Kevin Thorpe
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yeah, sure. Certainly. So, of course, there’s you know there’s geopolitical risk that’s forming with Russia, Ukraine as that relates to oil. I would say just in my view, it’s really too soon to say precisely how that conflict will impact the property sector. There’s actually a couple of points I’d make on that. So, I think it’s important, just speaking to that downside risk to no commercial real estate is not the stock market, right. The stock market is subject to these wild daily swings, real estate is not. Real estate is more grounded in local economic fundamentals and generally has a longer investment horizon, right, with valuation supported by long-term leases. We know that interest rates remain very low. And it’s actually possible that this conflict could drive interest rates even lower, making spreads even more attractive, could actually drive demand for core real estate up. There’s you know the risk of elevated energy prices. Again, that does in some way link to the conflict. Certainly, European countries are more exposed to some of the economic ties with Russia. We’ll have to see kind of where – you know what happens with oil and gas and other you know raw materials and see how that feeds through to inflation. But as I believe it was Neil or John had pointed out, we all know commercial real estate does perform well during periods of elevated inflationary environment. It is a hedge to a degree on inflation. And I feel good about the fundamentals. I think what’s really important is to focus on the secular trends and the momentum kind of that’s been building across the commercial real estate sector in areas that are resilient in some ways to the – whether it’s interest rate movements, inflation, geopolitical events. And I can point to a couple of things. The industrial sector, which we talked about, I mean, e-commerce is gaining share as people climb up the online learning curve that’s clearly fueling demand for warehouse space and last mile. The multifamily sector, very much a growth area. People need a place to live, regardless of geopolitical inflation, interest rate movements. Demographics, still very favorable, fueling demand there. Excess savings, this has sort of been glossed over in recent weeks. But excess savings, this is savings on top of savings that really indicating very strong consumer demand, particularly for experiential retail concepts. And finally, the pandemic, I mean, perhaps we’re officially – that’s officially fading in the rearview mirror, boosting the return to office, right. So, there’s always downside scenarios. There always - you know it can create dark – really dark scenarios, but in my view, the commercial real estate sector is positioned really well, I think to handle a lot of these challenges and headwinds. Hopefully, that helps.