Earnings Labs

Dominion Energy, Inc. (D)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Wed, Jan 30, 2008

$62.75

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Dominion's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. We now have Mr. Tom Farrell, Dominion's Chief Executive Officer and other members of management in conference. Please be aware that each of your lines is in a listen-only mode. At the conclusion of managements prepared remarks, we will open the floor for questions. At that time, instructions will be given as the procedure to follow should you want to ask a question. Before introducing Tom Farrell, I will turn the call over to Laura Kottkamp, Director of Investor Relations.

Laura E Kottkamp - Director, Investor Relations

Management

Thanks Lindsey. Good morning and welcome to Dominion's fourth quarter earnings conference call. During this call, we will refer to certain schedules included in this morning's earnings release, pages from our fourth quarter 2007 earnings release kit or pages from our 2008 earnings guidance kit. Schedules in our earnings release kit are intended to answer the more detailed discreet questions pertaining to operating statistics and accounting. Investor Relations will be available after the call for any clarification of these schedules. While we encourage to you call with questions in the time permitted after our prepared remarks, we ask that you use the time to address questions of a strategic nature or those related to 2008 guidance. If you have not done so, I encourage you to visit our web site, register for email alerts and view our fourth quarter 2007 earnings documents as well as our 2008 guidance kit. Our website address is www.dom.com/investors. Now for the usual cautionary language. The earnings release and other matters that will be discussed on the call today may contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filing, including our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecast, estimates, and expectations. Also on this call, we will discuss some measures about our company's performance that differ from those recognized by GAAP. Those measures include operating earnings before interest and tax, commonly referred to as EBIT, and operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization or EBITDA. Reconciliations of such measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures we are able to calculate and report are contained in our earnings guidance kit. I will now turn the call over to our Chairman, President, and CEO, Tom Farrell. Tom?

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you Laura and good morning everyone. Today, I'm going to highlight the key strategic actions and operational performance from 2007. It will positively affect our performance in 2008 and beyond. Addressed the status of our intended handed Peoples Hope divestiture and review expected regulatory developments in 2008. Our call will then deviate from past practice. Tom Chewning will recap our 2007 results, provide our 2008 guidance, and discuss our marketing process for Peoples and Hope. We will also have each of the business unit’s CEOs to discuss the drivers influencing their 2008 earnings prospects and contributing to our overall growth. On this topic you will hear from Jay Johnson, Head of Dominion Virginia Power; Paul Koonce, Head of Dominion Energy; and Mark McGettrick, Head of Dominion Generation. Scott Hetzer, our Treasurer will then discuss our expected financing activities in the coming year. Tom Chewning will then conclude our prepared remarks with comments about 2009 and our dividend policy. 2007 contained a number of milestones that we believe will have a positive impact on the Dominion in the immediate and continued future. With the sale of nearly $14 billion of our non- Appalachian E&P assets, we divested approximately 40% of our earnings stream and returned to a more regulated energy infrastructure company, one that is much less sensitive to the volatility of commodity prices and one that has more stable earnings. In light of this changed profile, in our outlook for future growth, we used the proceeds for debt repayment and stock repurchases. We realigned our remaining business segments. We significantly increased our dividend, and we completed a two-for-one stock split. Additionally, we saw the Virginia legislature established new regulations for utilities to address the growing need for power in the state and set new parameters and to ensure a…

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

Thanks Tom. Tom mentioned that 2007 was marked with many positive milestones from a CFO perspective that seems an understatement. The overall change in our business mix resulted in a forecasted 2008 operating earnings at the upper end of the pro forma we developed in October of 2006 before we announced our E&P divestiture process. Now that we have completed our business in management realignment, we will provide quarterly and annual earnings guidance in greater detail. We have formatted our guidance to illustrate how operating segments expect to grow their profit margins and how treasury expects to finance their growth. We believe this approach promotes simplicity and enhances granularity. 2008 will be the starting point for a number of uplifts. Within our first full year with the fuel pass through in Virginia. We will have a lower debt level on which to pay interest expenses going forward and we will realize higher capacity in energy prices in New England than we did in 2007. As a result we're able to provide operating earnings guidance of $3.05 to $3.15 per share for the full year of 2008, nearly 20% growth over our 2007 operating earnings. We are also providing operating earnings guidance of $0.89 to $0.94 per share for the first quarter of 2008. Before we get too far into 2008 guidance let me recap briefly our results for last year. For the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2007, the company delivered solid returns lead by strong merchant energy margins and strong regulated electric sales. Interest expense savings resulting from our debt retirements and share accretion due to our common stock repurchases. We recorded operating earnings of $0.52 for the quarter and $2.56 per share for the year. GAAP earnings for the quarter were also $0.52 while GAAP earnings…

Jay L. Johnson - Chief Executive Officer, Dominion Virginia Power

Management

Thank you, Tom. Dominion Virginia Power, which includes regulated electric transmission and distribution as well as our own regulated retail activities, is expected to contribute approximately 21% to Dominion's 2008 operating segment earnings. As shown on page eight in the earnings guidance kit, its forecasted 2008 contribution to EBIT is roughly flat compared to 2007. In our electric utility distribution and transmission businesses, we expect weather normalized sales to add $10 million to $15 million. However, in 2007 favorable utility weather benefited us by about $11 million. Our forecast incorporates the usual assumption of a return to normal weather. So, the $11 million is an offset to our sales growth. DD&A in our utility business is expected to increase approximately $16 million year-over-year. This is a result of growing investment in infrastructure to serve the demand in our robust Virginia service territory. Despite the slowdown in the housing market, we still hooked up just shy of 49,000 new homes and businesses in 2007. Our 2008 distribution plan includes targeted investments in customer service and reliability. These investments should enable us to capture performance incentives above base rate ROEs established in the new regulation. Also included in our distribution plan for 2008 is funding for recently approved demand site management and conservation pilots which support the governor’s comprehensive Virginia energy plan. In Electric Transmission, we are awaiting the outcome of the FERC rate case filed this past fall. Under that filling, our transmission rates would be projected on a formula basis with a fixed ROE. The formula rate will be designed to cover the expected cost of service for each calendar year and will trued up based on actual costs. This enables us to minimize regulatory lag .We expect the FERC to take further action on this filing by the 1…

Paul D. Koonce - Chief Executive Officer, Transmission

Management

Thanks, Jay, and good morning. Dominion Energy which includes gas transmission, Dominion East Ohio, exploration and production and producer services is expected to contribute approximately 23% to Dominion's overall 2008 operating segment earnings. Collectively, these businesses are expected to produce EBIT growth of 16% in 2008 as shown on page nine of the earnings guidance kit. Separately, our gas transmission unit forecast EBIT growth of 7%. This growth is the result of a full year’s revenue related to our Northeast storage and Cove point ASU projects, and starting in November the Cove Point expansion projects. Also in gas transmission, we forecast another record year of gathering processing and extraction volumes and revenues. These revenues are approximately 80% hedged giving us confidence in our growth. We are also very pleased with the progress we are making in our Dominion East Ohio rate case. With a midyear implementation of new rates, we expect Dominion East Ohio’s 2008 EBIT to grow 10% over 2007. And finally, our E&P team is forecasting production growth of 16%. This will be achieved through a combination of development drilling plus an added emphasis on optimizing existing well deliverability. Adding to the production boost is an increase in average realized price of $1.63 per Mcf. These figures are available on pages 14 and 15 of the guidance kit. I am pleased with our year-over-year earnings growth forecast and now I’ll turn the call over to Mark McGettrick.

Mark F. McGettrick - Executive Vice President, Dominion Generation

Management

Thank you, Paul. Dominion Generation includes the Company’s regulated and unregulated generating plants and is expected to contribute 56% of the total operating segment earnings in 2008. As I review guidance for my segment I will be referring to page 10 in the earnings guidance kit and on that page you will see that Dominion Generation’s forecasted EBIT is expected to grow over 30% to approximately $2 billion in 2008. Much of this projected growth is coming from the regulated utility generation that serves our Virginia and North Carolina franchise service territories. In 2008, we expect this business to grow at EBIT contribution by $260 million to $300 million, which represents more than 40% growth over 2007. The primary driver for utility growth in 2008, is a benefit of $394 million resulting from a full year recovery of fuel expenses in Virginia. Additional benefits are projected to come from sales growth and fewer planned outage days in 2008, compared to 2007. Partially offsetting these positive items are a return to normal weather, increases in non-outage O&M and depreciation expenses, as well as other items which include an expected reduction in margins for 2008 and going forward, for FTRs, ancillary service revenues and wholesale contract revenues relative to 2007 levels. We also expect continued strong growth at our merchant generation business which is expected to produce EBIT in the range of $1.1 billion in 2008, which is more than 20% growth over 2007. Now that we are disclosing our merchant EBIT contribution, we believe that investors can appreciate more just how large, profitable and growing our merchant fleet is. For 2008, we expect a $160 million to $185 million worth of growth in EBITDA from our NEPOOL assets driven by high energy prices, and increased capacity revenues as detailed on pages 19 and 21 in the earnings guidance kit. This growth overcomes an additional plant refueling outage at Millstone and an extended outage for recovery out of Salem harbor station. Our non-contracted plants in PJM which includes our Fairless Works and State Line facilities are expected to increase the EBITDA contribution in 2008, by $80 million to $90 million. The primary driver to this increase is the buyout of a long term PPA at State Line which was effective October 31, of 2007. 2008 EBITDA from the contracted plants which include our Kincaid, Kewaunee, Elwood, and Morgantown facilities is expected to decline, $40 million to $50 million driven mainly by a planned refueling outage at our Kewaunee nuclear plant and to buyout a State Line which would remove that station from the contracted category going forward. In addition to providing our merchant EBITDA profitability by region, and contract status, various schedules have been added or expanded in the guidance kit with additional disclosure on merchant statistics. We believe this additional information provides you with a clarity investors need to fully appreciate the value of our merchant assets. With that I will turn the call over to Scott Hetzer

Scott Hetzer - Senior Vice President and Treasurer

Management

Thanks Mark. Before I focus on our financial plans to support the business units growth you just heard about, let me make a few quick remarks regarding 2007. As Tom Chewning has already mentioned, the recapitalization of our balance sheet as a result of our E&P divestiture was a significant part of our transformational year. Of the proceeds we received from the sale, we used $6.3 billion to buyback stock, and $3.3 billion to buyback and or retire debt. On our November 1, earnings call, we talked about incendiary use of another $300 million to either buyback stock or reduce debt further. Given the delay in reducing debt levels with approach proceeds from the sale of Peoples and Hope, we have applied for $300 million to reduce our commercial paper borrowings. We are also very pleased with our reduced risk profile going forward and we are pleased to see S&P acknowledge this, when they upgraded our rating two notches from mid BBB to A minus. Now turning to 2008. The capital necessary to execute our business plan this year is expected to be $3.7 billion and you will see a breakdown between maintenance and growth capital on page 23 of our earnings guidance kit. Our operating cash flow more than covers our maintenance capital and dividend, but when you add in growth capital, we will have negative free cash flow. You have heard us say many times, that we plan to fund any negative free cash flow with a combination of debt and equity. When we are determining the balance between debt and equity, our decisions are driven by our targeted credit metrics, which include the typical adjustments made by credit analysts. In our three year plan, our targets continue to be funds from operations coverage of interest of greater…

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thanks Scott. Today, we provided you in our guidance kit, a great deal of clarity about our 2008 business drivers. This information should enable you to better evaluate the profitability of our businesses from an understanding of a relative contribution of the business lines within our operating segments. Also, we have enough confidence in our earnings drivers to introduce an initial 2009 operating earnings forecast range of $3.25 to $3.40 per share. This growth in earnings, combined with an anticipated 11% increase in our dividend rate for 2009, should result in a total return to shareholders that reflects the value of our new business profile. Drivers expected to positively affect our outlook, compared to 2008 include income from allowed return on equity for generation construction projects in Virginia. Higher contributions from our gas transmission and storage businesses highlighted by a full year of expanded Cove Point facility and one fewer planned refueling outage at Millstone. The benefits of these drivers will be partially offset by lower royalty interests natural gas production and increased interest expenses and dilution from new equity issue to support our earnings growth. Keep in mind that beginning in 2009 we will be entitled to recover cash coverage of financing cost and the allowed return on equity, of qualified construction projects in Virginia. On page 45 of our guidance kit, we have added an exhibit that illustrates how an investment in a project such as the Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center will translate to additional earnings and cash flow. That concludes their prepared remarks. Lindsey we are ready for questions. Question and Answer

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

Hi good morning.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Hey Dan.

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

Hey, first of all thanks for all the great detail, this is a tremendous amount of stuff to wade through. Tom, I wondered, just kind of pick your brain a little bit, the thought process by going ahead and re-looking to sell the LDCs, and kind of given the pretty dramatic change in company profile in Dominion today versus what it was when you guys first made that decision.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Dan, this is Tom Farrell. The reason why we decided to sell the LDCs in the first place has not changed. And that is that they were not going to add to our return on… increase our return on invested capital and approve it or at least to keep it even. We didn’t see any prospect of that changing over the long term. They are very good assets, and we expect to get good competition for them in the auction. But the original basis for selling them has not changed.

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

You made comments also, looking out as far as the April capacity auction here next week. What is your thought process as far as risk to the market of a demand response kind not delivering on commitments? And how do you guys strategize as far as committing your assets, given what seems to be a pretty reasonable concern.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

I will let Mark answer that in detail, but we think it is highly unlikely that the promises being made will be delivered. And that’s going to lead to probably, much higher energy prices than people are expecting in New England, in 2010 and ‘011, but I will give the details to you and Mark on how we are planning on handling all that.

Mark F. McGettrick - Executive Vice President, Dominion Generation

Management

Yes, Dan the capacity option is based on public information that’s out there. They are projecting peaks of 32,000 megawatts to 33,000 megawatts in this auction period, and the demand side resources that have been put forth are in excess of 3,000 megawatts right now, most of which don’t exist today and have to be put in place for the next two years. So, that is going to set a floor, we believe that is going to be fairly low and it is going to inhibit new generation from being built in the Northeast which we think gives us, considerably more value for the assets that we have. The challenge for us is going to be, how do we decide to hedge 2010 and beyond and we are currently looking at our options on that, because we really believe that if the demand side doesn’t show up, the first place you are going to see it is in a much higher energy price until the market can correct with additional capacity.

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

So, should we take from that, that it is… you are probably going lay off on the… the 1011 hedges for a while then?

Scott Hetzer - Senior Vice President and Treasurer

Management

But we want to see the final results from the auction, but as you can see from some of the scores we have, we are not significantly hedged right now in ’10 and I think we will be more cautious than usual in the Northeast pending the results of the auction.

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

Okay. And I guess what have you. Can you just talk a little bit about the coal hedging strategy, both in New England and in Virginia, and what you are seeing from a pricing and an availability perspective today?

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Okay. We will start with Virginia. We have always averaged in Virginia. We have met with our regulators and gone over that strategy but that hasn’t changed significantly over the years. We tried to go fairly long on contract particularly at fairly isolated locations like our Mount Storm facility. We are seeing increases in our coal prices for Virginia. As more coal continues to go overseas from Central Ap which is the main area we buy for Virginia. We have done some pretty significant things in Virginia to help hedge as well. We have built an import facility at our Chesapeake Energy Center where we can now take foreign coal out there as well as domestic coal, we have real access. So, we have good balance there and again we average in. If you look at the Northeast, we have essentially locked most of our coal in for the next two years in the Northeast. We are buying international coal and we are also buying Central Ap coal. One good thing for us there is we are putting on two scrubbers that will be operational here at the end of this quarter, early next quarter at Brayton, which gives us additional flexibility. We have also locked in long term transportation contracts, well beyond this period and we also have throughput contracts through the Turner One, Virginia which gives us international and domestic capability there. So I think on the grade point side based on international pricing which has gone up significantly lately. We will probably going to sit tight for a while, but that’s why we went fairly long to next two years to prepare for a potential uptick like that.

Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your questions, Mr. Eggers. [Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Merrill Lynch. Sir please go ahead.

Jonathan Arnold - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Sir please go ahead

Good morning.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Good morning Jon.

Jonathan Arnold - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Sir please go ahead

A quick question in terms of your assumptions on 2009 what have you assumed if anything in terms of timing of new rates in Virginia, is that more a 2010 event or is partial year impact, one way or another in ’09?

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Jonathan, we expect any rate adjustments to come into play late in 2009, it’ll be mostly a 2010 event.

Jonathan Arnold - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Sir please go ahead

So there is really nothing in this guidance for that shift?

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

No, we have made assumptions about where we expect the rate review to come out, which is we don’t expect any significant change in our revenue requirements in Virginia, in ’09 or going into 2010. We need to recall that the regulatory regime does call for a base rate review and which we believe will be, receive very fair and equitable treatment as we have always had in Virginia. And at the same time it’s a forward-looking though not a test year, you look forward into 2010, so that you reduce the regulatory lag. So all the costs we are anticipating into 2010 will be taken into account. Our capital expenditures will be taken into account and then you have the riders that will be coming into play at the Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center, in the other aspects that we… have been talking about earlier this morning. The transmission lines, the peakers and North Anna will probably be in play by that time.

Jonathan Arnold - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Sir please go ahead

And as a follow-up to that, have you, and if you they were to end up pushing you towards an ROE similar to the staff recommendation in the Virginia City case. Would you still be talking about the numbers in the range, which you published today?

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Jon, I only useful to speculate on something like that the staff has taken its position, we have taken our position and we will see how that comes out.

Jonathan Arnold - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Sir please go ahead

Okay. Could I just have one final thing, did, do you have a sense of what the4 Dominion Virginia Power in full jurisdictional earnings including generation, would have been in 2007 or some kind of sense earned ROE in ’07?

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

No.

Jonathan Arnold - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Sir please go ahead

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We thank you for your question sir. Our next question comes from Daniele Seitz of Dahlman Rose. Ma'am please go ahead. Daniele Seitz - Dahlman Rose & Co.: Thank you. I say its more of a general question, your, the coal plants that you are planning. Could you remind us of the timing of, when you are supposed to be starting construction and also what you see costs per kilowatt for the plant?

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Daniele the, we already had the public hearing on the plant. Last year the plant was found to be in the public interest by the State Corporation Commission, that was actually 2006, I guess. And the evidentiary hearing begins next Wednesday in Virginia, should take three or four days. We expect a decision from the State Corporation Commission in April, by April, and we are prepared to commence construction immediately. It’s a 585-megawatt plant. Daniele Seitz - Dahlman Rose & Co.: Okay. And at this time roughly your cost per Kilowatt for the plant is roughly how much?

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

It’s about $3,000 a KW; our revised filing with the regulators estimated recorders cost this plan to be about $1.8 billion. Daniele Seitz - Dahlman Rose & Co.: Great. Similarly if you are looking at the, at your nuclear plants and the timing has, when do you sense that you will be able to put a finger on the potential cost of that plant. Its obviously too early because of the uncertainty regarding the timing but could you let us know when this could happen?

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Danielle, we, we’ve been working with GE extensively on this and we would certainly hope that sometime in 2007 we will have significantly more cost information so we could move ahead. But that’s an ongoing process the one that we are working very hard with GE. Daniele Seitz - Dahlman Rose & Co.: So, you sense that given the progress and also because of the sense that you may get this filed et cetera, that over the next 12 months or so you will have a better sense of that?

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

That’s certainly our goal. Daniele Seitz - Dahlman Rose & Co.: Okay. Great thanks.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

Thank you Danielle.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your question madam. [Operator Instructions]. Your next question comes from Carrie Saint Louis with Fidelity. Please go ahead.

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Hey Carrie.

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Just wanted to follow up on the financing, so I kind of went through the calculations on page 23 and I guess, I was coming up with cashless deficit, of about $1.3 billion, which potentially needed to be financed into that market.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

Carrie, that’s a reasonable conclusion from what’s on page 23.

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Okay. Could you maybe talk about, with that, I guess you have a couple of a billion final maturities, and in some of the maturities are pollution control. I am just curious like how you are planning on attacking this and in the debt market in maybe a mix of taxable or tax exempt short-term, long-term financing it. It’s quite a large number.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

Well, first off we talked about 200 to 250 of equity for the year.

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Okay. So that $1.3 billion, I calculated that was after that, but you are saying that it might be high.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

No. I am saying that if you subtract the equity out you get the number that you was talking about is about $1.3 billion.

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Yes.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

And then we are talking about long-term debt increasing during 2008 by about $200 million. So new issuances exceeding the maturities by that $200 million,

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Okay.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

We also, I mentioned the potential use of hybrids to finance some of that where we would attempt to structure it so that we would get 50% equity credit.

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Right. But you also said that that’s going to depend on market conditions correct.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

That is correct.

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Okay.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

And then also short-term debt balances are lower than they normally would be.

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Okay.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

And throughout the year we would expect to ramp them up to normal levels. The combination will take care of that financing.

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Okay. But for long-term debt, you are looking at about net increase of about $200 million.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

That is correct.

Carrie Saint Louis - Fidelity

Analyst · Fidelity. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you.

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, for your question ma’am. Our next question comes from Sam Brothwell with Wachovia. Please go ahead.

Sam Brothwell - Wachovia Capital Markets

Analyst · Wachovia. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Hey Sam,

Analyst · Wachovia. Please go ahead

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

Good morning, Sam

Sam Brothwell - Wachovia Capital Markets

Analyst · Wachovia. Please go ahead

Two quick questions, can you update us on, has there been any further developments legislatively vis-à-vis the Virginian restructuring law? And two strategically, going forward with your acreage in Appalachia we have seen a lot of the companies that we cover our ramping up their efforts targeting sales and so forth. Are you still going to kind of lay low on that or do you see your selves accelerating your efforts there, going forward.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Sam I will answer the first question. Paul Koonce will talk to you about the Marcellies share. There is one, I assume you are wondering about the bill that was proposed by senator Reynolds.

Sam Brothwell - Wachovia Capital Markets

Analyst · Wachovia. Please go ahead

That’s right.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Which would basically undo everything that was done last year. The committee that oversees all electric utility bills, it’s a combination the house of delegate’s members and senate members, actually met earlier this week and voted unanimously to recommend against that bill being accepted. It will be going to a senate committee probably next week. It could be the week after, because that’s, and that would be the last opportunity. So, it has been aired in front of the panel that was appointed by the legislature to be expert on these issues, and they voted unanimously to recommend against the bill being adopted. Now with that I will turn it over to Paul Koonce to talk about Appalachia.

Paul D. Koonce - Chief Executive Officer, Transmission

Management

Sam, good morning. Just a couple of comments on unconventional programs in general. We have got about 1.6 million conventional acres. Now we have been since late 2006 and all of 2007. Looking at that acreage positioned us to see what’s the upset of that might be suitable for Marcellus development. We think the acreage position that we have imbedded within the 1.6 million is about 200 to 800,000 potential acre. We have drilled about 12 Marcellus shale wells throughout 2007. We are part of a 22 company consortium to look at those well stratographic tasting to see which ones are suitable for commercial production. So, in that vein we are very much in lock step with all of our peers in the basin and pursuing that opportunity. On coal bed methane over the last 18 months we have acquired about 300,000 coal bed methane acres, and we have drilled about 22 horizontal coal bed methane wells, either ourselves or with others. And throughout 2008 we will continue to examine that as well as Marcellus shale, for future developments in 2009 and beyond. But again on the coal bed methane side, least as I analyzed, that we are lockstep with others in the basin and in that unconventional program as well.

Sam Brothwell - Wachovia Capital Markets

Analyst · Wachovia. Please go ahead

Okay. Thanks very much.

Paul D. Koonce - Chief Executive Officer, Transmission

Management

Thanks Sam.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, for your question sir. Our next question comes from Hugh Wynne with Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead

Good morning. Just a quick question regarding the quarter’s results. I am looking at page 15 of the earnings release kit. And my first question relates to the 17% year-over-year increase in operations and maintenance expense, which in the fourth quarter was attenuated significantly. You had a decline year-over-year in the fourth quarter. My general question is, what is your expectation regarding the rate of increase in O&M expense in the years ahead, particularly in light of the inflationary pressures we have seen in the sector in recent years? Joseph O’Hare - Director, Investor Relations: Hugh. This is Joe. Regarding the growth in O&M, I mean you would not expect… we don’t expect anything other than normal inflationary pressures. The presentation of O&M in those schedules can be misleading, because of how certain elements are classified. In our supplemental disclosure in the guidance kit we are actually taking… kind of directing you towards a margin orientation. And there was an anomaly in the comparative results that you are looking at, that actually is going to be self correcting as we report first quarter 2008 and beyond and those are similar to the… I guess the anomalies we discussed on past quarters.

Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead

And in other words this is the hedging or? Joseph O’Hare - Director, Investor Relations: Yes.

Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead

Okay. Now other energy related commodity purchases declined by 75%. What does that reflect? Joseph O’Hare - Director, Investor Relations: Hugh… again on the… regarding these line items, these are detailed accounting type questions, that are going to be covered in the 10-K when we file that, but when we talk to you later this afternoon we would be happy to try to investigate the answer to that, but we are not prepared to answer that right now. I am sorry.

Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead

Okay. Joseph O’Hare - Director, Investor Relations: And unless that… Gettrick is… but he might be.

Mark F. McGettrick - Executive Vice President, Dominion Generation

Management

Yes. Hugh, were you talking about page 20?

Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead

I am looking at page 15, operating results, year-over-year, other industry related commodity purchases have declined by 75%, saving you guys something like $750 million.

Mark F. McGettrick - Executive Vice President, Dominion Generation

Management

Yes. Hugh, all part is I want to just… I go and maybe what’s going on there but again you have what is individual line items as Joe said, you can have distortions just in the way of the accounting, requires you to categorize things, but one big item there was in 2006, the way that we accounted for the buy sell range which was in the Gulf of Mexico was really caused that bid. A big swing in the other energy related commodity purchases. And the other thing is, we have been accounting for the coal trading contracts through that line item, and that has declined significantly this year versus last year, and all of this has offset in the revenue line. So it doesn’t have a bottom line impact, and that’s why really particularly with the guidance we are really pushing people to… rather than focusing on the individual line items, we had these kind of weird distortions, focus on bottom line margins, EBIT, et cetera.

Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead

Okay and then just one quick here about the forecast. What is your expectation of the Dominion Virginia Power’s regulated equity going into the 2009 rate case?

Scott Hetzer - Senior Vice President and Treasurer

Management

Well, you mean the actual amount?

Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead

Yes.

Mark F. McGettrick - Executive Vice President, Dominion Generation

Management

Where it’s... Look 50-50 basis.

Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead

No. I know but I was just wondering if you have either the rate base estimate or the equity estimate for 2009?

Mark F. McGettrick - Executive Vice President, Dominion Generation

Management

Not off the top of top of our heads but we can get it for you.

Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead

All right. Thank you. I will call back then.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Thank you for your questions sir and the next question comes from Ryan Wrighton [ph] with Barrel Hanley. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good morning. My question is for Tom Farrell. Tom, there have been a number of conflicting reports I guess regarding your view of a potential NOP on pipeline and storage assets. Can you update us now in 2008 how you are looking at that going forward? Thank you.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you. We have been watching carefully the MLP market and the political atmosphere in Washington around tax advantaged structures like this. There was a lot of noise around it in Washington last year, it seems to have settled down. We are interested in watching what happens in the selection cycle because tax advantage structures sometimes don’t survive in Washington. This one seems to be doing pretty well, though at least so far. We recognize the financial benefits that MLPs can bring. So, we are taking a very interested wait and see attitude, we do have a team internally looking at MLP structures but I wouldn’t anticipate anything in the near term on that.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Thank you for your question, sir. Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Catapult Capital. Please go ahead sir.

Steve Fleishman - Catapult Capital

Analyst · Catapult Capital. Please go ahead sir

Yes. Hi everyone.

Thomas F. Farrell II, - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Hi Steve.

Steve Fleishman - Catapult Capital

Analyst · Catapult Capital. Please go ahead sir

Just a little bit of a detailed question on the merchant and particularly the NEPOOL assets . If you look at the just the difference in the price of hedging ’08 versus ’07, it would look like your NEPOOL assets should be up of course to $300 million, between mid -60’s price and the mid-70s price but they are up $160 million to $185 million. Is that just volume difference you mentioned, and could you just reiterate again some of the outage data that Mark maybe went through Millstone in the call?

Mark F. McGettrick - Executive Vice President, Dominion Generation

Management

Sure Steve. A large piece is the outage information. We have an additional outage at Millstone that we didn’t have previously in the previous year. So, that is a huge driver for that.

Steve Fleishman - Catapult Capital

Analyst · Catapult Capital. Please go ahead sir

So, ’08 is a double outage year?

Mark F. McGettrick - Executive Vice President, Dominion Generation

Management

’08 is a double outage year. That’s right.

Steve Fleishman - Catapult Capital

Analyst · Catapult Capital. Please go ahead sir

Okay. And then ’09?

Mark F. McGettrick - Executive Vice President, Dominion Generation

Management

’09 will go back to a single outage year.

Steve Fleishman - Catapult Capital

Analyst · Catapult Capital. Please go ahead sir

Got you.

Mark F. McGettrick - Executive Vice President, Dominion Generation

Management

And we also Steve are… have a couple of significant outages at Brayton Point where we have scrubber tie-ins, I and II which we are going to take this spring. So, I think the vast of majority of what you are referencing is those two items.

Steve Fleishman - Catapult Capital

Analyst · Catapult Capital. Please go ahead sir

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your questions sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our allotted time. Mr. Chewning, do you have any closing remarks?

Thomas N. Chewning - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Management

Yes, Lindsay. Thank you. Just a reminder that our Form 10-K will be filed with the SEC on or about February 29 and our first quarter earnings release is scheduled for May 1 of this year. I would like to thank everyone for joining us this morning and we wish you a safe rest of the winter. Good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and please have a wonderful day.