Tom Reeg
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open
Thanks, Anthony. Good afternoon, everyone. When I spoke last quarter and threw out that I'd expect us to hit $1 billion in EBITDA in a quarter in 2021, I wasn't thinking it was going to be second quarter. I was actually thinking it would be this quarter. So we're a little bit ahead of schedule. As you look at the quarter, Anthony touched on some of this, but remember that particularly with mask mandates coming back in Nevada, remember, the Las Vegas numbers that you're looking at included a little over two months of social distancing, restricted occupancy and masks, restricting occupancy in restaurants and on the casino floor plus masks, and we were able to put up the numbers that we put up in the quarter. If you think about drags in the quarter, we held poorly in Las Vegas, the loss from the London Clubs business flowed through in the quarter because we didn't close the transaction until the middle of July and Lake Charles was closed for rebuilding post the hurricane. The drags that I look at in the quarter were about $40 million in aggregate versus what you would expect to see normally. We were 89% occupied in Las Vegas. If you look forward -- if you start in May, May was the best month in the history of Las Vegas for Caesars from an EBITDA perspective. June was better than May, and then July was better than June. And I would expect that third quarter occupancy will finish significantly ahead of second quarter's 89%. Brian touched on the way that we're presenting our financials. Now you can see Caesars Digital on its own, you'll be able to measure our progress. I'll talk a little more about that in a moment. You'll be able to see the bricks and mortar business. And now you can see the managed business, which was in that jumble that the historical Caesars used to have of Managed and International and other, but you can see that, that business generates a little over $100 million of annual EBITDA and that will grow when the Southern Indiana transaction closes because we'll get a management fee and licensing stream from the Cherokee tribe at that property. If you look at the bricks-and-mortar business, I touched on Las Vegas. If you look at it on a consolidated basis, as we sit here today, we are run rating well north of $10 a share in free cash flow, significant ramp from June to July. Obviously, we see the same public health situation that you see and there could be bumps along the way in terms of masks and protocols that we need to follow, but the demand is exceedingly strong, and has continued to build. So we feel very good about where we are in the bricks-and-mortar business. On yesterday morning, we launched Caesars Sportsbook. We closed the William Hill transaction a little over 100 days ago, and we have spent -- and that was kind of a standing stock. Because of the rules in the U.K., we really could not do much in terms of preparing for when we would close the transaction, and we wanted to be in position to launch ahead of football season. So what you're going to see is us leaning the entire organization into this vertical. You see the ad campaign with J.B. Smoove, Patton Oswalt, our first national commercial will air during the USA Men's basketball game, Thursday night in the Olympics. You're -- we are activating the entire enterprise. So connecting to Caesars Rewards more than 60 million people tiered levels of service, ability to earn and use points on or offline. We're activating our player development teams across the organization to sign up new accounts; we're activating our entire workforce. Our frontline labor force will each have their own individual QR code, and will be able to sign up customers and be incentivized to help us do that. So this is really a true lean in by this organization that has not happened before. The numbers that you see and that we've generated before have been in this kind of lame duck universe where we had bought Caesars, we had the partnership that needed to be restructured and then we had the time between announcing the William Hill deal and closing it where that -- the business that we were doing was kind of just incidental, not enough real focus. This is truly leaning the whole organization in. And if you -- in terms of how I think about it, I look at this like I look at any business opportunity within the business. I think that we can generate cash-on-cash returns in this business at maturity well in excess of 50% of what we'll invest. But we realize that we're -- we operate in a world that is competitive and that we've got to jump in and compete. So, you should expect us to spend over $1 billion in the next 2.5 years to build our customer base. I can't give you a more precise number because a lot of the acquisition spend is success-based. But I would expect it to be over $1 billion, and I'd expect to, at maturity, be generating at least 50%, possibly approaching 100% of that in EBITDA. And the difference in terms of a bricks-and-mortar investment that -- if I could find a brick-and-mortar investment like that, we would do that every day of the week. The difference is you're going to see that flow through our income statement, which is why it's important that we're able to separate this and show you what does the brick-and-mortar business look like versus what does the digital business look like. But with us free cash flowing in excess of $10 a share, we think we have plenty of capital to invest in this business. We know this is not going to be just a straight line up. We expect that we will make mistakes. We'll have to continue to evolve both from a marketing strategy and a technology strategy, but the tools that we have in our portfolio to prosecute this opportunity, I'm really excited to play this hand and we're just getting started as of yesterday. And with that, I'm going to turn it to Bret to talk about liquidity.