James von Moltke
Analyst · Kian Abouhossein with JPMorgan
Thank you, Christian. Let us now turn to the financial summary on Slide 7. As Christian said, our second quarter results demonstrated resilience despite some of the idiosyncratic pressures we faced. Revenues of €6.6 billion were broadly flat year-on-year on a reported basis. Total noninterest expenses of €5.8 billion increased by 1% compared to the prior year quarter. Cuts and adjusted costs were more than offset by higher restructuring and severance as we execute on our strategic objectives. Restructuring and severance was €239 million in the quarter and €280 million for the first half. Our profit before tax was €711 million, and our tax rate remains elevated, reflecting the pronounced impact of nondeductible expenses relative to the level of pretax profits. And as a result, we generated €400 million of net income in the quarter, with earnings per share of €0.03 or €0.17 excluding the annual AT1 coupon payments, which occurred this quarter. Tangible book value per share of €25.91 is up 1% compared to the prior quarter. Turning to our adjusted costs on Slide 8. Adjusted for the impact of foreign exchange translation, adjusted costs of €5.6 billion rose by 1% or €40 million versus the prior year period. The increase included €160 million of higher compensation and benefits expenses. This reflected higher deferrals for prior year awards as we return to a more normalized variable compensation structure in 2017 and management's decision to pace the current year accruals for variable compensations more evenly through the year. You can see on Slide 23 of the appendix we reduced costs in all other categories year-over-year with approximately €100 million of savings as a result of management actions to optimize external support costs and IT spend. Slide 9 shows our progress in reducing the number of employees as we work to improve the efficiency of the firm. Across the group, we have reduced our full-time equivalent workforce by approximately 1,700 in the quarter to 95,400. Our front office staff reductions in the Corporate & Investment Bank are well advanced with a decline of close to 1,000 in the second quarter. And as we execute on our target to reach 93,000 employees by year end, we also need to adjust our infrastructure given our recent business changes. As a reminder, we expect a reduction of 1,400 employees from the sale of our Polish retail and commercial banking operations anticipated to close in the fourth quarter. Turning to our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio and fully loaded leverage ratio on Slide 10. We ended the second quarter with a CET1 ratio of 13.7%, 38 basis points above the prior quarter as we reduced credit and market risk-weighted assets in CIB. Adjusted for FX, credit risk-weighted assets declined by approximately €8 billion in the quarter with roughly half coming from process enhancements. The rest came from reduced business volumes, including a small contribution from the deleveraging of our low-risk balance sheet in Prime Finance and U.S. Rates. As Christian noted, this level of capitalization gives us a strong foundation both to manage through the current period of repositioning and to selectively grow our business. As discussed in prior quarters, we have been anticipating additional regulatory changes, including the guaranteed funds product, which could negatively affect our CET1 ratio. The expected timing of potential changes appears to be extending, among other things, due to the ongoing legislative process around CRR2. As a consequence, our current expectation is that the impact of regulatory changes on the CET1 ratio this year should be less than previously thought and perhaps no more than 20 basis points. As we gain greater clarity on the impact of regulatory changes next year and thereafter, we will continue to manage to a ratio of greater than 13% by growing capital through retained earnings over time and adjusting our capital needs through continued optimization of the balance sheet. Turning to the leverage ratio. Our fully loaded leverage ratio increased by 28 basis points to 4%, driven by an €85 billion reduction in leverage exposure or €114 billion on an FX-neutral basis. The decline was materially all in Equities and FIC, principally Prime Finance and Rates, as we execute on our strategic objectives. Reductions were across all products and categories, most notably secured financing transactions, which were down by more than €40 billion, lower trading inventory and derivatives of €10 billion each and further reductions in other assets pending settlements and liquidity reserves. For the remainder of 2018, we expect group as well as CIB leverage exposure to be broadly flat with further reductions in Equities, but targeted business-driven redeployment notably in FIC. Before I move to the segment results, the next two slides address a couple of special topics. Slide 11 shows the progress we have made in reducing our nonstrategic assets in our Corporate & Investment Bank. This portfolio includes assets that are not consistent with our strategy in CIB as well as the residual CIB assets from the noncore operations unit. Running down these assets is one of management's priorities as we look to redeploy our balance sheet usage into higher return areas. In the last 12 months, we decreased market and credit risk-weighted assets in the nonstrategic portfolio by approximately €5 billion and cut leverage exposure by €15 billion or by more than 1/3 on each measure. Leaving aside any sales or unwinds, we would expect around 1/3 of the current portfolio to roll off by the end of 2020. We will look for ways to accelerate the wind-down of this portfolio where it is economically sensible for us to do so. This was demonstrated by the sale of higher risk parts of our shipping portfolio announced in the second quarter, which will reduce risk-weighted assets by a further approximately €800 million in the third quarter. With revenues less credit provisions at a positive €60 million in the first half of 2018, the portfolio has not had a significant end impact on our recent financial performance. Some details of our Level 3 assets are shown on Slide 12. For ease of reference, we present some of the data that is available in our interim reports. We hold Level 3 assets because they are valuable in our business and valuable to our clients. Of our €22 billion of Level 3 assets at the end of the quarter, the vast majority are generated in our core businesses. Only €1.4 billion of our nonstrategic portfolio that I just described are Level 3 assets. A Level 3 accounting classification is not a measure of asset quality. It signals that there is at least 1 valuation parameter that cannot be directly observed in a liquid market. Our Level 3 assets are revalued continuously, both by our businesses and also through our independent valuation teams who actively monitor the inputs to our models, compare these with the best available market data and assess the appropriateness of our valuation techniques. Approximately 60% of our Level 3 assets are cash instruments, including loans and debt securities, some of which relate to less liquid markets, including in developed economies where trading volumes can be limited. They are often backed by high-quality collateral or are hedged. The remaining 40% or €8 billion of our Level 3 assets are the positive market value of derivatives. Derivative assets are classified as Level 3 when even a small percentage of the value is sensitive to movements in an unobservable parameter. This often means that many of the parameters required to price these instruments are observable and these observable inputs will often be the primary drivers of the reported fair value. Most of the derivative assets that we hold are collateralized and hedged, for example, through our €6 billion of Level 3 derivative liabilities. Finally, as you can see on the slide, our Level 3 asset portfolio is not static with considerable inflows and outflows. This velocity of asset turnover is an integral part of our business model, supporting liquidity provisioning and risk intermediation on behalf of clients. Turning to our segment results, starting with our Corporate & Investment Bank on Slide 14. CIB reported profit before tax of €475 million in the second quarter on revenues of €3.6 billion. Noninterest expenses of €3.1 billion rose by 5% year-over-year, including €175 million of restructuring and severance costs related to our headcount reductions in the quarter. Adjusted costs of €2.9 billion were flat versus the prior year period despite the higher variable compensation costs in the quarter as the level of deferrals normalized and we more evenly paced our accruals through the year. And we cut leverage exposure by €86 billion or 8% on a reported basis in the quarter, principally as a result of our announced reductions in Equities and Rates. In doing this, we have increased the efficiency of our balance sheet and reduced low-yielding assets. Turning to our revenue performance in CIB on Slide 15. Global Transaction Banking revenues increased by 4% year-over-year, principally driven by a €57 million gain on an asset sale. On a sequential basis and excluding the gain on sale, Transaction Banking revenues increased by 4%. Looking forward, we expect GTB revenues to increase sequentially from the underlying second quarter level, reflecting the mandates won in the second half of 2017 and thereafter. In Origination & Advisory, revenues increased 2% year-over-year and were 20% higher than in the first quarter. Greater focus on our core product areas has allowed us to regain market share in the quarter despite the overall corporate finance industry wallet being down by approximately 10% in euro terms. In Fixed Income Sales & Trading, revenues declined by 17% versus the prior year. The decline was principally driven by lower credit revenues given a strong prior year period comparison and slower revenues in flow trading given spread widening, while our credit financing businesses continued to perform well. Rates revenues were down in Europe from lower volatility and decreased issuance levels, but we saw improved flow in our FX and Rate businesses in Asia Pacific. And finally, our FX revenues were slightly lower, but with solid performance in Derivatives. Equity Sales & Trading revenues declined by 6% year-over-year on a reported basis and 4% excluding FX driven by a decline in derivatives and cash revenues. Prime Finance revenues were significantly higher, driven by higher margins and higher revenues from the ETF index and certificates business. Slide 16 shows the results of our Private & Commercial Bank. We reported profit before tax of €262 million in the second quarter on revenues of €2.5 billion. Noninterest expenses of €2.2 billion were broadly flat versus the prior year period as net releases of litigation provisions offset the higher investments associated with the merger in Germany. Merger-related costs were approximately €65 million this quarter and approximately €100 million in the first half of 2018 and were the main driver of the 4% increase in adjusted costs in the quarter. As shown on Slide 17, revenues in Private & Commercial business Germany, which includes both the former Postbank and Deutsche Bank businesses, increased by 4% year-over-year. The increase was driven by the absence of contra-revenues recorded in the second quarter last year from the termination of a legacy trust preferred security. Excluding this item, revenues declined by 3%, as we grew mortgage and commercial loans to partially offset the continued margin pressure on deposit revenues and lower income from interest rate hedges. In our continuing international operations, principally in Italy and Spain, revenues declined by 5%. This decline was driven by the absence of a small gain on the sale in the second quarter last year as we grew loan revenues to partially offset the impact of lower deposit margins. Wealth Management revenues, excluding a lower contribution from gains from legacy positions in Sal. Oppenheim, were broadly flat despite a negative impact from FX movements. We saw good revenue growth in Asia on strong capital markets activity and loan growth, which offset the impact of difficult conditions in EMEA. Slide 18 shows the results for Deutsche Bank's Asset Management segment, which includes certain items that are not part of DWS' financials. Asset Management reported profit before tax of €93 million in the quarter after non-controlling interests of €26 million. Reported revenues declined by 17% versus the prior year period, driven by a €57 million decline in performance fees. This reflected 1 Alternatives fund that recognizes fees every other year as well as lower management fees in Active and Alternatives driven by lower assets under management, net outflows, margin compression and the absence of revenues from businesses exited in 2017. On a sequential basis, revenues in Asset Management increased by 3%, mainly reflecting higher performance fees and investment gains in Alternatives. Noninterest expenses were essentially flat year-over-year as reductions in performance-related compensation and administrative costs were offset by higher MiFID-related external research spend and litigation provisions. Assets under management of €692 billion increased by €14 billion in the quarter, driven by favorable market performance and FX movements. We recorded a net outflow of €5 billion as inflows in Passive were more than offset by outflows in Cash, Fixed Income and Equities. As a reminder, DWS management will host its analyst call immediately after this one. Turning to our Corporate & Other segment on Slide 19, C&O reported pretax losses of €119 million in the quarter, including €113 million of valuation and timing differences and €118 million of shareholder expenses. Shareholder expenses were elevated due to restructuring charges, but excluding these charges, were slightly improved relative to the first quarter level. To summarize, Slide 20 reiterates our near-term financial targets. As Christian said earlier, our main focus is on generating a return on tangible equity of greater than 4% in 2019, which we view as a realistic first step towards our longer term aspirations. With a return on tangible equity of 1.8% in the first half of the year, we need to improve profitability in the coming quarters to reach our target. To support our return goals, we have introduced adjusted cost targets, including the €23 billion target for 2018. To achieve this goal, we intend to manage down adjusted costs on a sequential basis in the coming quarters. Of course, our €22 billion adjusted cost target in 2019 requires us to continue on this glide path. To support our cost objectives, we will reduce headcount to below 93,000 employees by the end of 2018 and to well below 90,000 in 2019. We've made significant progress towards the 2018 target by reducing headcount by 1,700 this quarter. With that, let me hand over to James Rivett to moderate the Q&A session.