Dave Lamp
Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Tracy. In summary, we are proud of our strong results for the second quarter of 2019. Our mission continues to be a top tier North American petroleum refining and fertilizer company as measured by safe reliable operations, superior financial performance and profitable growth. Looking at the second half of 2019 and beyond, we currently see a host of market themes that drive our outlook. One, domestic crude oil and specifically light crude oil production continues to increase. Recent data from EIA shows year-over-year crude oil production growth from the major shale oil basins of over 1.2 million barrels per day. Two, the Brent TI spread remains healthy, although the Midland and Cushing differential has compressed with line filled on new pipelines. Three, gasoline demand remained strong with the latest data showing vehicle miles travelled in the US up by 1% -- over 1% year-over-year. Four, product exports have been steady. Five, rent prices have increased recently, but are still fairly low. Six, IMO 2020 is less than six months away and we continue to believe these new standards will represent a tailwind for the refinery industry in general. Seven, tier 3 gasoline specification changes will also be fully implemented by January 1, 2020, which likely represents another tailwind for the refining industry, especially for those refiners that are prepared. Eight, continued low natural gas prices benefit both our refining and fertilizer business and number nine, due to the wet weather and flooding in the spring, we should see lower than expected planted corn acres and yield resulting in decreased corn inventories. This has driven an increase in corn prices and bodes well for the future fertilizer demand, as future corn acres planted should increase and farmers should seek to maximize yields. We believe CVR Energy is well positioned for the balance of 2019 and beyond, and we continue to make progress on our strategic objectives. In support of these objectives, we have a number of initiatives that we are progressing as previously discussed in our first quarter earnings call, I’d like to provide some updates on those initiatives today. First, the Board has approved Schedule A engineering design work for the Coffeyville crude optionality project. This project would increase the capacity of processing natural gasoline to 10,000 barrels per day. Natural gasoline spreads to regular sub grade are in the $0.70 range today, and are expected to widen further with implementation of tier 3 gasoline specs. Second, we completed our sale of the underutilized Cushing tank farm assets as planned for a consideration of $44 million, including inventory. Third, we increased our ability to produce premium gasoline at Wynnewood as a result of the BenFree repositioning project and the installation of a new generation of catalyst. We have also changed the reformer catalyst at Coffeyville, which also should increase our premium production there. Premium spreads in the group have averaged $0.26 in the second quarter 2019 and have averaged $0.40 quarter to date. The prompt prices are more like $0.55. Fourth, Schedule A engineering design work is progressing on the new C5, C6 isom at Wynnewood which should also improve capture rate via more premium production and improved liquid volume yield. Fifth, Schedule A at process engineering work is also underway to replace the hydrochloric acid catalyst in the Wynnewood appellation unit with a solid catalyst. This project is also expected to increase premium production at Wynnewood. And finally, we initiated the bank process to evaluate potential strategic alternatives for the company. As we have further defined our capital project plans, we have reduced our capital spending plan for 2019 by approximately $50 million to $60 million to reflect the timing of certain projects that have shifted into later years. Looking at the third quarter of 2019, the second quarter to-date, Group 3 cracks 2-1-1 have averaged $19.35 per barrel, with the Brent TI spread at $6.57 per barrel, and the Midland Cushing differential at $0.75 per barrel. Ethanol RINs are $0.22 quarter to date, compared to $0.17 in the second quarter, and biodiesel RINs are at $0.41 compared to $0.38 in the last quarter. With that operator, we're ready for questions.