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CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI)

Q1 2011 Earnings Call· Tue, May 10, 2011

$34.09

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the CVR Energy first quarter 2011 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation (Operator instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Stirling Pack; Vice President of Investor Relations for CVR Energy. Thank you, Mr. Pack, you may begin.

Stirling Pack

Management

Thank you, Kathleen. Good morning, everyone. We very much appreciate you being here for our CVR Energy call this morning. With me today are Jack Lipinski; our Chief Executive Officer, Ed Morgan; our Chief Financial Officer and Stan Riemann; our Chief Operating Officer. Prior to the discussion of our 2011 first quarter results, we are required to make the following Safe Harbor statement. In accordance with Federal Securities laws, the statements in this earnings call relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements based on management’s belief and assumptions, using currently available information and expectations as of this date and are not guarantees of future performance and do involve certain risks and uncertainties, including those noted in our filings with the Securities & Exchange Commission. This presentation includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our 2011 first quarter earnings release that we filed with the SEC yesterday after the close of the market. With that briefly said, I’ll turn the call over to Jack Lipinski, our Chief Executive Officer. Jack?

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Stirling, and thank you all for joining us. From the results we released last night, you can see we had a solid first quarter. Consolidated net income was $45.8 million on net sales of $1.2 billion, and that compares to a loss in the same period last year of $12.4 million on sales of $895 million. Adjusted net income was $45.9 million compared to a $15.6 million loss in the same period a year earlier. Adjusted net income per diluted share was $0.56, versus a loss of $0.18 a share last year. As always, I’ll speak first and provide some color about the results, then Ed will provide additional financial information, including details about the adjusted net income figures I just mentioned, and after that, Ed, Stan and I will take your questions. The petroleum segment had an operating income of $105.7 million on net sales of $1.1 billion for Q1 2011. The largest positive impact on our results was the significantly improved market environment we found ourselves in. The biggest negative impact on petroleum segment results was an SEC outage lasting 26 days into January. I mentioned that on our last call. As a result, we were forced to reduce crude runs by 1.9 million barrels. Great margins and good operations followed the outage, allowing us to produce 93% of the quarterly segment operating income, or $98 million, during February and March. Q1 results also reflect derivative losses on crude oil we bought for line fill and start up inventory obligations for the new Trans-Canada Keystone pipeline. That $7.2 million after tax negative impact from Q1 will be offset in Q2 with a positive impact, as we process these lower cost barrels, and effective April 1, all Keystone barrels have been transferred into our mediation agreement. As…

Ed Morgan

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you Jack, and good morning everyone. At the consolidated level, our net income was $45.8 million or $0.53 per diluted share, versus last year’s $12.4 million or $0.14 per diluted share. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.56 versus a loss of $0.18 per diluted share last year; we believe that adjusted earnings is a meaningful metric for analyzing our performance, as it doesn’t make the impact of non-recurring items and non-cash accounting matters, providing for a better comparison to analyst expectations. In Q1, we adjusted for share based compensation and FIFO inventory accounting, the loss on extinguishment of debt, and any turn around expenses; and I’ll be glad to walk you through these adjustments and provide some brief color at this point in time. Our share based compensation for Q1 was $13.28 million after tax, or $0.16 per share. Two reasons stock based compensation exceeded our prior guidance on this line item; first, our two prior majority shareholders completed a secondary offering in February, which triggered the sum of the founding partners equity rights, second, this founders equity is really linked to the movement of our stock price, which increased 53% during Q1. Stock based compensation expense is projected to be approximately $9 million over the next three quarters, or will average $3 million per quarter. The second adjustment to income is increase or decrease in inventory value that we realized under first in, first out, or FIFO inventory accounting. In Q1 2011, we realized the very valuable impact of $13.2 million after tax, or $0.15 per share. The third adjustment to income was the voluntary extinguishment of debt at $1.2 million after tax, or $0.01 per share. The extinguishment related to the refinancing of our existing $150 million working capital facility into a $250 million asset backed credit…

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Ed. And before I open the call up for questions, I’d like to make a few points. We are aggressively recruiting additions to our fertilizer management team to facilitate aggressive growth in the MLP. We’re also recruiting new and dependent Board members for our GT. We have no plans or intentions of making a secondary offering of the common LP units held by CVR Energy through subsidiaries. We have no need for the additional cash, we like the exposure to the nitrogen fertilizer market, and we will benefit from almost 70% of the distribution from CVR farmers. As I said in my letter to shareholders and our annual report, success is defined by plenty of work and working your plan. Our goal was and remains to be a leader among our peers. Over five years ago we recognized what was necessary to configure our facilities into flexible position and low cost operations. We executed the $500 million capital expansion program that is paying out handsomely today. We put in place a team of operators, managers, and support staff who shared our vision to carry us forward. We transitioned from a private equity enterprise to a non-control public company dedicated to returning value to those who invest in us. Two years ago, we focused on strengthening our balance sheet. We were saddled with a term loan that was getting long in the tooth, and we exited from a cash flow slough that cost the company almost $400 million over its course. Today, we have a well capitalized business, a flexible balance sheet, [interference], and we operate in a region of the country with one of the highest current profit margins. Our message today is no different than what I’ve said historically; we are a growth oriented company that will aggressively invest in projects and acquisitions that are accretive to our cash flow, and will deliver long term value to our shareholders. Whether we choose to reduce long term debt, diversify and expand our business, or invest in organic opportunities, you can be sure we will act in the best interest of our stakeholders. We truly appreciate your support, and I’d like to open the call up now for questions. Operator, we’re ready for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, gentlemen. (Operator Instructions.) Our first question is coming from the line of Arjun Murti with Goldman Sachs. Your line is live.

Arjun Murti

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is live

Thanks, Jack it’s Arjun. Jack, I appreciate your comments on the Brent/TIO/STI spreads. I guess a couple of related questions to that; you mentioned that over the next couple of years as people build out pipelines, you see the spread normalizing as the pipeline tariff; we certainly agree with that. I think the question is sort of the past and tying together and just would be interested in your thoughts in terms of some of these pipelines getting up and going and facing permitting issues, etc. Do you think that all that can really happen within a two year window, or is there risk that as these things get drawn out? And then maybe just a related question on your crude gathering business, which has obviously been an advantage for you all. I’m pretty sure it’s in and around your existing areas and where your refinery is. Are you looking to expand into some of the other shale plays further afield, or is it really just building upon the existing infrastructure that you have? Thank you. -- Goldman Sachs: Thanks, Jack it’s Arjun. Jack, I appreciate your comments on the Brent/TIO/STI spreads. I guess a couple of related questions to that; you mentioned that over the next couple of years as people build out pipelines, you see the spread normalizing as the pipeline tariff; we certainly agree with that. I think the question is sort of the past and tying together and just would be interested in your thoughts in terms of some of these pipelines getting up and going and facing permitting issues, etc. Do you think that all that can really happen within a two year window, or is there risk that as these things get drawn out? And then maybe just a related question on your crude gathering business, which has obviously been an advantage for you all. I’m pretty sure it’s in and around your existing areas and where your refinery is. Are you looking to expand into some of the other shale plays further afield, or is it really just building upon the existing infrastructure that you have? Thank you.

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

Well, let me talk first – answer your first question about the pipelines. There is a lot of risk today. Last year’s pipeline leaks have forced increased regulatory scrutiny on any new pipeline. Everybody wants to be first and then everybody sits there and either overbuilds or it doesn’t get built. We believe there will be some lines that will become active in 2013, and if you can get a couple of hundred thousand barrels per day out of Cushing, that will significantly reduce that Brent/WTI differential. Like I said in my comments, the wild card is you’ve got places like Bakken that are growing at 16,000 barrels a day, and we still don’t have any idea what the front range of the Rockies will look like, or even toward our other areas. I mean, even the Permian Basin is growing with enhanced oil recovery projects. Chaparral, re-using RCO2; two years from now will significantly increase their production. So you know, I believe that this is not – two years from now I’d like to talk about it and say I’m right, but I don’t expect very much in the way of alleviating the congestion between now and Q1 2013. On the second question, regarding our free gathering, we are looking up yield. We obviously have been growing in our back yard, but given our pipeline connections and the logistics we have, we are actually looking at growing our business into the DJ Basin and Bakken. Bakken gets a little bit more difficult, because you can hire people, and you can get a credit, you just can’t house them. It’s the new gold rush era, but certainly we are ready to gather crude in eastern Colorado. Our gathering business ranges today from eastern Colorado, all across Kansas, into western Missouri, and from southern Nebraska all the way down into Oklahoma. So the first natural progression would be for us to move into the DJ Basin. I don’t know if that answers your question, but –

Arjun Murti

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is live

Yeah, that’s very helpful. In terms of crudes you like, obviously the bigger the discount probably the better, but are you noticing material differences in the quality of these crudes in these various shale plays that makes you like them less or more? -- Goldman Sachs: Yeah, that’s very helpful. In terms of crudes you like, obviously the bigger the discount probably the better, but are you noticing material differences in the quality of these crudes in these various shale plays that makes you like them less or more?

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

Actually, most of the shale crudes are better quality than what we’ve been used to consuming. They’re a lot lighter, they’re sweeter; the lighter and sweeter they are, the more heavy and sour we can run.

Arjun Murti

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is live

And then you also have this fertilizer MLP now; you have a gathering business, a lot of that stuff is pipeline and related assets. Do you think about those assets down the road as being worthy of an MLP? I presume that would be a separate situation from the fertilizer MLP, but any thoughts there would be appreciated. Thank you very much. -- Goldman Sachs: And then you also have this fertilizer MLP now; you have a gathering business, a lot of that stuff is pipeline and related assets. Do you think about those assets down the road as being worthy of an MLP? I presume that would be a separate situation from the fertilizer MLP, but any thoughts there would be appreciated. Thank you very much.

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

At the size we are right now, while we’re sizable we don’t think we have the critical mass to take our petroleum logistics into an MLP. However, if we do acquire another asset or we look for assets, that can become a very easy way for us to improve our acquisition opportunities. This gathering business is very profitable and has been a keystone of our growth strategy.

Arjun Murti

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is live

Terrific, thank you very much. -- Goldman Sachs: Terrific, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, our next question’s coming from Rakesh Advani with Credit Suisse. Rakesh Advani – Credit Suisse: Hi, thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to start off with if you can give an indication of what kind of demand you’re seeing in your specific areas, for gasoline and (inaudible)?

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

We’re seeing a very strong demand. I mean, if you take a look, an indication – well, first of all, we’ve seen strong demand and growing demand, particularly in (inaudible) over the last year and a half. We’re seeing demand for gasoline increase; one of the best indicators of that is simply price. We have gone, from a few weeks ago, where the basis, meaning the price we receive for our gasoline over the 9X, we went from a regime of – until about a month ago where it was slightly negative to New York, and part of that was because of the rapid run up in the overall crack, today we are seeing gasoline basis, and it’s been increasing every day, as much as $0.09 a gallon over the 9X above gasoline and diesel, which is an indication of what demand is. With the flooding in Mississippi, there is also some concern that this flooding will impact a significant number of refineries further south as it comes down river. And then also, in general, Magellan inventories; which you know we are a Magellan based marketer, we do move into New Start and we do move up Enterprise, but Magellan inventories are lower this year, significantly lower this year than they were last year. All of that indicating that product demand is strong and product supply is weak. Rakesh Advani – Credit Suisse: Okay, thank you. And just another one is obviously you guys have been building up a lot of cash as you go forward; can we talk about what your planned uses are for the cash, and what kind of minimum level; what cash are you comfortable with holding on your balance sheet?

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

Alright; well you know, first of all, the first thing we had to do in conjunction with our offering was offer our bond holders redemption at 103 – what was the total number? $100 million?

Ed Morgan

Chief Executive Officer

That’s correct.

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

That window is still open, so we won’t know how much actually gets redeemed. We are getting redemptions, but we won’t know the number until the 16th. The minimum amount of cash that lets us sleep at night, if you sit and you look at our business, and you say “alright, what if we had another major outage like we did on the crack the first quarter of the year?” We would like to keep something in the range of $150 to $200 million of cash, just in reserve. That way we obviously can go into our undrawn ABL; I mean, our ABL has a lot of room, but at that level, given the amount of cash that this company generates, that’s kind of the level we’d like to stay at. As far as what do we do? I personally believe that we are getting full value for our fertilizer business, you can see where its March cap is. Adversely, because we are a single asset refiner, we’re trading below others who have multiple assets. You know, we’re not going to do it crazy, we’re not going to overpay, but we’re going to aggressively look for the asset that will increase shareholder value. I’m not a big fan of buying assets that don’t flow cash. Rakesh Advani – Credit Suisse: Okay, and then I guess just to follow up, you’re looking at, I guess, possibly refining acquisitions; would the preference be something close by to you guys, or would you think about going into a new kind of pattern?

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

You know, everybody’s saying the same thing, because everybody’s seeing the same thing we are. Anything in the Rocky Mountains and basically ped two [ph], I would not, however, move down into anything along the Gulf Coast. I’m not interested in buying a big monster plant on the Gulf, or a small plant on the Gulf. We think that they – compared to our earnings potential, they are going to be under pressure from the imports. Rakesh Advani – Credit Suisse: Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (operator instructions.) Our next question is from Todd Godfrey at UBS. Your line is live. Todd Godfrey – UBS: Hi, thanks for taking my question. My first one is of that $694 of consolidate cash, how much is at the UAN level?

Ed Morgan

Chief Executive Officer

$227. Todd Godfrey – UBS: $227, thank you. And the second question, I know the Coker outage in January caused this, but the percentage of the light medium sour was only like 60 basis points, versus around 7% last year. What should we expect to import? Should we get back to those low single digit levels?

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

No, actually we processed through the quarter, 17% heavy sour. Todd Godfrey – UBS: I beg your pardon, the light medium sour.

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

Oh, you know those are – when you look across those crudes, we buy crude which gives us the best refining value, so we don’t target for buy the same crude every day. As a matter of fact, that’s what we took – when we took over the company, that’s a thing we stopped. We don’t buy what we did a month ago or two years ago just because it’s there. We buy and run anywhere up to a dozen kinds of crudes every month, and every time we buy a crude we then rerun our LPs and see what goes next. And frankly, heavy crude displaces medium sour crude. Just so everybody, if I have new investors on this call, we are in a medium sour refinery. We run up to 1.2% blended sulfur, and we can run from 28 to 35 or 36 API, so we’re very flexible on API, and can run up to 1.2% sulfur. Generally, we buy the crudes that get us closest to that sulfur limit within that API range, and it’s based on economics and newest LP runs. So it’s nothing structural or fundamental, it’s just the way we buy crude every day. Todd Godfrey – UBS: Okay great, and I’m sure this is subject to change, but if I sort of use what the slate was in Q1, that would probably be a decent approximation for the rest of the year, assuming things stay the way they are?

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

I think we ran a little wider in January, because we didn’t want to produce as much cataseed [ph], so we will probably be heavier going forward. Todd Godfrey – UBS: Okay, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, our next question is coming from Graham Mars of Contarian Capital. Graham Mars – Contarian Capital: Good morning. I had a quick question about your comment regarding asset purchases. From where I sit, your refinery trades for under a billion dollars after you back out the UAN, and I can’t – I mean, correct me if I’m wrong, there can’t be a mid-con refinery that trades for under four times normalized cash flow and ignores the fact that there’s going to be an enormous windfall over the next two years, so it concerns me a little bit that you’re going to go out and pay full price for a mid-con refinery that trades at a material multiple premium to what your refinery trades for. Why not buy back shares of CBI?

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

That’s at least a possibility. Again, this is something we’re discussing with our Board, functionally though, we trade at a discount in large part to the fact that we are a single asset; so the way of growing shareholder value as well is to pick up the right asset. Again, I stated it, we will not overpay. I mean, if you look back at the history of this company, we started as a private equity enterprise in 2005, we looked at almost a dozen acquisitions, and we bought none because we found them to be overpriced. That same discipline will apply right now. If I can’t find something to do with the cash, we will find something else to do with the cash. Graham Mars – Contarian Capital: Okay, that’s comforting to hear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is coming from Gene Laverty with Bloomberg. Gene Laverty – Bloomberg: Hi, I just wanted to get a little more color on the refinery today, if you have anything. If the unit is down or how long it will be down?

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

Oh, our CCR – we had a flange fire this morning; and of course in these kind of incidents you just typically let them burn out. We had some instruments too, and again, all this came to me just before the call, but I have enough information to indicate that the unit will be down for several days. We’ll make accommodations; we actually have plans – the way I said it, if you have a plan and you work your plan, we actually have contingency plans in place any time a unit comes down. We would expect – we have hydrogen supply from the fertilizer facility, so that’s primarily what the CCR does. It does make gasoline as well, but the rate that the plant is running well, we’ll probably trim rates a little bit for the next several days and then come on back up. When I said we would run in the range of 115,000 barrels a day based on information given me, the Piedmont field, we believe that’s going to be pretty much our operating range. Certainly there’ll be some cost, but it’s not a major impact. We did have one minor injury, it was not a burn. An operator was actually responding to a leak that he heard, and in getting away from it, he tripped and fell. Gene Laverty – Bloomberg: Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you gentlemen. I am showing no further questions in my queue at this time.

Jack Lipinski

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you all so much for joining us. I appreciate you being with us, and we’re here to work for you. Join us next quarter, and we look forward to what the margin gods give us as we go forward, so thank you all.