Earnings Labs

Dana Incorporated (DAN)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 21, 2013

$37.46

-2.65%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.06%

1 Week

+1.70%

1 Month

+7.29%

vs S&P

+4.28%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Dana Holding Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2012 Webcast and Conference Call. My name is Brent and I will be your conference facilitator. Please be advised that our meeting today, both the speakers' remarks and Q&A session, will be recorded for replay purposes. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to begin the presentation by turning the call over to Dana's Director of Investor Relations, Craig Barber. Please go ahead, Mr. Barber.

Craig Barber

Analyst

Thank you, Brent. On behalf of the entire Dana management team, I would like to thank you for joining us this morning either by phone or on the webcast. With me today are Roger Wood, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bill Quigley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Also in the room is Mark Wallace, Executive Vice President and President of Light Vehicle Driveline; Aziz Aghili, President of Off-Highway Technologies. Before we begin, I would like to review a couple of items. Copies of this morning's earnings release and the accompanying slides have been posted on Dana's investor website for your reference. Today's call is being recorded, and the supporting materials are the property of Dana Holding Corporation. They may not be recorded, copied or rebroadcast without our consent. [Operator Instructions] Finally, today's presentation includes some forward-looking statements about our expectations for Dana's future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments here. Additional information about those factors can be found on our Safe Harbor statement. These risk factors are also detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual, quarterly and current reports with the SEC. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Roger Wood.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Thanks, Craig, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to report record financial results for Dana Holding Corporation in 2012. Sales for the year were more than $7.2 billion, even in the face of strong currency headwinds and weak second half demand in a few of our markets. Net income for the year was a record $300 million, and for the quarter, was $88 million, marking our seventh consecutive quarter of positive net income. We did have a tax gain in the quarter that Bill will talk about. But even without this gain, this was still a record earnings year for Dana. And our adjusted EBITDA margin was 10.8% for the quarter, 70 basis points higher than 2011 and in line with the preliminary results that we gave last month at the Detroit Auto Show. This strong margin performance, which also represents a record high for us, is a direct result of the actions we have taken to improve the business and to respond quickly to the changing market dynamics. That is, reducing costs and improving efficiencies in all areas of the business. At the same time, we were able to generate continued strong free cash flow of $325 million, another record for Dana. This ability to generate cash has allowed us to make $150 million voluntary contribution to our pension plans at the beginning of 2012, initiate a common dividend and also launch a common stock repurchase program last year. All of these actions show our confidence in the company and our commitment to delivering value through our shareholders. Turning to Slide 5, we have a look at our business by market and by region. This diversification allows us to manage volatility and leverage our products and technologies across more applications around the world. Our regional sales mix continues…

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Thanks, Roger, and good morning, everyone. Slide 14 provides a summary of Dana's 2012 fourth quarter financial performance with a comparison to the same period a year ago. Fourth quarter sales were $1.6 billion, lower than a year ago by $286 million, or about 15%. Unfavorable currency of about $40 million, lower commercial vehicle production in both North America and South America of about $140 million and the impact of program roll-offs in our light vehicle driveline segment of about $95 million were the primary contributors to the quarter comparisons. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $154 million, $29 million lower than last year. Continued cost discipline in light of the demand environment, as Roger noted, provided an offset to the impact of lower sales in the quarter, limiting the decremental margin impact to about 10%. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 9.6%, equal to our results a year ago. Net income totaled $88 million compared to $71 million a year ago. The current quarter benefited from a release of tax valuation allowances for our Canadian and U.K. operations of $54 million, reflecting improved operating performance and profitability in both of these jurisdictions. In 2011, net income also included a similar tax benefit of $8 million for our Spain and Mexico operations. Adjusting for these benefits in both periods, net income was lower in the quarter compared to a year ago, largely driven by lower gross margin of about $18 million, reflecting the impact of lower sales and an increase in SG&A, reflecting the increased employee incentive compensation expense in the quarter, as well as certain expense benefits that were realized in 2011. Diluted adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.38 per share compared to $0.42 in 2011, reflecting lower net income after adjusting for restructuring, certain amortization expenses…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Patrick Nolan with Deutsche Bank.

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Two questions. First, on the buyback. Could you give us some indication of what you expect, how you expect the remaining 235 on the authorization to be spread over the next 2 years? And second, on the backlog, can you just help us weigh out how that backlog rolls out over the next 4 years? I assume 2013 is actually slightly negative because of the roll-offs in off-highway?

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Yes. Yes, Patrick, it's Bill. Let me first speak to the share repurchase program. As you know here, we commenced execution under that program shortly after late October. Once the program was approved, moved through the year, we continue to move in the -- into 2013, executing under the parameters of the program as authorized by our Board of Directors. The tenor of that program is 2 years, and we obviously will continue to execute upon those parameters. But at the same time, as 2013 unfolds, we certainly may have an opportunity to continue to refine that program moving forward. With respect to new business that we've outlined for you here, if you think about it, 2013 probably is a slight headwind with respect to program roll-offs. But the program roll-offs are not reflected in this number. But if you think about some of the in-sourcing actions that we experienced, in particular the customer in off-highway, the new business will flow to the latter part of the 4-year outlook that we've put out. 2013, as you know from our sales comparisons year-to-year, slightly down largely due to the LV program roll-offs, as well as -- due to some off-highway in-sourcing actions. So this is going to be basically moving forward 2015, 2016, where we see that net new business moving into the top line.

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Got it. And second, just a follow-up on the backlog. It seems like -- I mean, the off-highway portion, the losses there, that explains why that underperformed as a percentage of the backlog relative to your current sales. But what about in the on-highway portion? It seems to be relatively -- it seems smaller than your current breakdown of sales.

William G. Quigley

Analyst

The on-highway portion being the LV?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

You mean the LV section?

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

The commercial vehicle, the 220. It seems a bit lower as a percentage of the backlog relative to your current sales mix.

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Oh, I think that's just normal course as to when programs are available to us to compete with, if you will, from a bidding perspective. We're not certainly concerned about that type of percentage. We think we're doing very well actually in the marketplace with respect to the commercial vehicle opportunities. So again, it may be light from a percentage in a particular year, just being 2012. But I think as we move forward, we're very confident in our capability in that end market with respect to both our manufacturing base, as well as our technology that we're placing in the markets. So again, I don't think it's anything that is peculiar to us, at least with respect to the opportunities that were available.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. That's right, Patrick. This is Roger. As Bill said, that cadence, there's nothing unusual -- or no underlying dynamics that are unusual in that cadence. It's the normal course of when programs are available, when programs are awarded and when new programs come online.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Denoyer with Wolfe Trahan. Timothy J. Denoyer - Wolfe Trahan & Co.: One more question on the backlog quickly. In terms of the margin profile, given the segment mix with the light vehicles as the lowest-margin business being the biggest piece of the backlog and off-highway coming down as one of the higher-margin businesses, can you talk about the margin profile of the new business? I mean, I'm guessing it's going to be higher margins than average, but is it enough to offset that segment mix?

William G. Quigley

Analyst

I think the -- Tim, this is Bill Quigley. I think, with respect to the distribution of new business, to your point, being somewhat heavily weighted to LV, at least for 2012, make no doubt about it, I think you've seen the improvements that have been made in the light vehicle driveline business over time. And certainly, our expectation is that margin profile will continue and that, in fact, this net new business will further fuel an opportunity moving forward into the future from a margin perspective. With respect to the other distributions, PTG and CV obviously making up the pie chart here, given the margin profile as well as businesses as well, we think this does actually move us forward on that margin profile over the next several years as we continue to improve the businesses. We don't look at the LV business being a negative in that environment, rather, a positive as we continue to work within the business unit from an efficiency perspective, as well as obviously from technology that is being introduced into that business.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes, Tim. This is Roger. I -- just to reflect a little to what Bill was saying there, the combination of the efficiencies and the productivity gains and the work on the materials side of the business that our management teams in each one of these segments have done are improving the cost picture, if you will, in each segment. And the other side of the growth profile, in terms of the top-end value creation, as we have maintained, we focus on those market value drivers and put our technology investments in that side of the business. So as our folks in each one of the businesses are winning new business out there, they're really targeting the value that they're able to create for the customers, and the margin expansion is coming from both sides of that. So the mix of the new business around that pie chart is not -- I mean, that mix could be almost anything and still support the margin expansion of the business because each one of the 4 businesses are on the right track. Timothy J. Denoyer - Wolfe Trahan & Co.: And one question on, just a more detail-oriented one, on Venezuela. With the devaluation of the currency, did that have any impact on guidance? Is that something that you guys had sort of included in your January guidance in general? I know that happened more recently.

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Yes, Tim. We recently contemplated that type of devaluation in Venezuela. It was included in our guidance. And obviously, the flow of the devaluation and then the recovery will certainly impact quarters. But the overall, for the full year 2013 of that devaluation, of that magnitude, was contemplated in our 2013 financial guidance.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

I would like to talk a bit about capital allocation and use of cash. A few things. Just a housekeeping, about how much of the cash is U.S. domicile versus offshore?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Barclays.

Brian, our U.S. -- this is Bill Quigley. I'm sorry. We missed the latter part of that.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

Oh. For your current cash balance, how much is in the U.S. versus in offshore non-U.S. entities that you'd have to use up some of your NOLs if you were to repatriate?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Barclays.

Ah, got you. We'll talk about it from a North American perspective. Of the $1.35 billion, which is before the marketable securities, about $450 million is resident in North America. So that includes obviously U.S., Mexico and Canada. So again, a pretty significant portion of the cash is within the Americas. And then Europe would be the second largest cash position for Dana.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

Okay. And within that -- so you could cover the $250 million from current North American domicile cash. As we think beyond the $250 million and about the cash on the balance sheet, I guess a couple of questions. One, do you have a target leverage ratio in mind? Two, to the extent that you're below that or will earn your way below that, where do you plan on putting the extra cash to use? Where are you in terms of bolt-on acquisitions versus CapEx, versus the potential for either increases in dividends or share repurchases?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Barclays.

Sure, Brian. It's Bill again. With respect to...

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

[indiscernible] preferred is in there as well.

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Barclays.

Of course. They're all shareholders at the end of the day. With respect to -- we've had a lot of discussion about this, even going back to January, the Deutsche Bank conference. We've set up a number of channels with respect to shareholder return, one being obviously the implementation of the common dividend on the common shareholders, the announcement of the share repurchase. We've commented a number of times that this was a step-in, a measured step approach with respect to deployment of capital. And then obviously, we'll continue to invest in the business. With respect to investment in the business, you can see our capital investment highlights here, as well as from an inorganic opportunity, we certainly look to bolstering actions as available and within reason to continue to action, if you will, our 3 core competencies moving forward. With respect to target leverage, while the company certainly can take on additional leverage, it's got to be for the right reason with respect to inorganic opportunities. But at the same time, from a target perspective, we certainly could take on additional leverage as we move forward. Given the cash flow generation of the business, given the balance sheet as currently structured, the actions that we have underway, we continue to evaluate all alternatives available to us with respect to both shareholder return initiatives, as well as opportunities to continue to move the business forward and to continue to generate higher returns ultimately for the shareholders. So with respect to where we can go with this, we certainly have set up channels to allow for incremental returns to the shareholders. And as we move forward into 2013, we're going to continue to evaluate how we best do that in light of our business objectives to grow the business, as well as our objectives to increase shareholder value over time.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

And does the -- within the $250 million, I assume that doesn't include whatever steps you might take, vis-à-vis the [indiscernible]

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Barclays.

You're fading away.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst · Barclays.

Brian, we can barely hear you.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

I'm sorry. Does the $250 million current authorization -- is that meant to cover anything you might do with the convertible preferred shares? Or would that be a separate authorization and decision?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes. That share repurchase was a common share repurchase program.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

I guess just following on -- a little bit on the preferred. I mean, I think they become convertible at your option this year. Obviously the -- I don't think the share price is there yet. But if it were to move there, is that something you'd consider? Or is there -- are there some actions you could take even if the share price doesn't reach there this year?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Yes. To your point -- I mean -- I think it's post-January -- this month actually, there is a conversion feature we can mandate, if you will, if the stock is at $22, $24 or so for 20 consecutive days. So certainly, that would be an event -- from our perspective, to move the stock in that environment would be a positive. With respect to -- absent that, are there opportunities available to us with respect to the preferreds? Again, it's all part of the capital allocation discussion that we just spoke of with Brian on how we could move forward to address the capital structure in total. So we don't exclude the preferreds out of our thought process and/or alternatives that we evaluate. But certainly, we would think, in the best interest, getting that stock price above $22 and having a normal conversion would be a great benefit for Dana.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Yes, Joe. This is Roger. Just to reflect on that a little bit, as Bill had mentioned, we evaluate continuously a number of options that are available to us in that regard. But in every evaluation, it is the holistic approach to all of our shareholders that we make sure that we're looking out for when we look at those options. So I would say there's no option off the table. And whatever option we end up exercising at some point in time will be one that is beneficial for all of our shareholders.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Okay, great. And if I could ask one more question on the backlog, does that include any additional business from the DDAC JV? Or is that a consolidated revenue figure?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Yes. This is a consolidated revenue figure. So it would exclude any wins, if you will, with respect to our DDAC operations.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Okay. And then just -- on the decremental margins that you mentioned this quarter, I mean, is that sort of the right run rate we should think about here, especially in the first half as volumes continue to be weak? Or are there -- is management to that sort of level? Or is there still a little bit more you can do, I guess, specifically in off-highway, where it looks like pricing was still a positive this quarter?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Yes. I think -- and we appreciate the observation with respect to, I think, the good work that was done across all the business units with respect to managing that decremental. I think as we move forward into 2013, is that the right number? We're pleased with that number. But I think depending on the business and the -- obviously, we have different margin profiles for each business, and that number could be more severe, if you will, depending on what business it is, or lessened by a particular mix of another business. But in general, we've talked about contribution margin impacts of anywhere from 15% to 20%. I think there was a significant amount of work done in the fourth quarter in anticipation of some of the end market environments that we were operating in. We had expected that we were able to really offset the decremental sales, posting up the margin result that we did have. So long-winded, 15% to 20% contribution margin has been somewhat of our position with respect to a consolidated level. Certainly, good performance in the fourth quarter, but I wouldn't set that necessarily as the floor.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

John Lovallo - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Sorry about the mix up there with John Murphy. That was my fault. I apologize.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

No, that's okay.

John Lovallo - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Just -- first question would be on -- given some -- the softness clearly in the commercial vehicle side. I was wondering if you could give us an idea of capacity utilization levels perhaps by region in that business.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Well, we'll give it a try. That's a really difficult question as -- we've been asked that a number of times across our business segments. And because our -- the product portfolio, if you will, in each one of the segments is varied from relatively low dollar items to sometimes relatively really high-dollar items, it's difficult to answer that. So from a capacity utilization standpoint, same as the different products in there, we have different levels of capacity in the plants. So as you know, the volatility in the industry, especially in North America last year, was pretty severe. We started the year at about a 310,000 run rate and ended the year at about a 231,000 run rate, and we expect this year to kind of reverse that trend throughout this year. And we were able to meet the demand in the beginning of the year last year, and our folks did a really, really nice job of making sure they held the decrementals on the way down through the demand at the end of the year. So we can't really give you a number on that because it's a bit difficult to mention. But suffice to say, that we were able to meet the demand at the pretty high levels at the beginning of last year, and we anticipate being able to do that again. We hope they come back as soon as possible. Mark Wallace, do you have any further light on that?

Mark E. Wallace

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

No. John, I think we've talked about this in the past. Back in 2011 and 2012, we were able to support our customers' significant increases in demand, both from an assembly plant standpoint, as well as our vertically integrated platforms and our supply networks. So we stand ready and prepared what we believe to be obviously an improvement this year over last year in volume, but it is very challenging to give you one specific number to cover all the capacities we have globally.

John Lovallo - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Okay. That's helpful, guys. If I could just ask one more here, how are you thinking about potential cash dividends in DDAC in 2013?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Oh, I think from a -- this is Bill. Certainly, the market in China was certainly not favorable for DDAC as well as any other competitor with respect to the builds there. I think as we look to 2013 -- much work was done on a much lower sales environment in 2012 to lean out the cost structure there as much as possible. But as we look to 2013, it's more of continuing the cost initiatives that we have, working with our partner there, as well as looking for somewhat of a recovery in 2013. But we're not calling anything really significant to date as we look to the market. So from a dividend perspective, that probably wouldn't be our first priority in 2013, rather, continue to improve the operations. So that business, much like our businesses at Dana from a consolidated perspective, can be as flexible as possible in a pretty volatile demand environment. So I wouldn't look to forecast any type of cash dividends, if you will, from DDAC in 2013.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Nesvold with Jefferies. H. Peter Nesvold - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Can you talk maybe a little about what the order board looks like right now in CV for 1Q, particularly in North America? And is there anything -- I mean, I guess I'm looking at this as potentially the most volatile quarter for the year in CV, assuming we start to see the orders pick up midyear. And is there anything in particular that you're doing differently this quarter to perhaps accommodate that volatility?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Peter. This is Roger again. As I just mentioned in the last question, the slope of the 2012 demand in North America specifically went all the way from about 310,000 in the first quarter down to 231,000 in the fourth quarter from a run rate perspective on a quarterly basis, and we expect this year to kind of reverse that trend and trend back up. In the first quarter, we've seen just that expectation as we laid it out to you, and we do have a sense that things are picking up. Our customers are telling us that their quoting activity is ramping up dramatically, and they're seeing some of that come in. We haven't changed anything from the way that we are running the operations right now. Because until we actually see the releases, we won't be ramping anything up there dramatically. But we do expect to see that. So if you think about 2012 and 2013 as kind of like a bowl shaped, kind of sloping down in 2012 and sloping back up in 2013, that's kind of how we would expect the rest of the year to unfold. H. Peter Nesvold - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Yes, it's okay. Yes, it sounds like I missed some preceding comments there. And my -- a follow-up question. The Volvo-Dongfeng tie-up that happened 1 month or 2 ago, can you maybe just speak to some of the opportunities there? I mean, Volvo, I guess historically in Europe, has been more levered towards Maretour [ph]. But clearly, you have a relationship with Dongfeng. Are there any supply agreements that are sort of in place already? What are the other opportunities as you look forward?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. No agreements that are in place as of yet, but we are pretty excited about the tie-up that has happened there because we think that we have products of value that are going to be able to help that relationship as we move forward and certainly in the local market there in China. But Dongfeng also has reach outside of China, and we're optimistic that we'll have opportunities available to us.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Archambault with Goldman Sachs.

Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I guess just building on one of the last questions there, your guidance has about 60 bps of margin improvement and for the -- on a full year basis. Wanted to just get a better sense of how the cadence of that is, because I think, to the answer you just gave, you're probably going to have sort of steeper volume headwinds in the first half relative to the second half, or may be just be harder to expand margins despite all the segment cost performance you've got. So maybe just a little bit of color on how that calendar works out would be helpful.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes, Patrick. Thanks. This is Roger. We would expect the cadence of that improvement to follow exactly what you had just mentioned. We see that progressing throughout the year in terms of better production environment, if you will. And because of the way our operations are being run, our folks, again -- I'm impressed with the job that they've been able to do to variable-ize that business and hold those decrementals. And because of that, they are going to be able to perform as the production environment improves throughout the year. So again, it would -- should follow, I think, the path that we just laid out on the sales side.

Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. And one -- it was touched on, and excuse me if I missed it, but on the buyback cadence -- again, you might have said it in one of your earlier answers, is there kind of a '13, '14 kind of split that we're thinking about? Because it is -- I guess the October was a -- the announcement was a 2-year program, right?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes. Correct. It was a -- Patrick, it's Bill. It was a 2-year program. We've not necessarily provided the flows on how we looked at that. We're certainly going to continue to execute in the marketplace from an opportunistic perspective, but we certainly started in a very measured manner and we'll continue to do that and execute that into 2013. But we're not providing any type of absolute cash flow impact over the 2-year period.

Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay, understood. And one last housekeeping one, if I may, just on Venezuela. I know it's probably just a tiny thing, but it -- from other companies that have dealt with the same thing, it seems like there's 2 impacts. Right? Like a translation impact that's onetime, and an ongoing impact as you're repatriating profits at a lower rate. Is there -- can you give us a sense of the kind of the split of those 2 things? And is the onetime translation going to be a special charge? Or just how are you thinking of taking that?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes. Patrick, it's Bill again. Certainly, one of the questions was, have we contemplated it in our guidance. We certainly did, the devaluation for Venezuela. With respect to -- there are 2 impacts to your point. There's a translation impact. So from a net monetary position, we'll have a charge in the first quarter. And then on an ongoing basis, from an inflation perspective or just translation again in our earnings, there'll be an impact as we move forward. Both of those impacts, though, we will work to and continue to work to recover with respect to customer arrangements and discussions. So from that perspective, one, was contemplated in our guidance. Two is we've got recovery initiatives in place with respect to, over time during the course of 2013, to mute the impact. To your point, though, it's probably, without providing numbers because we're still going through all of the rules that were put into place with respect to this devaluation -- but it'd probably be about -- given our net assets there, probably a 50-50 split in the first quarter as we move forward.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Brett Hoselton with KeyBanc.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Bill, I was hoping you could humor me by allowing me to run through a little math here and then help me out with this. So my belief is that a 1x net leverage ratio is a very conservative net leverage ratio even for a cyclical business. You had generated $781 million in EBITDA, you got $215 million of current net cash. So if I take $781 million times 1 plus $215 million, I end up with nearly $1 billion of what I would consider to be available -- or capacity let's say, borrowing capacity. You're going to generate nexus of $250 million in free cash flow each year over the next 2 years, probably more in 2014 because you don't do the restructuring or pension as -- maybe to the degree. So adding another $500 million, I've got kind of $1.5 billion of cash. There's a lot. And I think what everybody is kind of grappling with here on the call is, what are you going to do with that? That's a lot of cash. I mean, are you expecting to do a transformational acquisition? Or should we anticipate that, gosh, a lot of that is going to come your way in the form of some sort of -- whether it be a dividend, share repurchase or something along those lines.

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Yes, I think your math is -- certainly, I would never question your math, Brett, as you laid it out. And that's taking the 2014 with respect to free cash flow. But certainly, into 2013, our forecast of $240 million to $260 million certainly would result in an increase in cash balance. And I think as we've moved forward since late October, we've continued to look at the capital structure. We continue to look at investment opportunities that we may have with respect to inorganic opportunities. Those will kind of come and go. I don't believe at this point in time we would look to any type of transformational approach with respect to Dana. I think we've been very focused on continuing to look for opportunities to bolster the 3 core competencies that we take to the market, that being driveline, sealing and thermal. I think we're sticking to that principle here in the near term. So by default, from a shareholder perspective, we believe we'll continue to be in a position to evaluate and return capital, if you will, to the shareholders. Timing, form and amount, I think that's something -- as we unfold 2013, we'll continue to evaluate how we should look to do that. But your math is impeccable.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

You're obviously a very experienced CFO. And so as you kind of take a step back and you evaluate a company like a Dana, and I'm not saying this is your target, but what do you think is a reasonable net leverage ratio for a company like a Dana or any other auto -- or commercial vehicle supplier?

William G. Quigley

Analyst

It will only be my opinion with respect to other commercial vehicle suppliers or other competitors. But I think from the perspective of Dana, given the business units and the markets that we participate in, putting a bright line number out there, things can change but, at the same time, looking at the capability of the company from a cash flow perspective. Certainly, I think one of the other questions was does a 2 turn make some sense? I think the company can certainly handle that type of leverage, but it's a leverage to ensure that we're moving forward. So I wouldn't comment on what other peers or other suppliers should be targeting or not. But certainly, the company can obviously take on additional leverage.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then, Roger, with regards to the new business backlog, thank you very much for publishing that. So it looks like over the next 4 years, you're basically thinking, "Look, we can drive a CAGR kind of in a flat production environment of around 3%." And I think that is pretty consistent with what you've been saying. Is that -- is my interpretation correct there?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. I think that's correct, Brett. We've done a lot of work in the last couple of years to bolster the foundation here in terms of the technology offerings and correlating them to the value being created. And our customers are beginning to recognize those, and the activity that we have on the new business side of the business has been increasing for us. But for the current results that we reported here today, that is correct.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then net net, the impact on margins, the impression I got talking with you over the past 6 months to 9 months has been that generally speaking, this net new business backlog should be accretive to margins. Is that a fair statement?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Very fair.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then finally, as we think about it -- I mean, 4 years is a long time and -- at least for my cat. And as I think about that out-years, is there a possibility that we could see some upside to those numbers? I mean, is there some contracts that you're still bidding on that could add to that number? Or is the $900 million probably kind of in the ballpark of what you are really likely to realize?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Well, there's always a possibility. And as I said, the activity that we see is pretty good. We're really excited about the activity that we see out there. But there's always changes, gives and takes throughout the time period. But we're optimistic, and we want to provide a number to you that you can rely on. And that's the number that we've provided here. But there's certainly opportunity for us to do further than that as we move forward.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Roger Wood for any closing remarks.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Okay. Well, I just want to take a second and thank everyone. We're really excited about what we were able to deliver in 2012. We're super excited about 2013 and continuing the trend to performance and delivering on what we've committed to the outside. And I just want to thank you for your support, and we'll talk to you again soon. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.