Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2012 earnings conference call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Thursday, December 20, 2012. I would now like to turn the conference over to Howard Frank, the Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Good morning, and good afternoon to everyone. Welcome to the Carnival Corporation conference call. With me this morning is Micky Arison, David Bernstein and Beth Roberts, and we are all here in Miami on the call. Let's start the call. I'm going to turn it over to David, and he can take you through the fourth quarter and the year 2012. David?

Thank you, Howard. Before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this conference call will be forward-looking. I will refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release. Also, all of my references to revenue and cost metrics will be in local currencies, therefore unless otherwise noted, as this is a more useful measure of our business trends. Our non-GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.13. The fourth quarter came in $0.04 above the midpoint of our September guidance despite a $0.02 impact from Hurricane Sandy. The improvement was driven by higher net revenue yields worth $0.05, as pricing on close-in bookings was 1% better than expected, a trend similar to last quarter. And lower fuel prices, combined with more favorable currency exchange rates, positively impacted the results by $0.03. Both of these improvements were partially offset by higher-than-expected net cruise costs, excluding fuel, costing $0.04 per share. Now let's look at our fourth quarter operating results versus the prior year. Our capacity increased 2.7%. The North American brands were up 3.7%, while Europe, Australia and Asia brands -- or as we call them, our EAA brands -- were up 1.2%. Our total net revenue yield decreased 4.5 points in the fourth quarter but showed sequential improvement versus the third quarter. It should be noted that almost half of the decline in the fourth quarter was driven by Costa. Excluding Costa, net revenue yields decreased 2.4%, driven by a 4% decline in net ticket revenue yields, and that was partially offset by a 2% increase in net onboard and other revenue yields. With respect to our net ticket yields, the North American brands were down 3.7%, driven by declines in late fees in Europe and Alaska, while yields in the Caribbean and all of the…

Thank you, David. Before I move to the outlook, let me begin my comments by framing the 2013 year. We have 2 ships scheduled for delivery in 2013. The first is the 2,200-lower-berth AIDAstella, which will be delivered in March to our very successful AIDA brand in the German-speaking market; and the next one will be the new-generation Royal Princess, with 3,600 lower berths, which will be delivered sometime towards the end of May. These 2 ships, together with 3 ships delivered during this past year, 2012, will drive a 3.6% increase in cruise capacity in 2013. For the full year 2013, our cruise programs will be approximately 33% in the Caribbean, 19% in the Mediterranean, 12% in Europe outside of the Mediterranean, 10% in the Australia-Asia region and with the balance in various other itineraries. The largest increase in our cruise programs in 2013 from a percentage standpoint is in the Australia-Asia region and in Europe outside of the Mediterranean. Our earnings guidance for 2013 has been established within a range of $2.20 to $2.40 or a midpoint of $2.30 per share, about 20% higher than in 2012. Our earnings guidance for 2013 assumes that the U.S. does not go off the fiscal cliff in January and go into an economic recession during 2013. Hopefully, wisdom will prevail in Washington, and January will be the start of a solid 2013 wave season. In Europe, where we have a strong market presence, we anticipate continuing struggling economies during 2013, much as we experienced during 2012. With regard to our strategy to grow our European cruise businesses, let me make a few comments. From a longer-term viewpoint, we are committed to maintaining our strong national brands presence in Europe. We believe European economies will improve over time and our strong European…

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

I guess just trying to understand how much it's that you're being conservative in your guidance versus how challenging the outlook is, because you had talked about, this year, that Costa's occupancy -- the Costa brand alone, that occupancy has been down around 6 points. And so it seems like even just recovering that occupancy alone for the Costa brand would get to the company-wide yield increase that you guys are talking about across all the brands. So I guess I wonder if you can just put some perspective on that. And then, I guess, just how much lower are the other EAA brands x Costa? I guess, that's the only thing that would kind of make the company-wide be -- only up as much as Costa's occupancy recovery.

Let me give you a -- kind of the broad strokes on it because there's a lot of details that we probably can't get into on this call. But we're going to have higher yields in North America, as I indicated. We're going to have higher yields in Costa, and we estimate that perhaps 50% of our yield deterioration in Costa last year will be recovered -- in the neighborhood of that will be recovered this year, in -- this coming year in 2013. And the rest of Europe outside of Costa will have lower yields. So that's sort of a composite of the 3 elements that make up the yield picture. And what I've tried to indicate in my comments, Robin, is that in a year in which we do have increased capacity in Europe, especially in Germany where we also had increased capacity in 2012; and given the headwinds in the economies in Europe and the very close-in booking pattern that we're seeing in Europe, in Germany, the U.K. and in Southern Europe, it's very difficult to forecast yields because it depends on how bookings start to come in, in the wave period. Whether we're conservative or we're not conservative, I think it is a forecast based on the best work that our brands can give us right now in these markets. And could we do better? Sure. Could we do worse? Of course. It is early, and let's see how it goes.

Robin, a couple of points to make is one, I think we've been consistent in saying that recovery at Costa is not a 1-year issue. It's going to be multiple years. And we're forecasting a recovery of about half the yield deterioration. That's one item. Two is it's important to understand that we don't cycle through this until the second quarter because the first quarter was done. And the timing of first quarter in this instance versus competitors is very important, because it did happen in the middle of our first quarter when the first quarter was done. So that's impacting it as well. So I think those 2 -- the combination of those 2 things significantly answer your question.

And maybe just one point of clarification, because clearly, no one would have expected full recovery at Costa in 1 year. But it seems like the occupancy would be something that could come back pretty quickly, given that it came back between -- from January until the end of this year, that -- therefore, that 2013 Costa occupancy would be pretty well recovered, even though there would clearly be work to do on the price recovery. Is that occupancy for Costa -- are you not expecting it to be back to recovering those 6 percentage points of occupancy?

Robin, yes, we are -- the 50 -- included in the 50% that Howard mentioned is a full occupancy recovery. Costa was very close to normal occupancy in the fourth quarter, and we are expecting normal occupancy and full ships for 2013. And that is the full 6% recovery in their occupancy. But as Howard mentioned, given the economy in Europe, they are expecting some price recovery on top of that, but the overall economic situation in Europe is tempering the amount of price recovery that they are expecting to get.

Plus, I would like to add if you expect the first quarter being down in pricing for the Costa brand, then their recovery in the back half of the year is a little bit heavier pricing.

And our next question comes from the line of Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.

So, Howard, this is also for you, just as I'm trying to digest your guidance. And I'm going to kind of preface my comments with knowing that -- with just acknowledging that. And you all have seen, as we've talked about this for many years, that talking to travel agents doesn't necessarily always correlate to what you guys are seeing. But a lot of us do it because it's helpful in our research. And that being said, our travel agents are implying to us that the 2013 yields in North America are more robust than your guidance would imply. So -- and then also on top of that, just lower capacity industry-wide should also help. So kind of if you add those 2 together, what you're seeing is that North America seems more muted than a lot of us were expecting. And I'm just trying to figure out, is this more related to perhaps the fiscal cliff right now, what we're seeing? Maybe people are holding back. Maybe some Sandy. Or are we just totally off?

Well, I'm happy to hear that travel agents are feeling that pricing is going up. I think that's a positive. I mean, I don't know how...

But we've also said that North America pricing is up.

Yes. I don't know how...

Well, they're saying more than what you're -- higher than what you're saying.

I don't know how that translates to our outlook, though, because I think there are many factors that play in our yield outlook that travel agents -- you can't translate from travel agents' comments and/or their individual data points. And it depends on what they're selling. If they're selling -- Caribbean looks strong now, so Caribbean business is pretty good. But then, there are long cruises. There's Europe. There's a whole variety of things that we look at. And when you ask them a question, I'm not quite sure how it's asked, how the details of it is...

[indiscernible] first quarter is not in their mindset.

Yes, so it's very -- but I guess the bottom line is it's hard to know when we see the reports that you guys write in terms of Europe, canvassing of travel agents, and we kind of scratch our heads -- sometimes, it's right on and sometimes, we kind of scratch our heads and see a little bit differently than they do. So it doesn't always correlate.

One thing that you've got to keep in mind is that if you look at it on a quarter-by-quarter basis, we gave guidance for the first quarter down 2% to 3%, because as Micky said, when the incident happened last year, we were almost done -- we were halfway through the quarter and the booking was essentially done. And last year, our yields were up quite a bit in the first quarter, so we're going to be down 2% to 3%. Howard had indicated we do expect the second quarter to be up. But when you look at the full year guidance of 1% to 2%, that does imply, let's say, 2% to 3% yield increase in the back half of the year. So it's possible that what you're getting in the discussion with the travel agents is more relating to those types of prices than it is the first quarter, where we're down 2% to 3% from a very strong prior year.

Yes. Last year, in North America, we were up 5 points in the first quarter. And I don't think the travel agents are focused on when you cycle through a quarter. They're just focusing on the general business.

Yes, that's helpful. And then, Howard, something that you said actually gets to the next point of my question, which is, can you just kind of give us some color how things -- you said that the Caribbean is strong now, but maybe some longer cruises aren't doing as well. Can you just give us some color so we can understand the consumer mentality in terms of what things are selling well and what things have more challenges?

Can I just say that our booking pattern in the fall has been strong? When you consider last year, it was extremely strong. But again, until we cycle the event and get into wave season, it just makes it very, very difficult.

Yes. And on top of that, we had the elections this year, which always presents a challenge in terms of consumer distraction. And then right after the election, when things start to normalize, we had the issue with the fiscal cliff, which continues to nag us. So it -- and as well as Sandy. But I think -- yes, I mean I think we're doing okay. I think bookings -- I think if we're seeing challenges from a North America standpoint, it's more on volume in terms of we're running behind. Although pricing is okay for Europe and Alaska going forward, we're running behind on occupancy. So the question is, is that going to resolve itself during wave season? We start to -- and then there is also the challenge of the higher air costs that we're all dealing with on the longer cruises, so -- but we're trying to hold price and we think -- everybody thinks they're going to get there. But it's a long time between now and late spring and summer when these cruises start to occur.

Okay. So it sounds like your guidance is not trying to anticipate what things might look like once we get past hopefully this fiscal cliff issue and other things; it's what you're kind of seeing now.

The guidance is based on what our operating companies are telling me. And then we kind of take a look at it and if we think that -- we may make some minor tweaks to it, but only minor tweaks to it.

We have a couple of things that makes forecasting always challenging at this time of year. One is the booking curve has clearly moved in, which makes forecasting tougher. And the fact that we have to do this prior to wave also makes it tougher.

You could change your fiscal year.

Yes, we could. We've talked about that.

I think the best thing is to resolve the fiscal cliff, and we'll all be happy. Even if we have to pay more taxes, let it happen already. It's painful.

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Badishkanian with Citigroup.

My question is, if you go back to when you had your last earnings call, have things changed meaningfully? Like if you were to have given guidance then versus now, would you say it's about -- would have been about the same?

When you say would I have changed guidance, I don't think I know what guidance would've been back 3 months ago for 2013.

I would say one thing. We have been saying that Northern Europe and the U.K. have been strong. And in fact, in '12, we had a good year in both Germany and the U.K. We're starting to have -- to see some effect of a weaker economy both in the U.K. and Germany, which we really didn't see a whole lot in '12. So if there's anything different, I'd say we're a little bit more concerned. Although those brands are performing well, we are a little bit concerned going forward as the booking curve has tightened in those countries.

Yes, I guess I was just trying to get at, have things gotten a little bit incrementally better or worse since then? And that's helpful. And as you kind of look out to Europe, I know you typically talk about some of the markets that are weaker and stronger. Has anything changed over the last month or 2 in any of the markets to make you a little bit more optimistic or pessimistic? Just maybe point out a market or 2 that you think has maybe changed.

I think I just did. It's really Germany and the U.K. where we had a very good '12, looks a little bit weaker and the booking curve has moved in.

On the other hand, I should say, in Germany, we have -- just in the German market, we have a lot of additional capacity coming in on top of capacity last year. So there's a big capacity increase and we've got a closer-in booking curve. Germany, you may recall the German market, I think, was more profoundly affected than -- like Italy as a result of last year's -- last January's event. So I think that's been a little bit slower to come back, although all the data and consumer research we've recently seen suggests that the German market will come back and that things -- and people are feeling much more positive about taking cruises. So we think that's still a good market.

The other thing that I haven't seen a lot of focus on is some of our competitors have talked about reducing capacity in Europe. But in reality, our 2 largest competitors together have increased their Northern Europe capacity by over 20% next year. So the Northern Europe itineraries have tended to be the highest yielding itineraries in the European market, and that capacity increase -- it will be interesting to see how that all plays out.

Our next question will come from the line of Harry Curtis with Nomura group.

Quick question. This 1% to 2% is not a particularly satisfying number, and could you give us your perspective after 2 years of Arab Spring and Costa? Is it disappointing to you? And do you think that some of it is perhaps related to the amount of capacity that has moved into Europe? Does it maybe argue for moving some of the capacity out of Europe? And then the last add-on question is, from the point of view of profitability per berth, how close are you in Asia to maybe shifting some capacity to Asia and lifting your yields and EBITDA per berth?

So you made 3 comments, Harry. This is Howard. Is the 1% to 2% not -- are we not satisfied with it? I think -- directionally, I think we're satisfied with it. Sometimes, it's difficult -- consensus for yields in the investment community don't always match reality or what we see as reality in our particular markets, or even what our competitors are doing. We do have a lot more increase in capacity, I think, in 2013 than our competitors have. One of those increases will be in the German market. Perhaps that -- and on top of capacity increases we had last year. So when you look at Europe and Germany, we like the business there. We think it's a great -- it's an under-penetrated market. It's got great demographics. And even in these very challenging times, we get very good profitability from these brands, even if yield's down 1% to 2%, and excellent returns. So we see the strategy as staying in Europe as the right strategy for us. And to continue to penetrate those markets, it only strengthens us from a competitive standpoint in the future. So -- which is my comments -- my earlier comments. I don't think moving ships around because we start to see some weakness in a particular market. By the time you move them around and get them to the new markets, then the old markets come back. So to us, that's a very short-term solution to what we think is a poor long-term strategy.

A couple of things. One is I think you got to look at the yield improvement after the first quarter, which is higher than the number you stated. Secondly, satisfied -- I wouldn't be satisfied if it was 5 or 6. I mean we always want more, obviously, and we always push for more. The reality though is that our focus is profitably, our focus is profit per berth day. We get overly focused on yield sometimes. And a great example of this is the fact that we're forecasting fuel consumption to be down 5% next year. And to do that, we had to make some itinerary adjustments that risk yield. And so we'll trade yields for lower cost. And then it -- the yield number looks lower. The example I've used in the past was when we went from 6 to 8 transatlantic on Queen Mary to 7, we would be perfectly happy to have gotten 6.5 days of yield versus 7 because the reduction in the fuel cost made up for more than the 1-day yield. So it's -- yield is just part of the equation. The real key is doing everything we can to increase our profit per berth day.

And then just a quick -- I'm sorry, go ahead.

I was going to say, your last -- you mentioned Asia there at the end, and I think both Howard and I alluded to Asia and the fact that there will be more announcements relative to Asia going forward.

Yes. As you know, we've opened a Singapore corporate office that Pier Foschi will be heading up for us. And by the end of the first quarter, we should have more deployment announcement in that region.

And also, Mario Draghi said earlier in the week that the European economy is coming back in the second half of the year. So we're waiting for that to happen.

And God bless us if his crystal ball is accurate. Just one follow-up on Asia. Separating yield growth from cost, how does Asia compare to Europe and North America from both your ability to price up? And also is it just more expensive to operate in Asia?

It is more expensive to operate. And brand by -- the question you asked is very difficult when you take a mix of all our brands. But if you look at the Carnival Cruise Line deployment in Australia, yes, their yields are up. If you look at the Princess deployment, it's also positive. So clearly, again, we're going to make deployment decisions, hopefully long term, to increase our profit per berth day.

But the costs that we're looking at today with a very limited fleet, especially in Asia, it's not necessarily representative. If we had built a fleet there, we have more ships over there, we'll get some -- certainly some shoreside benefits from it. And as infrastructure is created over there to handle the ships, there will be some benefits to cost. So it will take some time, but costs essentially are higher, but the yields are good. So we're okay. And we'll just have to be a little bit patient. But we think it's a great market to develop and a great new market for us.

And our next question comes from the line of Sharon Zackfia with William Blair. Sharon Zackfia - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: I'm kind of intrigued by the comments you made about the U.K. and Germany getting somewhat softer. And I think it would probably be helpful to know just roundly kind of what the yields were like for your U.K. brands and how [ph] you did this year, and what the differential might be going into 2013 and how much that's weighing on your overall yield guidance.

Yes, look, I think we said yields will be down. We're not going to get into that. We don't really, Sharon, discuss yields for individual companies in the group. We never -- we just don't think that's a smart thing to do from a competitive standpoint. But from a directional standpoint, they're going to be down. And we have gotten more into the yield issues in Costa because of the unique circumstances last year, but we're not going to go beyond that. Sharon Zackfia - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: I guess, are you seeing stabilization yet in either of the countries? Or is it a kind of moving target right now?

What we're seeing is a close-in booking pattern both in Germany and the U.K. And we haven't seen actually that much deterioration in pricing. But the question is, if you don't start to see the business coming in strongly in wave season, you may have to move some pricing down. So some of this yield guidance we're giving you is really a future, to look at the crystal ball and say, "Well, what possibly can happen in the third and fourth quarters here?" And it's difficult -- it's more difficult to estimate it today because of the closer-in booking pattern. Sharon Zackfia - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Can you remind us what the -- sorry, go ahead.

Clearly, the German economy weakened in the second half of the year, and all of our capacity increase in Europe next year is in Germany. So it's not surprising that there'd be some pressure on yields in Germany. On the other hand, the brand -- the primary brand in Germany is a stellar performer for us and will be next year as well at slightly lower yields. Sharon Zackfia - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: I seem to recall the U.K. has a long booking window. I don't know if that's the same for Germany. Can you remind us how those booking windows kind of compare to the overall average?

The U.K. had our longest booking window.

But they also sell long cruises. They have -- especially in the winter time, they'll -- they do have a few around-the-world cruises and long cruises...

5 ships. 5 ships going around the world.

So those tend to book way in advance. So the first quarter in the U.K. looks like it's shaping up pretty well right now. It's really the forecasting the second, third and fourth quarter with the closer-in booking pattern, because the cruises you're selling coming into the spring and summer are shorter-duration cruises. It starts to look like them -- like the booking patterns in many of the other businesses including our German business, which is shorter cruises.

And our next question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel, Nicolaus. Steven M. Wieczynski - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: David, I guess this question is probably best for you. I think you said on -- I want to make sure this is right. In terms of the cost assumptions next year, did you say if you strip out the higher insurance cost and the higher pension cost and the development cost, your cost assumption would basically be flat?

Correct. And if you take into account the prior year ship incident costs, we would have been flat year-over-year. Steven M. Wieczynski - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay. And then what happened in the fourth quarter in terms of is there -- were there 1 or 2 things that kind of drove that cost number higher than you guys were expecting?

No. It's all the way across the board in a number of instances. There wasn't anything specific. It's -- as I said before, it's really tough quarter-by-quarter. I mean, if you remember back in the third quarter, we beat the cost guidance we -- and this quarter, we were above. So you got to look at the full year on an annual basis. Steven M. Wieczynski - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay. And then on the onboard side of things, those numbers have actually been trending, I think, a little better than most people have expected, and just maybe how you're thinking about the onboard trends as we move into '13.

Our onboard trend overall around the globe is -- for '13 is very similar to '12. '12, we were up like a little over 2%, and our guidance for '13 is in the similar range with increases in all the major categories. Our operating companies have done a great job with some new initiatives, and so we're expecting those to be driven higher as well. Steven M. Wieczynski - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay. And then I guess last question for -- probably for Micky, I guess. In terms of the -- with the potential changes here in tax law, I mean, how are you guys thinking about deploying your free cash here over the next couple of years back to shareholders? Is it kind of a wait-and-see mentality right now in terms of how you do that? Or can you just give us some color on that?

Well, what we've said over and over is we're going to return free cash flow to shareholders. Until we know what the tax law is going to be, it's hard to really respond. But once we know that, obviously, we'll take it to the board and see what -- if they prefer a different direction or same direction or whatever. But until we see the final package, it's very hard to guess. And so what we've done so far, as you know, is that special dividend at year end, and we're waiting to see what happens in January.

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Conder with Wells Fargo Securities.

Just to revisit your guidance on Europe, you've seen Thomas Cook and TUI basically imply that over the next 6 months, that things are kind of flattish in terms of bookings and pricing. So again, just to summarize -- or to take that guidance versus what you're seeing out of Europe x Costa, is it truly just a capacity issue, that you're adding capacity in what's been your strongest market, Germany? Is that, to boil it down, what we can take away as the difference?

One of the ways -- I don't know enough about how they manage their business at TUI and Thomas Cook. But they can -- I do know historically they can move capacity up or down in order to generate higher prices. So it's not always a good analogy to look at what they're doing and how they're faring in the market from a pricing standpoint versus we're doing -- certainly, we do have increased capacity.

Yes. Generally, when they talk about volumes, they talk about absolute volumes. When we talk about -- and we're talking about capacity adjusted. I don't believe they do that. And so if we just had flat volumes, we'd be in deep concern, especially in Germany where our capacity increases.

Okay, okay. And then to revisit, I guess, some framework on Costa, given the 2 ships that are out of service and then the Concordia top of that, I think in previous calls, you mentioned that $300 million would be sort of a new normalized run rate as far as profitability in Costa. I just wanted to clarify, are you counting in the new ships that Costa will be taking delivery of? It would seem that yes, you lost 2 ships. You sold one, got rid of one and then the Allegra, what happened there. Those weren't that, I can't say, profitable, but had less profitability, higher cost structure clearly than Concordia. But now you're adding -- going to be adding 2 new ships. Could that -- with the new ships, could that new normalized run rate be back closer to the original $400 million?

First of all, I'm not going to comment on your number. I'm not exactly sure where it came from. But we only have one ship under contract for Costa at the end of '14, so the profitability would not be seen until '15. So I mean that's all I can say at this point, that we'd expect Costa's profit to be up in '15, obviously, with at least the capacity increase that they have.

We do believe that Costa -- that over -- from after '13, we continue to believe that Costa will continue to grow its profitability in '14 before the new ship is delivered. So whether it gets back to the numbers that they previously had, that will take a few years. We've always said that, that may take a few years.

Okay. And then a final question relating to the return of capital. It appears again that the company, as you stated in the past, was going to return the excess free cash flow. With the special dividend this year, has there been any further thought regarding coming up with a formularic [ph] portion of that on a go-forward basis?

I think we're now defering to see what comes out of Washington and then we'll make a decision on how we go with that forward.

And our next question comes from the line of Assia Georgieva with Infinity Research.

A couple of questions. First of all, the good close-in bookings that we have seen both in Q3 and Q4, are you expecting that Q1 is not going to be a repeat of that? We are basically a quarter of the way into the quarter, and I would think you're already there seeing those, or you don't see them and therefore guidance is not including any pickup on sort of just near-term pricing.

Yes. We gave you our best guess for first quarter, which included what we expect the close-in bookings to be. We're typically 85% to 95% done at this point for the first quarter, and we're in that range. So it's very hard to read every last booking. Maybe we get a little better or a little worse, but we gave you our best guess for the first quarter.

Which is what we do every -- It's what we do every quarter.

I understand. But it's safe to assume that you expect the continuation of this trend at least to some extent in Q1.

We built into that forecast good, solid bookings for the remaining 10-odd percent of the occupancy for the first quarter.

Okay, okay. And the second question is, based on all the troubles that Europe is in and the fact that shipyards may be a lot more open to discussions in terms of ship cost, have you looked at any newbuilds? Especially the Carnival brand is not going to have anything any time soon and Holland America has been without a newbuild for a while. In 2015, you do have almost 5% capacity coming in, at least based on my figures. So for 2016, '17, is this a good time to actually be speaking to them? Or are you holding off and focusing primarily on returning free cash to shareholders?

Well, we've committed -- we've said now for 5 years that we'll be building 2 to 3 ships a year. That's what we're doing. Whether the yards are doing well or not doing well, whether the price is plus or minus 5% or 10%, it's not going to make us build more or less. I mean, we're going to do it when the returns are right and in a much more conservative way than we've done in the past. We believe that the growth rate in the industry needs to slow, and that's what we're doing.

Okay. So, Micky, if I read you correctly, right now, you'll be holding off to see how the near-term demand picture, meaning over the next 6 months, a year, develops before you actually commit to anything?

I don't want to say that it has anything to do with near-term demand because these are long-term decisions. These are 3- to 4-year delivery and then 30-year assets. So I would say that our strategy hasn't changed. We're talking 2 to 3 ships a year. There's nothing imminent. We've just recently announced a Carnival Cruise Line newbuilding and a Holland newbuilding, and we have nothing imminent right now other than what we recently announced.

And for the years you're talking about, '16, '17 and beyond, we have plenty of time, so we don't have to make decisions today. We can do that at some point in the future.

And our next question comes from the line of Steven Kent with Goldman Sachs.

I think we've exhausted just about everything. But just to be fair to you guys, I mean, it does sound like this is really a short-term booking issue and that given what you're seeing right now, it's hard to really give much guidance beyond what you've provided. So am I reading that correctly? I think you said it earlier, Howard, just about this is the time of year you give the 2013 and this is what you're dealing with at this time.

I mean, it certainly is more challenging to give guidance for 2013 because of the closer-in booking pattern that we're seeing, and it -- so there's sort of a wider span of where this -- how this could all play out than in past years when we had a longer-term -- we had a longer booking pattern. So it's more of a challenge. There's more estimating here, and we think we've factored in reasonable estimates. And as I said before, if we do better, that would be great and if we -- but it does -- there are no guarantees. These are just our best estimates.

Clearly, 3 or 4 weeks into wave season, you have better sense of where you're going, so...

And we have a question from the line of Rick Lyall with John W. Bristol. Richard Ellis Lyall - John W. Bristol & Co., Inc.: I have 2 questions. The first is the fuel efficiency. 5% is a good number. I think it's much stronger than a 2% to 3% kind of number you were guiding to over the last several years, and some of that is itinerary-driven. How much further do you have on the itinerary runway to realize fuel efficiency versus other operational improvements?

It's funny because each itinerary is modeled, you make these decisions based on certain price levels of fuel, and so you're willing to give up x amount of yield for y amount of fuel savings when fuel is at one price and a different decision based on another price. So it's hard to tell. I think our brands were very aggressive this year to get the fuel cost down and took some yield risk to do it, and I'm sure that's baked into their forecasts. And we firmly supported those decisions, and there is some additional risk to it on the yield side. But we believe that profitability-wise, it's the right decision. To go beyond -- a lot of these discussions are longer than 1-year term. And so I believe that we will see significant fuel savings in '14 as well. But whether it will reach this kind of level or not, I don't know. Historically, we've been at the 2% to 3% range a little bit more. And -- anyway, we pushed hard this year and I suspect we will continue to see some savings in '14.

And new ships, more efficient ships will drive some of the metric as well, plus retrofitting ships with new technologies are also drivers. It's a combination of things that are driving the 5%.

About half of it has been -- about half or a little bit more than half next year is itinerary-driven. Richard Ellis Lyall - John W. Bristol & Co., Inc.: All right. Second question, and this is a very long-term question. What do you think the global balance of your capacity should be? How much should be in Asia? How much should be in exotics? How much should be in Europe? How much in the U.S.?

I don't think you really know the answer to that question, because as we all look at the Asian markets as a new market and potentially a strong market for us, it's going to take a while to build it and to get the visibility for cruise vacations in those markets. Over time, look, I mean Asia, it should be no different why Asia is any different than Europe and the U.S. So you can see a relative -- but over the long term, you can see a relative equal balance. But it can take a long time to get there. I'm talking over the...

This is the kind of thing that we're tweaking all the time. We're always working on the margin. I mean yesterday, Carnival Cruise Lines announced a ship being moved from the East Coast to the West Coast because of demand cycles in Canaveral versus Long Beach. So you're looking at this -- management is looking at this stuff every day and looking towards '14 and '15 and where their brands should be relative to where they are now.

But with a 2-year decision time horizon, as Howard said, this will take time to balance out.

And there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to you.

Well, thank you very much for the good questions and the tough questions, and we want to wish -- take this moment to wish everybody a happy and healthy holiday season and new year, and we look forward to seeing you in the new year. All the best. Thank you.

Thanks, everybody. Happy New Year...

Thank you. Happy holidays.

Happy holidays.

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.