Dan O. Dinges
Analyst · Brian Singer, Goldman Sachs
Thank you, Holly. Appreciate everybody joining us this morning. I have in the room with me today Scott Schroeder; Jeff Hutton, VP Marketing; Steve Lindeman, the VP of Engineering; Matt Reid, our VP of South Region; and Phil Stalnaker, our VP of our North Region. Let me just make an opening comment that the forward-looking statements included in the press release do apply to my comments today. At this time, we have many things to cover, and I'll also try to expand on the press releases that were issued last night. I'll briefly cover the third quarter financial results, a discussion of operations in Pennsylvania, Texas and Oklahoma. Additionally, I will discuss our outlook for the next 15 months for Cabot. But before I get into the details on these topics, let me start with a summary of our impressive results so far year-to-date in 2011 and a quick overview of expectations for '12. In '11, Cabot will grow production in the 40% to 46% range net of asset sales. We will grow reserves 10-plus percent. We will reduce or at a minimum maintain total debt at a level below $1 billion. And this is all generated by a program that encompasses a total rig count of 7, which I think indicates the prolific nature of our portfolio. If we look ahead, 2012, our expectations will be -- and this is off of a larger base, grow production between 45% and 55% or grow reserves again 10-plus percent, maintain or reduce debt without asset sales and again, all generated from a total rig count of 7. I think from the guidance I have seen from industry, Cabot's numbers are unmatched. In fact, I've been in the business for over 30 years and it's rare that I've seen numbers that can demonstrate this amount of growth in a cash flow neutral to cash flow positive program. Cabot's financial report for third quarter had clean earnings of $35 million and with discretionary cash flow of $165 million. This quarter continued the consistent trend of low natural gas price realizations offset by very robust production growth. We expect natural gas prices to remain ranged bound through the remainder of 2011 or until seasonal factors kick in. Additionally, we do anticipate further production advances for the remainder of the year as infrastructure capabilities do become available, though we have not included these in our fourth quarter guidance. In terms of third quarter production, the company posted a 39% growth rate between comparable third quarters reporting 50 Bcf. We continue to enjoy high growth rates from our gas portfolio, but I'm particularly pleased to see the results of our liquids initiative with over 100% growth in oil and related liquid volumes between comparable third quarters. Clearly, this indicate -- this increase comes from our Eagle Ford effort with more wells coming online. We do expect to see an ongoing increase in our liquids production. The guidance last night, we posted new guidance with regard to '12 production. We initiated with a range of growth between 45% and 55%. We provided detail for the first quarter only due to the fact that there are several infrastructure projects in the works with estimated 2012 start dates. As we have seen this year, multifaceted projects at timeframes that can slide. Our expectation is we will have a much clearer, more exact timing on this front by the February call when we could give more specific details. With that said, let me emphasize again, at a minimum, we anticipate 2012 production growth to be in the 45% to 55% range. In terms of 2011 fourth quarter, we maintained our existing guidance with 9 months of actual production having already exceeded last year's record total level. Our expectation for 2011 will be faraway better than any time in our history. This rate also takes into account the sold production and several infrastructure delays. In terms of infrastructure, Laser just came online this week up in PA, and Springville is still expected in mid-December, again, no incremental volumes in 2011 and from Springville are contemplated for us to stay within our guidance. Cost guidance has been updated with no change fourth quarter 2011. However, our first quarter of '12 reflects reduction to operating expense, DD&A and financing at increased to transportation, G&A and maintain owed taxes and exploration expense. The overall impact in '12 is a lowering of cost from previous guidance levels. Obviously, the reduction of our unit cost will yield incremental dollars to the bottom line. We do expect this reduction trend to continue throughout '12. We have maintained a strong preference to deliver a disciplined approach to capital spending. The asset sales 2011 have allowed the expansion of our current year program to about $825 million to $875 million. You'll recall that on the second quarter call, the number would move up from the $600 million mark to around $750 million. The slight increase from there is a result of our drilling efficiencies that have allowed more wells to be drilled in Pennsylvania, Texas and Oklahoma, more completions although still constrained by infrastructure and more leasing activity on key areas and a couple of new ideas. For '12, we expect our program to be in the range of $850 million to $900 million. The planned program range is fully funded at the low end with a $4 gas price and the program generates a cash flow surplus at the high end with a $4.50 gas price. Bottom line, we have positioned ourselves for one of the highest percent production growth of our peer group, while staying within cash flow. In addition, we are able to achieve our goals with just 7 rigs, an excellent indication of our capital efficiency. Our industry has a tendency to significantly outspend cash flow to achieve in some cases a much lower growth rate. No new hedges were added in the third quarter with one 2012 oil hedge added thus far in the fourth quarter. The company has 28 contracts for the remainder of '11 production, 28 contracts for '12, excluding the 5 basis only hedges and 5 contracts for '13. You can evaluate those on our website. Now, let's move to operations. In the north region, our Marcellus result in Susquehanna continue to achieve new milestones and again highlight some of the key records that we have set, new 24-hour production record of 517 million cubic foot per day from only 94 horizontal wells. Cabot's fastest well to produce 3 Bcf took only 223 days. Our fastest well to 4 Bcf, took only 347 days. We're adding drilling efficiencies with our fastest well to TD took just 12.5 days and that was a 3,500-foot lateral. Cabot's area of the Marcellus produced 16 of the top 20 wells in PA during the first half of 2011. During the quarter, we turned in line a total of 18 wells, 17 horizontals and 1 vertical well. The summer production base newly -- new wells was 153 million cubic foot per day but the production was curtailed due to infrastructure restrictions. Currently, we have 4 rigs operating in Susquehanna with an additional new build scheduled to arrive in November. Also, we currently have a total of 497 stages in various phases of completion. 213 of those are being completed, or cleaning up or being -- or waiting to turn in line. 284 of those are waiting to be completed. We continue to make progress of the many infrastructure projects that will ultimately create one of the largest takeaway capacity systems in the United States. This week was initial in-service day of our Laser pipe -- the Laser Pipeline located in the northern area of Cabot's lease hold in Susquehanna, Laser Pipeline is ultimately designed to carry 150 million cubic foot per day at Cabot's production for sale into the Millennium Pipeline system in New York. At Laser, we currently have a total of 4 wells cleaning up into the line. We have been asked about the Marcellus in the northern portion of our acreage. The growth section is slightly shallower and is approximately 240-foot thick versus approximately 350-foot thick where we've been drilling. Keep in mind, the thickness we see in this northern area remains considerably thicker than the Marcellus seen throughout PA. We anticipate keeping a rig active in the north area and adding volumes throughout the fourth quarter. We are trying to have Cabot's Marcellus production into a new marketplace. Next, we are anxiously awaiting the startup of Springville pipeline -- excuse me -- now scheduled for early December. Significant progress has been made to date including the completion of the compression station, significant progress on the major bores and completion of the tap into the Transco pipeline. This is great news as we await the finishing touches on the 24-inch pipeline. Transco, just like Millennium Pipeline, represents new markets for Cabot to immediately access. One new development, we're excited about regarding Springville, which we did release last night is that Cabot and Williams have agreed to terms regarding the unsubscribed capacity on Springville, essentially increasing our position from 300 million cubic foot per day of takeaway to 625 million cubic foot per day. This additional capacity will be available mid-2012. With this as a backdrop, the majority of our 2012 production will be going to markets not served today by Cabot, which we think is an improvement. When you combine the incremental capacity of 325 million per day to the pre-announced plans for our infrastructure, midyear 2012 takeaway now stands at 1.325 Bcf per day. And the year end total takeaway capacity grows to -- from the 1.2 Bcf per day to 1.525 Bcf per day. Let me also add that various other projects and expansions we have discussed previously are all on track for on time completion. As we reported last night with the delays in moving gas, Laser and Transco, we have combined and been combined to deliver of our Marcellus production into one single 24-inch Tennessee pipeline with the gas on gas competition from the surrounding areas pricing for our northeast Marcellus producers have seen downward pressure. While we have heard numerous rumors regarding the price we have received for our gas, Cabot's monthly average price in fourth quarter has remained above $3 per Mcf during the soft period. We are mindful that our pending takeaway projects to diversify our production into multiple downstream markets on new interstate pipelines will relieve some of this tension. Now let's move to the south region. In our Buckhorn area in the Eagle Ford, the company has drilled a total of 24 wells. Each well is 100% working-interest well in Frio and La Salle County. 21 of these wells are on production with 2 wells completing, 1 well waiting on completion and 1 well drilling. The 2 most recently completed wells produced at initial 24-hour rates of 938 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 791 barrels of oil equivalent per day. In our AMI area with EOG, there are 6 wells currently on production in this 18,000-plus-acre area with 3 of these wells drilled and completed in the third quarter and the results are at anticipated levels. Gross production for both areas in the Eagle Ford is over 7,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Cabot intends to drill or participate in 25 to 30 net Eagle Ford wells in 2011. Now moving to Oklahoma. Beaver County where we have our Marmaton operation, Cabot has continued its effort there with participation as planned in 7 non-operated wells with a few more to go in this quarter. Last night, we highlighted the latest 2 wells, and these wells were a significant uptick from our excellent initially operated well. The second Cabot operated well was spud last week, and the well is designed for a 4,000-foot lateral with approximately 16 frac stages. Cabot intends to drill 2 additional operated wells and will participate in 8 to 10 total non-operated well in 2011. Cabot now controls approximately 61,500 plus net acres in the play, which is up from the 54,000 we previously announced. We believe the results that we will see in the Marmaton will provide us very favorable economic returns. In the Heath, we have gathered as much information as we could from a poorly drilled and completed well. We status-ed the well as unsuccessful, and we'll take the information we collected and continue our science work in the area. Science efforts drove our exploration cost above guidance essentially $0.03 for the quarter. Fortunately, we do have long lease terms remaining to work with. Now moving to 2012 plans in Pennsylvania for 2012, Cabot will have on average 5 rigs running. We're planning 70 to 78 Marcellus wells. We also anticipate running 1.5 frac crews for the year. In Texas and Oklahoma, we will remain focused on acreage production. In the Eagle Ford, Cabot will drill or participate in 20 to 30 wells. In the Marmaton, we anticipate that the company will participate in the drilling of between 25 and 30 gross wells with the majority of these wells being operated. Plans call right now for the company to operate 2 rigs in the south, one in the Eagle Ford and one in the Marmaton. We believe our 2012 program will yield greater efficiencies from a dollar invested perspective than our 2011 program. We will demonstrate operational efficiencies in both drilling and completion, along with some moderation in our overall service cost per completed well. Additionally, we continue to improve efficiencies in our vertical integrated operation with our internal construction of locations, roads. We also provide water hauling and handling and frac-ing in other various and sundry things that we have in house. In closing, Cabot's operations remain simple, focus our gas efforts solely in the Marcellus and allocate dollars to the oil window of the Eagle Ford and Marmaton, which will drive our double-digit growth and reserves and production year-over-year, all within an anticipated cash flow neutral program. With that summary, Holly, I'll stop and be happy to answer any questions the group might have.