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CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (CX)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 7, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to CEMEX Fourth Quarter 2012 Conference Call and Video Webcast. My name is Jasmine, and I'll be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] Our hosts for today are Fernando González, Executive Vice President of Finance and Administration; and Maher Al-Haffar, Vice President of Corporate Communications, Public Affairs and Investor Relations. And now, I will turn the conference over to your host, Fernando González. Please proceed. Fernando A. González: Thanks. Good day to everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Fourth Quarter 2012 Conference Call and Video Webcast. After Maher and I discuss the results of the quarter, we will be happy to take your questions. We are pleased with our 10% growth in operating EBITDA on a like-to-like basis on the back of essentially flat consolidated net sales. This is the sixth consecutive quarter with a year-over-year EBITDA increase. For the full year, operating EBITDA grew by 14% on a like-to-like basis, reaching $2.6 billion. Improvement in pricing and volume in several of our regions, as well as the continued success of our transformation effort, has led to the highest operating EBITDA and operating EBITDA margin since 2009. Infrastructure and housing continue to be the main drivers of demand for our products. The U.S., as well as the South, Central America and the Caribbean and Asia regions contributed strongly to our fourth quarter and full year 2012 consolidated cement volumes. The favorable volumes from these regions partially mitigated the declines we experienced in the Northern Europe and Mediterranean regions and, to a lesser extent, Mexico. In the case of the U.S., we had double-digit growth in our full year cement, ready mix and aggregate volumes. Prices for domestic gray cement on a consolidated basis increased by 1% sequentially in local currency terms, while ready mix…

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Thank you, Fernando. Let me start by saying that we are very pleased with the 13% year-over-year increase in our EBITDA in the quarter. On a like-to-like basis for ongoing operations and adjusting for foreign exchange, as well as the CO2 credits sold in 2011, EBITDA during the quarter actually increased by 18%. For the full year, we also saw a double-digit growth increase in operating EBITDA generation. Operating EBITDA margin increased by nearly 2 percentage points on a year-over-year basis during both the quarter and the full year 2012. If we adjust for CO2 sales in 2011, the EBITDA margin expansion during the quarter was 2.9 percentage points. This margin expansion results from higher volumes and prices in some regions, the continued results of our transformation process, as well as a favorable operating leverage effect in several of our markets, especially the U.S., South Central America and the Caribbean and Asia. In the case of our Northern Europe and Mediterranean regions, we have resilient margins despite the decline in volumes. Cost of sales plus SG&A, as a percentage of net sales, decreased by 1.6 percentage points during the quarter and by 2.3 percentage points during the year, versus the same periods in 2011. The decrease in these costs and expenses reflects the savings of our initiatives to improve our operating efficiencies, lower fuel costs and increase utilization rates. During the quarter, about 2/3 of the growth in SG&A as a percentage of net sales was due to higher transportation costs. Our kiln fuel and electricity bill, on a per-ton-of-cement-produced basis, fell by 1.4% during the full year 2012. This decline was due to drops in the price of pet coke and coal from 2011 levels, and increase in the use of alternative fuels and the introduction of natural gas…

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Before we go into our Q&A session, I would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements we make today are based on our current knowledge of the markets in which we operate, and could change in the future due to a variety of factors beyond our control. And now, we will be happy to take your questions. Operator?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question will come from the line of Vanessa Quiroga with Credit Suisse. Vanessa Quiroga - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: My question is regarding the pricing strategy. Basically, in the U.S., is the pricing increase that you implemented in January, did that have to do with the surcharging and new pricing scheme? Or haven't you started implementing this business scheme at all, so far? And how have the discussions evolved with customers regarding these new price scheme so far in the U.S. and in Europe?

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Do want me to start? Fernando A. González: Maybe I can start the -- I can actually answer the question, Vanessa. I think it's a combination of factors, but I think I could highlight the differences. I mean, what is different? We -- our objective from pricings are different because we're clearly pursuing a strategy on price needed to cover our capital cost, which currently we're not doing in the case of the U.S. The other factor that is different is that the value-before-volume strategy is already in implementation. We have not finished in the case of the U.S., but it's already impacting. So we have already implemented, as I commented, in ready-mix, as well as other sectors. Surcharges, meaning -- trying to make a simple explanation, is we have been providing certain services to our customers that -- valuable services to them that we were not properly reflecting in our prices. Now given that the services are very specific to the requirements of customers, we are doing that on a case-by-case situation. So as commented, if we have been serving customers requesting partial loads and things like that, now we are charging for that type of services, as you can imagine, transporting a truck with half the load is more expensive than one full load. So we have been changing our system, pricing system, our objectives, our platform to properly support these new objectives. We have been training our sales force. We have been making efforts to communicate to our customers this new charges. So at the end, as commented, we have several things combined, but what is new is that we have a clearer objective on prices needed. And we are already -- we have not finished, but we are already in implementation mode on the value-before-volume strategy in the case of the U.S. Maher, you want to answer?

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Yes. If I can add to what Fernando mentioned. I mean, as you saw, we did make, towards the end of last year, 2 pricing increases, right? Slightly close to $9 -- $8.8 per ton in January and July, as Fernando mentioned earlier, in all markets except in Texas, where we delayed the price increase till April. In ready-mix, we actually made pricing -- we announced pricing increases in all markets, except for Texas and the Mid-South region, of 10%. And in aggregates, we increased prices by 5% pretty much across-the-board in all markets. On the surcharge issue, what is really important is that we've always had surcharges, energy and environmental surcharges, it's just that, perhaps we were not being as disciplined in enforcing them. And as a consequence of the pricing strategy that we're adopting, we have been, in fact, collecting these surcharges more proactively. And in fact, if you take a look at the pricing -- and this is particular to ready-mix, where the surcharges apply most, at least for now, if you take a look at price of ready-mix, fourth quarter 2012 versus fourth quarter 2011, our prices were up about 6% and roughly 1/4 of that pricing increase is due to the collection of the surcharges. So it's really working. I think, we're getting traction. It's not happening -- obviously, it doesn't happen overnight, but we are definitely getting traction on the pricing strategy that has been implemented in the U.S. I don't know if that addresses your question, Vanessa. Vanessa Quiroga - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Yes, it does. And within Europe, you see that similar strategy, similar response so far? Fernando A. González: Yes, we do. By the way, the value-before-volume strategy started in Europe, in our North European region. And from there we are -- we've been extending it to the rest of the company. It is nowadays [ph] our global initiative for us that would be implemented. It started in cement in North Europe and it's been extended to ready-mix and aggregates as well.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

And just to add to Fernando, the -- we did have effective surcharges in Germany -- and it's primarily energy surcharges because of the dynamics in the market. We've had energy surcharges in both Germany and Poland, and certainly other markets are being evaluated for appropriateness. And the charges were in the magnitude of EUR 1.5 to slightly above that. So, yes, it is being implemented.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eduardo Couto with from Goldman Sachs.

Eduardo Siffert Couto - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · from Goldman Sachs.

I have one question, Maher and Fernando, regarding the free cash flow -- actually the EBITDA to free cash flow conversion. Now despite the improvement in the EBITDA last year, now your EBITDA to free cash flow conversion fell, and I think was the lowest level I have ever seen for the company. I just want to hear your thoughts on that, if we may expect a better conversion of the EBITDA into free cash. You mentioned that the working capital should remain more or less the same this year, but any other lines on the free cash flow that could help to improve this conversion? Because I think it was around 6% or so; it was quite low. I just wanted to understand a little bit better how the free cash flow will be frequent [ph] changes to any improvement in EBITDA? Fernando A. González: Maher, you want to...

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst · from Goldman Sachs.

Yes. The main -- I guess one of the -- and Fernando did go through the guidance of the main drivers of free cash flow for 2013. Clearly, in the fourth quarter, the driver for free cash flow variance was primarily, I would say, maintenance CapEx was particularly higher. We had kilns in Mexico and Panama and other places that were being maintained, where we ran maintenance on -- in the fourth quarter that we did not have last year. So that's one issue. And that's probably one of the biggest drivers, I would say, for the, let's say, less than expected from your perspective, free cash flow for the quarter. And for the year, a similar -- the biggest difference really is the -- is certainly taxes. And again, maintenance CapEx is being the big culprit there. So that's the -- those are the 2. Going forward for 2013, we did talk about slightly higher maintenance CapEx and strategic CapEx, and we're expecting taxes to be slightly higher. Working capital, we're always working on reducing it. So that gives you an idea about kind of the outlook for free cash flow for 2013 and what happened this quarter and for the year.

Eduardo Siffert Couto - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · from Goldman Sachs.

Regarding the taxes, Maher, the -- there was a big jump, no? -- in 2012 versus '11 at the tax paid. Can you expect another increase on tax paid this year versus 2012? Or is $400 million more or less a targeted level?

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst · from Goldman Sachs.

Yes. I mean, the tax difference for this year is a little bit over $100 million, about $106 million this year compared to 2011 -- I mean, 2012 compared to 2011. Close to $90 million of that is due to a recent tax settlement in Mexico, which is related to the preferential tax regimes that were in place in -- for the years of 2005 and 2006. And I mean, just to put it into perspective, okay? I mean, we constantly have issues that we are pursuing discussions or there are legal actions that are being taken all over the world. Sometimes you get those in your favor; sometimes you don't. Sometimes, when you get them in your favor, you don't get them 100%. So in 2012, I think we were -- we settled on a couple of those situations and we ended up paying close to $90 million on one and about $15 million on the other. Both of those 2 situations were in Mexico and that constituted the majority of the increase in taxes. Now for next year, we are -- I mean, for 2013, we are expecting a slight increase in our tax bill. The predictability of the tax bill is very difficult, because you have processes that are ongoing and they're -- in many instances, they're not resolved until towards the end of the year. Sometimes, there are resolved earlier. So it's difficult to predict. But at this point in time, we're expecting, I would say, a slight increase over this year's tax bill, essentially. Fernando A. González: If I may add, just that -- I would like just to highlight that, the working capital. You know, that we have been -- we've been working on optimizing it. In 2012, we set a new record for CEMEX, 30 days of working capital. And the reason I mentioned it is because this initiative of optimizing working capital has lots of traction. So we do expect to improve our working capital ratio for 2013.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gonzalo Fernandez with Santander. Gonzalo Fernández - Santander, Equity Research: I just have 2 questions. In the U.S., you already have a good recovery volumes plus all the cost-cutting efforts, both margins in 2012, [indiscernible] below 2%. Going forward, how dependent on the successful -- of the success of price increases are margins in order to get, let's say, to [indiscernible]? Because you're forecasting high-single-digit volumes and that closed the price increases and what level of margins and your rates in the U.S., and what percentage of that, in increasing margins, would depend on price increases? Fernando A. González: Well, if I understood correctly the question -- because the connection was not that good. But in the U.S., there are different factors impacting our margins: product mix, operating leverage, and our, let's say, new pricing strategy. In the case of the U.S., cement and ready-mix are increasing margins; that's what I have in memory. And in the case of aggregates, that was not the case in 2012 for different factors. We have mentioned one of the most relevant ones, the kind of material we're selling for the Fort Lauderdale Airport in Florida. We are not sharing the targeted margin in the case of the U.S., but we do expect margins to increase particularly because of operating leverage. In the last quarter of 2012 compared -- just an example, compared to the last quarter in '11, incremental sales were $74 million, while incremental EBITDA was $29 million, that's 39%. So as we continue seeing increases in our volumes, prices -- and we have already commented, we do have a special strategy, we will see more and more operating leverage in the case of the U.S. I don't know if you have anything else to add to...

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Yes. I just -- I mean, I think I'd just like to reemphasize what Fernando was saying. I mean, the margin is very, very impacted by product mix. I mean, if you take a look at the -- especially if you're talking about the growth in ready-mix versus aggregates and cement, where you have greater asset intensity and you have bigger margin, obviously, to compensate, but also probably where you have the highest operating leverage in place. So it's a -- I think, when you're -- in answering your question about where margins are likely to be at the end of the day, it's difficult. We're not kind of shying away of answering your question, it is difficult at the end of the day. It depends which of -- what is the product mix is going to be at the end of the day. But clearly, the operating leverage and the volume effect, in general, is going to be very important in the next few years and perhaps, maybe not as important as the price contribution, but certainly, both are going to be quite, quite important.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Benjamin Theurer with Barclays.

Benjamin M. Theurer - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

I have actually one question related on the Mexico outlook for 2013. We've seen this continue this year, especially in formal housing sector, having a negative impact on volumes in Mexico. What's your expectation in terms of how they may recover in terms of volumes? What's your demand outlook, especially? And how's your competition like, formal housing sector versus informal and infrastructure? Where do you think the demand is coming from in order to support the 2% consolidated volume growth, which is partially driven by the strong performance in Mexico? Fernando A. González: Well [Audio Gap] And the informal residential sectors will continue growing. Infrastructure, because of higher investments in highways, will also continue growing. So in different proportions, but as mentioned, all combined, we think it's going to be a growth of about 2%.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Ben, does that answer your question? Ben? [Technical Difficulty]

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

We are experiencing some technical difficulties. [Technical Difficulty]

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

So anyway, we'll continue. So Ben, I don't know where we got cut off.

Benjamin M. Theurer - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Well, the question was basically, what's your expectation for volume? The volume expectation for Mexico, how does that -- like what's your -- behind the expectation, in terms of [indiscernible], how do you expect to -- with it being a drag on volumes in the past, so what's your expectation for 2013 for the residential housing sector in order to supply the 2% you expect Mexico volumes to grow in 2013? Fernando A. González: Okay, well, given that I'm not sure where we were cut, I was saying that both residential and informal sectors, we do expect them to grow by 1%, 2%, respectively. In the case of the informal residential, because of economic expansion, there are higher wages and lower unemployment in the country. The other sector that we do expect to grow, which will grow about 5%, is the industrial and commercial sector, although it has lower weight -- much lower weight than residential. But during 2013, we do expect more investments, and we also have the base effect of 2012 in which -- in this sector, volumes were lower than our expectations. So everything combined, given that all sectors will grow, we do expect a growth of 2% in 2013.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Thank you, Ben, and sorry again about the disruption, everybody.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Steinfeld with JPMorgan. Jacob A. Steinfeld - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I have two questions. One was, I guess, as a follow-up on Mexico. In fourth quarter, there was a decline in margins, so I just wanted to understand the driver of that given that volumes were up, in ready-mix and aggregates the prices were up, in all product mix, global currency terms. Fernando A. González: Yes. Well, in the case of margins, if you see the margins all over the year, you will see that they are -- they've been stable. Now comparing fourth quarter '12 with '11, there are mainly 2 factors. There is a mix factor, a much higher proportion of our ready-mix business activity into '12 compared to '11. If you remember in 2011, there was a significant drop of our ready-mix volumes compared to its previous period. So that's one part of the explanation. The other part is that in fourth quarter 2012, we had the annual -- the major maintenance of 3 kilns in Mexico compared to 1 kiln that was maintained during the same quarter of 2011. So that's why I was mentioning at the beginning, if you look at the margins all over the year, they are stable and we do expect for -- these margins to continue being stable. Jacob A. Steinfeld - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. So it's more of a one-time... Fernando A. González: Yes. Jacob A. Steinfeld - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: And then just kind of a falls in the lap question on you, in terms of formal housing sector, what percentage of your revenue you can say that represents? Fernando A. González: Percentage? Yes.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

We -- I don't think we break it down by revenue, but in terms of demand, it's roughly -- it's about 1/3. Demand for cement is about 1/3. Jacob A. Steinfeld - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. And then I had a question on the debt side. Could you tell us the balance of the old financing agreement and the new facilities agreement as of the end of the quarter, and how many -- do you still own many of the [indiscernible] bonds? Fernando A. González: The [indiscernible] bonds, we already sold them, so we don't have any. And we managed to sell them at very close to par, which we managed through time to do that. And sorry, the other question was?

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

The balance -- Jacob A. Steinfeld - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: The current outstanding amount under the facilities agreement and the old financing agreement? Fernando A. González: It's about $4.1 billion. $4.1 billion. Jacob A. Steinfeld - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: And under the old agreement, has it -- has it all been retired? Fernando A. González: Pardon?

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

The old financing agreement, roughly how much is the amount? It's... Fernando A. González: It's about $50 million, $55 million. That's -- remember, it was close to $600 million, but we've been using the proceeds of all the transactions we did and we managed to pay $500 million or so of the holdout, so there's a remaining $50 million -- around $55 million.

Operator

Operator

And now we have your next question from the webcast.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Yes. The next question is from the webcast, and it's from Celina Merrill from Crédit Suisse. Celina Apostolo Merrill - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Can you discuss any other potential financing plans you may have in 2013? Maybe to term out additional debt; for instance, your bonds due in 2014 and 2015? Fernando A. González: Yes. I think, as the question says, we have bonds due -- a eurobond due in March 2014 and also, this $50 million, $55 million of the old agreement in February 2014. So that makes, let's say, in round figures, about $600 million. So that's what we will need to refinance during the year. And fortunately, the markets are there. Our credit conditions have improved. So we will, at some point in time in the year, we will refinance those needs. And that's the only thing -- that's the only refinancing need that we foresee in '13 and '14. So that's 24 months. '15 is still too far; far away. But anyhow, we -- as you know, we constantly monitor the markets, and you have see that we have been always very proactive on plan and trying to find the best ways to solve our refinancing needs.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Wolfe with Citi.

Eric Wolfe - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi.

Many of my questions have been answered, but perhaps, if you could just touch base on of what -- like anything you can tell us about the convertible bonds. There was a press report out and I think you denied that a refinance was in works; if you could just elaborate perhaps. And then, second question would be, can you just give us an update on your current utilization rates, if you can, in your main regional markets; kind of broadly, U.S., Europe, et cetera? Fernando A. González: Utilization rates means...

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst · Citi.

Cement utilization rates. Fernando A. González: Cement utilization rates?

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst · Citi.

Yes. Fernando A. González: Okay. Let me start with the first one.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst · Citi.

Okay. Very good. Fernando A. González: We don't have -- currently, we don't have any plans to act on convertible bonds. The notes you have seen in the press are related to the information we need to release for our ordinary and extraordinary shareholder meetings that we will have the 3rd week of March, I think. And even though the first convertible is to be converted in, I think, it's March 15, the reason why would we would like to ask shareholders for authorization is to be able to make a transaction, if needed, anytime. "Anytime" meaning, if we don't request this authorization in this shareholder meeting, we won't be able, for instance, to execute or to consider exchanging our convertible by another convertible. And so we can do that. We could have done that later during the year with an extraordinary shareholder meeting, but it was much more practical to do it right now. If we didn't do it now and if we do it, let's say, in our shareholder meeting of March 2014, then we will have from April or May '14 to March '15 to consider any possibility with convertibles. So this is just a way for us to be prepared and to have our hands free in case we consider -- convenient doing something about it.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst · Citi.

And if I could add, Eric, to what Fernando said. I mean, it's very important to note, first, I mean, we didn't deny, we just said that this was just an announcement for the extraordinary shareholder meeting and it's not an announcement of a specific liability management transaction. But very importantly to note is that the approval that we would be seeking would not be to increase the number of shares that underlie the current convertibles. So if we do something, as Fernando said, depending on market conditions, if we do something, it would be using the same number of shares; it would not translate to additional issuance of new shares.

Eric Wolfe - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi.

Okay; understood. It's all being reasonable and proactive. And what about the utilization rates? Fernando A. González: What I can mention in general terms is that -- and through time, we have been commenting, is that in the case of Europe, Spain and other countries, we have been rationalizing capacity, shutting down plants, which is not different to what all businesses do whenever you don't have economic activity enough. But the situation generally is different, so in the case of Europe, Spain and other countries, we have been shutting down plants. In the case of the Philippines, we have been announcing capacity increases because we don't have capacity enough to cope with record volumes in the case of the Philippines. I mean, we do have capacity enough, but we need to get prepared for additional volumes next year and the years to come. Same thing for South America. South America, it is tight. We have already announced some investments there. In the case of Mexico, I don't have the specific number but it's -- we can provide that, if needed. I don't have the specific number right now with me. In the case of the U.S., in the case of cement, I think it is changing very fast. As you know, in the U.S. -- when the volume started falling down in the U.S., the first volume that went out of the market was imports. So with the current estimates for volume growth in 2013, we still don't have any specific estimate for '14. But we do expect volumes to continue growing. So we are going to start seeing, in the U.S., in certain regions, capacity being very tight, either late this year or 2014. Now, unfortunately, I don't have very specific figures with me now to share. So that's something you might be able to...

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst · Citi.

Yes. Maybe I could just mention the U.S. The Mexico number, we'll get back to you on, Eric. The U.S. number -- I mean, as you know last year, the country as a whole closed the year with close to 80 million tons of consumption in cement. If you take a look at what the PCA, which is -- I'm not saying that that's necessarily in line with our expectations, but certainly, if you take a look at their expectations, which they're expecting about an 8% growth in volumes for 2013, that takes us to kind of mid-80s consumption for the year. And if you take out the requirement to idle capacity for maintenance and if you consider that some capacity has been shutdown now for a while and would be quite -- would not be inexpensive to bring it back, it would require significant pricing increases before we bring it back, you're talking about now, in the U.S., we're getting close to 90%, maybe 95%, let's say, 90-plus percent capacity utilization, which should be quite healthy and supportive of some of the pricing strategies that we have been implementing.

Operator

Operator

And we have time for one last question from the line of Santiago Perez [ph], [indiscernible].

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

My first question relates to discretionary spending. How do you expect it to evolve over the next few years, and what effect will it have on your sales mix? Fernando A. González: I can't -- sorry, can you repeat the question from the beginning? Because it was not clear to us.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Of course. When you look at discretionary spending, in particular spending on the infrastructure, how do you expect it to evolve in the next 2 years? And what effect will it have on your sales mix?

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

I'm sorry, are you talking about like the -- you said, discretionary spending?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes, that's right.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

You mean like -- are you talking about CapEx? Or are you talking about...

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

No. At the U.S. level.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Ah, the U.S. You mean, the U.S., by -- you mean like infrastructure or something?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes, exactly, Maher.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Ex's. Right. I mean...

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes. How did [indiscernible] result in the Q?

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Yes. I mean, would you like me, Fernando, to take a stab at that? Fernando A. González: Yes, yes.

Maher Al-Haffar

Analyst

Well, I mean, If you take a look at both infrastructure and industrial and commercial -- I mean, infrastructure, frankly, despite the fact that we expected it to be slower in 2012, we ended up the year, I believe close to 4% growth in infrastructure spending. And the biggest area there, frankly, was spending under the Highway Bill, which kind of lagged a little bit because of the conversations that were being had about the extension. Now that we had the extension of the Higher Bill, we think the -- not we think, but we're also seeing contract awards are beginning to improve. The other issue, frankly, is that we have seen increased mix of the spending going -- being done by states, as opposed to just the federal government. And states -- biggest example is California, have been improving their fiscal balance dramatically in some instances. Such as California, going from an estimated fiscal deficit of $35 billion to now, we're looking at almost flat and certainly, 2013, '14, there may be even a surplus. So clearly, the spending on infrastructure is being diversified away from the federal side, which is where a lot of the discussion of cost-cutting is taking place. The Highway Bill, which is a very important part of that, has been renewed, and now we think we're going to see a growth in it. So we're actually reasonably constructive on both infrastructure and industrial and commercial, which also has been very healthy, frankly, in the U.S. and continues to be so going forward; that's at least our outlook. And residential, of course, I mean, we don't need -- we can certainly discuss it, but that has certainly been growing, I would say, ahead of our expectations. And in particular, in our markets. Our markets have been growing both in terms of actual construction activity and in terms of permits. I'm sorry, we couldn't hear you initially, but I hope we answered the questions, Santiago.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Perfect. I mean, the last question. Do you have any update on your asset sales target? I mean, do you guys have a -- how much would you be willing to cash in [indiscernible] uninterrupted [ph] [indiscernible] CapEx [ph]? Fernando A. González: Well, we -- after all the refinancing and the transactions we did, as you can imagine, we do continue with the efforts of divesting assets that we believe don't fit well with the portfolio, meaning assets that we don't consider that strategic. We do continue -- but this is a permanent effort, we do continue selling real estate, meaning pieces of land which we normally have available because of the characteristic of our business, referring to the land we need to buy for reserves, in aggregates and cement and for our ready-mix plants. So that will continue. What we don't have nowadays is a specific, let's say, quantified target on divestments. I think, nowadays, and according to the way markets have evolved and our financials have evolved, our dividend ratio at the end of 2012, our expectations for 2013, we don't have -- although we continue looking at opportunities, we don't have a specific quantified target moving forward.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Q&A portion. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Fernando González for closing remarks. Fernando A. González: Thanks, operator. Well, thank you very much. And in closing, I would like to thank you all for the time and attention. We look forward to your continued participation in CEMEX. Please feel free to contact us directly or visit our website at any time. Thank you and good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.