Earnings Labs

Dana Incorporated (DAN)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 19, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Dana Holding Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Financial Webcast and Conference Call. My name is Brent, and I will be your conference facilitator. Please be advised that our meeting today, both the speakers' remarks and Q&A session, will be recorded for replay purposes. There will be a question-and-answer period after the speakers' remarks, and we will take questions from the telephone only. At this time, I would like to begin the presentation by turning the call over to Dana's Director of Investor Relations, Craig Barber. Please go ahead, Mr. Barber.

Craig Barber - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Brent, and thank you all for joining us today for Dana's fourth quarter and full year 2014 earnings review. Copies of our press release and presentation have been posted on Dana's Investor website. Today's call is being recorded, and the supporting materials are the property of Dana Holding Corporation. They may not be recorded, copied or rebroadcast without our written consent. Today's call will include the Q&A session. In order to allow as many questions as possible, please keep your questions brief. Today's presentation includes some forward-looking statements about our expectations for Dana's future performance. Actual results could differ from those suggested by our comments here. Additional information about the factors that could affect our future results, are summarized in our Safe Harbor statement. These risk factors are also detailed in our public filings, including our Annual Report, Quarterly Report and Current Report with the SEC. Presenting this morning will be Roger Wood, President and Chief Executive Officer; Bill Quigley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Wallace, Executive Vice President and Group President of On-Highway Driveline Technologies. I will now hand the call over to Roger Wood. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Craig, and good morning, everyone. As we told you back in January, 2014 was another good year for Dana. Starting on slide four, in 2014, we recorded sales of $6.6 billion, net income for the year was $319 million and diluted adjusted earnings per share were up 12% to $1.99, $0.03 better than our guidance. Our adjusted EBITDA margin continues to get better. We ended 2014 at $746 million, $1 million better than we thought, when we talked to you in January. 2014 was another record year with a margin of 11.3%, the sixth consecutive year of…

Operator

Operator

At this time we would like to begin the Q&A session. Your first question comes from the line of Patrick Nolan with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead with your question. William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, Pat. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Pat.

Patrick E. Nolan - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Just looking for a little clarification on slide 24. A couple of things; so, on the volume mix portion of it, it seems like the incremental margin, if I'm using the $40 million to $50 million, compared to the market and backlog of $250 million to $300 million, it looks like an incremental margin in the mid-teens. It's a little weaker than what you've historically done and considering Light Vehicle Driveline should be the biggest portion of your growth, I would have expected that to be higher. Is there just a significant launch costs that's in that number or can you just help us understand? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, Pat, this is Bill Quigley. As we kind of look at – and we talked a bit about this in January, with respect to the contribution margins, you're right, about mid-teens and certainly Light Vehicle Driveline is going to be the biggest driver in 2015 compared to 2014. Not all the programs obviously are launching in the first of the year. So, we've got a number of programs launching throughout the year. So from your peer perspective, once you get to run rate, we would expect that margin to improve as we move forward into 2016 with certainly as part of our margin targets at that time. So you're right, we've got to get through the launches, which we're very confident in doing, and to your point, Light Vehicle Driveline being the largest piece of the puzzle. And as we move through 2015, we'll see those margins move up in the later part of the year.

Patrick E. Nolan - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

That's helpful. Thank you. And on the FX portion, it seems like the detrimental margin on the FX headwind particularly if you get the reduction in your guidance versus the guidance in January, it seems to be pretty high and the change in guidance implies like a detrimental on FX of around 20% which is well in excess of your EBITDA margin. Is there some kind of transactional kind of headwinds that's within that number that's causing it to be higher? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, Pat, it's Bill again. If you take a look at obviously the currencies that we moved most notably the euro, but certainly the sterling as well as the Canadian dollar, when you think about the distribution of the business from a European perspective, I'll use that as an example, that being largely Power Technologies as well as our Off-Highway business, we are getting a richer mix there with respect to the impact on those currency movements. So again, it's a function of the distribution of our business around the world and obviously the margin profiles around the world as well. So again, you're right, little slightly higher margin impact there, but as we progress the year we'll see where we ultimately end up with respect to where rates settle. To your other question, Pat, this does not include transactional impacts, it's largely just the flow-through on translation.

Patrick E. Nolan - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thanks very much. I'll get back in the queue.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

Yes, and good morning. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Brian.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

Two questions, both around kind of margins. First, as we think through the exit margin of 2016, 13%. I mean clearly Venezuela helps a little bit, but we knew that a few weeks ago. Can you maybe go through just what markets in terms of end markets have to get better to get to that 13%? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. I'll take a shot again, Brian, on this. I think it's not only market but it's also the backlog. So if you take a look at the backlog through that period of time – through 2017, right, we've got a growing backlog of $730 million over that three-year period, that's certainly is a contributor to that margin profile as we move forward through 2016. Even to my comments in the previous caller's question with respect to Light Vehicle Driveline for example launching programs in 2015, get to full run rate and efficiencies in 2016 that will further obviously move the margin up. To your point Venezuela, certainly has an impact on that. And if you look out, that will certainly lower our sales expectation for 2016, but we still remain very confident in that plus 13% exit rate. And I think, as we look at our guidance currently, a move up to 11.6% or thereabouts with respect to 2015, we're certainly on the right trajectory. With respect to demand, all the businesses obviously contribute to the improvement in our margin profile. But as we look to 2016, we do expect some recovery in the Off-Highway markets and that business certainly is positioned well to have a significant contribution margin impact through 2016. So those are kind of the factors that we look at with respect to the business profile as we move through this year and into next year. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. So, Brian, this is Roger. And just to build on a little bit of what Bill had mentioned, predominantly the improvements that we continue to make in expansion of our margin is now starting to take hold in the product launches that we're doing. As we've mentioned several times before the new products bringing online are coming online with margins at a better margin rate than the traditional products that we've had in the business. And because we're now launching more programs, our margin expansion is due to that. So, as Bill correctly said from a market perspective, we feel like, at some point the Off-Highway market does have to come back, because we've said for several years that it keeps going down. We're confident that it will and we think that it will sometime in that plan to be able to affect the margins a little bit. But for the rest of the business units and the rest of the regions of the world, we're not really expecting anything spectacular from a demand standpoint. It's really all about the product launches.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

And similarly, if we look across the four businesses this year, the two Driveline businesses, 10% and 9.4% margin, respectively; the two other businesses, 13.7% and 14.6%. Is 10% as good as it gets in Driveline, and again, as we think that 13%, is there room to go up there or is it more, to get to that 13%, or is it more, those are at 10% but incremental revenues in Off-Highway and backlog in Power Tech at higher margins, help move the dial.

Mark Wallace - Executive Vice President and Group President, On-Highway Driveline Technologies

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

Hey, Brian, it's Mark Wallace. And we definitely expect Off-Highway and PTG will continue to expand their margins, but in the Driveline business, which is a large portion of the backlog, we will get margin appreciation in the Driveline business which will help our exit rates in 2016. William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And, Brian, certainly – it's Bill. We certainly don't look to 10% as a ceiling for that business. And again, I think if you look at all the challenges that that business encountered during the course of 2014, let alone in 2013, this 10% is a record performance. And again, as we look to it, certainly not a ceiling with respect to the margin profile of the business as it moves forward. So bringing on additional capability with respect to technology to our customers, we're certainly confident that we're going to see a rising margin profile here. Is it a 16%, 15% margin? Probably not, but certainly we have room to grow from our 2014 levels.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

And just finally, within that Commercial Vehicle margin and also sales, any revenue impact from a competitor moving up in the data book at PACCAR? And then kind of how, I guess, was that reflected in the backlog numbers you put out earlier? And could that have a kind of second order effect either on pricing or on other vendors?

Mark Wallace - Executive Vice President and Group President, On-Highway Driveline Technologies

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

Hi, Brian, it's Mark Wallace. We fully contemplated competitive movements in our outlook moving forward. And regarding the 46K axle as you mentioned, that's a vocational axle, it's not the standard Class 8 over-the-road axle. And historically when you look backwards between our competitor and our position in the data book, we've been fairly close from a pricing perspective and we've enjoyed the majority of that share in that 46K market. So even though they may get some preferential treatment here in the data book, we definitely will continue working with our end customers because they look forward to our product robustness and our service network.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Archambault with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question. Patrick K. Archambault - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you. Good morning. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Patrick. Patrick K. Archambault - Goldman Sachs & Co.: I guess, some follow-up questions on slide 24. Just so I can better understand the chart, if I try and convert some of these sales impacts to EBITDA impacts, I get it the market/backlog translates into the volume and mix piece on the EBITDA line, but I guess the pricing recovery, why doesn't that flow down to EBITDA or is that folded into performance? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Pat, it's Bill. Recall as we've gone through progress this year as well as last year, that pricing and recovery range, if you will, the $25 million to $50 million largely is around recoveries of inflationary pressures for example on South America, where we operate, be it Brazil, Argentina, and certainly in the past it was in Venezuela, which we certainly won't have to deal with moving forward. So it's a neutralizing factor in increase of our sales, but it basically neutralizes the flow-through from an EBITDA perspective as well as the margin. So you get some flow-through, but the bulk of that really is around what we see in inflation movements, be it in just highly inflationary environments and/or commodity movements. So as you know from a commodity perspective, we've got a number of arrangements in place and/or channels with customers, if we see commodities rise, we've historically been in position to recover a substantial portion of those, but at the same time if commodities go downward, that would be the inverse effect. So you're right, it doesn't flow naturally to that performance line, because it's effectively offsetting expected inflation in the business. Patrick K. Archambault - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. And to the extent some of that is compensating for FX like in Brazil, that's kind of netted out in the $60 million that you've got there? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Correct. Patrick K. Archambault - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. And then, I guess one other question that I had, you referred to some – in Commercial Vehicles, you referred to some pretty big performance headwinds, I mean big I think it was $22 million if I'm remembering the number, from warranty and premium freight in CV, and I was just wondering, is there some kind of a non-recurrence of that that could potentially be a tailwind here or are those two things expected to continue?

Mark Wallace - Executive Vice President and Group President, On-Highway Driveline Technologies

Analyst

Patrick, it's Mark Wallace. Regarding warranty, I mean, we don't expect that to be a reoccurring issue, we trued up an accrual for past issues, and that's settled. Regarding the premium freight, we've gotten through Q4 and are much better-positioned in 2015 with our strategic actions around our supply network. We expect to wrap it up in Q1, and we feel comfortable that a lot of the premium we saw in Q3 and Q4 will begin to shrink in the full year. Patrick K. Archambault - Goldman Sachs & Co.: So those are both positives. I mean are those folded into the $15 million to $25 million of performance, or are those potential opportunities?

Mark Wallace - Executive Vice President and Group President, On-Highway Driveline Technologies

Analyst

Those are folded into our outlook and our performance. Patrick K. Archambault - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. And last question from me, just like from an accounting perspective, the D&A increase that you saw this year versus last year or actually 2014 versus 2013. Is that just kind of fresh start accounting rolling off or is there anything more to that? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No, it's largely, actually it was a decrease from 2013 to 2014, largely around the amortization line little bit on depreciation expense, you are right, Patrick, it's all around the fresh start kind of roll off, if you will, that's what it is. Patrick K. Archambault - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. So, it's in line with your new CapEx spend. Obviously, we should, we found a base here and we're growing D&A from here? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Correct. Patrick K. Archambault - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. And then last one, forgive me if this is probably clearly in your press release somewhere, but the cash implications of Venezuela, can you just remind me of that? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. At year end – I'm sorry, at year end, you'll see it on our external financial statements of our 10-K ones we have filed that. We had cash balances in Venezuela at year end of about $29 million of which $2 million were kind of written off and we had $27 million left. Once we concluded that transaction in January that will fully come off the balance sheet. It's not reflected in our cash and marketable securities balances that I highlighted in our slides, it's sitting in a separate line item really around the accounting requirements of businesses held for sale, so about $29 million in total. Patrick K. Archambault - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. That's helpful. All right, terrific. Thanks a lot, guys. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Pat.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with CLSA. Please go ahead with your question.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead with your question.

Hi. Good morning, everybody. William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, Emmanuel. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, good morning, Emmanuel.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead with your question.

I just wanted to start with a follow-up on the choice by PACCAR of a different supplier as the preferred axle, obviously PACCAR is your largest customer in the Commercial Vehicles, about 30% of your revenue last year, what is the risk in going forward beyond just to reflect this mechanical direct impact here, is there any risk generally more to the relationship? I mean I was surprised to see that at the Investor Day of your competitor, they literally had the CFO of PACCAR present there and say why this relationship is so important and how it could progress going forward. Can you maybe give us a little bit of context on sort of like what happened and what's sort of like is potential mid-term impact beyond just the mechanical right away? Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, Emmanuel, I'll take that. This is Roger and Mark can follow up with some of the details. But first of all we have a great relationship with PACCAR. And for many, many years, we've enjoyed the predominant part of their business if you will by far the majority, nearly all of it. And it's not realistic going forward to think that in a competitive environment, that we all live in that there is not going to be some shifts once in a while and some decisions to move in a direction that gives maybe somebody preferential positioning. We in fact – we haven't announced that over the last year, but we in fact have won a number of preferential positions with other OEMs in the industry. And our Commercial Vehicle team has done an outstanding job at getting our technology in front of all the customers in the industry and that has yielded us preferential positioning in a number of those instances. We also have a long-term agreement with PACCAR, which was announced I think by our competitor as something new. For us, it's not something new, it's something relatively normal. So we don't see a long-term impact other than what we've already reflected in our numbers – in our growth numbers, where we're growing to $730 million over the next three years and what we think the impact there is. But maybe just before I turn it over to Mark, I'll just mention that, with our relationships with the fleet owners out there, if you will, that input from the fleet owners is what prompted us to invest and actually develop a new product that you've all seen at the shows, the global axle if you will to be a solution that gives them what they're looking for from a technology perspective. So we enjoy great relationships with our fleets, great relationship with PACCAR as well as the rest of the OEMs in the industry and we don't see any really further impact on than what you already see. Mark, is there anything to add to that?

Mark Wallace - Executive Vice President and Group President, On-Highway Driveline Technologies

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead with your question.

No, that's it. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead with your question.

And just – that's incredible. Just a point of clarification on this; so, I'm looking into your 2015 to 2017 sales backlog, the Commercial Vehicle piece of the backlog is pretty much nothing. Is that essentially netting out some good wins elsewhere to serve like losses there? And also on the – what are your plans for the unused capacity, that you have dedicated to the – to some of this Paccar business?

Mark Wallace - Executive Vice President and Group President, On-Highway Driveline Technologies

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead with your question.

Emmanuel, hi. It's Mark Wallace. At first, regarding the backlog and we contemplated, we call our pluses and minuses. But, also a big portion of the backlog that shrunk was due to programs that were being pushed out. If you look at countries like Russia, although we're not in Russia, we actually sell into Russia, out of Western Europe. Some programs were delayed there, programs delayed in India as well as in Brazil. So a big part of the backlog was mainly programs that were delayed. It's not that, we don't expect to get those wins, when they come about, but for now, until we get confirmation, we put them out of our backlog. Regarding capacities, really there is no change in capacity, given run rates we're seeing right now in industry, we don't see any need to shrink capacity and the reality part of our supply initiative, we undertook in 2014. We're actually creating more global flexibility for our Commercial Vehicle worldwide. So, we're actually are able to increase forging capacities that will have zero impact on Dana, but give us a lot more flexibility, when it comes to supplying customers at higher volumes and the traditional markets have shown in Class 8 here in North America.

Emmanuel Rosner - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Please go ahead with your question.

Great. Thanks for all the color.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

John Lovallo, II - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Hey guys, thank you for taking my question. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, John. William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, John.

John Lovallo, II - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

I apologize if this has been talked about, my line dropped. But the first question would be on effect of FX on the backlog. I think you went down to $1.15 on the euro. You have about 28% of the backlog dedicated or attributable to Europe, I should say, but the backlog doesn't seem to have changed, is that correct? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Hi, John, it's Bill. From a backlog perspective you're right, we don't go through every month and try to currency effect that. So there whether it would be some impact on that backlog, but again 28% of $730 million, I would say it's not as significant as what we're seeing on the full boat with respect to almost $2 billion in sales, $3.5 million in sale for the business. So you're right, there would be some impact but we update that on an annual basis. We do it from a production perspective, as well as from a currency perspective. So as we sit here today, some impact but we will give an update here at the end of the year.

John Lovallo, II - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. That's helpful. And then, following the divestiture of the Venezuela business, is this going to – I mean how does this affect how you service the South American market, is this going to have a negative impact on that? Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No, we don't think so, because our products are – this is Roger, sorry, John. Our products are still into those vehicles and if the vehicle production starts back up, we would be a supplier of this products just like we did under the old scenario. We would just do it with a new management team that's in place in terms of the company that they're running down there to supply the ultimate product to the customer.

John Lovallo, II - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. That's helpful. And then, finally maybe just an update on the acquisition pipeline, anything, how is the pipeline, in general, look? And what is kind of your focus in that regard? Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, so a great question. We're really encouraged, especially in terms for the last several months, with the work that we've been doing over the past several years, as we had mentioned, it takes many times several years to establish the relationships and to really get something moving. We've been working on it for a number of years now. And we're really encouraged with where some of the discussions stand. And as I had mentioned in my dialog, we actually just brought on a new head of M&A reporting to me in the organization, because we feel that the opportunities are in a better spot than maybe they have been in the past couple of years and we're very much encouraged by that.

John Lovallo, II - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Great. Thanks very much, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Long with Stephens. Please go ahead with your question.

Justin Long - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question.

Thanks, and good morning, guys. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Justin.

Justin Long - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question.

First question, I wanted to ask if you could provide some more color on how your European Off-Highway revenue in 2014 split between construction, Ag and mining. And then maybe if you could talk a little bit more about the visibility you have in each one of those end markets since we head into 2015? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, Justin, this is Bill. I think take a look at of our European business, in total for our – excuse me, for our Off-Highway business, it's about $570 million in 2014, some of that distribution is going to be weighted more a bit to the construction side of the house, and then followed by Ag. So if you kind of look at those are the two big players there, that would be the distribution of the business. What we saw in Europe, obviously from an Ag perspective, certainly a downturn from a demand perspective during the course of 2014, compared to 2013, high single digits, I'd say. And quite frankly construction was I would say bright side, stable to slightly up in Europe, so those two markets kind of moving in different directions. And I think the color as we move forward into 2015, I think we're looking at construction kind of stable, on the Ag, as Roger mentioned in his comments, probably a further downtick, but largely in the larger units or the combines, if you will, the larger applications, which we don't have as much participation and given much of that is captive business. So, again, I think there's pressure on the Ag side in Europe; construction, I think we're looking at kind of even keel.

Justin Long - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Great. That's helpful color. And I wanted to also ask about the impact you feel like you could see to your business from the decline in oil prices over the last couple of quarters. I know, that's – part of the value proposition for many of your products is fuel savings. Does that create a tougher sell for some of your products in this market? I guess the flip side is, you have more money in the hands of the consumer. But if you could just walk through the puts and takes that you feel like you had to the business in the lower oil price environment that would be helpful. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, Justin, this is Roger. That's a great question, because we haven't seen any impacts in the shorter-term, obviously with what's happened in the recent several months, and the drop in the prices. But overall our strategy stays intact. We're working on product technology that helps our customers, if you will and the customers of our customers, to use less fuel for what they're trying to accomplish, whether it's in the Light Vehicle market or the Heavy Truck market or the Off-Highway market and less fuel is going to equate to less money overall in their business, being spent as an expense. Longer-term, I don't know that anybody really understands or knows, whether fuel cost will remain low for the short-term, medium-term or somewhat into the long-term, but long-term, we believe that a fuel economy play and emissions reduction play is going to be continued a great place to play, because even if the fuel cost remained relatively low, the regulatory framework is going to takeover and still be there regardless. So we're not seeing any less of an emphasis on fuel economy type products from our customers. And so we're not changing our strategy going forward to invest in those kinds of technologies.

Justin Long - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay, great. Thanks, Roger. Appreciate the time this morning.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brett Hoselton with KeyBanc. Please go ahead with your question.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead with your question.

Good morning, gentlemen. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Brett.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead with your question.

Just few quick questions here. First, EBITDA margin expansion or improvement or increase in your guidance in 2015 it seems to be primarily attributable to the Venezuelan divestiture, is that a fair statement? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Brett, it's Bill. Certainly it is, that was a breakeven expectation for that business. And from the perspective of maybe potentially higher margin, certainly our FX assumptions needed the impact there, but you are exactly right. Venezuela certainly we've been operating that just trying to get back to a breakeven position, which our team has done a great job on. And our expectation in 2015 was no different, given what we saw from an economic perspective.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. And then the free cash flow expectations are unchanged despite about a $20 million decline in the EBITDA expectation. So were there some particular offsets there or do you just simply move your expectations to kind of the lower end of the free cash flow range? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No, I think with respect to – you'll see a slight moment in CapEx for example, from a range perspective. We took down cash taxes a bit based on the jurisdictional profitability that we're looking at as well as when we look at Venezuela, what are those movements with respect to working capital there. So that's kind of a confluence of a number of factors, and we feel very good about that range.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. And then, finally, If I understood you correctly, earlier on your comment, that North American Class 8, you were kind of thinking like 300,000 units of production, 320,000 units of production this year. And that seems somewhat conservative relative to the order rate and relative to some other forecasts out there. And my question here is if we were to see a production rate in the 330,000 unit range or 340,000 unit range or something along those lines, how do we think about the potential impact on your sales, but more importantly your EBITDA? A lot of times you will find that there are certain inefficiencies, premium freight, overtime costs and that sort of thing, which significantly dampen, let's say the contribution margins as you move up into that upper range. So how do we think about higher production translating to higher sales and higher EBITDA at Dana?

Mark Wallace - Executive Vice President and Group President, On-Highway Driveline Technologies

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead with your question.

Brett, Hi, it's Mark Wallace, just relatively speaking on a North America basis, if you look at our mix of business, about 60% of our Commercial Vehicle business is here domestically, and we also have a large portion in Brazil. So even though, we've seen improvements and we're seeing higher rates today, the Brazilian market continues to mute our growth here in North America. Regarding our outlook, I mean as Roger mentioned already, we're probably at the top end of that 300,000 units to 320,000 units range, around 320,000 units. And I've been polling different people out in the industry as well. I think we're definitely expecting that, Q1 and Q2, remains at the rates that we're seeing today, which is elevated to around 340,000 units. But again, there is a lot of stress in the system today as I mentioned, we are adding some global flexible capacity that can help mitigate some of those short-term issues from our perspective. But I think ultimately there's still going to be some pressure in the system to run at these elevated levels for long-term. I mean if it stays at these higher levels, we would expect to see some revenue flow-through here in North America and the associated margin would be kind of normal margins that we expect to see here in North America, because again, as we mentioned the capacity we're bringing on will be pretty much fully on board in Q1. And so, we wouldn't expect Dana to be any type of issue for these higher run rates at this stage.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead with your question.

If we were to think about normal margins, would we think about 9.4% Commercial Vehicle Driveline margins or we'll be thinking 20% contribution margins?

Mark Wallace - Executive Vice President and Group President, On-Highway Driveline Technologies

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead with your question.

Actually when you look at that contribution margin, it is about 15% in the Commercial Vehicle business.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Fair enough. Thank you very much, gentlemen.

Mark Wallace - Executive Vice President and Group President, On-Highway Driveline Technologies

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead with your question.

Thanks, Brett. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Brett.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Sponheimer with Gabelli & Company. Please go ahead with your question.

Brian C. Sponheimer - G.research, Inc.

Analyst · Gabelli & Company. Please go ahead with your question.

Hi. Good morning, guys. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Brian.

Brian C. Sponheimer - G.research, Inc.

Analyst · Gabelli & Company. Please go ahead with your question.

Mark, if you could just so the rest of us can potentially understand, just the amount of these vocational axles that you sold in 2014 on a dollar basis?

Mark Wallace - Executive Vice President and Group President, On-Highway Driveline Technologies

Analyst · Gabelli & Company. Please go ahead with your question.

Actually, looking at the 46K's is probably in total revenue of 46K is about $100 million in total revenue for Commercial Vehicle for Dana. And we contemplate like I said, some competitive movements on the 46K and we don't see that being any change to our expected outlook. And again, as you know in Commercial Vehicle, most of the decision making especially on vocational axles happens at the fleet, and we do expect that we'll be able to continue with our robust products and our service network to continue to play a major role in that particular market.

Brian C. Sponheimer - G.research, Inc.

Analyst · Gabelli & Company. Please go ahead with your question.

Understood, so it's not all that large okay, okay. Thank you. And, Bill, you spent so much of the last two years, looking to restructure the balance sheet, change how you're restructuring from a financial perspective. You are in great shape from a net debt perspective. And you mentioned M&A. How do you picture yourself, framing return of capital, kind of on a going forward basis, relative to maybe where you saw things a year ago? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, I appreciate that, Brian. I think, certainly the company has spent a lot of time with respect to opportunities and alternatives with respect to the capital structure and certainly, what we've accomplished to date we are pretty proud of. As we move forward, certainly, part of the capital allocation process will be opportunities to invest in the business; you've seen that with respect to our capital spending, for example, to operationalize our backlog, but as also Roger mentioned, looking for opportunities, where we can get a higher and better return as well with respect to our inorganic initiatives that we may see over the next year or so. So that really is a big focus, but absent that, given the cash flow generation of the business, we'll continue to evaluate, whether from a shareholder value perspective, further share repurchases may be in order, and/or how we look at dividend yields. So I think it's kind of a factor of all those, Brian, as we move forward. But certainly, we've made a lot of progress over the last couple of years, with respect to the capital structure.

Brian C. Sponheimer - G.research, Inc.

Analyst · Gabelli & Company. Please go ahead with your question.

Right, okay. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Hey, thanks for squeezing me in. I remember during the presentation in Detroit you called for Commercial Vehicle Driveline market to be roughly flat year-over-year in 2015. But I see on slide 28 today, you're calling for a bit of growth across most of the Commercial Vehicle category. So I'm just curious if you feel any more positively about North America today than you did even a month ago? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, this is Bill, and I'll let Mark catch up here real quick. If you think about what the run rates we have been seeing, I think there is more, we feel more optimistic from a pure production perspective, in our comments, we had a range of 300,000 units to 320,000 units, in our comments today, we're probably at the upper end of that. Certainly there could be upside to that as we move through this; from a polling that's been going on from a marketplace perspective kind of the 340,000 units run rate could extend through the second quarter. So, yes, I think there is probably some upside with respect to pure demand if you will in North America.

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Last question at the end here, just on CapEx, forecasted ramp like 28% to 35% I think on the low end to the high end of the range there, despite flatter sales and more modest increase in EBITDA. How should investors think about that generally, is the ramp really to support revenue that comes on in 2016? And then how should CapEx trend in the years after 2015 does it actually, potentially decline after a couple of years, after you launch all the business currently in your backlog. How to think about that? Thanks. William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, I think if you look at from the uplift if you will in our expectations for capital spending is largely around our Light Vehicle Driveline business. And it's largely around operationalizing launches that they have this year and into 2016 as well. So once those kind of launches are through to 2016, depending on the success of that business, which has been very successful to date on opportunities, you could see some additional capital spending, but are we going to be in the zip code of 4.5% per year to 5% per year? Probably not. So we're seeing kind of an uptick now and certainly as we are turning the corner with respect to organic growth, we're going to make that investment. But I think over the longer-term, we wouldn't see an uplift, if you will, or a higher base level of capital spending, on an ongoing basis. But certainly, if the programs are available to us, not only in Light Vehicle Driveline, but around our other businesses, if the investment returns are there, we'll make the investment. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, Ryan, and maybe I…

Ryan J. Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.

Joseph R. Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for squeezing me in. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Joe.

Joseph R. Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Almost all of my questions have been answered. So maybe just one quick housekeeping one to wrap it up. If I just do the quick math on the $20 million lower EBITDA, it's about $0.09, so is there anything below the line that is offsetting that at all? William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think if you look at our EBITDA, there is not anything unusual with respect to that year-over-year move, Joe.

Joseph R. Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. William G. Quigley - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So what you're getting is the impact probably as you really think about it is the weighted averaging that's going on year-over-year. So as you know, when we purchase shares in the market, but you only get X benefit with respect to from accounting perspective on the EPS side. So I think what you're seeing there, quite frankly, is just the timing and trending of our share repurchase activity or expectations if you will over 2015.

Joseph R. Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. I will follow-up later with some others. Thanks, guys. Roger J. Wood - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. So for anyone that maybe left on the call, I'd just like to just say thank you for joining us this morning and we will see you next time. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.