Bradley Dodson
Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Carolyn. I'd like to discuss our full year 2022 guidance on a consolidated basis, including the underlying outlook for each of the regions, as well as the underlying assumptions related to our guidance. We are initiating full year 2022 guidance of revenues between $600 million and $615 million, EBITDA between $90 million and $95 million. Our full year 2022 capital expenditures forecast is a range of $20 million to $25 million. Capital expenditures are expected to be high year-over-year in 2022 as we normalize our maintenance capital spending for our Canadian lodges and Australian villages after several years of prioritizing free cash flow. That being said, our primary financial objective continues to be maximizing free cash flow generation. Based on the EBITDA CapEx guidance just outlined, an expected interest expense of $10 million for 2022 and minimal expected cash taxes and working capital investment we expect 2022 free cash to range between $55 million and $65 million. To bridge our 2022 guidance from the 2021 actual, our 2021 adjusted EBITDA included approximately $13 million of non-operating items comprised of $3.5 million of Canadian emergency wage subsidy proceeds, $6.2 million in gains on sale of those assets and $3.4 million from other miscellaneous items such as insurance proceeds and contract settlement. Excluding those items from the 2021 results, our 2021 adjusted EBITDA would've been approximately $95 million, in line with our 2022 guidance -- EBITDA guidance of $90 million to $95 million. We've included any non-operating items in our 2022 guidance figures and are not aware of any such items at this time. The single largest uncertainty and our 2022 guidance is the timing and duration of the pipeline projects in British Columbia that we are currently supporting with our mobile camp assets. Should these projects extend further into 2022 or even into 2023? We could see adjusted EBITDA in 2022 improve by up to approximately $7 million to $10 million. I will now provide the regional outlooks and corresponding underlying assumptions by region. In Canada, as we look into 2022, we are encouraged by the recent uplift in oil prices. We know that our customers are currently prioritizing the return of capital to shareholders and need to be convinced of the longer term stability across commodity prices and the broader economy, as well as improving COVID-19 dynamics before materially increasing investment in Canada. While activity in our lodges should remain steady, 2022 mobile camp activity will be negatively impacted by the completion of pipeline construction projects throughout the year, including the incurrence of the related demobilization costs. We currently expect relatively consistent year-over-year turnaround activity in the second and third quarters of 2022, but as discussed in prior years, we won't get a more accurate view on this until at least March when customers look to secure turnaround rooms. Canadian mobile camp activity related to the Coastal GasLink Pipeline will remain relatively strong throughout the first nine months of the year after which the three mobile camps are currently expected to wind down by the end of 2022. However, our mobile camps supporting the TMX pipeline, expansion is expected to continue into 2023. When these pipeline-related mobile camps projects roll off, we incur the cost associated with the demobilization of these assets. We have currently included all three demobilizations in our current 2022 guidance, with costs of approximately $7 million to $10 million in total, or approximately $2 million to $4 million of demobilization costs per camp. If one of the fourth quarter demobilizations slips in 2023, we expect the demobilizations costs of approximately $2 million to $4 million to also slip into 2023. Our Canadian guidance primarily depends on the following three assumptions. Decreasing COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations from current levels, and they do not impact industrial activity. Customers are currently prioritizing cap -- return of capital to shareholders versus deploying capital into their operations and this is reflected in our guidance. That being said, customer 2022 CapEx budgets are marginally higher than 2021, and with WTI oil trading over $90 a barrel we're consciously optimistic that customers will -- could increase capital expenditures further later in 2022. Lastly, availability of skilled labor continues to be an issue, limiting our customer's ability to increase staffing levels, particularly for turnarounds or construction projects, as well as impacting our ability to increase our headcount. Turning to Australia. We are encouraged by the significant increase in metallurgical coal prices in the back half of 2021 and into early 2022. However, customers are still focusing on capital discipline due the volatility in met coal prices, leaner weather and the lingering China-Australia trade dispute. Our current guidance reflects continued capital discipline rather than the current price for met coal. Iron ore prices remain at extremely healthy levels and customer activity in Western Australia remain strong, but COVID related travel and border restrictions continue to significantly increase the labor costs for our integrated services business. We are beginning to see signs of the restriction relief throughout Australia, but we believe labor shortages will remain throughout the year 2022. For our U.S. business, the oil and gas price environment has improved significantly in recent months, but similar to our Canadian and Australian customers, there has been an emphasis on living within cash flow versus growth. We expect our well side and offshore businesses to improve throughout the year, but this is offset by lower contributions from our U.S. lodges due to the sale of the West Permian Lodge in October, 2021. I will conclude our prepared comments by understanding the key elements of our strategy as we navigate this extraordinary market climate. Our mandate is as follows: We will prioritize the safety and wellbeing of our guests, employees, and the communities we work in. We will manage our cost structure in accordance with the occupancy outlook across our three regions. We will continue to enhance our best-in-class hospitality offerings. We will allocate capital prudently to maximize free cash flow generation while we continue to reduce debt and begin to return capital shareholders through our share purchase program. As we continue to reduce debt, we will seek opportunities to further diversify our revenue and free cash flow generation through organic opportunities. With that, we're have to take any questions.