment in 2023, does appear to have lower corporate risk weight density than a number of other European banks. And part of that can be attributed to the PD, but a lot of it is lower LGD. So wondering if you can comment on that, why you think that is? And in the past, you have talked about using CDS, SRTs, guarantees, Is there anything you can just disclose on that and on your corporate risk weight models more broadly. Thank you.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Sure. Andrew. In terms of the changing the operating range, look, we just set it up not even a year ago, and we just received this notification, obviously, last night. We will take this into consideration in totality when we do our plan update January. And see if anything needs to be updated or revised. But we are very comfortable with the range that we have set up for now. You know, it also allows us a cadence in terms of our share buybacks. And predictably. So at this point, I would say, I would like to stick to what we committed to. And, obviously, within that, we have room to maneuver ourselves given that our you know, our distance to MDA is now a little bit different. So I would say, would not change that. In terms of the SRTs, I think we had talked about at the Investor Day that we wanted to get approximately, you know, a 100 basis point benefit We are rolling out new programs every quarter To date, we are probably 3 quarters of the way from a benefit perspective, but this will obviously continue into rest of the year. And next year, obviously, you have rollover, so that. that is a continuous program. Look. I think on the on the risk density, you have to look at our business model. We have a large portion of our portfolios that is in zero or low percent, low risk weighted assets such as bonds or sovereign bonds. So it is it is hard to kinda compare risk density for our business versus others. As it relates to internal models is concerned, obviously, that is a regular review that all banks are required to take under EBA guidance and CRR. I can confirm is that our operating range of 13 and a half, 14% considers any known items or that we foresee impacting our operating range. So it is it is all encompassing, obviously, we go through a regular reviews and we will next year as well. And sometimes we come out ahead, sometimes we come out a little bit behind, but that is that is that is nothing to us. it is that is that is a routine part of running our business. But low risk density, I do not think it is really easy to compare us to another player if you look at the type of activity that we engage in versus some of the other banks.
OP
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Mate Nemes from UBS. Please go ahead.
MN
Mate Nemes
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead
Yes. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have 3 of them, please. The first 1 would be a follow-up just on deposits. Christian, you talked about new deposits clients turn into longer term clients. Would you mind giving us some ballpark sort of percentage share of new clients that stayed with Deutsche Bank out How sticky these new clients are? And, you know, what is the share of so called hoppers? The second question would be on wealth management. I noticed the 180 hires against the 250 targets in 2 years' time Can you give us a sense whether there should be any slowdown in hiring the next few quarters? And also if you can comment on the key USP of Deutsche Bank that allows you maintaining this elevated level of hiring. And just another follow-up on data center exposure. You mentioned that it is in the high single digits, probably stable, nothing much to report on this. I was just wondering if you can talk a little bit about how you approach concentration risk be it to the entire data center financing CapEx. Team. Or to the single obligors as well as the space can be reasonably concentrated. Any thoughts on that would be appreciated. Thank you.
RA
Raja J. Akram
Management
Hi. This is Raja. Let me let me just take. I think it is I do not. How to kinda talk in terms of number of clients. Think the way we look at it is that we have run campaigns in second quarter and third quarter across our brands, both Deutsche Bank and Postbank. And what we have seen is whatever we had expected from a model behavior perspective, or what we expect to retain, after the promotion period is over, we have actually either met that or slightly exceeded that. So that gives us the confidence that we do not anticipate that every new client that will come in as part of the promotion will stick around. I think that would be a fallacy to think about it, but what we are seeing is that the retention rates are in line with the model behavior is. That means it makes it a little bit accretive. So as so that. that is the way we think about the PV deposits. And as Christian mentioned, our goal generally is to not go with the highest offering with the new entrant nor with the longest promotion period. And that is the hypothesis we test. And then if based on that, if 50% stay or 60% stay or 40% stay, as long as it is within a marble behavior, We consider that campaign to be a success that we were able to generate what we wanted to generate. And enough people stayed. In terms of your hiring pattern, I think you are referring specifically to PB. At the time of the investor day, we said that we wanted to hire approximately 250 new advisers. We are approximately at 180 already. And frankly speaking, we are probably ahead of plan there. And that just shows the power of the brand that we have been able to attract teams. Collectively teams where we may have had to hire individuals So I think the hiring by default you were to think about between 180 and 250, and if you have done 180 already in the first year. Would be obviously much. Exponentially much lower than that. So. But we do think that we can get to approximately 200 or 22 by the end of the year. In terms of data center exposure, I think we as I mentioned to you, our strategy has always been very clear that we wanted to go with hyperscalers, single tenant, long term leases with strong sponsor, but beyond that, we also. We have a strict limit on how much exposure we want by a counterparty. And beyond that, we have hedging programs in place to basically derisk above and beyond our risk appetite. And as I mentioned, the number. The overall exposure is pretty much the same that I had at the beginning of the year, sub €10 billion. But we are definitely. Obviously, where we have concentration, it is with large hyperscalers. And even within those, we try not to retain all the risk. Got it.
MN
Mate Nemes
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead
Thank you, Raja.
OP
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further at this time. So I would like to turn the conference back over to Silke Nicole Super for any closing remarks.
SI
Silke
Analyst
Thank you for joining us and for your questions. For any follow ups, please get in touch with the IR team, and we look forward to speaking to you on our fourth quarter call. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Call and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.