Earnings Labs

Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Sun, Nov 5, 2023

$4.27

-0.70%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CVG's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. During today's presentation, all parties will be in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, the conference will be open for questions with instructions to follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Andy Cheung, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Andy Cheung

Management

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to our conference call. Joining me on the call today is Bob Griffin, Chairman of the Board and Interim President and CEO of CVG. This morning, we will provide a brief company update as well as commentary regarding our third quarter 2023 results. After which, we will open the call for questions. As a reminder, this conference call is being webcast in the Q3, 2023 earnings call presentation, which we will refer to during this call is available on our website. Both may contain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, expectations for future periods regarding market trends, cost-saving initiatives and new product initiatives, among others. Actual results may differ from anticipated results, because of certain risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties may include, but are not limited to, economic conditions in the markets in which CVG operates, fluctuations in the production volumes of vehicles for which CVG is a supplier, financial confidence, compliance and liquidity, risks associated with conducting business in foreign countries and currencies and other risks as detailed in our SEC filings. I will now turn the call over to Bob to provide a company update.

Bob Griffin

Management

Thank you, Andy, and good morning, everyone. I would like to kick-off today's call by thanking and celebrating all of the CVG team members across the company for their ongoing commitment to delivering on our strategic initiatives. Their efforts are clearly evident in the results we've delivered, not only this quarter, but over the last few quarters. These results provide further evidence of the progress we've been made growing and diversifying our revenue streams, optimizing our cost structure and increasing our margins, with the goal of becoming a larger, more profitable company. We remain excited about CVG's future, supported by the strength and depth of our organization and leadership teams. Our team continued to successfully drive strong performance, while delivering on the company's strategic goals, resulting in significantly improved profitability year-over-year. The year-to-date results, along with our ongoing cost discipline, gives us confidence that 2023 will show strong year-over-year margin improvements, and we believe we will have a record revenue year, subject to the resolution of the UAW strike at one of our customers. Andy and I will cover this in more detail. Our strong balance sheet, our culture of winning new business and our strong leadership team all position us well to achieve our long-term revenue and margin targets. Before turning to the details of the quarter, I want to highlight the election of Melanie Cook to the Board of Directors in September. Melanie brings a wealth of operating experience and expertise across a variety of business areas, including serving most recently as Chief Operating Officer of GE Appliances from 2017 until her retirement in 2021. Melanie also served on the Board of Directors of a leading appliance manufacturer based in Mexico from 2019 to 2021. She possesses nearly 30 years of global experience, including business unit leadership roles…

Andy Cheung

Management

Thanks, Bob. If you are following along in the presentation, please turn to Slide 12. Third quarter 2020 revenue was $246.7 million, as compared to $251.4 million in the prior year period. The decrease in revenues is due primarily to higher revenues in the prior year as a result of a significant COVID backlog in Asia Pacific within our Vehicle Solutions business, partially offset by growth in the Electrical Systems business. Foreign currency translation also favorably impacted third quarter 2023 revenues by $2 million or 0.8%. The company reported consolidated operating income of $12.4 million for the third quarter of 2023, compared to income of $9.5 million in the prior year period. The increase was driven by higher gross margins, improved pricing, partially offset by higher SG&A. The third quarter of 2023, adjusted operating income was $12.5 million, compared to $10.6 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was $16.6 million for the third quarter, up 16% year-over-year compared to $14.3 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 6.7% and expansion of 100 basis points, as compared to adjusted EBITDA margins of 5.7% in the third quarter of 2022. Interest expense was $2.6 million as compared to $2.8 million in the third quarter of 2022. The decrease in interest expense was primarily related to lower average debt balances during the respective periods, partially offset by higher interest rates on variable rate debt. Net income for the quarter was $7.3 million or $0.22 per diluted share, as compared to net income of $3.6 million or $0.11 per diluted share in the prior year period. Moving to the segment results on this slide. In our Vehicle Solutions segment, third quarter revenues decreased 6% to $145.4 million, compared to the year ago quarter due primarily to the previous year benefiting from…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Joe Gomes from NOBLE Capital. Please go ahead.

Joe Gomes

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

Andy Cheung

Management

Good morning, Joe.

Bob Griffin

Management

Good morning.

Joe Gomes

Analyst

I wanted to start on the revenue. We've got a lot of the new contracts at least in the first half of the year, the truck builds were pretty good. But it's been down sequentially in the first three quarters of this year. It sounds like Q4 might be pretty challenged in and of itself. And just wondering - where you guys are looking at revenues and when - are the - all these new contracts are really going to start impacting that top line, to try and take down some of the cyclicality in the Class 8 bills?

Andy Cheung

Management

Yes, thanks Joe. As we mentioned in the earlier part of the year, we expect that our second half of the business is going to slow a little bit. So Q3 actually come in quite in line with our anticipation. Sequentially, as you can see, we have some decline in our vehicle solution business. That's a twofold. One is the Class 8 production overall in the market, production was down by about 3% to 4% from Q2 to Q3. And also, in Europe, we see a little bit more extended shutdown with our customers this year. Some of them are planned, some of them are unplanned. So they contributed to the sequential slowdown, not too far from our anticipation as we expected. To your point about future growth of our platform and new contracts, you can see our electrical business growing nicely, 17% year-over-year, and we'll continue to see those ramp of the business. While the timing of the ramp is largely dependent on the customer as well. So as you can see, the two new plants, is now up and running. So, we are ready to capture those new platforms and grow with the customers. So, we kind of - are seeing things that are in line with our anticipation early in the year.

Joe Gomes

Analyst

Thank you for that. And on the aftermarket, it's kind of little surprising to see that decline both sequentially and year-over-year. Maybe you can give us a little bit more. You got the new website up and running earlier this year. You had some big hopes for that in growth for this year. And maybe you can give us a little more color on what's going on in the aftermarket side?

Andy Cheung

Management

Yes, that's right. It's a good question, Joe. The aftermarket, this quarter has some decline as well. It's mostly related to the aftermarket sits here in North America. We lost a bit of volume there this year. To your point about the e-commerce initiative, as we mentioned last quarter, it didn't ramp as fast as we wanted to. So, we're adjusting our different channels and working for different strategies. It's still early days. In this e-commerce channel, we are still working on different initiatives. We've got some backlog last year will help us. That's why this year, you see a little decline year-over-year as we move up for those backlogs earlier in the year that slowed the demand a little bit. So as you mentioned, we're still working through it. We will continue to look at this segment as an attractive growth segment. So, we are - keep working it.

Joe Gomes

Analyst

Okay. One more, if I may. Pardon me, on the two new plants, maybe a little more color on how they are ramping up, compared to your expectations. And you mentioned already looking at potentially another site in Morocco. What capital expense would that entail and the timing on that?

Andy Cheung

Management

So from a capital expenditure, Joe, this year, we guided in around the $25 million range plus/minus. We already have that included in our range for these two facilities. Going forward, you'll continue to see that our CapEx will be around that 2.5% to 3.5% range as well. So also included those expansion that we are working through right now. As Bob mentioned, we are in the evaluation stage of another facility in Morocco. So, this will help us capture the new wins and the ramp of the future growth. So, this is all part of the plan and pretty consistent, with what we communicated before from a CapEx standpoint.

Bob Griffin

Management

I would just chime in. This is Bob. I'd just chime in on it, because I think it's an excellent questions. In addition to evaluating the benefits of a second plant in Morocco, we are also, at the same time, completing our business plan for expansion in Europe, which feeds into that and involves the hiring of a number of professionals, to complete the management structure there. So, we're quite committed to growing the Electrical Systems business in the European markets, and that will feed into that capital expenditure decision.

Joe Gomes

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll get back in queue.

Bob Griffin

Management

Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Franzreb from Sidoti. Please go ahead.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Good morning, guys. And Thanks for taking the questions. I just want to go back to the previous question. I think he's right to suggest that the new Moroccan plant when that comes on board kind of layers on top of some of that new business wins expectations. So maybe you could provide some clarity of, if you're looking at adding a new Morocco plant now, when would you like to have it up and running?

Andy Cheung

Management

John, in our past experience, it will take a little bit over a year for us to get that up and running and then roughly a few more quarters to get that to fully ramp revenues.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Thanks, Andy. That scales it properly. I appreciate that. And going back to your expectations on the Class 8 truck market in the near term in the December quarter, is that different than what it was, say, three months ago?

Andy Cheung

Management

No, not so much. As you look back into history, sequentially, the Q4 quarter is always seasonally just a smaller quarter. We don't expect major changes this year. And as Bob mentioned, the only one wild card right now for us, is one of the truck customers is actually working for a UAW strike, and there's a little bit of a difficult-to-predict situation. But other than that, overall, I think the market is in line with prior year seasonality.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Okay. So a year ago's fourth quarter, was there still benefits from Asian COVID demand that we should not expect in this year's fourth quarter?

Andy Cheung

Management

No, there was really a one quarter mostly Q3 impact. You probably remember China was the last country to have the COVID lockdown opened up, there was really at the end of Q2 and then when that opened up, it brings some additional backlog opportunities a year ago. So that will gradually level out. We don't see that being a significant factor in the future.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Got it. And on the third quarter, the Industrial Automation business had a bang out quarter, compared to the prior two or three. Was there something pulled forward? Can you just talk to why it was so much stronger than the previous three quarters?

Andy Cheung

Management

You're right. So, we actually mentioned that in our earnings release, the industrial automation business this quarter benefited from some sales of inventory that we have previously accumulated. You probably remember back about a year ago, we had a very significant warehouse business that is actually going through a fairly significant decline in that market. And we did roll off some inventory at that time, team worked really hard trying to find way to liquidate and get some value out of those inventory, and we were able to pull that together in Q3. So it's helped that business in the quarter.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Got it. And just one last question. I'll get back in the queue. It's November, so I assume that you have some visibility into at least how the first quarter of the year is going to kind of play out. And you referenced, Bob you referenced that ACT is talking about 18% drop in the Class 8 truck market. What is your booking profile kind of look like? Does it really kind of drop off in the fourth quarter? Or is it maybe something that's the second half of the year, kind of a thing - we should be thinking about you versus ACT? Just any color will be helpful?

Andy Cheung

Management

Yes, so I'll say this, John. Whatever you see in the ACT quarterly look of next year's volume, we are kind of seeing the similar demand level right now. So Q1 is still holding pretty well. If you look at ACT, Q1 is still a pretty strong bill and then gradually over the rest of 2024, the number is coming down. So that's the ACT forecast right now. Frankly, maybe there's some impact, because of the strike. We also are not seeing full visibility at this point. We believe that, the customer is going to give us more clarity once the strike is over resolved. I think we'll be in a better position on next earnings call to talk about 2024.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Okay. Andy, thank you very much. I'll get back in the queue.

Andy Cheung

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your next question comes from Gary Prestopino from Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

Andy Cheung

Management

Good morning, Gary.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

A couple of questions here. Cost reduction programs, are you still on track to deliver $30 million this year? That's what the number was in Q2. So I just want to get an idea if that's still on track?

Andy Cheung

Management

Yes. We are still on track to get cost reduction program targets. As you can see, the margin improvement year-over-year. That's part of that cost reduction program. You can also see that, as we mentioned in the past, we were able to use the cost reduction to offset quite a bit of the inflation is still happening, particularly in the emerging market wage rate. So, we are still on track, and we're happy with what we are doing. Overall, we are executing around 400 projects across all our facilities. Most of them have impact in '23. Some of them will have a benefit in '24. So still ongoing, still part of our culture, continue to executing on that.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

Okay. And just going over my notes from last quarter, you said you're going to add $150 million in new business wins, which you probably should get to since you've done $140 million year-to-date. Are you still confident in the target of $100 million in new wins per year next year and in 2025?

Andy Cheung

Management

Well, as you can see, every year, the business outlook is a little bit lumpy. So, the team definitely did a great job this year coming out from the beginning of the year, and we are on track to that $150 million target. We're pretty happy with the performance. Next year, it's a little early to tell is the customer sourcing schedules and other factors that may affect it. I think we talked about that in the past the near-term annual target, we expect about $100 million. So that should still be our pretty good estimates for next few years.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

Okay. And then just with this Class 8 truck build, it looks like there's a delta from the projection from Q2 of anywhere from down 3,000 to down 12,000 versus the numbers that are now being projected. Is most of that expected to fall in Q4? Or - did most of that really fall in Q3?

Andy Cheung

Management

I think we would say both. We already see Q3 actually came down, compared to Q2 when you look about the sequential performance of the market. Q3 was down about 3%, and the ACT numbers suggesting that about 6% down sequentially is Q4. So that's what we are seeing. I think that's what the market is adjusting as well.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

And then I think, just there was a mention that - does ACT have anything out there? Or - did you give some thoughts on what you think it will be in 2024?

Andy Cheung

Management

Yes, so as I mentioned earlier, the ACT's outlook for '24 is that Q1 is still holding pretty strong and then we'll start to see some drop-off from Q2 to Q4. But overall, they were suggesting the market will be down between 15% to 20%. So, the number is still changing every time they come up with new outlook, but that's the range that they've been publishing.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

That's 15% to 20% off of 2003 or 2004, on units?

Andy Cheung

Management

Correct. That's right.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Steven Martin from Slater. Please go ahead.

Steven Martin

Analyst

Yes guys. Couple questions. The Electrical Systems margin was down a little, is that due to the startup of the new plants? And when would we expect those to not negatively impact margins?

Andy Cheung

Management

Yes. Good morning, Steve. Yes, you're absolutely right. So with bank a little bit here this quarter, the main reason is additional labor costs and overhead costs, because now we have two extra facilities. And as you can see, when the volume ramp back up, or we'll gain some leverage there. I'll call it maybe a couple of quarters, then we'll see the full efficiency back. That's what we are anticipating. The timing can be a little bit less predictable, depends on the customers' schedules on when do they launch new products and things like that, but that's what I would expect at this point.

Steven Martin

Analyst

All right. And on the aftermarket, I guess we visited two years ago before your time, and there was a lot of emphasis on aftermarket. And last year, you talked - all this year, you've talked about building inventory and reorienting your plants for aftermarket. When should we expect to see aftermarket positive on a year-over-year basis?

Andy Cheung

Management

So, you're right. So, we have work to do in aftermarket. So, we'll say that. I think the team working really hard, trying different channels, things [ph] with the e-commerce is not going as fast. You probably also seen that in our recent announcements, we have made some leadership change in that business. We brought in a seasoned leader. So, we're going to be re-ramping the business. So, I'll tell you that we're looking at it really hard. And hopefully, our new leadership, is going to benefit the segments. I'll come back maybe next quarter, with little bit more details about how we are going to address that and improve that business.

Steven Martin

Analyst

Okay. The next question is on your debt level. Can you give - if all things were equal and interest rates didn't change and your debt level net of cash, is where it is today, what your interest expense would look like if you didn't reduce any more debt?

Andy Cheung

Management

Well, if we don't reduce more debt, we're roughly flat. Our interest rate is actually pretty stable at this point. You probably remember we said that we have an interest rate swap for that we put in last year that helped us offset some of the rate increases. That's where we are right now. And as you can see, we keep generating free cash flow here for the short-term, I would say you will continue to see us paying down debt and interest expense absolute dollar-wise, you'll continue to see a decline.

Steven Martin

Analyst

Okay. Are you now in the lowest pricing tier on your credit agreement?

Andy Cheung

Management

Not yet. Not yet.

Steven Martin

Analyst

So, if you were to cross into that lower pricing care, you might even see a little more change in spread?

Andy Cheung

Management

Yes, it will. But as you see in our filing is not that significant, right. It's 25 bps per tier so.

Steven Martin

Analyst

Okay.

Andy Cheung

Management

I would say our paying down debt is probably driving more of the benefit in expense.

Steven Martin

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much.

Andy Cheung

Management

Thank you, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Franzreb from Sidoti. Please go ahead.

John Franzreb

Analyst

It looks like you eliminated the 2027 bridge slide. Are you backing off that expectation? Or what is the reason for not including it in this presentation?

Andy Cheung

Management

No, we are not, John. So, we'll continue to look at our alternatives certain target as our long-term goal. There's no change to that. We just feel like it's a long-term target. We didn't need to do it every quarter in our earnings call. So, in other investor presentation, we'll probably spend more time talking about long-term, but we want to spend more time talking about the quarter in the near term. So, with no change in our long-term target.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Fair enough, Andy. Thanks for that clarification. Thank you.

Andy Cheung

Management

Absolutely.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to Mr. Griffin for closing remarks.

Bob Griffin

Management

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everybody, for joining today's call. I'm proud of our achievements and the performance for the quarter. However, I'm even more excited for the opportunities that lie ahead for CVG. We remain encouraged by our business outlook and we look forward to continuing to execute our long-term growth strategy. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.