Earnings Labs

Dominion Energy, Inc. (D)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 29, 2010

$62.75

-0.24%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-2.23%

1 Week

+0.09%

1 Month

-3.24%

vs S&P

-5.37%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Dominion's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. On the call today, we have Tom Farrell, CEO, and other members of senior management. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Snyder, Director of Investor Relations for Safe Harbor Statement.

Gregory Snyder

Analyst

Good morning, and welcome to Dominion's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. During this call, we will refer to certain schedules included in this morning's earnings release and pages from our third quarter earnings release kit. Schedules in the earnings release kit are intended to answer the more detailed questions pertaining to operating statistics and accounting. Investor Relations will be available after the call for any clarification of these schedules. If you've not done so, I encourage you to visit our website, register for email alerts and view our third quarter 2010 earnings documents. Our website address is www.dom.com/investors. In addition to the earnings release kit, we have included a slide presentation on our website that will guide this morning's discussions. And now for the usual cautionary language. The earnings release and other matters that will be discussed on the call today may contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts, estimates and expectations. Also on the call, we will discuss some measures of our company's performance that differ from those recognized by GAAP. Those measures include our third quarter operating earnings and our operating earnings guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2010 and 2011, as well as operating earnings before interest and tax, commonly referred to as EBIT. Reconciliation of such measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures we are able to calculate and report are contained in our earnings release kit. I will now turn the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Mark McGettrick.

Mark McGettrick

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call this morning is our CEO, Tom Farrell, and other members of our management team. On today's call, I will discuss the earnings results for the third quarter, our outlook for the fourth quarter, full year 2010 and full year 2011. Tom will briefly update you on regulatory proceedings and operational activities. We will then take your questions. Dominion had a very strong third quarter. Our operating earnings were $1.03 per share, which was near the top of our earnings guidance range of $0.99 to $1.04 per share. As we referenced on last quarter's call, our third quarter guidance already reflected the above-normal weather for July, but warmer-than-normal weather for August and September added $0.04 per share relative to our guidance range. The impact from weather was partially offset by major storm expense and reliability investments in Virginia. When comparing our results to the third quarter of 2009, our operating earnings were $0.04 per share higher. Higher revenues from rate adjustment clauses, favorable weather in our electric service territory and higher PJM ancillary service revenues were offset by reduced merchant generation margins, higher storm damage expenses and the absence of earnings from our Appalachian E&P business. GAAP earnings were $0.98 per share for the third quarter. The principal difference between GAAP and operating earnings is an adjustment to the interim tax provisions in accordance with FIN 18. A summary and a reconciliation of GAAP to operating earnings can be found on Schedules 2 and 3 of the earnings release kit. Now moving to results by operating segment. At Dominion Virginia Power, third quarter EBIT was $217 million, which was slightly below the $224 million to $244 million range included in our guidance. Favorable weather was offset by higher storm…

Thomas Farrell

Analyst · KeyBanc

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Our operating and safety performance continued to be strong during the third quarter. We finished the quarter again as the top-rated company in the Southeast in employee safety performance. The fossil and hydro utility fleet achieved a year-to-date equivalent forced outage rate of 2.7% through September, which is its best on record. Our nuclear fleet achieved a third quarter capacity factor of 97%, excluding refueling outages. Our Kewaunee Nuclear power station in Wisconsin won the American Nuclear Society 2010 Utility Achievement Award for Outstanding Performance in Plant Operations. Kewaunee was recognized for demonstrating outstanding performance in operations as the top-performing plant and as the plant showing the most improved and sustainable performance in overall operations. We are pleased with our 2011 to 2015 regulated infrastructure growth plan we laid out in early September. Our five-year plan identifies over $2 billion in growth capital investments from across all of our regulated businesses. Our plan continues to develop on schedule and on budget. The Bear Garden combined cycle plant was 85% complete at the end of the third quarter. All major equipment is in place and construction continues per plan, with about 550 workers on site. Assembly of the gas turbine is complete with commissioning progressing to support a first fire later this year. The 580-megawatt combined cycle plant is scheduled for commercial operation in the spring of next year. Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center was 74% complete at the end of the third quarter. The 585-megawatt project is proceeding according to plan with over 2,000 workers on site. The steam turbine generator and the main transformer were delivered and placed under foundations, which represents the last of the major engineered equipment deliveries. The plant is scheduled for commercial operation in 2012. We…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc

Can you discuss how much capital and kind of the timing around the Mt. Storm-Doubs?

Thomas Farrell

Analyst · KeyBanc

The Mt. Storm-Doubs line is included in the $10.2 billion program we've previously announced, and that will run around $350 million to $400 million.

Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc

You can start that when sale is done, is that the constraint?

Thomas Farrell

Analyst · KeyBanc

We'll have to obviously get permission from -- first, it has to be included in the PJM plan, then we'll seek permission here in Virginia.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Hugh Wynne with Sanford Bernstein.

Hugh Wynne - Bernstein Research

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

A couple of questions. First was on Page 12, Schedule 4, the reconciliation of Q3 '10 earnings to Q3 '09 earnings. When I back out the favorable impact of weather, it seems that earnings for the quarter are down $0.10 relative to last year. And it appears -- this is what I wanted to sort of get your view on. It appears that basically what we're seeing is good organic growth at the regulated operations offset to a considerable degree by the erosion of the generation gross margin. Kind of a pattern, I think, that we've seen over the last several quarters. I just wanted to get your view as to whether that's a fair characterization or not?

Mark McGettrick

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

Hugh, this is Mark. Just a couple of comments around that. One, as you look out quarter-to-quarter, make sure you take into consideration, too, that we had E&P earnings in the third quarter of last year, and we have no E&P earnings.

Hugh Wynne - Bernstein Research

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

That's the $0.03 of gas and oil disposed operations?

Mark McGettrick

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

That's correct. We also had an unusual storm restoration period in the third quarter of this year; we did not last year. So adjusting for those two. More specifically to your comment, we've said for some time that our regulated growth business has strong trajectory going forward and that we're bottoming out in terms of a decline in our merchant generation business from '10 to '11 into '12. So I think the way you look at it is correct, but we see the merchant generation business reaching a bottom. And based on current forwards, we should see some recovery going forward on the merchant business.

Hugh Wynne - Bernstein Research

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

And that bottom is a 2011 bottom in your view or...

Mark McGettrick

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

Could you repeat that?

Hugh Wynne - Bernstein Research

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

In 2011, do you see it bottoming out or...

Mark McGettrick

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

I think we'd see it bottoming out in '11.

Hugh Wynne - Bernstein Research

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

And then the second question, I was just looking at Page 16, your consolidated statement of cash flows. Cash provided by operating activities is down by about $1.1 billion or slightly more than a third. I wonder if you could just shed some light on what are the big drivers of that drop?

Thomas Farrell

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

I'm going to let Scott Hetzer answer that.

G. Scott Hetzer

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

A few drivers. One, deferred fuel was a big source of cash in '09 and is not in '10. Also, we had a $259 million contribution to the pension plan in '10. We also had the impact of the rate settlement this year. But importantly, don't forget that we took in over $4 billion in proceeds from the sale of E&P and Peoples, which doesn't get picked up in the operating activities. Yet, you see the $2.5 billion reduction in cash flow from the gain on the sale of E&P. So the benefit of that is down in investing activities, the hurt up in operating activities. Overall, we're very pleased with cash flow, and cash position of the company remains very strong.

Hugh Wynne - Bernstein Research

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

And then this rate settlement number, that is the -- can you explain that?

G. Scott Hetzer

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

That's just the cash that's gone out as a result of the rate settlement earlier.

Hugh Wynne - Bernstein Research

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

These are the rate increases that you're booking to the revenue line of the income statement, but what you're not actually collecting from customers or...

G. Scott Hetzer

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

These were part of the refunds that we agreed upon.

Hugh Wynne - Bernstein Research

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

Refunds that you're giving, right, exactly.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Lapides, Goldman Sachs.

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Analyst

Question on terms of hedging of the coal generation fleet. At what point do you just have to basically say, "I'm not going to hedge," meaning kind of which year, based on the uncertainty around environmental regulations and whether -- which plants or which units are operating or not operating? Where do you have to kind of pull back and say, "I literally can't risk layering on hedges and then having to buy myself out of them"?

Mark McGettrick

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

Michael, this is Mark. We don't have a specific time frame where we say we're not going to do it or not. We're very focused on the power markets and what the impact of the new environmental rules may have, particularly CATR [Clean Air Transport Rule], in '11 and 12 as we look at those. And we're in the market every day for coal. So obviously, the dark spreads are compressed on coal units right now, and we're more cautiously hedging than we have in the past. But we don't have, really, a line at saying that, at this point or at this level, we stay away. We anticipate what our runtime capacity is going to be every day at each going forward, and if we see the spreads being attractive, we'll go ahead and hedge and continue to average in.

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Analyst

By not hedging the New England coal for 2012 at all, are you basically making a price call, meaning that it's your point of view that, that market, that regional pricing levels are too low versus your fundamental view, versus your State Line coal hedging where you've hedged a decent amount at 2012?

Mark McGettrick

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

The markets are totally different, both the coal markets and the power markets. The spreads have been more attractive to us in the Midwest going out based on the price of PRB coal and the power prices. And in the Northeast, central App and Columbian coal, which is essentially what we burn there, they've been carrying a fairly high price. So we believe chances are better they will come down as opposed to go up. And so we think we'll take a more conservative and have taken a more conservative approach in NEPOOL versus what we do at State Line.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Daniel Eggers, Credit Suisse. Dan Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG: Going back to kind of the dividend increase for next year, and I know you guys have been talking about this for awhile, but can you just help frame what you think the growth rate is going to be as you look out over the next couple of years? It seems like expectations are '12 is going to look relatively flat, up a little bit, but flat to '11. Are going to leave room that the payout ratio could go up so you could have a more meaningful dividend growth on a sustained basis and then kind of normalize back down into the midpoint of the payout ratio beyond '12? Or how are you guys presenting that to the board as you guys look for an increase?

Thomas Farrell

Analyst · KeyBanc

First off, I think one of the things you said was incorrect from our viewpoint. We believe that '12 will be 5% to 6% growth over '11. So when we had been talking about the dividend payout ratio recommendation -- let's go back in time a little bit. In 2007, when we announced the sale of the E&P business and our legislature re-regulated in Virginia, we thought we could sustain a 55% payout ratio. Under those circumstance, we would work our way to that by 2010, which we achieved this year. As we decided to sell the rest of our E&P business, reducing the commodity exposure by an additional 20%, and looking out with what our regulated growth plans were, the way the PJM markets were looking at -- the PJM was looking at the Virginia growth rate, et cetera, we believed that the appropriate target for our earnings mix was closer to 75% to 80% regulated. And that the peer group there was more of a 65% dividend payout ratio. So the target became, by '12, 65%. 2011, as we've said since May, and as Mark just reiterated, it's going to be -- we expect lower earnings next year than this year because of the decline in the merchant business margins. That's exacerbated by the five large outages we have in our merchant fleet in '11, three nuclear refueling outages. As you can see from our hedging program in New England, '12, it's flat to '11. So the decline in the merchant margins should -- well, it's going to be greatly reduced, if not eliminated, in '12. And the underlying 7% to 8% growth in the regulated businesses will no longer be dampened by the decline in the merchant margins. Looking at all of those pieces combined and along with our decision to slow down the development in North Anna, allows us to pay a 65% dividend payout. We're looking through '11 because we know the plans are there. And so '11 should be about a 62.5% payout over the midpoint of this $3, $3.30 range, which will allow continued growth in the dividend payout in '12. And then we expect 5% and 6% growth ongoing, '13 through '15, based on the $10.2 billion worth of growth capital that we've explained starting earlier this call. Dan Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG: Are you seeing any kind of volumes coming through Cove Point at this point in time? And just remind us on the confidence that nobody goes back and reconsiders those contracts, given how low U.S. gas prices are?

Thomas Farrell

Analyst · KeyBanc

We don't ever discuss, really, the volumes through Cove Point. That's our customers' business. And we have contracts. We expect them to be adhered, too. But we have customers, we listen to our customers. But we don't really discuss the volumes through Cove Point. Dan Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG: Clearly the elections will reconfigure Washington to some varying degree for next year. But are you hearing any talk or what talk are you hearing from your people as far as looking to address both the dividend policy for next year, as well as anything as far as trying to preempt EPA action?

Thomas Farrell

Analyst · KeyBanc

Well, I'm not sure I have any better information than anybody else on that. But I think most people believe that President Obama's recommendation on the dividend taxation policy will be adopted, whether it's done in the lame duck session or early next year. As far as what goes on with the EPA, just I don't really have a comment on that at this point. EEI has been working very hard on that. We'll be talking about that at the financial conference next week.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our allotted time. Mr. McGettrick, do you have any closing remarks?

Mark McGettrick

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

Yes, thank you. Just a reminder that Our Form 10-Q is expected to be filed with the SEC later today, and our year end 2010 quarterly earnings release is scheduled for January 28. Thank you for joining us this morning.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude this morning's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines and enjoy your day.