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Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, Apr 28, 2017

$35.69

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chairman, President and CEO, Mr. Dan Dinges. Please go ahead. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Thank you, Phil, and good morning to all. Thank you for joining us today for Cabot's first quarter 2017 earnings call. With me today are several members of our executive team. On the call today, I will be referencing slides from the earnings presentation we've posted to our website this morning, which highlight our operational and financial results for the quarter. Before we get started, I would like to move to slide 2 of the presentation, which addresses our forward-looking statements. Please note that we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations this morning. Also, some of our comments may reference non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements and other disclaimers as well as reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in both the earnings release and this presentation. Now let's move to the highlights of the quarter on slide 3. Cabot grew daily production volumes by 7% relative to the prior year quarter, driven primarily by an increase in Marcellus volumes that benefited from a much improved natural gas price environment during the first quarter. Our production levels were right on top at the high end of our production range for the quarter, which resulted in 6% growth sequentially over the fourth quarter of last year. The company pivoted from a net loss of $51 million in the first quarter of last year to a net income of $106 million during the first quarter of this year while increasing EBITDAX by over…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Dan. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Okay. Our first question comes from Michael Glick from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Michael A. Glick - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Good morning. Just on the exploratory plays. I mean, recognizing you're probably hesitant to provide a ton of color given its early-stage nature. But just any high-level thoughts from the types of plays you're chasing in the competitive landscape within the plays? And then are hydrocarbon or geologic – geographic diversification some of the goals here? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Yeah. Primary goal, really one, two and three, is could we find an area to allocate capital that would compete with the return profile we see in our existing portfolio. And therefore, deliver the returns to our shareholders that would exceed where we're investing capital right now. So, we were indifferent regarding the commodity diversity and looking at the areas, potential competitive landscapes and a lot of areas that we're all aware of. Through an exploration effort, we evaluated every basin that is out there. We looked at, actually, areas that were not necessarily in traditional fairway of the key basins. But all-in-all, and balling all of that up, also looking and evaluating all the M&A transactions that have transpired, we did go through some data rooms and get a good feel for valuations out there and that's based to be able to compare to not only did that meet our threshold of full-cycle returns, but also, did it allow for us to enhance our portfolio of projects on a go-forward spend. And as we continue to do our exploration effort, our guys came up with good ideas that we felt justified further expenditure. And so, when you look at our cost of entry and you look at the possible returns that we see in these two projects and you look at the scale that we're comfortable with being able to develop, we are excited about where we've allocated the capital and we're also excited about moving forward with some incremental testing.

Michael A. Glick - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Got you. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: But you're right. I don't want to be coy on the exploration ideas. But as you appreciate in your – the way you catch the question, we're just not going to talk in-depth about specifics of what we're doing. But I do appreciate the question regarding kind of our thought process on what we're trying to achieve.

Michael A. Glick - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Got you. And then just jumping to the Marcellus, what do you think the drivers are of the outperformance of your Q1 wells versus your Gen 4 type curve? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Well, we've seen the enhanced cluster spacing. We've loaded a little bit more in the lateral foot basins. We have tweaked our pump pressures and our pump rates and we feel good about what we're seeing in the results and the early time curve. We are, in fact, have seen now a number of wells off of several different pads come online, short time, Michael, knowing that it is again, just kind of near-term cleanup production, 30, 40, 50 days, some of these. But it is exceeding our 4.4 type curve that we came out with at the beginning of the year. So, all those things are, I think, contributing to just our ability to maybe break a little bit more rock, a little bit more near-wellbore conductivity and we're seeing the results.

Michael A. Glick - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Got you. And then if I could sneak one last quick one in. Just on Atlantic Sunrise, does FERC need a quorum to issue a Notice to Proceed? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: I will turn that to Jeff. Jeffrey W. Hutton - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Michael, the simple answer is no.

Michael A. Glick - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Okay. So, basically, you get the other permits from the states and then the current situation, they could approve it? Jeffrey W. Hutton - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Yes. If you've been following the other projects in Southwest PA, in Ohio, West Virginia, et cetera, the Notices to Proceed are coming out on a regular basis from the staff. Additionally, we've got some partial Notices to Proceed on Atlantic Sunrise for the mainline construction and you see those pop up about every week and they range from compressor station work to looping and other projects on the mainline.

Michael A. Glick - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Got it. Well, thank you very much. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Thank you Michael.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Our next question comes from Phillip Jungwirth from BMO. Please go ahead.

Phillip J. Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Thanks. Good morning. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Hey, Phillip.

Phillip J. Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Wondering if you could talk to the decision to budget $125 million this year for exploration and really just the need for a new core area when, I mean, on the surface, it's a little less obvious with 3,000 Marcellus locations remaining. And then also could you just update us on your view of incremental Marcellus production capacity beyond the 3.7 Bcf a day ex-Constitution? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Okay. I'll leave the second part of that question to Jeff. But in looking at our allocation of an additional $125 million, if you look historically at exploration budget and you assess the amount that we've allocated in the past, the $125 million is frankly right in line with where we've allocated in the past, less than except the last two years. So, there's nothing unique about that level of capital allocation. When we began our effort of looking at our needs in the future to enhance shareholder value, we look at the Marcellus and the Marcellus is such a low capital intensity asset, i.e. the need for the number of drilling rigs and the need for a number of frac crews to grow our production that we knew we were going to generate a significant amount of free cash. As I mentioned, even in the most punitive realizations Cabot has had in its corporate history, in 2016 we still generated free cash and grew that asset. With this infrastructure build-out that is occurring as we speak and looking at the amount of capital necessary to fulfill all of the capacity of those new projects, it again is not going to take near the amount of free cash – near the amount of capital that we're generating and we'll have the free cash. So, the need…

Phillip J. Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

That's really helpful. And there's also, I mean, as you mentioned, a lot of focus on free cash. Wondering if you would expect to be free cash positive in 2018 in a material way after considering the pipeline contributions, increased Marcellus activity, core growth in the second half. Or is 2019 really the inflection point for free cash where you get a full year's benefit of production and lower both pipeline and growth CapEx? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: I'll turn it to Scott for some, a little color. But the short answer is yes, we'll be free cash flow positive in 2018. Scott C. Schroeder - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Hi. And Philip, that is correct. And the magnitude at least right now with current strip pricing, it will be in the same zip code or fairway as what we're expecting around the $250 million, slightly more than the $250 million, even with the expanded program in 2018. So, if you think $250 million to $300 million is material, then the answer is a very definitive yes.

Phillip J. Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Okay. Great. And then last question just in the new slide deck, you point out that Northeast PA indices have been trading at a slight discount to Dom South. I was curious if you have a view on whether this narrowing of price differentials between the two areas is sustainable as you look at pipeline capacity, expected to come on in the next year or two in both Southwest PA, Northeast PA. And if so, is hedging Dom South an option that you guys would consider in the future? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Yeah. I'll make a quick comment, Phillip, but yes, we're extremely positive about the direction of the differentials, what we're seeing right now in the narrowing has taken place. We gave some brief reasons in the teleconference talk about the reasons why we think that phenomenon has taken place. And yes, we do think it is sustainable. And I think as the build-out occurs, I think we're going to see a better hedge market further out, but I'll let Jeff comment on some color. Jeffrey W. Hutton - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Yeah, Phillip. I'm probably even the most optimistic in the group. Not only do I think it's sustainable, I think it's encouraging how the market has reacted to the initial onslaught of overbuilt infrastructure in the Southwest part of the play. To me, the best is yet to come on the – with the local demand. Back to your original question, with the local demand in Northeast PA picking up, I mean, who would have thought even a year ago that we'd be supplying two major power generation facilities in mid-2018. So, we're really optimistic that a lot of flowing gas will reach Atlantic Sunrise as opposed to a lot of the development gas throughout the Northeast region, a lot of projects being kicked around on gas-to-liquids, on methanol to gasoline, the CNG with moving around the different utilities up there. So, very optimistic on the basis and how the optionality is going to be improved with all of the infrastructure.

Phillip J. Jungwirth - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Great. Thanks a lot. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Thanks, Phil.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Please go ahead. Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC: Good morning, Dan, and to the rest of your team there. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Hi. Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC: I apologize if I missed this in your prepared comments but did you give us a sense of the timeline for when you'd be able to give a verdict one way or another on these two exploratory areas? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: No, Charles. I hadn't given any timeline. But it is in our capital budget that we put out that we would be testing both of these ideas in 2017. Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC: Got it. And so, is it the right interpretation then, Dan, that you will be able to give a thumbs up or thumbs down in 2017? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: I think it's plausible that we'll have a lot of data that would give the likelihood that we could. Charles A. Meade - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC: Got it. Thank you. And then if I could ask a question about your appetite to add in the Eagle Ford, it sounds like the way you describe your exploratory plays, that the Eagle Ford doesn't really fit as one of those because it's not greenfield leasing. But there seems like there's a lot of acreage that's coming up trading hands now. And how does that stack up in your capital allocation evaluation? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Yeah. A couple of ways. One, our Eagle Ford has improved as you've seen with the deck we…

Operator

Operator

Okay. Our next question comes from Jeffrey Campbell of Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead

Good morning, and congratulations on all the fine results. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Thank you, Jeffrey.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead

I wanted to ask a little bit different questions about the exploratory tests, if I could. I just want to kind of get an idea of what you're going to do, not trying to ferret out locations and whatnot. I was just wondering, are you going to shoot any seismic prior to drilling? Is there an existing well control in the plays that you're in? And will the first test be vertical or horizontal wells? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Yeah. On all of that, we have seismic. We do plan on shooting additional seismic. We have control points, subsurface control points that we've incorporated into our interpretation. And the initial process would involve a combination of both verticals to gather core data. And then probably a short lateral to evaluate the section a little bit more thoroughly. So, yeah, and all of that is included within our capital program.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead

Okay. That's very helpful. Appreciate it. Your Eagle Ford results, I thought, actually, I mean, it has significantly improved. I was wondering, you've listed three variables – 25% more sand, 58% reduced cluster spacing, and intra-stage diversion where you weren't doing that before. I was just curious, are any one of these variables any more important than the other or is it just sort of a fairly even and cumulative effect? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: I'm going to turn it to Steve Lindeman who runs our Eagle Ford operations. But there is a cumulative impact, but I'll let him articulate. Steven W. Lindeman - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Yeah. I agree with Dan's comment. It's cumulative in our opinion. We're studying each one of those components. Obviously, as we see sand costs increase in the area, we're looking at what gives us the biggest bank for the buck. And so, we're dissecting all of those components so that we spend the completion dollars as efficiently as possible.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead

Okay. And if I could just ask one more on that point. So far, how much is the increased completion design increase the completed cost of the wells? Steven W. Lindeman - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: So far, it has been very nominal for us. Roughly, I don't want to get too granular, let's see, maybe less than $400,000 or so a well. As we go into the latter half of the year, we do and we have budgeted for an increased sand cost and that's where we're going to be further analyzing each one of these components.

Jeffrey L. Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Please go ahead

Right. Understood. Thanks very much. Appreciate it. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Thanks, Jeffrey.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Our next question comes from David Deckelbaum from KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Hi, David.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Just curious on the Marcellus completions now. Have you seen early data for outperformance relative to curve? And then I guess even with the Gen 4 curve, has the choke management philosophy changed at all over the last year or so with the new completions relative to your prior design? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: We are – well, from the last year, not really. We do kind of bring these things on slow. We are able to turn them in line fairly soon after initial completion and we do manage it, but it's not like you might think if it was a high over-pressured reservoir choke management, but we do manage it. And we've been doing that though for over a year.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Okay. And then the last one for me, I think other people have asked plenty of questions, you've given good color on the exploration initiatives. But you mentioned also earlier that you were evaluating a lot of different opportunities including being in data rooms for valuation markers. And I guess, is it fair to say that for most bolt-on deals or deals that you were in data rooms for some larger packages out there that the full-cycle returns would have been sort of prohibitive to pursue that relative to some of the other assets that you have and that maybe the best course of action was to do more greenfield activity right now? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Absolutely. Yeah. When we first began well over a year ago, couple years ago, actually, and as the M&A market intensified and the number of deals increased, we were very proactive in trying to understand valuations and understand the dollars that were going into these projects and wanted to evaluate the full-cycle returns. So, we did gather a significant amount of data to look at that, but we had to approach this in a little bit of a unique way because we did have and do have a company that has really good assets. We were growing this company and anticipate further growth, certainly, once the infrastructure gets in place. We were generating free cash even in the most punitive price realization environments that we have seen in years. So, we didn't want to mess that aspect of what we can deliver to shareholders up and confuse the market on whether or not the investment of that any free cash going into another area for a large M&A transaction, what it would do to a full-cycle return profile once you melt it altogether. And we made the decision, actually fairly early on that, that did not return, again, full-cycle the values to the shareholder that we wanted to see. So, we began, continued in earnest, to look for ideas that we thought we could create as a grassroots effort and that's where we have gone.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Appreciate it all. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: And I'm pleased with a couple things. One, I'm pleased with, one, being able to find ideas in this competitive environment that would fit that portion of our evaluation. And again, with a company of Cabot's size, I'm also pleased that we're going to be able to get to the scale that we need to be able to move forward on these projects also.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Thanks, Dan. And then just the last housekeeping one for me, the $60-some-million or $66 million spent in 1Q on these initiatives, does that largely reflect the cost of entry? Or I guess should we see that coming through – I guess if I was to split up the budget in half, is the remainder of it just for more well specific and planning evaluation-type work or is there still some entry costs coming in in the second quarter? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: The $66 million in the first quarter covers a large percentage of the lease acq [acquisition]. A very large percentage of the lease acquisition. We'll have a little bit more on top of that, but we feel very comfortable that the remaining amount, i.e. the $125 million total budgeted for this effort is going to be adequate to not only cover all of our anticipated lease acq, but also cover the testing phase.

David A. Deckelbaum - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Thanks, Dan, and best of luck. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Thanks, David.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Singer of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you. Good morning. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Hello, Brian. Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: You mentioned in one of your slides that you're still exploring other outlets for Marcellus gas and I wondered if you could give us an update on how that's looking beyond the projects that you've talked about that are going to be hitting the books in the next couple years? What some of those other outlets are and how significant they could be? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Thanks, Brian. I will turn it over to Jeff. Jeffrey W. Hutton - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Yeah, Brian. Thanks for the question. I think earlier, I touched on a few initiatives that we're looking at particularly local demand in the region that we operate. The projects that we're looking at are in a somewhat smaller scale attached to our gathering system. There's a lot of ideas floating around the CNG aspect, moving CNG gas to different markets. Also the small peaking power plants, we've added a couple of those just up here in the last few months. We're looking at several larger scale projects with ethanol developers and methane, the gasoline projects. We're also looking at additional market share and teaming up partnership with market on a couple projects. We have not ruled out another pipeline although pipelines are challenging in this environment but we're continuing down that path with, again, a couple of markets. I think the PennEast project is going to allow for some additional development that we're, I would say, in the midst of finalizing negotiations on additional market share there. So, it's exciting up there. There's still a lot going on, a lot of moving pieces and I still expect the landscape to be quite different a year from now in a positive way than even where we sit today. Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thank you. And one quick one and I apologize if you said this earlier. But with regards to the exploratory areas, can you say whether you are looking for or whether your expectations are for oil, dry gas or liquids-rich gas? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Yeah. What I had indicated, Brian, was that our focus again, one, two, and three was just on a return, that we were indifferent on the commodity. At this stage, it's looking at, like, that our focus is going to be oil at this time though, where these ideas have floated to the top. Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Our next question comes from Karl Chalabala. Please go ahead. Karl J. Chalabala - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Good morning, gentlemen. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Good morning, Karl. How are you? Karl J. Chalabala - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: I'm well. Thank you. There's a view that NIPA growth is somewhat finite near term until these capacity expansions come on line but the guidance raise would indicate production, including Cabot's, can grow prior to that and local pricing likely remains supportive given the current bound storage levels and then, of course, the evacuation on the horizon. Could you sort of discuss what this in-basin market share looks like, Cabot's market share potential near-term particularly next winter? And then how the company is thinking about potentially capturing local market share growth above FTE capacity when the basin debottlenecks? Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Yeah, I will – we do have a slide out there that has – I'm thinking we had a slide in one of our presentations that had the market share and our percentage contribution to each indices, but I'll let Jeff handle the other question. Jeffrey W. Hutton - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Okay. So, it really follows along what we've talked about here on this call and a few areas on the local band (47:37). We've got a very active program on market development up there. We've explored a lot of opportunities. We continue to think that having dependable, reliable reserves and the optionality that we have with our infrastructure up there, our gathering infrastructure, gives us a lot of advantages in moving gas to different markets and during different time periods. We went through a number of expansions on the gathering system with…

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chairman, President and CEO, Mr. Dan Dinges, for closing remarks. Dan O. Dinges - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.: Well, again, thank you, Phil, and thank you, all, for taking the time for the call. When you look at Cabot, you look at the efficiency of our operation, generating significant free cash, you look at the improving macro environment, you look at the new infrastructure that's coming and now, you layer on top a low cost entry into evaluating a couple of ideas that could mean significant value for our shareholders. I know all of our team is very excited about what we have out in front of us. So, stay tuned. Look forward to visiting with you next July. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.